Search Results (7)

This paper investigates a robust optimal reinsurance and investment problem for an insurance company operating in a Markov-modulated financial market. The insurer’s surplus process is modeled by a diffusion process with jumps, which is correlated with financial risky assets through a common shock structure. The economic regime switches according to a continuous-time Markov chain. To address model uncertainty concerning both diffusion and jump components, we formulate the problem within a robust optimal control framework. By applying the Girsanov theorem for semimartingales, we derive the dynamics of the wealth process under an equivalent martingale measure. We then establish the associated Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation, which constitutes a coupled system of nonlinear second-order integro-differential equations. An explicit form of the relative entropy penalty function is provided to quantify the cost of deviating from the reference model. The theoretical results furnish a foundation for numerical solutions using actor–critic reinforcement learning algorithms. Full article

In this paper, we propose an enhanced model for pricing vulnerable options. Specifically, our model assumes that parameters such as interest rates, jump intensity, and asset value volatility are governed by an observable continuous-time finite-state Markov chain. We take into account European vulnerable options that are exposed to both default risk and rare shocks from underlying and counterparty assets. We also consider stochastic default barriers driven by a regime-switching model and geometric Brownian motion, thus improving upon the assumption of fixed default barriers. The risky assets follow a related jump-diffusion process, whereas the default barriers are influenced by a geometric Brownian motion correlated with the risky assets. Within the framework of our model, we derive an explicit pricing formula for European vulnerable options. Furthermore, we conduct numerical simulations to examine the effects of default barriers and other related parameters on option prices. Our findings indicate that stochastic default barriers increase credit risk, resulting in a decrease in option prices. By considering the aforementioned factors, our research contributes to a better understanding of pricing vulnerable options in the context of counterparty credit risk in over-the-counter trading. Full article

In this paper, we investigate the problem of a dynamic event-triggered robust controller design for flexible robotic arm systems with continuous-time phase-type semi-Markov jump process. In particular, the change in moment of inertia is first considered in the flexible robotic arm system, which is necessary for ensuring the security and stability control of special robots employed under special circumstances, such as surgical robots and assisted-living robots which have strict lightweight requirements. To handle this problem, a semi-Markov chain is conducted to model this process. Furthermore, the dynamic event-triggered scheme is used to solve the problem of limited bandwidth in the network transmission environment, while considering the impact of DoS attacks. With regard to the challenging circumstances and negative elements previously mentioned, the adequate criteria for the existence of the resilient $H_{\infty }$ controller are obtained using the Lyapunov function approach, and the controller gains, Lyapunov parameters and event-triggered parameters are co-designed. Finally, the effectiveness of the designed controller is demonstrated via numerical simulation using the LMI toolbox in MATLAB. Full article

The object under investigation is a controllable linear stochastic differential system affected by some external statistically uncertain piecewise continuous disturbances. They are directly unobservable but assumed to be a continuous-time Markov chain. The problem is to stabilize the system output concerning a quadratic optimality criterion. As is known, the separation theorem holds for the system. The goal of the paper is performance analysis of various numerical schemes applied to the filtering of the external Markov input for system stabilization purposes. The paper briefly presents the theoretical solution to the considered problem of optimal stabilization for systems with the Markov jump external disturbances: the conditions providing the separation theorem, the equations of optimal control, and the ones defining the Wonham filter. It also contains a complex of the stable numerical approximations of the filter, designed for the time-discretized observations, along with their accuracy characteristics. The approximations of orders $\frac{1}{2}$, 1, and 2 along with the classical Euler–Maruyama scheme are chosen for the comparison of the Wonham filter numerical realization. The filtering estimates are used in the practical stabilization of the various linear systems of the second order. The numerical experiments confirm the significant influence of the filtering precision on the stabilization performance and superiority of the proposed stable schemes of numerical filtering. Full article

This paper is aimed at developing a stochastic volatility model that is useful to explain the dynamics of the returns of gold, silver, and platinum during the period 1994–2019. To this end, it is assumed that the precious metal returns are driven by fractional Brownian motions, combined with Poisson processes and modulated by continuous-time homogeneous Markov chains. The calibration is carried out by estimating the Jump Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (Jump-GARCH) and Markov regime-switching models of each precious metal, as well as computing their Hurst exponents. The novelty in this research is the use of non-linear, non-normal, multi-factor, time-varying risk stochastic models, useful for an investors’ decision-making process when they intend to include precious metals in their portfolios as safe-haven assets. The main empirical results are as follows: (1) all metals stay in low volatility most of the time and have long memories, which means that past returns have an effect on current and future returns; (2) silver and platinum have the largest jump sizes; (3) silver’s negative jumps have the highest intensity; and (4) silver reacts more than gold and platinum, and it is also the most volatile, having the highest probability of intensive jumps. Gold is the least volatile, as its percentage of jumps is the lowest and the intensity of its jumps is lower than that of the other two metals. Finally, a set of recommendations is provided for the decision-making process of an average investor looking to buy and sell precious metals. Full article

The reaction counts chemical master equation (CME) is a high-dimensional variant of the classical population counts CME. In the reaction counts CME setting, we count the reactions which have fired over time rather than monitoring the population state over time. Since a reaction either fires or not, the reaction counts CME transitions are only forward stepping. Typically there are more reactions in a system than species, this results in the reaction counts CME being higher in dimension, but simpler in dynamics. In this work, we revisit the reaction counts CME framework and its key theoretical results. Then we will extend the theory by exploiting the reactions counts’ forward stepping feature, by decomposing the state space into independent continuous-time Markov chains (CTMC). We extend the reaction counts CME theory to derive analytical forms and estimates for the CTMC decomposition of the CME. This new theory gives new insights into solving hitting times-, rare events-, and a priori domain construction problems. Full article

We introduce a bivariate Markov chain counting process with contagion for modelling the clustering arrival of loss claims with delayed settlement for an insurance company. It is a general continuous-time model framework that also has the potential to be applicable to modelling the clustering arrival of events, such as jumps, bankruptcies, crises and catastrophes in finance, insurance and economics with both internal contagion risk and external common risk. Key distributional properties, such as the moments and probability generating functions, for this process are derived. Some special cases with explicit results and numerical examples and the motivation for further actuarial applications are also discussed. The model can be considered a generalisation of the dynamic contagion process introduced by Dassios and Zhao (2011). Full article