Connectedness is the key to modern risk measurement and management. This study investigates the international connectedness of crude oil prices and explores its time-varying characteristics based on a connectedness measurement framework using daily i...
This study aims to test the effects of changes in international crude oil prices on changes in crude oil and hydropower use from 1965 to 2016. We suggest a cointegration relationship between the consumption of coal, crude oil, and hydropower and the...
In this study, we conducted an in-depth analysis of the dynamic cointegration relationship between international crude oil, natural gas, and coal price indices from 2009 to 2023, revealing the changes and differences in the cointegration relationship...
This paper employs an asymmetric error-correction model (AECM), and uses monthly data on wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel products in China and international crude oil prices from February 2006 to October 2013 to examine whether China’s gasoli...
Crude oil and grain, as two pivotal global commodities, exhibit significant price co-movement that profoundly affects national economic stability and food security. From the perspective of systems theory, the energy and grain markets do not exist in...
In order to address a series of issues, including energy security, global warming, and environmental protection, China has ranked first in global renewable investment for the seventh consecutive year. However, developing a renewable energy industry r...
The international crude oil market plays an important role in the global economy. This paper uses a variable time window and the polynomial decomposition method to define the trend term of time series and proposes a crude oil price forecasting method...
The commercial and financial attributes of oil have significantly changed the evolution characteristics of prices and returns of the international crude oil market. Using monthly data from April 2003 to October 2020, this paper identifies dynamic cha...
China is a global leader in methanol production volume, while coal is a major feedstock. The country also has the world’s largest commercial coal-to-methanol operations. Coal-based methanol is used widely within China and is a competitive substitute...
Due to multiple properties, the international crude oil price is influenced by various and complex interrelated factors from different determinants in different periods. However, the previous studies on crude oil price fluctuation with economic polic...
This paper examines the dynamic relationship between crude oil prices and the U.S. exchange rate within the structural break detection context. Based on monthly data from January 1996 to April 2019, this paper identifies structural breaks in movement...
The rapid fluctuations in global crude oil prices are one of the important factors affecting both the sustainable development and the green transformation of the global economy. To accurately measure the risks of crude oil prices, in the context of b...
The paper aims to assess the relationship between Azerbaijani and Kazakhstani exchange rates and crude oil prices volatility. The study applies the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. The paper concentrates on Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, th...
With the continuous increase of China’s foreign-trade dependence on crude oil and the accelerating integration of the international crude oil market and the Chinese finance market, the spillover effect of international oil price fluctuation on...
Presently, the total supply of crude oil is sufficient, but short-term supply and demand imbalances and regional imbalances still exist. The effect of crude oil supply security and price impact cannot be ignored. As the world’s largest oil impo...
Movements in palm oil price give important signals to various stakeholders of the palm oil industry in Malaysia. Thus, understanding external and internal factors that may affect the palm oil price is vital to the industry players for sustainability...
The outbreak of the COVID-19 disease has gravely shaken the world economy. The economies of many countries have come under severe strain; Nigeria’s petroleum industry has been particularly affected. This has threatened the countries’ budg...
Using the OLS model with different quantiles of GPR, we aim to examine the impact of GPR, EPU, and VIX on monthly international crude oil prices, including WTI, BRENT, and DUBAI prices, while differentiating the impact on different levels of risks. A...
This paper constructs an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with oil to investigate the transmission mechanism and impact effects of oil price fluctuations driven by different factors on China’s macroeconomy using...
Crude oil price forecasting is an important research area in the international bulk commodity market. However, as risk factors diversify, price movements exhibit more complex nonlinear behavior. Hence, this study provides a comprehensive analysis of...
The main purpose of the paper is to analyze the conditional correlations, conditional covariances, and co-volatility spillovers between international crude oil and associated financial markets. The prices of oil and its interactions with financial ma...
Recently, the world has experienced striking economic and policy changes, and subsequent uncertainties have impacts on dairy trade price fluctuations. The Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) methodology was established in this paper to better underst...
This study was conducted within the context of providing an improved understanding of New Mexico’s food, energy, water systems (FEWS) and their behavior under variable climate and socioeconomic conditions. The goal of this paper was to characte...
In the context of “new normal” economy and frequent “haze”, the strategy of energy conservation and emission reduction aiming to lower costs and reduce pollution is currently still a major strategic direction in China and the world, and will remain s...
The Chinese refined oil pricing reform in 2013 has brought its refined oil price to be more aligned with the international oil price, helping to mitigate prior distorted pricing mechanisms. Its impact on the correlation, tail risks, and spillover eff...
Using a diagonal BEKK model, this paper estimates a spillover effect from the international crude oil market to the Korean stock market. Empirical results suggest that shocks and volatility in Dubai oil prices are significantly transmitted into twent...
This study explores the impact of international relations on China’s energy security and supply/demand dynamics, specifically focusing on new energy sources and technological advancements. Given China’s status as the world’s largest...
In this paper, we investigate the effects of oil price shocks on the production and price level in five emerging countries through comparison with the United States, using a two-block structural VAR model of the global crude oil market proposed by Ki...
The paper postulates that enhanced informational efficiency and signal processing capacity, which have characterized the evolution of commodity markets’ architecture during the last two decades, have rendered commodity prices more robust with r...
The recent price crash of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil futures contract, which occurred on 20 April 2020, has caused history-writing movements of relative prices. For instance, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) experienced a neg...
This study examines the response of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in local currency to the COVID-19 pandemic using monthly data (March 2020–February 2022), comparatively for six European countries. We have introduced a model of multivariate ad...
This study examines the dynamic interrelationship and volatility spillover among stainability stock indices (SSIs), international crude oil prices and major stock returns of European oil-importing countries (UK, Germany, France, Italy, Switzerland an...
Indonesia’s dependence on fossil fuel exports, particularly coal and crude oil, presents a dual challenge: sustaining economic growth while addressing rising CO2 emissions. Despite significant attention to domestic energy consumption, the envir...
High-frequency fluctuations in the international crude oil market have led to multilevel characteristics in China’s domestic refined oil pricing mechanism. To address the poor fitting performance of single deep learning models on oil price data...
31 August 2022
Revealing the effect mechanism of carbon price drivers is the basis to establish the pricing mechanism of carbon emission exchange, which also promotes the development of the carbon emission exchange market and can reduce the investment risk. Based o...
To obtain the price return and price volatility spillovers between renewable energy stocks, technology stocks, oil futures and carbon allowances under different investment horizons, this paper employs a frequency-dependent method to study the dynamic...
The dairy sector in the European Union (EU) has experienced policy changes and market shocks recently. Using the global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model, this paper explores regional market integration, the feedback between market shocks and price...
Rising population, combined with declining home food production, in Arab nations has resulted in increased food imports that intensifies their dependence on international markets for vital food supplies. These nations face challenges in achieving foo...
A petroleum refinery heavily depends on crude oil as its main feedstock to produce liquid fuels and chemicals. In the long term, this unyielding dependency is threatened by the depletion of the crude oil reserve. However, in the short term, its price...
We extend the widely-studied Heterogeneous Autoregressive Realized Volatility (HAR-RV) model to examine the out-of-sample forecasting value of climate-risk factors for the realized volatility of movements of the prices of crude oil, heating oil, and...
As crude oil price reach a new high, the need for developing alternate fuels has become acute. Alternate fuels should be economically attractive in order to compete with currently used fossil fuels. In this work, biodiesel (ethyl ester) was prepared...
The purpose of this study is to analyze the impacts of some prominent macroeconomic factors on the Turkish Stock Market index, BIST-100 (Borsa Istanbul-100). For centuries, and mostly since the 20th century, stock markets are at the heart of economie...
This paper conducts a review on theoretical and empirical findings on the increasingly popular measure of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) in economics and finance. Moreover, an empirical investigation takes place in order to find the impact that TPU e...
31 December 2018
In recent years, the study of the factors affecting the carbon trading price plays an important role in promoting the carbon trading markets and the sustainable development of green economy. However, due to the short establishment time of China&rsquo...
The main objective of this paper is to analyze model settings of the International Energy Security Risk Index developed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. The study was performed using stepwise regression, principal component analysis, and Promax obliq...
This study analyzes the crude oil supply in 2030 and 2050, comparing it with demand scenarios from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the International Energy Agency. It focuses on the oil under production or development as of today...
The increasing requirement for distillates, accompanied by higher quantities of heavy crude oil in world production, has positioned gas oil hydrocracking as one of the most significant processes in refineries. In the petrochemical industry, hydrocrac...
The South China Sea is rich in hydrocarbon resources and has been exploited for decades by countries around it. However, little is known about the hydrocarbon exploitation (HE) activities in the South China Sea in recent years, especially its intensi...
The energy security of each country is one of the main factors of its proper functioning. Currently, in the era of problems related to energy security resulting from, among other things, the war in Ukraine, this topic is particularly important. This...