Search Results (82)

The ICARIA Horizon Europe risk-assessment framework and web-based Decision Support System (DSS) were applied in the Southern Aegean Region (Greece) to quantify single- and multi-hazard climate risks (wildfire, heatwave, extreme wind) and to assess adaptation under historical and future climates (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5). The study integrates high-resolution hazard layers (5 km Fire Weather Index, downscaled temperature extremes), satellite-derived land surface temperature (30 m LST for building exposure), asset-level exposure and vulnerability, and probabilistic event-tree-based multi-hazard modelling, and was tested with stakeholders in Rhodes and Syros. Results show increases in wildfire and ecological multi-hazard risk: ecological high-risk (categories 4–5) areas expand by ~10–15%, and economic high-risk zones by ~5–8%. On Rhodes, very high fire-weather days (FWI > 70) rise under SSP5–8.5, and the central mountains shift into the highest ecological risk (category 5). A multi-hazard indicator (FWI > 80, Tmax > 30 °C, wind > 10.8 m/s) identifies persistent future hotspots. The 2023 Rhodes wildfire (~17,600 acres burned; ~€1.29 M electricity, ~€400 k water damage, ~2500 livestock and ~60,000 olive trees lost; ~19,000 evacuees) supports model projections. Adaptation substantially reduces risk. Vegetation substitution (e.g., Ceratonia siliqua, low-flammability stands) cuts category-5 ecological areas by ~30–32% and high-risk economic areas by ~20% (single hazard) and ~28–34% (multi-hazard). On Syros, retrofitting 1980–2010 buildings reduces top-risk classes (4–5) by ~25–35% and lowers thermal-stress exposure. Stakeholder trials found the DSS user-friendly and useful for comparing business-as-usual versus adaptation scenarios and for strategic planning, while highlighting needs for broader hazard coverage and continued support. Full article

Climate change has significantly affected the geographical distribution and richness patterns of plant species worldwide. Pinus is a major component of many temperate and montane forests in the Northern Hemisphere and is important for carbon storage, climatic buffering and timber production. Here, we utilized the MaxEnt model and integrated global occurrence records of 113 Pinus species, predicting climatic envelopes and diversity distribution patterns under three emission scenarios for the 2050s and 2070s, while also identifying diversity hotspots, high-decline regions, and conservation gaps. As global overheating and linked climatic variations intensify, climatically suitable areas for Pinus are projected to shift poleward. Using projected climatic envelope contraction as a screening criterion, 7.96%–44.25% of species qualified as climate-vulnerable across scenarios. Additionally, Pinus demonstrates high species richness in North America, the Mediterranean region, and mid-latitude mountainous regions of East Asia. Our predictions reveal that species richness distribution will be notably influenced by climate change, with impacts gradually intensifying as climate change progresses. Fortunately, the current coverage rate of protected areas in diversity hotspots exceeds 92.31%, and the conservation gaps primarily occur in Mexico. It is anticipated that over 86.46% of hotspot areas will remain protected in the future. However, new conservation gaps may arise in eastern North America and southeastern Europe; these regions should be prioritized in future conservation planning. Our research enhances current understanding of how species might respond to the challenges of climate change while also providing practical guidance for priority conservation planning targeting both biodiversity hotspots and high-decline regions. Full article

Understanding how species richness is distributed across space is a central goal of macroecology and biogeography. The gecko genus Hemidactylus ranks among the most speciose and broadly distributed of all squamate genera, with species spanning tropical and subtropical environments on most continents. Yet the large-scale structure of its diversity has rarely been examined at a global scale. Here we assembled georeferenced occurrence data for the genus from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF Access data is 14 March 2026) and, following cleaning and quality control, retained 143,858 records covering 157 currently recognized species (approximately 79% of the genus) to characterize broad-scale biodiversity patterns. Our analyses addressed the latitudinal diversity gradient, the distribution of species range sizes, continental richness, spatial clustering of diversity, and regional beta diversity. Richness declined steadily from the tropics toward the poles, producing a pronounced latitudinal diversity gradient (Pearson r = −0.71, p < 0.001). A generalized additive model captured a strong non-linear association between latitude and richness (deviance explained = 98.1%), consistent with tropical regions acting as principal centers of diversity. Range-size distributions were markedly right-skewed, with the majority of species restricted to comparatively small areas; however, these estimates co-varied strongly with per-species sampling effort (r = 0.90) and warrant cautious interpretation. We found only a weak, marginally significant association between range size and latitudinal midpoint, offering little support for Rapoport’s rule in the genus. At the continental scale, Hemidactylus diversity was overwhelmingly concentrated in Afro-Asian tropical regions (Asia, 93 species; Africa, 66), whereas Europe and Oceania supported few species (four each). Spatial analyses indicated significant autocorrelation in richness (Moran’s I = 0.56, p < 0.001) and well-defined diversity hotspots in East Africa, the Indian subcontinent, and Southeast Asia, and regional beta diversity was high (Jaccard dissimilarity up to 0.97), reflecting pronounced faunal turnover among continents. Full article

Introduction: The circum-Mediterranean region is a global biodiversity hotspot, hosting a highly distinctive freshwater fauna with a high degree of endemism and conservation concern. However, these ecosystems are increasingly threatened by biological invasions, particularly by non-native fish species, which represent a major driver of biodiversity loss. Objective: This study aims to compile a comprehensive and updated inventory of non-native inland fish species across the circum-Mediterranean region and to identify the main taxonomic, biogeographical, and socio-environmental drivers shaping their distribution. Methodology: We conducted an extensive review of the scientific literature, online databases (including EASIN, GISD, and CABI), and technical reports to compile records of non-native fish species across inland and transitional waters of Mediterranean-climate basins. Analyses focused on species composition, taxonomic representativeness, introduction pathways, native regions, and the relationship between species richness and selected environmental and socio-economic variables. Results: A total of 151 non-native fish species were recorded across the study area. Italy, Spain, Bosnia and Herzegovina, France, and Croatia exhibited the highest numbers of established species. Taxonomic representation was uneven, with Salmoniformes and Esociformes overrepresented among established non-native species, while Siluriformes and Characiformes were underrepresented. Most introductions originated from Europe, Asia, and North America, primarily through intentional releases and escape events. Non-native species richness was positively correlated with gross domestic product, precipitation, and the number of dams, highlighting the role of economic development and habitat modification in facilitating invasions. Conclusions: Biological invasions by non-native fishes are widespread across the Mediterranean basin and are strongly driven by human activities and environmental conditions. The high invasion levels observed in this biodiversity hotspot pose a significant threat to endemic freshwater faunas. These findings underscore the need for coordinated transnational management strategies, stricter regulation of introduction pathways, and prioritization of high-risk species to mitigate further impacts. Full article

Urban soil contamination by potentially toxic elements (PTEs) is a recognized health concern in densely populated urban environments. Through a systematic meta-analysis of 91 peer-reviewed studies (2000–2025) reporting 12,174 sampling sites in capital and core cities, we characterized regional patterns in the spatiotemporal dynamics and health risks of eight PTEs across two well-represented continental subsets (Asia, k = 18–36 per element; Europe, k = 11–23 per element) with comparative reference to the Americas, Africa, and Oceania. Given the uneven geographic distribution of qualifying primary studies, continental comparisons should be interpreted as hypothesis-generating: Asia (k = 18–36 per element) and Europe (k = 11–23 per element) provide the statistically robust core of the synthesis, while results for the Americas (k = 3–7 for several elements), Africa (k = 4–15), and Oceania (k = 2) are presented as illustrative rather than statistically representative. Pooled concentrations followed Zn (138.59) > Pb (56.97) > Cr (54.26) > Cu (47.00) > Ni (31.94) > As (8.56) > Hg (3.13) > Cd (1.23) mg·kg⁻¹. Within the well-represented Asian and European subsets, Asian cities showed the most severe enrichment of As, Cd, Cr, and Hg (I_geo > 4 in hotspots such as Kathmandu I_geo (Cd) = 7.06 and Jinan I_geo (Hg) = 5.27), whereas European centres exhibited substantial legacy Pb accumulation (pooled mean 87.69 mg·kg⁻¹). A reproducible pollution gradient was identified across functional zones: industrial > transportation ≥ residential > commercial > agricultural > urban green areas. The deterministic non-carcinogenic Hazard Index (HI = 1.49) for children in Asia exceeded the safe threshold (HI > 1), driven primarily by As and Cr exposure via incidental soil-and-dust ingestion. Monte Carlo probabilistic assessment (N = 10,000) confirmed elevated cumulative non-carcinogenic risk at the median of the exposure distribution for children in the data-rich Asian (P50 = 1.55; P(HI > 1) = 81.9%) and European (P50 = 1.28; P(HI > 1) = 69.8%) subsets, with adults in both subsets remaining well below the safety threshold (P(HI > 1) = 0.0%). Temporal analysis revealed a decoupling between economic growth and PTE accumulation in long-established cities, together with an inverse Ni–population correlation indicative of strategic resource allocation. For Asian capital and core cities, where the evidence base is strongest (k = 18–36 per element), the present synthesis supports further investigation of risk-based, child-centric soil management as a public-health priority. For European cities (k = 11–23 per element), the same direction of risk is indicated but should be confirmed in regionally focused syntheses. Policy considerations for under-represented regions should await expansion of the primary monitoring base. Full article

Abandoned mine methane (AMM) emissions represent a significant public safety and environmental hazard in post-industrial urban areas. Uncontrolled subsurface gas migration may lead to explosive accumulations in confined spaces, human exposure, infrastructure damage, and additional greenhouse gas emissions. This study develops an integrated risk assessment framework for AMM in urban environments, combining quantitative analysis of field monitoring data with semi-quantitative probability–consequence risk matrices and multi-factor evaluation. Methane concentrations were measured at 41 monitoring points during three campaigns (August–September 2024). A total of 42 influencing factors were identified and classified into seven categories (geological, mining, hydrogeological, meteorological, anthropogenic, biological, and special phenomena). Exceedance probabilities of critical thresholds were estimated with 95% confidence intervals. Consequence weights were derived using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) based on a five-expert panel (CR = 0.043). The framework was applied to the urban area of Lupeni, Romania, where methane concentrations of up to 54% vol. were measured during borehole screening measurements (subsurface probe points). Elevated concentrations were detected four days after commissioning of a new gas pipeline. Gas chromatographic analysis excluded pipeline leakage and confirmed a mining-related source. Results indicate a localized critical risk (R = 25 on a 1–25 scale) in hotspot P2, with a 95% confidence interval for the probability of exceeding the 3% vol. alert threshold of [0.885–1.00], justifying immediate mitigation through controlled drainage. Post-intervention monitoring showed a reduction to instrumentally undetectable levels by February 2025. The study demonstrates that administrative mine closure does not eliminate residual methane risk and proposes a complete decision-support algorithm (URBAN-MINE-RISK) for similar urban settings. The applicability of structural reliability methods (e.g., FORM) is discussed as a future research direction. The methodology is transferable to other post-mining regions in Central and Eastern Europe. Full article

Natural resource management and area-based conservation are increasingly recognised as outcomes of complex interactions between ecological conditions and social systems, shaped by local knowledge, governance arrangements, and environmental pressures. The Social-Ecological Systems Framework (SESF), developed by Elinor Ostrom, provides a comprehensive framework to analyse these dynamics; however, most applications remain context-specific, limiting cross-site comparability. This study introduces the Conservation and Human Use Index (CHUI), a standardised diagnostic tool that operationalizes SESF principles for comparative analysis across conservation-important areas. CHUI comprises 134 qualitative questions structured across four equally weighted dimensions: (i) Natural Values and Ecosystem Services, (ii) Threats and Pressures, (iii) Governance, and (iv) Social Perceptions. Using an ordinal 0–3 scale with a “Not Applicable” option, the Index enables consistent, flexible application through both desk-based assessments and participatory processes. It generates aggregate and disaggregated outputs that help identify pressure hotspots, governance gaps, and conservation-use synergies. CHUI’s primary innovation lies in translating SESF into a pragmatic and participatory instrument that supports real-world decision-making. Rather than replacing detailed ecological or socio-economic assessments, it functions as a collaborative diagnostic compass to guide targeted investigation and intervention. Its participatory design fosters shared learning, transparency, and co-production of context-specific management pathways, supporting adaptive stewardship and community empowerment. Developed within the Horizon Europe PRO-COAST project and tested across ten European coastal case studies, CHUI advances both the operationalization of SESF and the practice of inclusive, adaptive conservation management. Full article

The liner shipping industry is thriving in the low-carbon transition, and optimizing operational strategies for liquefied natural gas (LNG) dual-fuel ships has become a research hotspot. This research examines the impacts of the carbon tax, emission control area (ECA) policies, fuel price discounts and methane slip rate on fuel management strategies. Firstly, to reduce liner operating costs and adhere to ECA policies, this study develops a basic optimization model. Further, the model is extended to take into account the impact of fuel price discounts. Secondly, by linearizing multiple nonlinear terms, the operational strategies are obtained. Thirdly, taking a real vessel sailing between the Far East and Northwest Europe as a case study, this study identifies the ports for LNG and very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) bunkering, determines the bunkering amounts and calculates the planned speeds. Furthermore, sensitivity analyses are conducted on fuel price difference, carbon tax rate and methane slip rate. Results show that fuel price difference, carbon tax rate, methane slip rate and fuel price discount exert a significant impact on ship operational decisions. To ensure the effectiveness of maritime decarbonization regulations, authorities should monitor ship engines with high methane slip rates. This study offers important references for shipping enterprises to meet ship emission policies and simultaneously cut operational costs. Full article

Hieracium L. s. str. is a taxonomically critical genus of perennial herbaceous plants widely distributed across temperate regions of Europe, Asia, and North America. In Italy, its diversity is mainly concentrated in the Alps and northern Apennines, whereas southern Italy hosts only a limited number of relict taxa. Recent floristic surveys conducted in the Pollino National Park (southern Italy) revealed the presence of five Hieracium taxa, which were subsequently subjected to critical taxonomic evaluation. Detailed morphological analyses, supported by original herbarium comparisons and multivariate morphometric analyses, resulted in the description of a new species, here named H. petrocastellanum, the confirmation of H. pallescens subsp. tephrochlorum in the Italian flora after nearly 130 years from its discovery, and the first record for the Pollino area of H. symphytifolium, previously considered endemic to the Madonie Mountains (north-central Sicily), as well as H. pellitum subsp. pellitum and H. caesioides subsp. caesioides. The new species, Hieracium petrocastellanum, differs in having basal leaves with cuneate bases, only 0–1 cauline leaves, and bracts with sparse simple hairs and moderately dense glandular hairs. Ecological information and data on taxonomic relationships are also provided. The conservation status is assessed for H. petrocastellanum, H. pallescens subsp. tephrochlorum, and H. symphytifolium. An analytical key is presented to distinguish the new species from its closest relatives. These results confirm the Pollino National Park as a biodiversity hotspot and improve current knowledge of Hieracium. Full article

Primula vulgaris Huds., one of the 33 Primula L. species native to Europe, occurs across diverse habitats, including the biodiversity hotspot of the Prespa Lake region (NW Greece). Building on previous phytochemical studies, the present work provides the first detailed characterization of flavonoids from the aerial parts of the species growing wild in the area. Using classical chromatographic separation methods combined with spectrometric techniques, seven metabolites were isolated and structurally elucidated from the dichloromethane and methanol extracts. These included flavone (1), 2′-methoxyflavone (2), 3′-methoxyflavone (3), 3′-hydroxy-4′,5′-dimethoxyflavone (4), kaempferol-3-O-β-glucopyranosyl-(1→2)-β-glucopyranosyl-(1→6)-β-glucopyranoside (6), 3′-hydroxyflavone-4′-O-β-glucopyranoside (7) and 5,6,2′,3′,6′-pentamethoxyflavone (5), which was reported for the first time in this species. Additionally, the total phenolic content (TPC) of the methanol extract was determined using the Folin–Ciocalteu method, demonstrating 46.46 ± 2.48 mg GAE/g extract, while through the DPPH radical scavenging assay, it expressed moderate activity. Overall, these results provide novel insights into the flavonoid composition of Greek P. vulgaris and support its potential for further pharmacological investigations and herbal applications. Full article

Effective implementation of silvopastoralism, a key Nature-Based Solution for Europe’s climate goals, is hindered by a lack of decision-support tools clarifying trade-offs between efficiency and extent of carbon sequestration. To address this, we developed a multi-objective scenario analysis (4064 scenarios) to identify optimal strategies for silvopastoral expansion across the EU27 Mediterranean bioregion. We found an inverse relationship defining a clear trade-off: scenarios achieving the highest mean sequestration (up to 2.5 Mg CO₂ ha⁻¹ year⁻¹) are spatially limited, whereas those maximising total gains (approaching 10⁷ Mg CO₂ year⁻¹ in total) do so by incorporating vast areas, lowering mean rates. This trade-off is formalised by a Pareto front, from which we defined a best-balanced optimal scenario and three policy regimes (conservative, balanced, expansive). Progressing across the front involved shifting from converting primarily shrubby and sparsely vegetated lands to incorporating grasslands and mixed agro-systems. At the NUTS2 level, Spain and Greece emerged as hotspots. Notably, converting arable land was not a primary contributor to carbon gains, as the marginal carbon benefit on these productive soils is lower than on marginal lands due to their higher baseline soil carbon levels, indicating that large-scale implementation can focus on marginal lands to avoid conflicts with food security. While subject to uncertainties of the underlying land-use and carbon models, this analysis demonstrates that our framework enables policymakers to select spatially explicit strategies aligned with specific budget or sequestration goals. These insights can inform CAP eco-schemes and national LULUCF strategies. The resulting maps and code are freely available. Full article

The “Chiffchaff complex” is a group of species with several similar subspecies, whose post-breeding distribution remains poorly understood, particularly in southern Europe. This study combines morphological and molecular approaches to investigate the subspecific composition and phenological patterns of Chiffchaffs captured in eastern Sicily. A total of 380 individuals were biometrically measured, with particular focus on wing length of P8 feather, and 81 individuals were genetically analyzed using ND2 mitochondrial marker. Morphological analysis highlighted significant variation in P8 length between phenological groups. Assuming that a turnover of individuals from different origins may occur in the study area, genetic investigation was deemed necessary to further investigate this high morphological diversity. Phylogenetic analysis revealed high intraspecific genetic diversity and identified two subspecies in the study area: P. c. collybita (73%) and P. c. abietinus (27%). These findings genetically confirm for the first time the presence of P. c. abietinus in Sicily and suggest a complex pattern of seasonal co-occurrence between populations. This work contributes to the understanding of Chiffchaff migration ecology and underlines the importance of integrating ringing data with molecular tools in Mediterranean biodiversity hotspots. Full article

Wildfires increasingly threaten Mediterranean landscapes, particularly in regions like Attica, Greece, where urban sprawl, agricultural abandonment, and climatic conditions heighten the risk at the Wildland–Urban Interface (WUI). The Mediterranean basin, recognized as one of the global wildfire “hotspots”, has witnessed a steady increase in both fire severity, frequency, and burned area during the last four decades, a trend amplified by urban sprawl and agricultural land abandonment. This study represents the first integrated, region-wide mapping of the WUI and associated wildfire risk in Attica, the most densely urbanized area in Greece and one of the most fire-exposed metropolitan regions in Southern Europe, utilizing advanced techniques such as Earth Observation and GIS analysis. For this purpose, various geospatial datasets were coupled, including Copernicus High Resolution Layers, multi-decadal Landsat fire history archive, UCR-STAR building footprints, and CORINE Land Cover, among others. The research delineated WUI zones into 40 interface and intermix categories, revealing that WUI encompasses 26.29% of Attica, predominantly in shrub-dominated areas. An analysis of fire frequency history from 1983 to 2023 indicated that approximately 102,366 hectares have been affected by wildfires. Risk assessments indicate that moderate hazard zones are most prevalent, covering 36.85% of the region, while approximately 25% of Attica is classified as moderate, high, or very high susceptibility zones. The integrated risk map indicates that 37.74% of Attica is situated in high- and very high-risk zones, principally concentrated in peri-urban areas. These findings underscore Attica’s designation as one of the most fire-prone metropolitan regions in Southern Europe and offer a viable methodology for enhancing land-use planning, fuel management, and civil protection efforts. Full article

Against the backdrop of intensifying global climate change and human activities, the increasing frequency and evolution of major wildfire events pose severe challenges to global disaster prevention and mitigation systems. Systematically understanding their disaster characteristics, spatiotemporal patterns, and societal response efficacy is an urgent scientific requirement for formulating effective coping strategies. This study constructed a comprehensive database covering 137 major global wildfire events from 2018 to 2024, with data sourced from GFED, EM-DAT, and official national reports. Utilizing a synthesis of methods including descriptive statistics, spatiotemporal clustering analysis, K-means pattern recognition, and non-parametric tests, a multi-dimensional quantitative analysis was conducted on disaster characteristics, evolutionary trends, casualty patterns, and policy effectiveness. Despite potential reporting biases and heterogeneous data standards across countries, the analysis reveals the following: (1) All key wildfire metrics (e.g., burned area, casualties, evacuation scale) exhibited extreme right-skewed distributions, indicating that a minority of catastrophic events dominate the overall risk profile; (2) Global wildfire hotspots demonstrated dynamic expansion, spreading from traditional regions in North America and Australia to emerging areas such as Mediterranean Europe, Chile, and the Russian Far East, forming three significant spatiotemporal clusters; (3) Four distinct casualty patterns were identified: “High-Lethality”, “Large-Scale Evacuation”, “Routine-Control”, and “Ecological-Destruction”, revealing the differentiated formation mechanisms under various disaster scenarios; (4) A substantial gap of nearly 65 times in emergency evacuation efficiency—defined as the ratio of evacuated individuals to total casualties—was observed between developed and developing countries, highlighting a significant “development gap” in emergency management capabilities. This study finds evidence of increasing extremization, expansion, and polarization in global wildfire risk within the 2018–2024 event sample. The conclusions emphasize that future risk management must shift from addressing “normal” events to prioritizing preparedness for “catastrophic” scenarios and adopt refined strategies based on casualty patterns. Simultaneously, the international community needs to focus on bridging the emergency response capability gap between nations to collectively build a more resilient global wildfire governance system. Full article

As climate change increases the frequency and unpredictability of natural hazards, adapting critical infrastructure is crucial for long-term resilience. Among these hazards, embankment fires pose a growing threat to railway systems, particularly under rising temperatures and prolonged drought conditions. As part of the Horizon Europe project NATURE-DEMO, this study helps identify fire-prone rail segments and explore nature-based solutions, such as vegetation barriers, that can reduce ignition risk and enhance infrastructure resilience. In a case study, we analysed the risk of embankment fires for a section of the German railway network in detail. Based on an embankment-fire hazard indication map available for the entire German railway network, five hotspots within the study area were identified. Embankments with high fire susceptibility occur in both rural and urban areas, covering 1.1% of the study area. On the basis of published research on technical and nature-based solutions for reducing embankment fire susceptibility, we derived site-specific recommendations for the appropriate implementation of mitigation measures. Full article