Search Results (865)

This study presents an approach based on machine learning (ML) techniques to analyze the relationship between emergency room (ER) admissions for cardiorespiratory diseases (CRDs) and environmental factors. The aim of this study is the development and verification of an interpretable machine learning framework applied to environmental and health data to assess the relationship between environmental factors and daily emergency room admissions for cardiorespiratory diseases. The model’s predictive accuracy was evaluated by comparing simulated values with observed historical data, thereby identifying the most influential environmental variables and critical exposure thresholds. This approach supports public health surveillance and healthcare resource management optimization. The health and environmental data, collected through meteorological sensors and air quality monitoring stations, cover eleven years (2013–2023), including meteorological conditions and atmospheric pollutants. Four ML models were compared, with XGBoost showing the best predictive performance (R² = 0.901; MAE = 0.047). A 10-fold cross-validation was applied to improve reliability. Global model interpretability was assessed using SHAP, which highlighted that high levels of carbon monoxide and relative humidity, low atmospheric pressure, and mild temperatures are associated with an increase in CRD cases. The local analysis was further refined using LIME, whose application—followed by experimental verification—allowed for the identification of the critical thresholds beyond which a significant increase in the risk of hospital admission (above the 95th percentile) was observed: CO > 0.84 mg/m³, P_atm ≤ 1006.81 hPa, Tavg ≤ 17.19 °C, and RH > 70.33%. The findings emphasize the potential of interpretable ML models as tools for both epidemiological analysis and prevention support, offering a valuable framework for integrating environmental surveillance with healthcare planning. Full article

Governments worldwide have set ambitious targets for decarbonising energy grids, driving the need for increased renewable energy generation and improved energy efficiency. One key strategy for achieving this involves enhanced energy management in buildings, often using machine learning-based forecasting methods. However, such methods typically rely on extensive historical data collected via costly sensor installations—resources that many buildings lack. This study introduces a novel forecasting approach that eliminates the need for large-scale historical datasets or expensive sensors. By integrating custom-built models with existing energy data, the method applies calculated weighting through a distance matrix and accuracy coefficients to generate reliable forecasts. It uses readily available building attributes—such as floor area and functional type to position a new building within the matrix of existing data. A Euclidian distance matrix, akin to a K-nearest neighbour algorithm, determines the appropriate neural network(s) to utilise. These findings are benchmarked against a consolidated, more sophisticated neural network and a long short-term memory neural network. The dataset has hourly granularity over a 24 h horizon. The model consists of five bespoke neural networks, demonstrating the superiority of other models with a 610 s training duration, uses 500 kB of storage, achieves an R² of 0.9, and attains an average forecasting accuracy of 85.12% in predicting the energy consumption of the five buildings studied. This approach not only contributes to the specific goal of a fully decarbonized energy grid by 2050 but also establishes a robust and efficient methodology for maintaining standards with existing benchmarks while providing more control over the method. Full article

In 1961, Los Angeles experienced the disastrous Bel Air fire, which swept through an affluent neighborhood situated in a hilly, WUI (wildland–urban interface) location. In January 2025, the city was devastated again by a nearly-simultaneous series of wildfires, the most severe of which took place close to the 1961 fire location. Disastrous WUI fires are, unfortunately, an anticipatable occurrence in many U.S. cities. A number of issues identified earlier remained the same. Some were largely solved, while other new ones have emerged. The paper examines the Palisades Fire of January, 2025 in this context. In the intervening decades, the population of the city grew substantially. But firefighting resources did not keep pace. Very likely, the single-most-important factor in causing the 2025 disasters is that the Los Angeles Fire Department operational vehicle count shrank to 1/5 of what it was in 1961 (per capita). This is likely why critical delays were experienced in the initial attack on the Palisades Fire, leading to a runaway conflagration. Two other crucial issues were the management of vegetation and the adequacy of water supplies. On both these issues, the Palisades Fire revealed serious problems. A problem which arose after 1961 involves the unintended consequences of environmental legislation. Communities will continue to be devastated by wildfires unless adequate vegetation management is accomplished. Yet, environmental regulations are focused on maintaining the status quo, often making vegetation management difficult or ineffective. House survival during a wildfire is strongly affected by whether good vegetation management practices and good building practices (“ignition-resistant” construction features) have been implemented. The latter have not been mandatory for housing built prior to 2008, and the vast majority of houses in the area predated such building code requirements. California has also suffered from a highly counterproductive stance on insurance regulation. This has resulted in some residents not having property insurance, due to the inhospitable operating conditions for insurance firms in the state. Because of the historical precedent, the details in this paper focus on the Palisades Fire; however, many of the lessons learned apply to managing fires in all WUI areas. Policy recommendations are offered, which could help to reduce the potential for future conflagrations. Full article

Food loss and waste from the European Union’s dairy supply chain, particularly in the management of fresh milk, imposes significant environmental burdens. This study demonstrates that implementing Radio Frequency Identification (RFID)-enabled digital decision-support tools can substantially reduce these impacts across the region. A cradle-to-grave life cycle assessment (LCA) was used to quantify both the additional environmental burdens from RFID (tag production, usage, and disposal) and the avoided burdens due to reduced milk losses in the farm, processing, and distribution stages. Within the EU’s fresh milk supply chain, the implementation of digital tools could result in annual net reductions of up to 80,000 tonnes of CO₂-equivalent greenhouse gas emissions, 81,083 tonnes of PM_2.5-equivalent particulate matter, 84,326 tonnes of land use–related carbon deficit, and 80,000 cubic meters of freshwater-equivalent consumption. Spatial analysis indicates that regions with historically high spoilage rates, particularly in Southern and Eastern Europe, see the greatest benefits from RFID enabled digital-decision support tools. These environmental savings are most pronounced during the peak months of milk production. Overall, the study demonstrates that despite the environmental footprint of RFID systems, their integration into the EU’S dairy supply chain enhances transparency, reduces waste, and improves resource efficiency—supporting their strategic value. Full article

Heritage Building Information Modeling (HBIM) has emerged as a key tool in advancing heritage conservation and sustainable management. Preceding reviews had typically concentrated on specific technical aspects but did not provide sufficient bibliometric analysis. This study aims to integrate existing HBIM research to identify key research patterns, emerging trends, and forecast future directions. A total of 1516 documents were initially retrieved from the Web of Science Core Collection using targeted search terms. Following a relevance screening, 1175 documents were related to the topic. CiteSpace 6.4.R1, VOSviewer 1.6.20, and Bibliometrix 4.1, three bibliometric tools, were employed to conduct both quantitative and qualitative assessments. The results show three historical phases of HBIM, identify core journals, influential authors, and leading regions, and extract six major keyword clusters: risk assessment, data acquisition, semantic annotation, digital twins, and energy and equipment management. Nine co-citation clusters further outline the foundational literature in the field. The results highlight growing scholarly interest in workflow integration and digital twin applications. Future projections emphasize the transformative potential of artificial intelligence in HBIM, while also recognizing critical implementation barriers, particularly in developing countries and resource-constrained contexts. This study provides a comprehensive and systematic framework for HBIM research, offering valuable insights for scholars, practitioners, and policymakers involved in heritage preservation and digital management. Full article

As the cradle of Jiangnan culture, Suzhou is home to a dense concentration of historical architectural heritage that is currently facing existential threats from rapid urbanization. This study aims to develop a spatial heritage corridor network for conservation and sustainable utilization. Using kernel density estimation, this study identifies 15 kernel density groups, along with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), to pinpoint clusters of historical architectural heritage and assess the involved resistance factors. Current Effective Conductance (CEC) theory is further applied to model spatial flow relationships among heritage nodes, leading to the delineation of 27 heritage corridors and revealing a spatial structure characterized by one primary core, one secondary core, and multiple peripheral zones. Based on 15 source points, six cultural relics-themed routes are proposed—three land-based and three waterfront routes—connecting historical sites, towns, and ecological areas. The study further recommends a resource management strategy centered on departmental collaboration, digital integration, and community co-governance. By integrating historical architectural types, settlement forms, and ecological patterns, the research builds a multi-scale narrative and experience system that addresses fragmentation while improving coordination and sustainability. This framework delivers practical advice on heritage conservation and cultural tourism development in Suzhou and the broader Jiangnan region. Full article

The research is grounded in the perspective of urban historical landscape (HUL), exploring the connections between cultural heritage and a broader urban context, as well as the general public and communities. It also focuses on small cultural heritage sites (SCHSs) in urban areas that have been overlooked in previous studies. By integrating various types of data, an assessment framework and methodology comprising six dimensions and 24 indicators were established and applied to the empirical research of 30 SCHSs in the Beijing section of the Grand Canal. The empirical research demonstrated the operability, effectiveness, and flexibility of the HUL assessment for SCHSs. The research findings are as follows. (1) The method provides differentiated recommendations for the formulation of tailored policies and planning management schemes based on heritage types, conservation levels, and the urban districts in which they are located. (2) The comprehensive quality of the open spaces where SCHSs are situated is critical for the cognition of the general public and community residents. (3) The overall conservation of the community areas containing SCHSs is highly significant, and the linkage between social development levels and cultural resources enhances public cognition of the SCHSs. (4) Cluster analysis offers guidance for the refined improvement of different SCHSs. The research aims to establish an action-oriented assessment framework, with a dimensional framework responding to the requirements of HULs and allowing for indicator flexibility. This study is significant for supporting the conservation and utilization of SCHSs in urban areas and for promoting their sustainable development. Full article

This study projects future Residential Water Use (RWU) under climate change scenarios using a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) model that quantifies the relationship between observed temperatures and RWU. Eighteen Global Climate Models (GCMs) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5 (SSP5–8.5) scenario were used to assess the uncertainties across these models. The findings indicate that RWU in Republic of Korea (ROK) is closely linked to temperature changes, with significant increases projected in the distant future (F3), especially during summer. Under the SSP5–8.5 scenario, RWU is expected to increase by up to 10.3% by the late 21st century (2081–2100) compared to the historical baseline. The model achieved a root mean square error (RMSE) of 11,400 m³/month, demonstrating reliable predictive performance. Unlike conventional deep learning models, the BNN provides probabilistic forecasts with uncertainty bounds, enhancing its suitability for climate-sensitive resource planning. This study also projects inflows to the Paldang Dam, revealing an overall increase in future water availability. However, winter water security may decline due to decreased inflow and minimal changes in RWU. This study suggests enhancing summer precipitation storage while considering downstream flood risks. Demand management strategies are recommended for addressing future winter water security challenges. This research highlights the importance of projecting RWU under climate change scenarios and emphasizes the need for strategic water resource management in ROK. Full article

To accurately assess the water quality, ecosystem status, distribution of large benthic organisms, and ecological restoration under human intervention, an analysis of benthic organisms on Caofeidian in September and November 2023 and January and May of the following year was conducted in this work. By performing CCA (canonical correspondence analysis) and cluster and correlation coefficient (Pearson) analyses, the temporal variation characteristics of benthic abundance, dominant species, community structure and biodiversity were analyzed. A total of 79 species of macro-benthic animals were found in four months, including 32 species of polychaetes, cnidarians, 1 species of Nemertean, 19 species of crustaceans, and 24 species of molluscs. The use of conventional grab-type mud collectors revealed that the Musculus senhousei dominated the survey (Y > 0.02). While only a small number of Ruditapes philippinarum were collected from bottom-dwelling species, a certain number of bottom-dwelling species (Ruditapes philippinarum and Scapharca subcrenata) were also collected during the trawl survey. Additionally, a significant population of Rapana venosa was found in the area. It is speculated that the dual effects of predation and competition are likely the primary reasons for the relatively low abundance of bottom-dwelling species. The density and biomass of macro-benthos were consistent over time, which was the highest in May, the second highest in January, and the lowest in September and November. The main environmental factors affecting the large benthic communities in the surveyed sea areas were pH, DO, NO₂⁻-N, T, SAL and PO₄³⁻-P. Combined with historical data, it was found that although the environmental condition in the Caofeidian sea area has improved, the Musculus senhousei has been dominant. In addition, the abundance of other species is much less than that of the Musculus senhousei, and the diversity of the benthic community is still reduced. Our work provides valuable data support for the management and improvement of bottom Marine pasture and promotes the transformation of Marine resources from resource plunder to a sustainable resource. Full article

Accurate precipitation forecasting remains a critical challenge due to the nonlinear and multifactorial nature of rainfall dynamics. This is particularly important in arid regions like Tamanghasset, where precipitation is the primary driver of agricultural viability and water resource management. This study evaluates the performance of several time series models for monthly rainfall prediction, including the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), Exponential Smoothing State Space Model (ETS), Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess with ETS (STL-ETS), Trigonometric Box–Cox transform with ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components (TBATS), and neural network autoregressive (NNAR) models. Historical monthly precipitation data from 1953 to 2020 were used to train and test the models, with lagged observations serving as input features. Among the approaches considered, the NNAR model exhibited superior performance, as indicated by uncorrelated residuals and enhanced forecast accuracy. This suggests that NNAR effectively captures the nonlinear temporal patterns inherent in the precipitation series. Based on the best-performing model, rainfall was projected for the year 2021, providing actionable insights for regional hydrological and agricultural planning. The results highlight the relevance of neural network-based time series models for climate forecasting in data-scarce, climate-sensitive regions. Full article

The implementation of Digital Twins (DTs) in hospitality facilities represents a significant opportunity to optimize front-end services, enhancing guest experience and operational efficiency. This paper proposes an ontology-driven approach for DTs in hotel reception areas, focusing on integrating IoT devices, real-time data processing, and service optimization. By modeling interactions between guests, receptionists, and hotel management systems, DTs enhance resource allocation, predictive maintenance, and customer satisfaction. Simulations and historical data analysis enable forecasting demand fluctuations and optimizing check-in/check-out processes. This research provides a structured framework for DT applications in hospitality, validated through scenario-based simulations, showing significant improvements in check-in time and guest satisfaction. Validation was conducted through scenario-based simulations reflecting real-world operational challenges, such as guest surges, room assignment, and staff workload balancing. Metrics including check-in time, guest satisfaction index, task completion rates, and prediction accuracy were used to evaluate performance. Simulations were grounded in historical hotel data and modeled typical peak-period dynamics to ensure realism. Results demonstrated a 25–35% reduction in check-in time, a 20% improvement in staff efficiency, and significant enhancements in guest satisfaction, underscoring the practical value of the proposed framework in real hospitality settings. Full article

Geo-historical information deduced from geo-iconographical resources, derived from extensive research and the selection of cartographies and historical documents, enabled the investigation of the natural and anthropic transformations of the perifluvial area of the Po River in the Emilia-Romagna region (Italy). This territory, significant in terms of its historical, cultural, and environmental contexts, for centuries has been the scene of flood events. These have characterised the morphological and dynamic variability in the riverbed and relative floodplain. The close relationship between man and river is well documented: the interference induced by anthropic activity has alternated with the sometimes-damaging effects of river dynamics. The attention given to the fluvial region of the Po River and its main tributaries, in a peculiar lowland sector near Parma, is critical for understanding spatial–temporal changes contributing to current geo-hydrological risks. A GIS project outlined the geomorphological aspects that define the considerable variations in the course of the Po River (involving width reductions of up to 66% and length changes of up to 14%) and its confluences from the 16th to the 21st century. Knowledge of anthropic modifications is essential as a tool within land-use planning and enhancing community awareness in risk-mitigation activities and strategic management. This study highlights the importance of interdisciplinary geo-historical studies that are complementary in order to decode river dynamics in damaging flood events and latent hazards in an altered river environment. Full article

Accurate reservoir outflow simulation is crucial for water resource management. However, traditional machine learning-based simulation methods have not sufficiently considered the physical constraints of reservoir operation, which may lead to unrealistic issues such as negative outflows or water levels exceeding the reservoir’s own limitations. This study integrates physical constraints into the random forest (RF) model using the Sigmoid function, constructing a physics-constrained random forest model (PC-RF) for cascade reservoir outflow simulation. A stratified sampling strategy based on hydrological year types is used to create the training and validation datasets. The coefficient of determination (R²) and root mean square error (RMSE) are used to evaluate the model’s performance for medium- to long-term predictions of reservoir outflows on a 10-day time scale. Additionally, the mean decrease in impurity method is used to assess the importance of input features, thereby enhancing the model’s interpretability. The application the Yalong River cascade reservoir indicates that (1) compared to traditional RF, the PC-RF achieved significant breakthroughs, with an increase of 37.13% in the R² and a decrease of 60.04% in the RMSE when simulating outflows from the Lianghekou Reservoir, with all reservoirs maintaining an R² above 0.95, with no instances of unrealistic outcomes; (2) PC-RF effectively integrated historical operational patterns with top three features being previous period outflow, current inflow, and previous period inflow, providing interpretable insights for operational decision-making. The PC-RF model demonstrates high accuracy and practical potential in cascade reservoir outflow simulation, providing valuable applications for cascade reservoir management and water resource optimization. Full article

Snow cover, as a critical component of the cryosphere, serves as a vital water resource for arid regions in Northwest China. The Qilian Mountains (QLM), situated on the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, function as an important ecological barrier and water conservation area in western China. This study presents the first high-resolution historical snow cover product developed specifically for the QLM, utilizing a multi-level snow classification algorithm tailored to the complex topography of the region. By employing Landsat satellite data from 1986–2024, we constructed a comprehensive 39-year snow cover dataset at a resolution of 30 m. A dual adaptive cloud masking strategy and spatial interpolation techniques were employed to effectively address cloud contamination and data gaps prevalent in mountainous regions. The spatiotemporal characteristics and driving mechanisms of snow cover changes in the QLM were systematically analyzed using Sen–Theil trend analysis and Mann–Kendall tests. The results reveal the following: (1) The mean annual snow cover extent in the QLM was 15.73% during 1986–2024, exhibiting a slight declining trend (−0.046% yr⁻¹), though statistically insignificant (p = 0.215); (2) The snowline showed significant upward migration, with mean elevation and minimum elevation rising at rates of 3.98 m yr⁻¹ and 2.81 m yr⁻¹, respectively; (3) Elevation-dependent variations were observed, with significant snow cover decline in high-altitude (>5000 m) and low-altitude (2000–3500 m) regions, while mid-altitude areas remained relatively stable; (4) Comparison with MODIS data demonstrated good correlation (r = 0.828) but revealed systematic differences (RMSE = 12.88%), with MODIS showing underestimation in mountainous environments (Bias: −8.06%). This study elucidates the complex response mechanisms of the QLM snow system under global warming, providing scientific evidence for regional water resource management and climate change adaptation strategies. Full article

The hydrological processes of agricultural fields during the fallow season in east-central Mississippi remain poorly understood, due to the region’s unique rainfall patterns. This study utilized long-term rainfall records from 1924 to 2023 to evaluate runoff characteristics and the runoff response to various rainfall events during fallow seasons in Mississippi by applying the DRAINMOD model. The analysis revealed that the average rainfall during the fallow season was 760 mm over the past 100 years, accounting for 65% of the annual total. In dry, normal, and wet fallow seasons, the average rainfall was 528, 751, and 1010 mm, respectively, corresponding to runoff of 227, 388, and 602 mm. Runoff frequency increased with wetter weather conditions, rising from 16 events in dry seasons to 23 in normal seasons and 30 in wet seasons. Over the past century, runoff dynamics were predominantly regulated by high-intensity rainfall events during the fallow season. Very heavy rainfall events (mean frequency = 11 events) generated 215 mm of runoff and accounted for 53% of the total runoff, while extreme rainfall events (mean frequency = 2 events) contributed 135 mm of runoff, making up 34% of the total runoff. Water table depth played a critical role in shaping spring runoff dynamics. As the water table decreased from 46 mm in March to 80 mm in May, the soil pore space increased from 5 mm in March to 14 mm in May. This increased soil infiltration and water storage capacity, leading to a steady decline in runoff. The study found that the mean daily runoff frequency dropped from 13.5% in March to 7.6% in May, while monthly runoff decreased from 74 to 38 mm. Increased extreme rainfall (R95p) in April contributed over 45% of the total runoff and resulted in the highest daily mean runoff of 20 mm, compared to 18 mm in March and 16 mm in May. The results from this century-long historical weather data could be used to enhance field-scale water resource management, predict potential runoff risks, and optimize planting windows in the humid east-central Mississippi. Full article