Search Results (67)

Over the past four decades, Wadi Fatimah in western Saudi Arabia has undergone significant environmental changes that have contributed to desertification. High-resolution spatial and temporal analyses are essential for monitoring the extent of desertification and understanding its driving factors. This study aimed to assess the spatial distribution of desertification in Wadi Fatimah using satellite and climate data. Landsat imagery from 1984 to 2022 was employed to derive land surface temperature (LST) and assess vegetation trends using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Climate variables, including precipitation and evapotranspiration (ET), were sourced from the gridded TerraClimate dataset (1980–2022). LST estimates were validated using MOD11A2 products (2001–2022), while TerraClimate precipitation data were evaluated against observations from four local rain gauge stations: Wadi Muharam, Al-Seal Al-Kabeer, Makkah, and Baharah Al-Jadeedah. A Desertification Index (DI) was developed based on four variables: NDVI, LST, precipitation, and ET. Five regression models—ridge, lasso, elastic net, polynomial regression (degree 2), and random forest regression—were applied to evaluate the predictive capacity of these variables in explaining desertification dynamics. Among these, Random Forest and Polynomial Regression demonstrated superior predictive performance. The classification accuracy of the desertification map showed high overall accuracy and a strong Kappa coefficient. Results revealed extensive land degradation in the central and lower sub-basins of Wadi Fatimah, driven by both climatic stressors and anthropogenic pressures. LST exhibited a clear upward trend between 1984 and 2022, especially in the lower sub-basin. Precipitation and ET analysis confirmed the region’s arid climate, characterized by limited rainfall and high ET, which exacerbate vegetation stress and soil moisture deficits. Validation of LST with MOD11A2 data showed reasonable agreement, with RMSE values ranging from 2 °C to 6 °C and strong correlation coefficients across most years. Precipitation validation revealed low correlation at Al-Seal Al-Kabeer, moderate at Baharah Al-Jadeedah, and high correlations at Wadi Muharam and Makkah stations. These results highlight the importance of developing robust validation methods for gridded climate datasets, especially in data-sparse regions. Promoting sustainable land management and implementing targeted interventions are vital to mitigating desertification and preserving the environmental integrity of Wadi Fatimah. Full article

High-quality precipitation data are vital for hydrological research. In regions with sparse observation stations, reliable gridded data cannot be obtained through interpolation, while the coarse resolution of satellite products fails to meet the demands of small watershed studies. Downscaling satellite-based precipitation products offers an effective solution for generating high-resolution data in such areas. Among these techniques, machine learning plays a pivotal role, with performance varying according to surface conditions and algorithmic mechanisms. Using the Qinghai Lake Basin as a case study and rain gauge observations as reference data, this research conducted a systematic comparative evaluation of nine machine learning algorithms (ANN, CLSTM, GAN, KNN, MSRLapN, RF, SVM, Transformer, and XGBoost) for downscaling IMERG precipitation products from 0.1° to 0.01° resolution. The primary objective was to identify the optimal downscaling method for the Qinghai Lake Basin by assessing spatial accuracy, seasonal performance, and residual sensitivity. Seven metrics were employed for assessment: correlation coefficient (CC), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), coefficient of determination (R²), standard deviation ratio (Sigma Ratio), Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE), and bias. On the annual scale, KNN delivered the best overall results (KGE = 0.70, RMSE = 17.09 mm, Bias = −3.31 mm), followed by Transformer (KGE = 0.69, RMSE = 17.20 mm, Bias = −3.24 mm). During the cold season, KNN and ANN both performed well (KGE = 0.63; RMSE = 5.97 mm and 6.09 mm; Bias = −1.76 mm and −1.75 mm), with SVM ranking next (KGE = 0.63, RMSE = 6.11 mm, Bias = −1.63 mm). In the warm season, Transformer yielded the best results (KGE = 0.74, RMSE = 23.35 mm, Bias = −1.03 mm), followed closely by ANN and KNN (KGE = 0.74; RMSE = 23.38 mm and 23.57 mm; Bias = −1.08 mm and −1.03 mm, respectively). GAN consistently underperformed across all temporal scales, with annual, cold-season, and warm-season KGE values of 0.61, 0.43, and 0.68, respectively—worse than the original 0.1° IMERG product. Considering the ability to represent spatial precipitation gradients, KNN emerged as the most suitable method for IMERG downscaling in the Qinghai Lake Basin. Residual analysis revealed error concentrations along the lakeshore, and model performance declined when residuals exceeded specific thresholds—highlighting the need to account for model-specific sensitivity during correction. SHAP analysis based on ANN, KNN, SVM, and Transformer identified NDVI (0.218), longitude (0.214), and latitude (0.208) as the three most influential predictors. While longitude and latitude affect vapor transport by representing land–sea positioning, NDVI is heavily influenced by anthropogenic activities and sandy surfaces in lakeshore regions, thus limiting prediction accuracy in these areas. This work delivers a high-resolution (0.01°) precipitation dataset for the Qinghai Lake Basin and provides a practical basis for selecting suitable downscaling methods in similar environments. Full article

In the Himalayan regions of complex terrains, such as Himachal Pradesh, the occurrence of extreme rainfall events (EREs) has been increasing, triggering landslides and flash floods. Investigating the dynamics and precipitation characteristics and improving the prediction of such events are crucial and could play a vital role in contributing to sustainable development in the region. This study employs a high-resolution numerical weather prediction framework, the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model, to deeply investigate an ERE which occurred between 8 July and 13 July 2023. This ERE caused catastrophic floods in the Mandi and Kullu districts of Himachal Pradesh. The WRF model was configured with nested domains of 12 km and 4 km horizontal grid resolutions, and the results were compared with global high-resolution precipitation products and the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis dataset. The selected case study was amplified by the synoptic scale features associated with the position and intensity of the monsoon trough, including mesoscale processes like orographic lifting. The presence of a western disturbance and the heavy moisture transported from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal both intensified this event. The model has effectively captured the spatial distribution and large-scale dynamics of the phenomenon, demonstrating the importance of high-resolution numerical modeling in accurately simulating localized EREs. Statistical evaluation revealed that the WRF model overestimated extreme rainfall intensity, with the root mean square error reaching 17.33 mm, particularly during the convective peak phase. The findings shed light on the value of high-resolution modeling in capturing localized EREs and offer suggestions for enhancing disaster management and flood forecasting. Full article

Satellite-based precipitation products (SPPs) are essential for climate monitoring, especially in regions with sparse observational data. This study compares the performance of the latest version (V07B) and its predecessor (V06B) of the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) across South America and the adjacent oceans. It focuses on evaluating their accuracy under different precipitation regimes in Brazil using 22 years of IMERG Final data (2000–2021), aggregated into seasonal totals (summer, autumn, winter, and spring). The observations used for the evaluation were organized into 0.1° × 0.1° grid points to match IMERG’s spatial resolution. The analysis was restricted to grid points containing at least one rain gauge, and in cases where multiple gauges were present within a grid point the average value was used. The evaluation metrics included the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and categorical indices. The results reveal that while both versions effectively capture major precipitation systems such as the mesoscale convective system (MCS), South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), and Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), significant discrepancies emerge in high-rainfall areas, particularly over oceans and tropical zones. Over the continent, however, these discrepancies are reduced due to the correction of observations in the final version of IMERG. A comprehensive analysis of the RMSE across Brazil, both as a whole and within the five analyzed regions, without differentiating precipitation classes, demonstrates that version V07B effectively reduces errors compared to version V06B. The analysis of statistical indices across Brazil’s five regions highlights distinct performance patterns between IMERG versions V06B and V07B, driven by regional and seasonal precipitation characteristics. V07B demonstrates a superior performance, particularly in regions with intense rainfall (R1, R2, and R5), showing a reduced RMSE and improved categorical indices. These advancements are linked to V07B’s reduced overestimation in cold-top cloud regions, although both versions consistently overestimate at rain/no-rain thresholds and for light rainfall. However, in regions prone to underestimation, such as the interior of the Northeastern region (R3) during winter, and the northeastern coast (R4) during winter and spring, V07B exacerbates these issues, highlighting challenges in accurately estimating precipitation from warm-top cloud systems. This study concludes that while V07B exhibits notable advancements, further enhancements are needed to improve accuracy in underperforming regions, specifically those influenced by warm-cloud precipitation systems. Full article

The growing concerns about floods have highlighted the need for accurate and detailed precipitation data as extreme precipitation occurrences can lead to catastrophic floods, resulting in significant economic losses and casualties. Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM IMERG) is a commonly used high-resolution gridded precipitation dataset and is recognized as trustworthy alternative sources of precipitation data. The aim of this study is to comprehensively evaluate the performance of GPM IMERG Early (IMERG-E), Late (IMERG-L), and Final Run (IMERG-F) in precipitation estimation and their capability in detecting extreme rainfall indices over southwestern Iran during 2001–2020. The Asfezari gridded precipitation data, which are developed using a dense of ground-based observation, were utilized as the reference dataset. The findings indicate that IMERG-F performs reasonably well in capturing many extreme precipitation events (defined by various indices). All three products showed a better performance in capturing fixed and non-threshold precipitation indices across the study region. The findings also revealed that both IMERG-E and IMERG-L have problems in rainfall estimation over elevated areas showing values of overestimations. Examining the effect of land cover type on the accuracy of the precipitation products suggests that both IMERG-E and IMERG-L show large and highly unrealistic overestimations over inland water bodies and permanent wetlands. The results of the current study highlight the potential of IMERG-F as a valuable source of data for precipitation monitoring in the region. Full article

This study analyzed the applicability of five long-term precipitation datasets in the Hang-Jia-Hu Plain of eastern China based on meteorological observation data. The accuracy of each dataset at different time scales (yearly, monthly) was analyzed. Besides, their spatiotemporal distributions and differences in precipitation event frequency were also compared. The results indicate that the high-resolution (1 day, 1 km) and long-term (1961–2019) gridded dataset for temperature and precipitation across China (HRLT) exhibited the best overall performance at the annual scale, while the long-term, gauge-based gridded precipitation dataset for the Chinese mainland (CHM_PRE) performed the best at the monthly scale. The dataset of monthly precipitation with a resolution of 1 km in China from 1960 to 2020 (HHU) and the China Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD) tend to overestimate the local precipitation amounts, while the other three products are characterized by an underestimation. The mean result of the five datasets indicates a slight, statistically insignificant rise in precipitation, by 4.19 mm annually, with an overall multi-year average of 1303.28 mm. The analysis of the five datasets successfully captures the spatial precipitation patterns across the Hang-Jia-Hu Plain, characterized by higher precipitation levels in the southwest and lower in the northeast. Although the interannual variability displays general consistency, there are significant discrepancies in the interannual growth rates and the spatial distribution of significance across different regions. This study can provide a reference for the accuracy of precipitation data in the fields of hydrology, meteorology, agriculture, and ecology, facilitating the analysis of uncertainties in related research. Full article

In soil erosion estimation models, the variables with the greatest impact are rainfall erosivity ($RE$), which is the measurement of precipitation energy and its potential capacity to cause erosion, and erosivity density ($ED$), which relates $RE$ to precipitation. The $RE$ requires high temporal resolution records for its estimation. However, due to the limited observed information and the increasing availability of rainfall estimates based on remote sensing, recent research has shown the usefulness of using observed-corrected satellite data for $RE$ estimation. This study evaluates the performance of a new gridded dataset of $RE$ and $ED$ in Peru (PISCO_reed) by merging data from the IMERG v06 product, through a new calibration approach with hourly records of automatic weather stations, during the period of 2000–2020. By using this method, a correlation of 0.94 was found between PISCO_reed and $RE$ obtained by the observed data. An average annual $RE$ for Peru of 7840 MJ · mm · ha${}^{-1}$· h${}^{-1}$ was estimated with a general increase towards the lowland Amazon regions, and high values were found on the North Pacific Coast area of Peru. The spatial identification of the most at risk areas of erosion was evaluated through a relationship between the $ED$ and rainfall. Both erosivity datasets will allow us to expand our fundamental understanding and quantify soil erosion with greater precision. Full article

Precipitation products play an important role in monitoring rainstorm processes. This study takes a rare historical event of extreme, heavy precipitation that occurred in Henan Province, China, in July 2021 as a research case. By analyzing the distribution of the spatial and temporal characteristics of precipitation errors, using a probability density function of the occurrence of precipitation and the daily variation pattern, we assess the capability of a radar precipitation estimation product (RADAR), satellite precipitation products (IMERG and GSMAP), a reanalysis product (ERA5) and a precipitation fusion product (the CMPAS) to monitor an extreme rainstorm in the Henan region. The CMPAS has the best fit with the gauge observations in terms of the precipitation area, precipitation maximum and the evolution of the whole process, with a low spatial variability of errors. However, the CMPAS slightly underestimated the precipitation extremum at the peak moment (06:00–08:00). The RADAR product was prone to a spurious overestimation of the originally small rainfall, especially during peak precipitation times, with deviations concentrated in the core precipitation area. The IMERG, GSMAP and ERA5 products have similar performances, all of which failed to effectively capture heavy precipitation in excess of 60 mm/h, with negative deviations in precipitation at mountainfront locations west of northern Henan Province. There is still a need for terrain-specific error revisions for areas with large topographic relief. By merging and processing precipitation data from multiple sources, the accuracy of the CMPAS is better than any single-source precipitation product. The CMPAS has the characteristic advantage of high spatial and temporal resolutions (0.01° × 0.01°/1 h), which play a positive role in precipitation dynamic monitoring, providing early warnings of heavy rainfall processes and hydrological application research. Full article

High accuracy and a high spatiotemporal resolution of precipitation are essential for the hydrological, ecological, and environmental fields. However, the existing daily gridded precipitation datasets, such as remote sensing products, are limited both by the coarse resolution and the low accuracy. Despite considerable efforts having been invested in downscaling or merging, a method of coupled and simultaneously downscaling and merging multiple datasets is currently lacking, which limits the wide application of individual popular satellite precipitation products. For the first time, in this study, we propose a simple coupled merging and downscaling (CMD) method for simultaneously obtaining multiple high-resolution and high-accuracy daily precipitation datasets. A pixel-repeated decomposition method was first proposed, and the random forest (RF) method was then applied to merge multiple daily precipitation datasets. The individual downscaled dataset was obtained by multiplying the result of merging by an explanatory rate obtained by RF. The results showed that the CMD method exhibited significantly better performance compared with the original datasets, with the mean absolute error (MAE) improving by up to 50%, the majority of the values of bias ranging between −1 mm and 1 mm, and the majority of the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) values being greater than 0.7. CMD was more accurate than the widely used dataset, Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP), with a 43% reduction in the MAE and a 245% improvement in the KGE. In addition, the long-term estimation suggested that the proposed method exhibits stable good performance over time. Full article

The Agroray project was aimed at the development of a high-resolution numerical weather prediction system that will allow farmers to optimize their activities and protect their products from adverse weather events. The system is based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model and focuses on Central Macedonia with a horizontal grid spacing of 1 km. The aim of this article is to describe the model configuration and validate its performance during selected frost and intense precipitation events. The evaluation against station measurements and radar precipitation showed that the optimum model setup includes Corine land use and enhanced vertical resolution near the surface. Full article

Accurate and spatially distributed precipitation data are fundamental to effective water resource management. In Morocco, as in other arid and semi-arid regions, precipitation exhibits significant spatial and temporal variability. Indeed, there is an intra- and inter-annual variability and the northwest is rainier than the rest of the country. In the Bouregreg watershed, this irregularity, along with a sparse gauge network, poses a major challenge for water resource management. In this context, remote sensing data could provide a viable alternative. This study aims precisely to evaluate the performance of four gridded daily precipitation products: three IMERG-V06 datasets (GPM-F, GPM-L, and GPM-E) and a reanalysis product (ERA5). The evaluation is conducted using 11 rain gauge stations over a 20-year period (2000–2020) on various temporal scales (daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual) using a pixel-to-point approach, employing different classification and regression metrics of machine learning. According to the findings, the GPM products showed high accuracy with a low margin of error in terms of bias, RMSE, and MAE. However, it was observed that ERA5 outperformed the GPM products in identifying spatial precipitation patterns and demonstrated a stronger correlation. The evaluation results also showed that the gridded precipitation products performed better during the summer months for seasonal assessment, with relatively lower accuracy and higher biases during rainy months. Furthermore, these gridded products showed excellent performance in capturing different precipitation intensities, with the highest accuracy observed for light rain. This is particularly important for arid and semi-arid regions where most precipitation falls under the low-intensity category. Although gridded precipitation estimates provide global coverage at high spatiotemporal resolutions, their accuracy is currently insufficient and would require improvement. To address this, we employed an artificial neural network (ANN) model for bias correction and enhancing raw precipitation estimates from the GPM-F product. The results indicated a slight increase in the correlation coefficient and a significant reduction in biases, RMSE, and MAE. Consequently, this research currently supports the applicability of GPM-F data in North Western Morocco. Full article

Satellite precipitation products (SPPs) have emerged as an important information source of precipitation with high spatio-temporal resolutions, with great potential to improve catchment water resource management and hydrologic modelling, especially in data-sparse regions. As an indirect precipitation measurement, satellite-derived precipitation accuracy is of major concern. There have been numerous evaluation/validation studies worldwide. However, a convincing systematic evaluation/validation of satellite precipitation remains unrealized. In particular, there are still only a limited number of hydrologic evaluations/validations with a long temporal period. Here we present a systematic evaluation of eight popular SPPs (CHIRPS, CMORPH, GPCP, GPM, GSMaP, MSWEP, PERSIANN, and SM2RAIN). The evaluation area used, using daily data from 2007 to 2020, is the Xiangjiang River basin, a mountainous catchment with a humid sub-tropical monsoon climate situated in south China. The evaluation was conducted at various spatial scales (both grid-gauge scale and watershed scale) and temporal scales (annual and seasonal scales). The evaluation paid particular attention to precipitation intensity and especially its impact on hydrologic modelling. In the evaluation of the results, the overall statistical metrics show that GSMaP and MSWEP rank as the two best-performing SPPs, with KGE_Grid ≥ 0.48 and KGE_Watershed ≥ 0.67, while CHIRPS and SM2RAIN were the two worst-performing SPPs with KGE_Grid ≤ 0.25 and KGE_Watershed ≤ 0.42. GSMaP gave the closest agreement with the observations. The GSMaP-driven model also was superior in depicting the rainfall-runoff relationship compared to the hydrologic models driven by other SPPs. This study further demonstrated that satellite remote sensing still has difficulty accurately estimating precipitation over a mountainous region. This study provides helpful information to optimize the generation of algorithms for satellite precipitation products, and valuable guidance for local communities to select suitable alternative precipitation datasets. Full article

Anthropogenically induced global warming intensifies the water cycle around the world. As a critical sector of the water cycle, snow depth and its related extremes greatly impact agriculture, animal husbandry, and food security, yet lack investigation. In this study, five high-resolution climate models are selected to simulate and project snow depth and its extremes over China. The simulation capabilities of models in reproducing the basic climate variables in winter are gauged in terms of spatial and temporal patterns over nine subregions. It is found that the driving global climate model (GCM) can contribute to similar patterns, while the different regional climate model (RCM) schemes lead to large variations in the snowfall accumulating on the land surface. The warming magnitude is larger under a higher representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenario (2.5 °C greater under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5). The distribution of ensemble mean winter precipitation changes is more fragmented because of the relatively low skill in reproducing water-related content in the climate system. The projected precipitation change is larger under RCP8.5 than under RCP4.5 due to the amplification of the hydrological cycle by temperature warming. The projected changes in the ensemble mean snow depth mainly occur over the Tibetan Plateau with a decreasing trend. Only several grids over the Himalayas Mountains and the upper stream of the Yarlung Zangbo River are projected with a slight increase in snow depth. Both the intensity and frequency of extreme snow events are projected to increase in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, which are important agricultural and animal husbandry production areas in China. The reason behind this projection can be explained by the fact that the hydrological cycle intensified by temperature warming leads to excessive snowfall stacking up during winter. The changes in extreme snowfall events in the future will have a significant impact on China’s agricultural and animal husbandry production and threaten food security. Full article

High-resolution meteorological datasets are urgently needed for understanding the hydrological cycle of the Tibetan Plateau (TP), where ground-based meteorological stations are sparse. Rapid advances in remote sensing create possibilities to represent spatiotemporal properties of precipitation at a high resolution. In this study, the hourly precipitation characteristics over the TP from two gridded precipitation products, one from global reanalysis (the fifth generation of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis of the global climate; ERA5) and the other is simulated by Global-to-Regional Integrated forecast SysTem (GRIST) global nonhydrostatic model, are compared against satellite-gauge merged precipitation analysis (China Merged Precipitation Analysis; CMPA) from 27 July to 31 August 2014, and a satellite-retrieved precipitation estimate from the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) is also evolved. Two aspects are mainly focused on: the spatial distribution and the elevation dependence of hourly precipitation characteristics (including precipitation amount, frequency, intensity, diurnal variations, and frequency–intensity structure). Results indicate that: (1) The precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity of CMPA and IMERG decrease with altitude in the Yarlung Tsangpo river valley (YTRV), but increase at first and then decrease with altitude (except for intensity) in the eastern periphery of TP (EPTP). ERA5 performed well on the variation of precipitation amount with altitude (especially in EPTP), but poorly on the frequency and intensity. GRIST is the antithesis of ERA5, but they all overestimate (underestimate) the frequency (intensity) at all heights; (2) With increasing altitude, the diurnal phase of precipitation of CMPA and IMERG shifted from night to evening in the two sub-regions. IMERG’s diurnal phase is 1 to 3 h earlier than CMPA’s, and the discrepancy decreases (increases) as the altitude increases in YTRV (EPTP). The diurnal phase of precipitation amount and frequency in ERA5 and GRIST is significantly earlier than CMPA, and the frequency peaks around midday except in the basin. GRIST’s simulation of the diurnal variation in intensity at various altitudes is consistent with CMPA; (3) ERA5 and GRIST overestimate (underestimate) the frequency of weak (intense) precipitation, with ERA5’s deviance being the most severe. The deviations increased with altitude. These findings provide intensive metrics to evaluate precipitation in complex terrain and are helpful for deepening the understanding of simulated biases for further improving performance in high-resolution simulation. Full article

Satellite-based precipitation (SP) data are gaining scientific interest due to their advantage in producing high-resolution products with quasi-global coverage. However, since the major reliance of precipitation data is on the distinctive geographical features of each location, they remain at a considerable distance from station-based data. This paper examines the effectiveness of a convolutional autoencoder (CAE) architecture in pixel-by-pixel bias correction of SP products for the Mekong River Basin (MRB). Two satellite-based products (TRMM and PERSIANN-CDR) and a gauge-based product (APHRODITE) are gridded rainfall products mined in this experiment. According to the estimated statistical criteria, the CAE model was effective in reducing the gap between SP products and benchmark data both in terms of spatial and temporal correlations. The two corrected SP products (CAE_TRMM and CAE_CDR) performed competitively, with CAE TRMM appearing to have a slight advantage over CAE CDR, however, the difference was minor. This study’s findings proved the effectiveness of deep learning-based models (here CAE) for bias correction of SP products. We believe that this technique will be a feasible alternative for delivering an up-to-current and reliable dataset for MRB studies, given that the sole available gauge-based dataset for this area has been out of date for a long time. Full article