Search Results (13)

To enhance the safety risk management and control capabilities for TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine) construction in hydraulic tunnels, this study conducts a correlation analysis and dynamic evolution study of safety risks. Data were collected through multiple channels, including a literature review, on-site records, and expert interviews. Grounded theory was employed for three-level coding to initially identify risk factors, and gray relational analysis was used for indicator optimization, ultimately establishing a safety risk system comprising 5 categories and 21 indicators. A multi-level hierarchical structure of risk correlation was established using fuzzy DEMATEL and ISM, which was then mapped into a Bayesian network (BN). The degree of correlation was quantified based on probabilistic information, leading to the construction of a risk correlation analysis model based on fuzzy DEMATEL–ISM–BN. Furthermore, considering the risk correlations, a safety risk evolution model for TBM construction in hydraulic tunnels was developed based on system dynamics. The validity of the model was verified using the AY project as a case study. The results indicate that the safety risk correlation structure for TBM construction in hydraulic tunnels consists of 7 levels, with the closest correlation found between “inadequate management systems” and “failure to implement safety training and technical disclosure”. As the number of interacting risk factors increases, the trend of risk level evolution also rises, with the interrelations within the management subsystem being the key targets for prevention and control. The most sensitive factors within each subsystem were further identified as adverse geological conditions, improper construction parameter settings, inappropriate equipment selection and configuration, weak safety awareness, and inadequate management systems. The control measures proposed based on these findings can provide a basis for project risk prevention and control. The main limitations of this study are that some probability parameters rely on expert experience, which could be optimized in the future by incorporating more actual monitoring data. Additionally, the applicability of the established model under extreme geological conditions requires further verification. Full article

With the continuous expansion of urban rail transit networks, construction safety of connecting passages—as critical weak links in underground structural systems—has become pivotal for project success. Although artificial ground freezing technology effectively addresses adverse geological conditions (e.g., high permeability and weak self-stability), it is influenced by multi-field coupling effects (temperature, stress, and seepage fields), which may trigger chain risks such as freezing pipe fractures and frozen curtain leakage during construction. This study deconstructed the freezing method workflow (‘drilling pipe-laying → active freezing → channel excavation → structural support’) and established a hierarchical evaluation index system incorporating geological characteristics, technological parameters, and environmental impacts by considering sandy soil phase-change features and hydro-thermal coupling effects. For weight calculation, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was innovatively applied to balance subjective-objective assignment deviations, revealing that the excavation support stage (weight: 52.94%) and thawing-grouting stage (31.48%) most significantly influenced overall risk. Subsequently, a Bayesian network-based risk assessment model was constructed, with prior probabilities updated in real-time using construction monitoring data. Results indicated an overall construction risk probability of 46.3%, with the excavation stage exhibiting the highest sensitivity index (3.97%), identifying it as the core risk control link. These findings provide a quantitative basis for dynamically identifying construction risks and optimizing mitigation measures, offering substantial practical value for enhancing safety in subway connecting passage construction within water-rich sandy strata. Full article

Nuclear energy is a cornerstone of the global energy mix, delivering reliable, low-carbon power essential for sustainable energy systems. However, the safety of nuclear reactors is critical to maintaining operational reliability and public trust, particularly during accidents like a Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) or a Steam Line Break Inside Containment (SLBIC). This study introduces a Bayesian Network (BN) framework used to enhance nuclear energy safety by predicting accident severity and identifying key factors that ensure energy production stability. With the integration of simulation data and physical knowledge, the BN enables dynamic inference and remains robust under missing-data conditions—common in real-time energy monitoring. Its hierarchical structure organizes variables across layers, capturing initial conditions, intermediate dynamics, and system responses vital to energy safety management. Conditional Probability Tables (CPTs), trained via Maximum Likelihood Estimation, ensure accurate modeling of relationships. The model’s resilience to missing data, achieved through marginalization, sustains predictive reliability when critical energy system variables are unavailable. Achieving R² values of 0.98 and 0.96 for the LOCA and SLBIC, respectively, the BN demonstrates high accuracy, directly supporting safer nuclear energy production. Sensitivity analysis using mutual information pinpointed critical variables—such as high-pressure injection flow (WHPI) and pressurizer level (LVPZ)—that influence accident outcomes and energy system resilience. These findings offer actionable insights for the optimization of monitoring and intervention in nuclear power plants. This study positions Bayesian Networks as a robust tool for real-time energy safety assessment, advancing the reliability and sustainability of nuclear energy production. Full article

Background: The sense of agency (SoA)—the subjective experience of controlling one’s own actions and their consequences—is a fundamental aspect of human cognition, volition, and motor control. Understanding how the SoA arises and is disrupted in neuropsychiatric disorders has significant implications for human–machine interface (HMI) design for neurorehabilitation. Traditional cognitive models of agency often fail to capture its full complexity, especially in dynamic and uncertain environments. Objective: This review synthesizes computational models—particularly predictive coding, Bayesian inference, and optimal control theories—to provide a unified framework for understanding the SoA in both healthy and dysfunctional brains. It aims to demonstrate how these models can inform the design of adaptive HMIs and therapeutic tools by aligning with the brain’s own inference and control mechanisms. Methods: I reviewed the foundational and contemporary literature on predictive coding, Kalman filtering, the Linear–Quadratic–Gaussian (LQG) control framework, and active inference. I explored their integration with neurophysiological mechanisms, focusing on the somato-cognitive action network (SCAN) and its role in sensorimotor integration, intention encoding, and the judgment of agency. Case studies, simulations, and XR-based rehabilitation paradigms using robotic haptics were used to illustrate theoretical concepts. Results: The SoA emerges from hierarchical inference processes that combine top–down motor intentions with bottom–up sensory feedback. Predictive coding frameworks, especially when implemented via Kalman filters and LQG control, provide a mechanistic basis for modeling motor learning, error correction, and adaptive control. Disruptions in these inference processes underlie symptoms in disorders such as functional movement disorder. XR-based interventions using robotic interfaces can restore the SoA by modulating sensory precision and motor predictions through adaptive feedback and suggestion. Computer simulations demonstrate how internal models, and hypnotic suggestions influence state estimation, motor execution, and the recovery of agency. Conclusions: Predictive coding and active inference offer a powerful computational framework for understanding and enhancing the SoA in health and disease. The SCAN system serves as a neural hub for integrating motor plans with cognitive and affective processes. Future work should explore the real-time modulation of agency via biofeedback, simulation, and SCAN-targeted non-invasive brain stimulation. Full article

Urban roads face significant challenges from the unpredictable and destructive characteristics of natural or man-made disasters, emphasizing the importance of modeling and evaluating their resilience for emergency management. Resilience is the ability to recover from disruptions and is influenced by factors such as human behavior, road conditions, and the environment. However, current approaches to measuring resilience primarily focus on the functional attributes of road facilities, neglecting the vital feedback effects that occur during disasters. This study aims to model and evaluate road resilience under dynamic and uncertain emergency event scenarios. A new definition of road operational resilience is proposed based on the pressure-state-response theory, and the interaction mechanism between multidimensional factors and the stage characteristics of resilience is analyzed. A method for measuring road operational resilience using Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) is proposed, and a hierarchical DBN structure is constructed based on domain knowledge to describe the influence relationship between resilience elements. The Best Worst method (BWM) and Dempster–Shafer evidence theory are used to determine the resilience status of network nodes in DBN parameter learning. A road operational resilience cube is constructed to visually integrate multidimensional and dynamic road resilience measurement results obtained from DBNs. The method proposed in this paper is applied to measure the operational resilience of roads during emergencies on the Shanghai expressway, achieving a 92.19% accuracy rate in predicting resilient nodes. Sensitivity analysis identifies scattered objects, casualties, and the availability of rescue resources as key factors affecting the rapidity of response disposal in road operations. These findings help managers better understand road resilience during emergencies and make informed decisions. Full article

Signal transmission plays an important role in the daily operation of structural health monitoring (SHM) systems. In wireless sensor networks, transmission loss often occurs and threatens reliable data delivery. The massive amount of data monitoring also leads to a high signal transmission and storage cost throughout the system’s service life. Compressive Sensing (CS) provides a novel perspective on alleviating these problems. Based on the sparsity of vibration signals in the frequency domain, CS can reconstruct a nearly complete signal from just a few measurements. This can improve the robustness of data loss while facilitating data compression to reduce transmission demands. Extended from CS methods, distributed compressive sensing (DCS) can exploit the correlation across multiple measurement vectors (MMV) to jointly recover the multi-channel signals with similar sparse patterns, which can effectively enhance the reconstruction quality. In this paper, a comprehensive DCS framework for wireless signal transmission in SHM is constructed, incorporating the process of data compression and transmission loss together. Unlike the basic DCS formulation, the proposed framework not only activates the inter-correlation among channels but also provides flexibility and independence to single-channel transmission. To promote signal sparsity, a hierarchical Bayesian model using Laplace priors is built and further improved as the fast iterative DCS-Laplace algorithm for large-scale reconstruction tasks. Vibration signals (e.g., dynamic displacement and accelerations) acquired from real-life SHM systems are used to simulate the whole process of wireless transmission and test the algorithm’s performance. The results demonstrate that (1) DCS-Laplace is an adaptative algorithm that can actively adapt to signals with various sparsity by adjusting the penalty term to achieve optimal performance; (2) compared with CS methods, DCS methods can effectively improve the reconstruction quality of multi-channel signals; (3) the Laplace method has advantages over the OMP method in terms of reconstruction performance and applicability, which is a better choice in SHM wireless signal transmission. Full article

Orthotropic steel decks (OSDs) are inevitably subjected to fatigue damage caused by cycled vehicle loads in long-span bridges. This study establishes a probabilistic analysis framework integrating the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) and fracture mechanics to model the fatigue crack propagation considering mutual correlations among multiple fatigue details. Both the observations of fatigue crack length from field inspection and monitoring data of vehicle loads from the weight-in-motion (WIM) system are utilized. First, fracture mechanics-based uncertainty analysis is performed to determine the multiple uncertainty sources in the Paris crack propagation model, material property, and observation data of crack length. The uncertainty of monitoring data of vehicle loads is ignored because of its high accuracy; consequently, the vehicle-load-related uncertainty is spontaneously ignored, which is also demonstrated to be very small on the investigated actual bridges. Second, a hierarchical DBN model is introduced to construct mutual dependencies among various uncertainties and intra-correlations in the propagation process of multiple fatigue cracks at different components. Third, a stochastic traffic model is established based on the WIM monitoring data and multi-scale finite element analysis via substructure techniques to determine the probability distribution of vehicle-load-related parameters. After variable discretization, a refined exact inference algorithm in a forward–backward–forward manner is adopted to estimate the posterior distribution of equivalent initial crack length and update the established DBN model. Finally, the proposed method is demonstrated by a numerical case study and a typical application on an actual cable-stayed bridge with steel box girders using OSDs in China. The results show that the probability distribution of equivalent initial crack size can be spontaneously derived with a larger mean value than the results of conventional empirical analysis. Furthermore, the component-level fatigue reliability is tracked and predicted based on the established crack propagation model. Full article

In patients with severe heart disease, the implantation of a ventricular assist device (VAD) may be necessary, especially in patients with an indication for heart transplantation. For this, the Institute Dante Pazzanese of Cardiology (IDPC) has developed an implantable centrifugal blood pump that will be able to help a diseased human heart to maintain physiological blood flow and pressure. This device will be used as a totally or partially implantable VAD. Therefore, performance assurance and correct specification of the VAD are important factors in achieving a safe interaction between the device and the patient’s behavior or condition. Even with reliable devices, some failures may occur if the pumping control does not keep up with changes in the patient’s behavior or condition. If the VAD control system has no fault tolerance and no system dynamic adaptation that occurs according to changes in the patient’s cardiovascular system, a number of limitations can be observed in the results and effectiveness of these devices, especially in patients with acute comorbidities. This work proposes the application of a mechatronic approach to this class of devices based on advanced control, instrumentation, and automation techniques to define a method to develop a hierarchical supervisory control system capable of dynamically, automatically, and safely VAD control. For this methodology, concepts based on Bayesian networks (BN) were used to diagnose the patient’s cardiovascular system conditions, Petri nets (PN) to generate the VAD control algorithm, and safety instrumented systems to ensure the safety of the VAD system. Full article

The reliability and cost-effectiveness of energy conversion in gas turbine systems are strongly dependent on an accurate diagnosis of possible process and sensor anomalies. Because data collected from a gas turbine system for diagnosis are inherently uncertain due to measurement noise and errors, probabilistic methods offer a promising tool for this problem. In particular, dynamic Bayesian networks present numerous advantages. In this work, two Bayesian networks were developed for compressor fouling and turbine erosion diagnostics. Different prior probability distributions were compared to determine the benefits of a dynamic, first-order hierarchical Markov model over a static prior probability and one dependent only on time. The influence of data uncertainty and scatter was analyzed by testing the diagnostics models on simulated fleet data. It was shown that the condition-based hierarchical model resulted in the best accuracy, and the benefit was more significant for data with higher overlap between states (i.e., for compressor fouling). The improvement with the proposed dynamic Bayesian network was 8 percentage points (in classification accuracy) for compressor fouling and 5 points for turbine erosion compared with the static network. Full article

Human activity type inference has long been the focus for applications ranging from managing transportation demand to monitoring changes in land use patterns. Today’s ever increasing volume of mobility data allow researchers to explore a wide range of methodological approaches for this task. Such data, however, lack reference observations that would allow the validation of methodological approaches. This research proposes a methodological framework for urban activity type inference using a Dirichlet multinomial dynamic Bayesian network with an empirical Bayes prior that can be applied to mobility data of low spatiotemporal resolution. The method was validated using open source Foursquare data under different isochrone configurations. The results provide evidence of the limits of activity detection accuracy using such data as determined by the Area Under Receiving Operating Curve (AUROC), log-loss, and accuracy metrics. At the same time, results demonstrate that a hierarchical modeling framework can provide some flexibility against the challenges related to the nature of unsupervised activity classification using trajectory variables and POIs as input. Full article

Predicting the secondary structure from protein sequence plays a crucial role in estimating the 3D structure, which has applications in drug design and in understanding the function of proteins. As new genes and proteins are discovered, the large size of the protein databases and datasets that can be used for training prediction models grows considerably. A two-stage hybrid classifier, which employs dynamic Bayesian networks and a support vector machine (SVM) has been shown to provide state-of-the-art prediction accuracy for protein secondary structure prediction. However, SVM is not efficient for large datasets due to the quadratic optimization involved in model training. In this paper, two techniques are implemented on CB513 benchmark for reducing the number of samples in the train set of the SVM. The first method randomly selects a fraction of data samples from the train set using a stratified selection strategy. This approach can remove approximately 50% of the data samples from the train set and reduce the model training time by 73.38% on average without decreasing the prediction accuracy significantly. The second method clusters the data samples by a hierarchical clustering algorithm and replaces the train set samples with nearest neighbors of the cluster centers in order to improve the training time. To cluster the feature vectors, the hierarchical clustering method is implemented, for which the number of clusters and the number of nearest neighbors are optimized as hyper-parameters by computing the prediction accuracy on validation sets. It is found that clustering can reduce the size of the train set by 26% without reducing the prediction accuracy. Among the clustering techniques Ward’s method provided the best accuracy on test data. Full article

The highly accurate multiresolution leaf area index (LAI) is an important parameter for carbon cycle simulation for bamboo forests at different scales. However, current LAI products have discontinuous resolution with 1 km mostly, that makes it difficult to accurately quantify the spatiotemporal evolution of carbon cycle at different resolutions. Thus, this study used MODIS LAI product (MOD15A2) and MODIS reflectance data (MOD09Q1) of Moso bamboo forest (MBF) from 2015, and it adopted a hierarchical Bayesian network (HBN) algorithm coupled with a dynamic LAI model and the PROSAIL model to obtain high-precision LAI data at multiresolution (i.e., 1000, 500, and 250 m). The results showed the LAIs assimilated using the HBN at the three resolutions corresponded with the actual growth trend of the MBF and correlated significantly with the observed LAI with a determination coefficient (R²) value of >0.80. The highest-precision assimilated LAI was obtained at 1000-m resolution with R² values of 0.91. The LAI assimilated using the HBN algorithm achieved better accuracy than the MODIS LAI with increases in the R² value of 2.7 times and decreases in the root mean square error of 87.8%. Therefore, the HBN algorithm applied in this study can effectively obtain highly accurate multiresolution LAI time series data for bamboo forest. Full article

Estimation of origin–destination (OD) demand plays a key role in successful transportation studies. In this paper, we consider the estimation of time-varying day-to-day OD flows given data on traffic volumes in a transportation network for a sequence of days. We propose a dynamic linear model (DLM) in order to represent the stochastic evolution of OD flows over time. DLMs are Bayesian state-space models which can capture non-stationarity. We take into account the hierarchical relationships between the distribution of OD flows among routes and the assignment of traffic volumes on links. Route choice probabilities are obtained through a utility model based on past route costs. We propose a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, which integrates Gibbs sampling and a forward filtering backward sampling technique, in order to approximate the joint posterior distribution of mean OD flows and parameters of the route choice model. Our approach can be applied to congested networks and in the case when data are available on only a subset of links. We illustrate the application of our approach through simulated experiments on a test network from the literature. Full article