Search Results (1,128)

The Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) is a flagship and umbrella species of forest ecosystems in northeastern Asia. Climate change is profoundly and irreversibly affecting wildlife habitat suitability, especially for large mammals. To effectively protect the Amur tiger, it is necessary to understand the impact of climate change on the quality and the connectivity of its habitat. We used the species distribution models combined with the latest Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate scenarios to predict current and future changes in habitats and corridors. We found the following: (1) The total area of the Amur tiger’s suitable habitat currently amounts to approximately 4941.94 km², accounting for 27.64% of the study area represented by two adjacent national parks. Among these habitats, the highly suitable areas are mainly located on the both sides of the Sino-Russian border. The landscape connectivity remains relatively stable, and the degree of fragmentation in highly suitable habitats is low. (2) Although the suitable habitat of the Amur tiger shows an expansion trend under most climate scenarios (excluding SSP3-7.0), the area of suitable habitat within the entire study region does not increase significantly. Therefore, we should implement conservation measures to facilitate the continued expansion of suitable habitat for the Amur tiger. The quantity and length of landscape connectivity corridors are expected to vary in response to changes in core habitat patches, while the centroid of highly suitable habitats is also expected to shift to different extents. In such circumstances, new ecological corridors need to be constructed, while existing natural ecological corridors should be preserved. Full article

The Chinese sturgeon (Acipenser sinensis), a critically endangered anadromous fish species, spends over 90% of its life cycle in marine habitats, yet research on its marine ecology and habitat requirements is limited due to sparse data. To address this, we integrated satellite remote sensing with ecological modeling to assess spatiotemporal dynamics in marine habitat suitability across China’s continental shelf (2003–2020). Nine key habitat factors were derived from multi-source remote sensing data and inverted transparency algorithms. Species occurrence data were coupled with the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model to evaluate habitat preferences and seasonal shifts. Results revealed distinct environmental preferences: shallow depths (≤20 m), sea surface and bottom temperature (10–30 °C and 10–25 °C), salinity (10–35‰), transparency (0.40–3.00 m), eastward and northward seawater velocity (−0.20–0.15 m/s and −0.20–0.20 m/s), moderate productivity (1000–3000 mg/m²), and zooplankton carbon (0.20–6.00 g/m²). Habitat factor importance varied seasonally—salinity, depth, and net primary productivity dominated in spring; bottom temperature and productivity in summer/autumn; salinity and transparency in winter. Spatially, high-suitability areas peaked in autumn (70% total suitable habitat), concentrating near the Yangtze Estuary, northern Jiangsu coast, and Zhoushan Archipelago. This study emphasizes the need to prioritize these areas for protection and inform proliferation and release schemes for Chinese sturgeon. It also demonstrates the efficacy of remote sensing for mapping essential habitats of migratory megafauna in complex coastal ecosystems and provides actionable insights for targeted conservation strategies. Full article

Climate change is altering environmental conditions, which can, in turn, change the geographic distribution and flowering patterns of plant species, affecting both the plants themselves and their pollinators. The responses of melliferous plant species to climate change in southeastern Mexico are poorly understood, which hinders an accurate assessment of their vulnerability and the resulting ecological impacts. As understanding the mechanisms that influence the distribution and susceptibility of these species is essential, the present study examined how climate change affects their potential distribution areas and spatial distribution patterns. This information will serve as reference data for the implementation of conservation strategies and inform the selection of species for reforestation. Ecological niche models were used to estimate the potential distributions of 92 melliferous species under both current environmental conditions and two climate change scenarios projected for the 2041–2060 period (SSP245 and SSP585). Changes in distribution patterns were then assessed by evaluating the range size of each species and analyzing the spatio–temporal trends in species richness. The results revealed that suitable habitats shifted for approximately 80% of melliferous species, with more significant habitat loss observed under the SSP585 scenario than under SSP245. Although a significant decrease in melliferous plant species richness was expected in future scenarios, richness was slightly higher (by 10% for SSP245 and 5% for SSP585) than that observed under current environmental conditions. Under SSP245 conditions, species richness areas expanded to encompass almost the entire region, although this contrasted drastically with the SSP585 scenario, where areas with the highest concentration of species richness contracted significantly and areas with low species richness expanded. These projections are of potential use for conservationists and environmental management authorities, providing crucial insights into the future distributions of several melliferous plant species in the region, the potential impacts of climate change on their habitats, and the vulnerability of threatened species to changing climatic conditions. Full article

Spatholobus suberectus, a valuable Chinese medicinal plant, faces habitat shifts under climate change. In order to better utilize the medicinal properties of S. suberectus and conduct further investigations, this study utilized the Biomod2 ensemble model to predict and analyze the potential expansion and contraction of suitable habitat areas for S. suberectus in China under changing climatic and environmental conditions. The results showed that, compared to the pre-screened models, the ensemble model significantly improved the prediction accuracy. Currently, S. suberectus is primarily distributed in southern China. Under the projected scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, its suitable habitat is expected to expand overall, with the increased areas concentrated mainly in southwestern, central, and eastern China. As climatic factors shift, the high-suitability center of S. suberectus is predicted to shift slightly southward under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, while under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, it is projected to move northwestward. In the future, it will be necessary to optimize the warm and humid growth environment for cultivated S. suberectus in China. Meanwhile, wild S. suberectus populations should be closely monitored for the impact of climate change to prevent potential partial reductions in suitable habitats, thereby ensuring ecological balance and sustainable development. Full article

Zoning is vital for balancing biodiversity conservation and sustainable development in protected areas, yet traditional approaches often lead to ecological overprotection and social conflict. This study introduces an integrative modeling framework to optimize zoning strategies in the Longbao Reserve on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. We employed MaxEnt and Random Forest algorithms to evaluate habitat suitability for two flagship species: the bar-headed goose (Anser indicus) and the black-necked crane (Grus nigricollis). Results showed that 7.9% of the reserve comprised highly suitable habitats, mainly in the southeast, characterized by wetlands, water proximity, and low human disturbance. Land use and June NDVI emerged as key predictors, contributing over 30% and 35% to model performance, respectively. Based on habitat suitability and current zoning mismatches, we propose a revised four-tier zoning scheme: Core Habitat Conservation (16.9%), Ecological Rehabilitation (7.2%), Ecological Management (53.5%), and Sustainable Utilization Zones (22.4%). This refined framework aligns conservation priorities with local development needs and offers a scalable approach to adaptive protected area management. Full article

Global warming is accelerating the poleward and upward shifts in climatically suitable ranges of species. Panicum virgatum (switchgrass) is recognized for its dual value in China’s dual-carbon strategy: mitigating food–energy land competition and restoring marginal ecosystems. However, the accuracy of habitat projections is constrained by three limitations: reliance on North American provenance data, uncalibrated model parameters, and insufficient scenario coverage. To address these, 48 switchgrass occurrence records and 22 climatic–topographic variables were integrated. The MaxEnt model was optimized with ENMeval (RM = 4.0, FC = LQH) and coupled with three SSP scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) to quantify habitat area changes and centroid shifts across China. The key findings were as follows: (1) The mean temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11) and elevation were identified as the key limiting factors for the suitable distribution of switchgrass, with their corresponding optimal thresholds determined as −8.79 to 8.11 °C and 0 to 2893 m, respectively. (2) The current suitable habitat covers 583.58 × 10⁴ km², concentrated in the North China Plain. (3) Under SSP5-8.5, the high-suitability habitat is projected to reach 229.44 × 10⁴ km² by the 2090s, with the centroid migrating 305 km northwestward to the Inner Mongolia–Jilin belt. This study highlights the climate–topography coupling that drives northward migration and proposes cold-tolerant cultivar development, priority zoning of marginal lands, and ecological corridor establishment to inform climate-smart biomass energy planning in China. Full article

Temperate forest ecosystems in Korea are currently undergoing a successional transition from Pinus densiflora Siebold & Zucc. (evergreen conifer) communities to Quercus mongolica Fisch. ex Ledeb. (deciduous broadleaf) communities. This study aimed to assess interspecific differences in ecological responses to climate change [Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5] by evaluating changes in ecological niche characteristics and species distribution. Controlled-environment experiments, principal component analysis (PCA), and MaxEnt species distribution modeling were employed to quantify and predict ecological shifts in the two dominant species under climate change scenarios. Both species exhibited increases in niche breadth and interspecific overlap under climate change conditions. However, Q. mongolica showed a more pronounced increase in niche breadth compared to P. densiflora, indicating greater ecological flexibility and adaptive potential to warming conditions. According to the MaxEnt model projections, climate change is expected to result in an approximate 30% reduction in suitable habitat for P. densiflora in lowland areas. In contrast, Q. mongolica is projected to expand its suitable habitat by over 80%, notably in both low-elevation (below 800 m) and high-elevation (above 1400 m) zones, without being restricted to any specific altitudinal range. Our findings suggest that climate change may increase ecological similarity between P. densiflora and Q. mongolica, thereby raising the potential for interspecific competition. This convergence in niche traits could contribute to an accelerated successional transition, although actual competitive interactions in natural ecosystems require further empirical validation. Consequently, Korean forests are likely to transform into predominantly deciduous forest ecosystems under future climate conditions. Full article

The fall webworm, Hyphantria cunea (Drury) (Lepidoptera: Erebidae: Arctiidae), is a highly dangerous global invasive pest. It exhibits two races: the “red-headed” and “black-headed,” each with distinct ecological traits. However, much remains unknown regarding the climatic niche and potential global distribution suitability of these two races. This study utilized the COUE framework, and Maxent models to investigate the climatic niche differences between these two races and predict their respective potential suitable distributions globally. Our findings indicate substantial differences in the climatic niches between the two races of H. cunea, with the red-headed race demonstrating greater invasive potential compared to the black-headed race. Both races pose significantly larger potential threats globally than currently recognized. They are capable of survival in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, and Australia. Specifically, Asia and Europe exhibit potentially greater threats from the black-headed race, while other regions show greater potential harm from the red-headed race. This study highlights significant differences in the climatic niches between the two races of H. cunea, as well as the substantial presence of uninvaded suitable habitats globally for both races. Therefore, future efforts to prevent H. cunea invasions should prioritize control strategies tailored to each race and especially emphasize potential regions that have their respective suitable habitats that have not yet been invaded. Full article

Climate change poses unprecedented challenges to forest ecosystems. Betula alnoides, a tree species with significant ecological and economic value in southern China, has been the subject of studies on its distribution pattern and response to climate change. However, research on the distribution pattern of B. alnoides and its response to climate change remains relatively limited. In this study, we developed a MaxEnt model incorporating multiple environmental variables, including climate, topography, soil, vegetation, and human activities, to evaluate model performance, identify key factors influencing the distribution of B. alnoides, and project its potential distribution under various future climate scenarios. Species occurrence data and environmental layers were compiled for China, and model parameters were optimized using the ENMeval package. The results showed that the optimized model achieved an AUC value of 0.956, indicating extremely high predictive accuracy. The four key factors affecting the distribution of B. alnoides were standard deviation of temperature seasonality (Bio4), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), mean temperature of driest quarter (Bio9), and annual precipitation (Bio12). Among them, the cumulative contribution rate of climatic factors reached 68.9%, but the influence of NDVI was significantly higher than that of precipitation factors. The current suitable habitat of B. alnoides is mainly concentrated in the southwestern region, covering an area of 179.32 × 10⁴ km², which accounts for 18.68% of China’s land area. Under the SSP126 scenario, the suitable habitat area first decreases and then increases in the future, while under the SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios, the suitable habitat area continues to shrink, with significant losses in high-suitability areas. In addition, the centroid of the suitable habitat of B. alnoides shows an overall trend of shifting northwestward. This indicates that B. alnoides is highly sensitive to climate change and its distribution pattern will undergo significant changes in the future. In conclusion, the distribution pattern of B. alnoides shows a significant response to climate change, with particularly prominent losses in high-suitability areas in the future. Therefore, it is recommended to strengthen the protection of high-suitability areas in the southwestern region and consider B. alnoides as an alternative tree species for regions facing warming and drying trends to enhance its climate adaptability. Full article

Migratory flyways sustain waterbird populations by linking critical habitats across their annual cycle. However, stage-specific impacts of climate change on these habitats remain poorly understood. We integrated species distribution models with annual migration data from 30 Greater White-fronted Geese (Anser albifrons frontalis) to assess changes in habitat suitability, distributional shifts, and suitability fluctuations across breeding, stopover, and wintering stages under mid-century (2040–2060) climate scenarios. Suitability fluctuations were quantified as the coefficient of variation ($C_V$) in habitat suitability between current and future projections. Projected habitat responses varied markedly across stages: breeding areas contracted by 29.9%, wintering areas expanded by 62.7%, and stopover sites showed minimal net change. Centroids of all habitats are projected to shift northward by mean distances of 125–492 km under future climate scenarios. Breeding habitats exhibited the greatest suitability fluctuations ($C_V=3$0–45; ~50% area affected under SSP585), followed by stopover and wintering grounds ($C_V$ ≈ 11), with 35.8% and 23.3% of their areas falling within high-fluctuation zones. These findings highlight the urgent need to prioritize breeding habitats, implement stage-specific conservation strategies, and enhance international cooperation to ensure the protection of waterbirds along the East Asian Flyway. Full article

The climate is expected to change substantially by the end of the current century. In response to climate change, species may disperse, adapt, or become locally extinct. We aim to assess how the climate changes predicted to occur by 2060 may affect the potential distribution of Tropical Mockingbird (Mimus gilvus antelius) and Chalk-browed Mockingbird (Mimus saturninus frater) within the Atlantic Forest domain, Brazil. Occurrence data for both species were compiled from the scientific literature and online biodiversity databases. A total of 118 georeferenced records were obtained for Tropical Mockingbird and 1080 for Chalk-browed Mockingbird. Species distribution models predicted that the two species would respond differently to the ongoing climatic changes. The Tropical Mockingbird will slightly expand its suitable habitat by 3.5% (3871 km²) under the optimistic scenario (minimum temperature increase by 2060; Representative Concentration Pathways-RCP 2.6) and 2.5% (2765 km²) in the pessimistic scenario (maximum temperature increase by 2060; RPC 8.5), relative to the 1960–1990 baseline. Chalk-browed Mockingbird will reduce its suitable habitat by 64% (70,780 km²) under RPC 2.6 and 65% (71,886 km²) under RPC 8.5. The two future climate scenarios suggest that sympatry between the two species will become increasingly rare, with a shift toward allopatry due to emerging climatically unsuitable areas separating their distributions. Our results highlighted the importance of environmental policies that incorporate local ecological contexts and species-specific traits to mitigate biodiversity loss under future climate conditions. Full article

This study characterizes Phoradendron nervosum, a hemiparasitic mistletoe species prevalent in Ecuador, using morphological, molecular, and ecological modeling approaches. Morphological analysis revealed that P. nervosum possesses green-yellowish cylindrical stems, lanceolate leaves with entire margins, and berry-like fruits with mucilaginous pulp. DNA sequencing of the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region confirmed a 99.43% identity with P. nervosum (GenBank: AH009776.2), supporting the taxonomic classification. A maximum entropy (MaxEnt version 3.4.4) model was developed using 36 occurrence points and 19 bioclimatic variables to assess potential distribution across the Tumbaco region in Ecuador. Key environmental factors influencing the species’ distribution were precipitation during the warmest quarter (BIO_18), temperature seasonality (BIO_4), and mean diurnal temperature range (BIO_2). The model showed good predictive performance (AUC = 0.736), identifying areas with high suitability for P. nervosum, particularly in habitats with adequate water availability and thermal stability. Findings suggest that this mistletoe parasitizes both native and exotic tree species, potentially impacting biodiversity and forest health. This research provides a baseline for monitoring mistletoe spread under climate change scenarios and emphasizes the need for management strategies in agroforestry systems where host trees are vulnerable. Full article

The potential distribution of the pulse blue butterfly, Lampides boeticus (Lepidoptera: Lycaenidae), was determined using MaxEnt, random forest, and ensemble models. The results indicate that most tropical, subtropical, and some temperate regions are suitable habitats. Climate change is projected to expand the species’ habitat northward in the Northern Hemisphere. Predicted distributions aligned well with the known occurrence records for the species. The minimum temperature of the coldest month was the climatic variable that most strongly influenced the distribution of L. boeticus. As a tropical and subtropical species, it is assumed that cold temperatures are the main factor limiting its habitat range. Because the potential distribution of this pest covers major pulse cultivation areas under both current and future climate scenarios, these findings highlight the urgent need for developing a sustainable pest management strategy. Full article

Fusarium circinatum poses severe threats to agroforestry ecosystem as a globally significant pathogenic fungus. This study utilized multi-source species distribution data and environmental variables (climatic, topographic, and soil factors) to predict the global potential habitat suitability of F. circinatum and its response to future climate change using an optimized MaxEnt model (RM = 1, FC = LQ). The results indicate that the current total suitable area spans approximately 69.29 million km², with highly suitable habitats (>0.493) accounting for 15.07%, primarily concentrated in East Asia, southwestern North America, western South America, the Mediterranean coast, and eastern Australia. The distribution of F. circinatum’s suitable habitats is primarily constrained by the following environmental factors, ranked by contribution rate: coldest quarter precipitation (29.4%), coldest quarter mean temperature (18.2%), annual mean temperature (17.2%), and annual precipitation (12%). Under future climate scenarios, the suitable habitats exhibited an overall contraction and poleward shift, with the most significant decline in highly suitable areas observed under SSP370-2050s (−52.1%). The centroid of suitable habitats continuously migrated northwestward from Gombe State, Nigeria, with the maximum displacement reaching 1077.6 km by SSP585-2090s. This study reveals a latitude gradient redistribution pattern of F. circinatum driven by climate warming, providing a scientific basis for transboundary biosecurity and early warning systems. Full article

Protecting threatened elasmobranch species despite limited data on their distribution and abundance is a critical challenge, particularly in the context of increasing human impacts on marine ecosystems. In the northeastern Atlantic, species such as the leafscale gulper shark, Portuguese dogfish, spurdog, and spotted ray are facing pressures from overfishing, bycatch, habitat degradation, and climate change. The OSPAR Commission has listed these species as threatened and/or declining and aims to protect them by reliably identifying suitable habitats and integrating these areas into Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). In this study, we present a spatial modelling framework using regression-based approaches to identify suitable habitats for these four species. Results show that suitable habitats of the spotted ray (25.8%) and spurdog (18.8%) are relatively well represented within existing MPAs, while those of the deep-water sharks are underrepresented (6.0% for leafscale gulper shark, and 6.8% for Portuguese dogfish). Our findings highlight the need for additional MPAs in deep-sea continental slope areas, particularly west and northwest of Scotland and Ireland. Such expansions would support OSPAR’s goal to protect 30% of its maritime area by 2030 and could benefit broader deep-sea biodiversity, including other vulnerable demersal species and benthic communities. Full article