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Article

Climate Change Alters Ecological Niches and Distribution of Two Major Forest Species in Korea, Accelerating the Pace of Forest Succession

1
Department of Biological Sciences, Kongju National University, Gongju 32588, Republic of Korea
2
Forest Management Research Division, National Institute of Forest Science, Seoul 02455, Republic of Korea
3
Biotechnology Research Institute, Kongju National University, Gongju 32588, Republic of Korea
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Forests 2025, 16(8), 1331; https://doi.org/10.3390/f16081331
Submission received: 1 July 2025 / Revised: 8 August 2025 / Accepted: 13 August 2025 / Published: 15 August 2025
(This article belongs to the Section Forest Ecology and Management)

Abstract

Temperate forest ecosystems in Korea are currently undergoing a successional transition from Pinus densiflora Siebold & Zucc. (evergreen conifer) communities to Quercus mongolica Fisch. ex Ledeb. (deciduous broadleaf) communities. This study aimed to assess interspecific differences in ecological responses to climate change [Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5] by evaluating changes in ecological niche characteristics and species distribution. Controlled-environment experiments, principal component analysis (PCA), and MaxEnt species distribution modeling were employed to quantify and predict ecological shifts in the two dominant species under climate change scenarios. Both species exhibited increases in niche breadth and interspecific overlap under climate change conditions. However, Q. mongolica showed a more pronounced increase in niche breadth compared to P. densiflora, indicating greater ecological flexibility and adaptive potential to warming conditions. According to the MaxEnt model projections, climate change is expected to result in an approximate 30% reduction in suitable habitat for P. densiflora in lowland areas. In contrast, Q. mongolica is projected to expand its suitable habitat by over 80%, notably in both low-elevation (below 800 m) and high-elevation (above 1400 m) zones, without being restricted to any specific altitudinal range. Our findings suggest that climate change may increase ecological similarity between P. densiflora and Q. mongolica, thereby raising the potential for interspecific competition. This convergence in niche traits could contribute to an accelerated successional transition, although actual competitive interactions in natural ecosystems require further empirical validation. Consequently, Korean forests are likely to transform into predominantly deciduous forest ecosystems under future climate conditions.
Keywords: niche breadth; niche overlap; phenotypic trait-based analysis; species distribution modeling; controlled environment experiment niche breadth; niche overlap; phenotypic trait-based analysis; species distribution modeling; controlled environment experiment

Share and Cite

MDPI and ACS Style

Lee, S.K.; Lee, D.-H.; Park, Y.B.; Ryu, D.H.; Kim, J.M.; Kim, E.-J.; Park, J.H.; Park, J.W.; Cho, K.M.; Seo, J.H.; et al. Climate Change Alters Ecological Niches and Distribution of Two Major Forest Species in Korea, Accelerating the Pace of Forest Succession. Forests 2025, 16, 1331. https://doi.org/10.3390/f16081331

AMA Style

Lee SK, Lee D-H, Park YB, Ryu DH, Kim JM, Kim E-J, Park JH, Park JW, Cho KM, Seo JH, et al. Climate Change Alters Ecological Niches and Distribution of Two Major Forest Species in Korea, Accelerating the Pace of Forest Succession. Forests. 2025; 16(8):1331. https://doi.org/10.3390/f16081331

Chicago/Turabian Style

Lee, Sang Kyoung, Dong-Ho Lee, Yeo Bin Park, Do Hun Ryu, Jun Mo Kim, Eui-Joo Kim, Jae Hoon Park, Ji Won Park, Kyeong Mi Cho, Ji Hyun Seo, and et al. 2025. "Climate Change Alters Ecological Niches and Distribution of Two Major Forest Species in Korea, Accelerating the Pace of Forest Succession" Forests 16, no. 8: 1331. https://doi.org/10.3390/f16081331

APA Style

Lee, S. K., Lee, D.-H., Park, Y. B., Ryu, D. H., Kim, J. M., Kim, E.-J., Park, J. H., Park, J. W., Cho, K. M., Seo, J. H., Lee, S. P., Lee, S. J., Ko, J. S., Jang, H. J., & You, Y. H. (2025). Climate Change Alters Ecological Niches and Distribution of Two Major Forest Species in Korea, Accelerating the Pace of Forest Succession. Forests, 16(8), 1331. https://doi.org/10.3390/f16081331

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