Search Results (14)

Forest fires in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region are increasing in frequency and severity, driven by climate variability, prolonged dry periods, and human activity. Nepal, a critical part of the HKH, recorded over 22,700 forest fire events in the past decade, with fire incidence nearly doubling in 2023. Despite this growing threat, operational early warning systems remain limited. This study presents Nepal’s first high-resolution early fire risk outlook system, developed by adopting the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) using meteorological forecasts from the High-Impact Weather Assessment Toolkit (HIWAT). The system generates daily and two-day forecasts using a fully automated Python-based workflow and publishes results as Web Map Services (WMS). Model validation against MODIS, VIIRS, and ground fire records for 2023 showed that over 80% of fires occurred in zones classified as Moderate to Very High risk. Spatiotemporal analysis confirmed fire seasonality, with peaks in mid-April and over 65% of fires occurring in forested areas. The system’s integration of satellite data and high-resolution forecasts improves the spatial and temporal accuracy of fire danger predictions. This research presents a novel, scalable, and operational framework tailored for data-scarce and topographically complex regions. Its transferability holds substantial potential for strengthening anticipatory fire management and climate adaptation strategies across the HKH and beyond. Full article

Wildfires represent an increasing global concern, threatening ecosystems, human settlements, and economies. Chile, characterized by diverse climatic zones and extensive forested areas, has been particularly vulnerable to wildfire events over recent decades. In this context, real, long-term data are essential to understand wildfire dynamics and to design effective early warning and prevention systems. This paper introduces a unique dataset containing detailed wildfire occurrence and damage information across Chilean municipalities from 1985 to 2024. Derived from official records by the National Forestry Corporation of Chile CONAF, this dataset encompasses key variables such as the number of fires, total burned area, estimated material damages, and the number of affected individuals. It provides an invaluable resource for researchers and policymakers aiming to improve fire risk assessments, model fire behavior, and develop AI-driven early detection systems. The temporal span of nearly four decades offers opportunities for longitudinal analyses, the study of climate change impacts on fire regimes, and the evaluation of historical prevention strategies. Furthermore, by presenting a complete spatial coverage at the municipal level, it allows fine-grained assessments of regional vulnerabilities and resilience. Full article

Forest fires pose significant threats to ecosystems, economies, and human lives. However, existing forest fire risk assessments are over-reliant on field data and expert-derived indices. Here, we assessed the nationwide forest fire risk in South Korea using a dataset of 2289 and 4578 fire and non-fire events between 2020 and 2023. Twelve remote sensing-based environmental variables were exclusively derived from Google Earth Engine, including climate, vegetation, topographic, and socio-environmental factors. After removing the snow equivalent variable owing to high collinearity, we trained three machine learning models: random forest, XGBoost, and artificial neural network, and evaluated their ability to predict forest fire risks. XGBoost showed the best performance (F1 = 0.511; AUC = 0.76), followed by random forest (F1 = 0.496) and artificial neural network (F1 = 0.468). DEM, NDVI, and population density consistently ranked as the most influential predictors. Spatial prediction maps from each model revealed consistent high-risk areas with some local prediction differences. These findings demonstrate the potential of integrating cloud-based remote sensing with machine learning for large-scale, high-resolution forest fire risk modeling and have implications for early warning systems and effective fire management in vulnerable regions. Future predictions can be improved by incorporating seasonal, real-time meteorological, and human activity data. Full article

In recent years, the frequency and severity of large-scale forest fires have increased globally, threatening forest ecosystems, human lives, and property while potentially triggering cascading ecological and social crises. Despite significant advancements in remote sensing-based forest fire monitoring, early warning systems, and fire risk zoning, post-fire thermal damage assessment remains insufficiently addressed. This study introduces an innovative approach combining multispectral imaging with a dual annealing constrained optimization algorithm to enable dynamic monitoring of fire temperature distribution. Based on this method, we develop a dynamic thermal damage assessment model to quantify thermal impacts during forest fires. The proposed model provides valuable insights for defining thermal damage zones, optimizing evacuation strategies, and supporting firefighting operations, ultimately enhancing emergency response and forest fire management efficiency. Full article

Forest fires pose a significant ecological threat, particularly in the Diamer District, Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan, where climatic factors combined with human activities have resulted in severe fire incidents. The present study sought to investigate the correlation between the incidence of forest fires and critical meteorological elements, including temperature, humidity, precipitation, and wind speed, over a period of 25 years, from 1998 to 2023. We analyzed 169 recorded fire events, collectively burning approximately 109,400 hectares of forest land. Employing sophisticated machine learning algorithms, Random Forest (RF), and Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) revealed that temperature and relative humidity during the critical fire season, which spans May through July, are key factors influencing fire activity. Conversely, wind speed was found to have a negligible impact. The RF model demonstrated superior predictive accuracy compared to the GBM model, achieving an RMSE of 5803.69 and accounting for 49.47% of the variance in the burned area. This study presents a novel methodology for predictive fire risk modeling under climate change scenarios in the region, offering significant insights into fire management strategies. Our results underscore the necessity for real-time early warning systems and adaptive management strategies to mitigate the frequency and intensity of escalating forest fires driven by climate change. Full article

The understory fine dead fuel moisture content (DFMC) is an important reference indicator for regional forest fire warnings and risk assessments, and determining it on a large scale is a critical goal. It is difficult to estimate understory fine DFMC directly from satellite images due to canopy shading. To address this issue, we used canopy meteorology estimated by Landsat images in combination with explanatory variables to construct random forest models of in-forest meteorology, and then construct random forest models by combining the meteorological factors and explanatory variables with understory fine DFMC obtained from the monitoring device to (1) investigate the feasibility of Landsat images for estimating in-forest meteorology; (2) explore the feasibility of canopy or in-forest meteorology and explanatory variables for estimating understory fine DFMC; and (3) compare the effects of each factor on model accuracy and its effect on understory fine DFMC. The results showed that random forest models improved in-forest meteorology estimation, enhancing in-forest relative humidity, vapor pressure deficit, and temperature by 50%, 34%, and 2.2%, respectively, after adding a topography factor. For estimating understory fine DFMC, models using vapor pressure deficit improved fit by 10.2% over those using relative humidity. Using in-forest meteorology improved fits by 36.2% compared to canopy meteorology. Including topographic factors improved the average fit of understory fine DFMC models by 123.1%. The most accurate model utilized in-forest vapor pressure deficit, temperature, topographic factors, vegetation index, precipitation data, and seasonal factors. Correlations indicated that slope, in-forest vapor pressure deficit, and slope direction were most closely related to understory fine DFMC. The regional understory fine-grained DFMC distribution mapped according to our method can provide important decision support for forest fire risk early warning and fire management. Full article

With the development of image processing technology and video analysis technology, forest fire monitoring technology based on video recognition is more and more important in the field of forest fire prevention and control. The objects currently applied to forest fire video image monitoring system monitoring are mainly flames and smoke. This paper proposes a forest fire risk monitoring and early warning algorithm, which integrates a deep learning model, infrared monitoring and early warning, and forest fire weather index. The algorithm first obtains the current visible image and infrared image of the same forest area, utilizing a smoke detection model based on deep learning to detect smoke in the visible image, and obtains the confidence level of the occurrence of fire in said visible image. Then, it determines whether the local temperature value of said infrared image exceeds a preset warning value, and obtains a judgment result based on the infrared image. It calculates again a current FWI based on environmental data, and determines a current fire danger level based on the current FWI. Finally, it determines whether or not to carry out a fire warning based on said fire danger level, said confidence level of the occurrence of fire in said visible image, and said judgment result based on the infrared image. The experimental results show that the accuracy of the algorithm in this paper reaches 94.12%, precision is 96.1%, recall is 93.67, and F1-score is 94.87. The algorithm in this paper can improve the accuracy of smoke identification at the early stage of forest fire danger occurrence, especially by excluding the interference caused by clouds, fog, dust, and so on, thus improving the fire danger warning accuracy. Full article

In order to investigate the geographical distribution of forest fire occurrences in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, this study employs advanced modeling techniques, utilizing diverse data sources, including fuel, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), population, meteorology, buildings, and grid data. This study integrates deep learning Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to predict potential fire incidents. The research findings can be summarized as follows: (i) The employed model exhibits very good performance, achieving an accuracy of 84.35%, a recall of 86.21%, and an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 87.67%. The application of this model significantly enhances the reliability of the forest fire occurrence model and provides a more precise assessment of its uncertainty. (ii) Spatial analysis shows that the risk of fire occurrence in most areas is low-medium, while high-risk areas are mainly concentrated in Longde County, Jingyuan County, Pengyang County, Xiji County, Yuanzhou District, Tongxin County, Xixia District, and Yinchuan City, which are mostly located in the southern, southeastern, and northwestern regions of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, with a total area of 2191.2 square kilometers. This underscores the urgent need to strengthen early warning systems and effective fire prevention and control strategies in these regions. The contributions of this research include the following: (i) The development of a highly accurate and practical provincial-level forest fire occurrence prediction framework based on grid data and deep learning CNN technology. (ii) The execution of a comprehensive forest fire prediction study in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China, incorporating multi-source data, providing valuable data references, and decision support for forest fire prevention and control. (iii) The initiation of a preliminary systematic investigation and zoning of forest fires in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, along with tailored recommendations for prevention and control measures. Full article

Affected by global warming and increased extreme weather, Hunan Province saw a phased and concentrated outbreak of forest fires in 2022, causing significant damage and impact. Predicting the occurrence of forest fires can enhance the ability to make early predictions and strengthen early warning and responses. Currently, fire prevention and extinguishing in China’s forests and grasslands face severe challenges due to the overlapping of natural and social factors. Existing forest fire occurrence prediction models mostly take into account vegetation, topographic, meteorological and human activity factors; however, the occurrence of forest fires is closely related to the forest fuel moisture content. In this study, the traditional driving factors of forest fire such as satellite hotspots, vegetation, meteorology, topography and human activities from 2004 to 2021 were introduced along with forest fuel factors (vegetation canopy water content and evapotranspiration from the top of the vegetation canopy), and a database of factors for predicting forest fire occurrence was constructed. And a forest fire occurrence prediction model was built using machine learning methods such as the Random Forest model (RF), the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree model (GBDT) and the Adaptive Augmentation Model (AdaBoost). The accuracy of the models was verified using Area Under Curve (AUC) and four other metrics. The RF model with an AUC value of 0.981 was more accurate than all other models in predicting the probability of forest fire occurrence, followed by the GBDT (AUC = 0.978) and AdaBoost (AUC = 0.891) models. The RF model, which has the best accuracy, was selected to predict the monthly forest fire probability in Changsha in 2022 and combined with the Inverse Distance Weight Interpolation method to plot the monthly forest fire probability in Changsha. We found that the monthly spatial and temporal distribution of forest fire probability in Changsha varied significantly, with March, April, May, September, October, November and December being the months with higher forest fire probability. The highest probability of forest fires occurred in the central and northern regions. In this study, the core drivers affecting the occurrence of forest fires in Changsha City were found to be vegetation canopy evapotranspiration and vegetation canopy water content. The RF model was identified as a more suitable forest fire occurrence probability prediction model for Changsha City. Meanwhile, this study found that vegetation characteristics and combustible factors have more influence on forest fire occurrence in Changsha City than meteorological factors, and surface temperature has less influence on forest fire occurrence in Changsha City. Full article

Monitoring and early warning technology for forest fires is crucial. An early warning/monitoring system for forest fires was constructed based on deep learning and the internet of things. Forest fire recognition was improved by combining the size, color, and shape characteristics of the flame, smoke, and area. Complex upper-layer fire-image features were extracted, improving the input conversion by building a forest fire risk prediction model based on an improved dynamic convolutional neural network. The proposed back propagation neural network fire (BPNNFire) algorithm calculated the image processing speed and delay rate, and data were preprocessed to remove noise. The model recognized forest fire images, and the classifier classified them to distinguish images with and without fire. Fire images were classified locally for feature extraction. Forest fire images were stored on a remote server. Existing algorithms were compared, and BPNNFire provided real-time accurate forest fire recognition at a low frame rate with 84.37% accuracy, indicating superior recognition. The maximum relative error between the measured and actual values for real-time online monitoring of forest environment indicators, such as air temperature and humidity, was 5.75%. The packet loss rate of the forest fire monitoring network was 5.99% at Longshan Forest Farm and 2.22% at Longyandong Forest Farm. Full article

An efficient monitoring of forest fire risk and its dynamic changes is an important way to prevent and reduce forest fire hazards. This study integrated the ignition effect of fire sources and the impact of landform into the calculation of forest fire risk using digital-terrain-slope factor, and developed an optimized forest fire risk model (fire-potential-index slope, FPIS). Combined with Landsat 8 satellite images, the study retrieved and analyzed the variations of forest fire risk in Zhaoqing City, Guangdong province, for four consecutive periods in the dry season, 2019. It was found that the high forest fire risk area was mainly distributed in the valley plains of Huaiji district, Fengkai district and Guangning district, the depressions of the Sihui district, and mountain-edge areas of Dinghu district and Gaoyao district, and accounted for 8.9% on 20 October but expanded to 19.89% on 7 December 2019. However, the further trend analysis indicated that the forest fire risk with significant increasing trend only accounted for 6.42% in Zhaoqing. Compared to the single high forest fire risk results, the changing trend results effectively narrowed the key areas for forest fire prevention (2.48%–12.47%) given the actual forest fires in the city. For the four forest fire events (Lingshan mountain, Hukeng industrial area, Xiangang county and Huangniuling ridge forest fires), it was found that the forest fire risk with significant increasing trend in these regions accounted for 26.63%, 35.84%, 54.6% and 73.47%, respectively, which further proved that the forest fire risk changing trend had a better indicated significance for real forest fire events than the high forest fire risk results itself (1.89%–71.69%). This study suggested that the forest fire risk increasing trend could be well used to reduce the probability of misjudgment and improve the accuracy of the early-warning areas when predicting forest fires. Full article

Climate determines the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of forest fires by affecting vegetation and the extent of drought. Thus, analyzing the dynamic change of the forest fire season and its response to climate change will play an important role in targeted adjustments of forest fire management policies and practices. In this study, we studied the spatiotemporal variations in forest fire occurrence in Fujian Province, China using the Mann–Kendall trend test and correlation analysis to analyze Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from 2001 to 2016 and meteorological data. The results show that forest fire occurrence rose first and then declined over the years, but the proportion of forest fires during the fire prevention period decreased. The forest fires increased significantly in spring and summer, exceeding the forest fires occurring in the fire prevention period in 2010. The spatial distribution of forest fires decreased from northwest to southeast coastal areas, among which the number of forest fires in the northwest mountainous areas was large in autumn and winter. The fire risk weather index was strongly and positively correlated with forest fire occurrence across various sites in the province. The findings accentuate the need for properly adjusting the fire prevention period and resource allocation, strengthening the monitoring and early warning of high fire risk weather, and publicizing wildfire safety in spring and summer. As the forest fire occurrence frequency is high in the western and northwest mountainous areas, more observation towers and forest fire monitoring facilities should be installed. Full article

The territory of the Republic of Serbia is vulnerable to various natural disasters, among which forest fires stand out. In relation with climate changes, the number of forest fires in Serbia has been increasing from year to year. Protected natural areas are especially endangered by wildfires. For Nature Park Golija, as the second largest in Serbia, with an area of 75,183 ha, and with MaB Reserve Golija-Studenica on part of its territory (53,804 ha), more attention should be paid in terms of forest fire mitigation. GIS and multi-criteria decision analysis are indispensable when it comes to spatial analysis for the purpose of natural disaster risk management. Index-based and fuzzy AHP methods were used, together with TOPSIS method for forest fire susceptibility zonation. Very high and high forest fire susceptibility zone were recorded on 26.85% (Forest Fire Susceptibility Index) and 25.75% (fuzzy AHP). The additional support for forest fire prevention is realized through an additional Internet of Thing (IoT)-based sensor network that enables the continuous collection of local meteorological and environmental data, which enables low-cost and reliable real-time fire risk assessment and detection and the improved long-term and short-term forest fire susceptibility assessment. Obtained results can be applied for adequate forest fire risk management, improvement of the monitoring, and early warning systems in the Republic of Serbia, but are also important for relevant authorities at national, regional, and local level, which will be able to coordinate and intervene in a case of emergency events. Full article

Forest fires constitute a major environmental problem in tropical countries, especially in the context of climate change and increasing human populations. This paper aims to identify the causes of frequent forest fires in Son La Province, a fire-prone and forested mountainous region in northwest Vietnam, with a view to constructing a forest fire-related database with multiple layers of natural, social and economic information, extracted largely on the basis of Landsat 7 images. The assessment followed an expert systems approach, applying multi-criteria analysis (MCA) with an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to determine the weights of the individual parameters related to forest fires. A multi-indicator function with nine parameters was constructed to establish a forest fire risk map at a scale of 1:100,000 for use at the provincial level. The results were verified through regression analysis, yielding R² = 0.86. A real-time early warning system for forest fire areas has been developed for practical use by the relevant government authorities to provide more effective forest fire prevention planning for Son La Province. Full article