Search Results (1,818)

The work presents a comprehensive analysis and costing of sugar beet cultivation in 2020–2022, for individual farms of the Lublin region. About 120 farms were analyzed. Based on this analysis, the criteria for a model farm were determined and adopted for the calculation of sugar beet production costs. ARIMA process modeling was performed, based on which forecasts were determined for several selected parameters. Customs tariffs introduced by the USA have a drastic impact on the economy. The effects of the COVID19 pandemic may also have a significant impact on the current market situation. Forecasting in the current geopolitical situation is very difficult because of the lack of stationarity of parameters. The financial result obtained by growers is mainly influenced by indirect costs absorbing 61.31% of total costs in 2020. In 2021 and 2022, indirect costs were 61.16% and 59.61% of production income, respectively. Among this group of costs, the largest share is accounted for by the costs of sowing services, sugar beet harvesting, and soil liming amounting from 14.27% to 15.92%. During the analyzed period, sugar beet cultivation remained profitable, with a production profitability index of 1.31 in 2020 and 2021, and 1.10 in 2022. The unit cost of production increased every year. In 2020, it was 14.27% and in 2021, it increased to 15.19%. The unit cost of production in 2022 was the highest, at 23.41%. Sugar beet cultivation is one of the profitable activities in agricultural production, but it is characterized by high production costs, which increased during the years analyzed (2020 to 2022), topping out at 90.87% of total revenue. The information and data presented in this study will be used in the development of a farmer-oriented application and will support the creation of an expert system for sugar beet growers. Cost forecasting will enable farmers to plan their production more effectively. Full article

Electricity distribution systems face increasing challenges due to demand growth, regulatory requirements, and the integration of distributed generation. In this context, distribution companies must make strategic and well-supported investment decisions, particularly in asset reinforcement actions such as reconductoring. This paper presents a multi-stage methodology to optimize reconductoring investments under load forecasting uncertainties. The approach combines a decomposition strategy with Monte Carlo simulation to capture demand variability. By discretizing a lognormal probability density function and selecting the largest loads in the network, the methodology balances computational feasibility with modeling accuracy. The optimization model employs exhaustive search techniques independently for each network branch, ensuring precise and consistent investment decisions. Tests conducted on the IEEE 123-bus feeder consider both operational and regulatory constraints from the Brazilian context. Results show that uncertainty-aware planning leads to a narrow investment range—between USD 55,108 and USD 66,504—highlighting the necessity of reconductoring regardless of demand scenarios. A comparative analysis of representative cases reveals consistent interventions, changes in conductor selection, and schedule adjustments based on load conditions. The proposed methodology enables flexible, cost-effective, and regulation-compliant investment planning, offering valuable insights for utilities seeking to enhance network reliability and performance while managing demand uncertainties. Full article

Air pollution threatens human health and ecosystems, making timely forecasting essential. The spatiotemporal dynamics of pollutants, shaped by various factors, challenge traditional methods. Therefore, spatiotemporal graph-based deep learning has gained attention for its ability to capture spatial and temporal dependencies within monitoring networks. However, many existing models, despite their high predictive accuracy, face computational complexity and scalability challenges. This study introduces clustered and lightweight spatio-temporal graph convolutional network with gated recurrent unit (ClusLite-STGCN-GRU), a hybrid model that integrates spatial clustering based on pollutant time series for graph construction, Copula-based dependency analysis for selecting relevant pollutants to predict PM_2.5, and graph convolution combined with gated recurrent units to extract spatiotemporal features. Unlike conventional approaches that require learning or dynamically updating adjacency matrices, ClusLite-STGCN-GRU employs a fixed, simple cluster-based structure. Experimental results on Tehran air quality data demonstrate that the proposed model not only achieves competitive predictive performance compared to more complex models, but also significantly reduces computational cost—by up to 66% in training time, 83% in memory usage, and 84% in number of floating-point operations—making it suitable for real-time applications and offering a practical balance between accuracy, interpretability, and efficiency. Full article

With the increasing uncertainty introduced by the large-scale integration of renewable energy sources, traditional power dispatching methods face significant challenges, including severe frequency fluctuations, substantial forecasting deviations, and the difficulty of balancing economic efficiency with system stability. To address these issues, a deep learning-based dispatching framework is proposed, which integrates spatiotemporal feature extraction with a stability-aware mechanism. A joint forecasting model is constructed using Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) to handle multi-source inputs, while a reinforcement learning-based stability-aware scheduler is developed to manage dynamic system responses. In addition, an uncertainty modeling mechanism combining Dropout and Bayesian networks is incorporated to enhance dispatch robustness. Experiments conducted on real-world power grid and renewable generation datasets demonstrate that the proposed forecasting module achieves approximately a 2.1% improvement in accuracy compared with Autoformer and reduces Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) by 18.1% and 14.1%, respectively, compared with traditional LSTM models. The achieved Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 5.82% outperforms all baseline models. In terms of scheduling performance, the proposed method reduces the total operating cost by 5.8% relative to Autoformer, decreases the frequency deviation from 0.158 Hz to 0.129 Hz, and increases the Critical Clearing Time (CCT) to 2.74 s, significantly enhancing dynamic system stability. Ablation studies reveal that removing the uncertainty modeling module increases the frequency deviation to 0.153 Hz and raises operational costs by approximately 6.9%, confirming the critical role of this module in maintaining robustness. Furthermore, under diverse load profiles and meteorological disturbances, the proposed method maintains stable forecasting accuracy and scheduling policy outputs, demonstrating strong generalization capabilities. Overall, the proposed approach achieves a well-balanced performance in terms of forecasting precision, system stability, and economic efficiency in power grids with high renewable energy penetration, indicating substantial potential for practical deployment and further research. Full article

Accurate forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC) tracks is critical for disaster preparedness and risk mitigation. While traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems have long served as the backbone of operational forecasting, they face limitations in computational cost and sensitivity to initial conditions. In recent years, deep learning (DL) has emerged as a promising alternative, offering data-driven modeling capabilities for capturing nonlinear spatiotemporal patterns. This paper presents a comprehensive review of DL-based approaches for TC track forecasting. We categorize all DL-based TC tracking models according to the architecture, including recurrent neural networks (RNNs), convolutional neural networks (CNNs), Transformers, graph neural networks (GNNs), generative models, and Fourier-based operators. To enable rigorous performance comparison, we introduce a Unified Geodesic Distance Error (UGDE) metric that standardizes evaluation across diverse studies and lead times. Based on this metric, we conduct a critical comparison of state-of-the-art models and identify key insights into their relative strengths, limitations, and suitable application scenarios. Building on this framework, we conduct a critical cross-model analysis that reveals key trends, performance disparities, and architectural tradeoffs. Our analysis also highlights several persistent challenges, such as long-term forecast degradation, limited physical integration, and generalization to extreme events, pointing toward future directions for developing more robust and operationally viable DL models for TC track forecasting. To support reproducibility and facilitate standardized evaluation, we release an open-source UGDE conversion tool on GitHub. Full article

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis comparing the implementation of electric and diesel buses for public transport services in the low-density area of the City of Jastrebarsko in Croatia. It utilizes a multidimensional approach and incorporates direct and indirect costs, such as vehicle acquisition, operation, charging, maintenance, and environmental impact costs during the lifecycle of the buses. The results show that, despite the higher initial investment in electric buses, these vehicles offer savings, especially when coupled with significantly reduced emissions of pollutants, which decreases indirect costs. However, local contexts differ, leading to a need to revise whether or not a municipality can finance the procurement and operations of such a fleet. The paper utilizes a robust methodological framework, integrating a proposal based on real-world data and demand and combining it with predictive analytics to forecast long-term benefits. The findings of the paper support the introduction of buses as a sustainable solution for Jastrebarsko, which provides insights for public transport planners, urban planners, and policymakers, with a discussion about the specific issues regarding the introduction, procurement, and operations of buses of different propulsion in a low-density area. Full article

Biochar, a carbon-rich material derived from biomass, presents a sustainable solution to several pressing challenges in U.S. agriculture, including soil degradation, carbon emissions, and waste management. Despite global advancements, the U.S. biochar market remains underexplored in terms of economic viability, adoption potential, and sector-specific applications. This narrative review synthesizes two decades of literature to examine biochar’s applications, production methods, and market dynamics, with a focus on its economic and environmental role within the United States. The review identifies biochar’s multifunctional benefits: enhancing soil fertility and crop productivity, sequestering carbon, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and improving water quality. Recent empirical studies also highlight biochar’s economic feasibility across global contexts, with yield increases of up to 294% and net returns exceeding USD 5000 per hectare in optimized systems. Economically, the global biochar market grew from USD 156.4 million in 2021 to USD 610.3 million in 2023, with U.S. production reaching ~50,000 metric tons annually and a market value of USD 203.4 million in 2022. Forecasts project U.S. market growth at a CAGR of 11.3%, reaching USD 478.5 million by 2030. California leads domestic adoption due to favorable policy and biomass availability. However, barriers such as inconsistent quality standards, limited awareness, high costs, and policy gaps constrain growth. This study goes beyond the existing literature by integrating market analysis, SWOT assessment, cost–benefit findings, and production technologies to highlight strategies for scaling biochar adoption. It concludes that with supportive legislation, investment in research, and enhanced supply chain transparency, biochar could become a pivotal tool for sustainable development in the U.S. agricultural and environmental sectors. Full article

As the global energy transition accelerates, the integration of solar power and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies offers new pathways for sustainable local development. This study examines four Serbian municipalities—Šabac, Sombor, Pirot, and Čačak—to assess how AI-enabled solar power systems can enhance energy resilience, reduce emissions, and support community-level sustainability goals. Using a mixed-method approach combining spatial analysis, predictive modeling, and stakeholder interviews, this research study evaluates the performance and institutional readiness of local governments in terms of implementing intelligent solar infrastructure. Key AI applications included solar potential mapping, demand-side management, and predictive maintenance of photovoltaic (PV) systems. Quantitative results show an improvement >60% in forecasting accuracy, a 64% reduction in system downtime, and a 9.7% increase in energy cost savings. These technical gains were accompanied by positive trends in SDG-aligned indicators, such as improved electricity access and local job creation in the green economy. Despite challenges related to data infrastructure, regulatory gaps, and limited AI literacy, this study finds that institutional coordination and leadership commitment are decisive for successful implementation. The proposed AI–Solar Integration for Local Sustainability (AISILS) framework offers a replicable model for emerging economies. Policy recommendations include investing in foundational digital infrastructure, promoting low-code AI platforms, and aligning AI–solar projects with SDG targets to attract EU and national funding. This study contributes new empirical evidence on the digital–renewable energy nexus in Southeast Europe and underscores the strategic role of AI in accelerating inclusive, data-driven energy transitions at the municipal level. Full article

In recent years, Transformer-based methods have shown full potential in power load forecasting problems. However, their computational cost is high, while it is difficult to capture the global characteristics of the time series. When the forecasting time length is long, the overall shift of the forecasting trend often occurs. Therefore, this paper proposes a gray relation analysis–frequency-enhanced decomposition transformer (GRA-FEDformer) method for forecasting power loads in power systems. Firstly, considering the impact of different weather factors on power loads, the correlation between various factors and power loads was analyzed using the GRA method to screen out the high-correlation factors as model inputs. Secondly, a frequency decomposition method for long short-time-scale components was utilized. Its combination with the transformer-based model can give the deep learning model an ability to simultaneously capture the fluctuating behavior of the short time scale and the overall trend of changes in the long time scale in power loads. The experimental results show that the proposed method had better forecasting performance than the other methods for a one-year dataset in a region of Morocco. In particular, the advantages of the proposed method were more obvious in the forecasting task with a longer forecasting length. Full article

The reliable and economical operation of modern power systems is increasingly complex due to the integration of diverse energy sources and dynamic load patterns. A critical challenge is maintaining the balance between electricity supply and demand within various operational constraints. This study addresses the economic scheduling of generation units using a Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) optimization model. Key constraints considered include reserve requirements, ramp rate limits, and minimum up/down time. Simulations are performed across multiple scenarios, including systems with spinning reserves, responsive demand, renewable energy integration, and energy storage systems. For each scenario, the optimal mix of generation resources is determined to meet a 24 h load forecast while minimizing operating costs. The results show that incorporating demand responsiveness and renewable resources enhances the economic efficiency, reliability, and flexibility of the power system. Full article

Demand for mental health support has exerted unprecedented pressure on statutory services. Innovative solutions such as Green or Nature-Based Social Prescribing (NBSP) programmes may help address unmet need, improve access to personalised treatment, and support the sustainable delivery of primary services within a prevention model of population health. We piloted an innovative health economics-informed Social Return on Investment (SROI) analysis and forecast of a ‘Making Well’ therapeutic craft and horticulture programme for mental health between October 2021 and March 2022. Quantitative and qualitative outcome data were collected from participants with mild-to-moderate mental health conditions at baseline and nine-weeks follow-up using a range of validated measures, including the Short Warwick–Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale, ICEpop CAPability measure for Adults (ICECAP-A), General Self-Efficacy Scale (GSES), and a bespoke Client Service Receipt Inventory (CSRI). The acceptability and feasibility of these measures were explored. Results indicate that the Making Well programme generated well-being-related social value in the range of British Pound Sterling (GBP) GBP 3.30 to GBP 4.70 for every GBP 1 invested. Our initial pilot forecast suggests that the programme has the potential to generate GBP 5.40 to GBP 7.70 for every GBP 1 invested as the programme is developed and delivered over a 12-month period. Despite the small sample size and lack of a control group, our results contribute to the evidence-base for the effectiveness and social return on investment of NBSP as a therapeutic intervention for improving health and well-being and provides an example of the use of health economic well-being outcome measures such as ICECAP-A and CSRIs in social value analysis. Combining SROI evaluation and forecast methodologies with validated quantitative outcome measures used in the field of health economics can provide valuable social cost–benefit evidence to decision-makers. Full article

Unexpected machine failures in industrial environments lead to high maintenance costs, unplanned downtime, and safety risks. This study proposes a proactive predictive model using a hybrid of eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Neural Networks (NN) to forecast machine failures. A synthetic dataset capturing recent breakdown history and time since last failure was used to simulate industrial scenarios. To address class imbalance, SMOTE and class weighting were applied, alongside a focal loss function to emphasize difficult-to-classify failures. The XGBoost model was tuned via GridSearchCV, while the NN model utilized ReLU-activated hidden layers with dropout. Evaluation using stratified 5-fold cross-validation showed that the NN achieved an F1-score of 0.7199 and a recall of 0.9545 for the minority class. XGBoost attained a higher PR AUC of 0.7126 and a more balanced precision–recall trade-off. Sample predictions demonstrated strong recall (100%) for failures, but also a high false positive rate, with most prediction probabilities clustered between 0.50–0.55. Additional benchmarking against Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and SVM further confirmed the superiority of the proposed hybrid model. Model interpretability was enhanced using SHAP and LIME, confirming that recent breakdowns and time since last failure were key predictors. While the model effectively detects failures, further improvements in feature engineering and threshold tuning are recommended to reduce false alarms and boost decision confidence. Full article

A systems-oriented review of machine learning (ML) over the entire flood management spectrum, encompassing fluvial flood control, pluvial flood management, and resiliency-risk characterization was undertaken. Deep learners like long short-term memory (LSTM) networks perform well in predicting reservoir inflows and outflows. Convolution neural networks (CNNs) and other object identification algorithms are being explored in assessing levee and flood wall failures. The use of ML methods in pump station operations is limited due to lack of public-domain datasets. Reinforcement learning (RL) has shown promise in controlling low-impact development (LID) systems for pluvial flood management. Resiliency is defined in terms of the vulnerability of a community to floods. Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) and unsupervised ML methods are used to capture vulnerability. Supervised learning is used to model flooding hazards. Conventional approaches perform better than deep learners and ensemble methods for modeling flood hazards due to paucity of data and large inter-model predictive variability. Advances in satellite-based, drone-facilitated data collection and Internet of Things (IoT)-based low-cost sensors offer new research avenues to explore. Transfer learning at ungauged basins holds promise but is largely unexplored. Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) is seeing increased use and helps the transition of ML models from black-box forecasters to knowledge-enhancing predictors. Full article

This paper presents a decentralized energy management system (EMS) based on Multilayer Perceptron Artificial Neural Networks (MLP-ANNs) and a Modified Cheetah Optimizer (MCO) to account for uncertainty in renewable generation and load demand. The proposed framework applies an MLP-ANN with Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) training for high-precision forecasts of photovoltaic/wind generation, ambient temperature, and load demand, greatly outperforming traditional statistical methods (e.g., time-series analysis) and resilient backpropagation (RP) in precision. The new MCO algorithm eliminates local trapping and premature convergence issues in classical optimization methods like Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Genetic Algorithms (GAs). Simulations on a test microgrid verily demonstrate the advantages of the framework, achieving a 26.8% cost-of-operation reduction against rule-based EMSs and classical PSO/GA, and a 15% improvement in forecast accuracy using an LM-trained MLP-ANN. Moreover, demand response programs embodied in the system reduce peak loads by 7.5% further enhancing grid stability. The MLP-ANN forecasting–MCO optimization duet is an effective and cost-competitive decentralized microgrid management solution under uncertainty. Full article

This study analyzes air pollution time-series big data to assess stationarity, seasonal patterns, and the performance of machine learning models in forecasting PM2.5 concentrations. Fifty-two low-cost sensors (LCS) were deployed across Krakow city and its surroundings (Poland), collecting hourly air quality data and generating nearly 20,000 observations per month. The network captured both spatial and temporal variability. The Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS) test confirmed trend-based non-stationarity, which was addressed through differencing, revealing distinct daily and 12 h cycles linked to traffic and temperature variations. Additive seasonal decomposition exhibited time-inconsistent residuals, leading to the adoption of multiplicative decomposition, which better captured pollution outliers associated with agricultural burning. Machine learning models—Ridge Regression, XGBoost, and LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) neural networks—were evaluated under high spatial and temporal variability (winter) and low variability (summer) conditions. Ridge Regression showed the best performance, achieving the highest $R^2$ (0.97 in winter, 0.93 in summer) and the lowest mean squared errors. XGBoost showed strong predictive capabilities but tended to overestimate moderate pollution events, while LSTM systematically underestimated PM2.5 levels in December. The residual analysis confirmed that Ridge Regression provided the most stable predictions, capturing extreme pollution episodes effectively, whereas XGBoost exhibited larger outliers. The study proved the potential of low-cost sensor networks and machine learning in urban air quality forecasting focused on rare smog episodes (RSEs). Full article