Search Results (3,970)

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are high-impact hazards in mountain regions, yet many events remain poorly documented because field access is limited and lake evolution can occur on sub-weekly time scales. Here, we used high spatiotemporal resolution PlanetScope imagery (3 m) to quantify the seasonal evolution and abrupt drainage of a moraine-dammed glacial lake in August 2025 in northern Pakistan. Historical lake dynamics were reconstructed using PlanetScope (2016–2024) imagery and multi-decadal Landsat observations (1992–2018). Climatic conditions were evaluated using ERA5-Land temperature data, and seasonal snow dynamics were characterized using MODIS and PlanetScope-based snow cover analyses. Multi-decadal satellite imagery indicates that lake formation in this catchment was historically intermittent, with no evidence of abrupt drainage before 2025, highlighting the anomalous nature of the event. PlanetScope observations show steady lake expansion throughout summer 2025, reaching a maximum area of 0.052 km² prior to the GLOF on August 22. Pre- and post-event imagery reveals no discernible landslide or impact trigger. Instead, the observations are most consistent with a failure mechanism driven by meltwater-driven lake growth and overtopping or erosion of the moraine dam. The 2025 summer season (June to September) was characterized by exceptionally warm conditions and unprecedented early snow depletion relative to the 2000–2024 baseline, suggesting a strong climatic and cryospheric contribution to the outburst. These results demonstrate the value of integrating dense time series of satellite observations and climatic data for capturing glacial-lake life cycles and diagnosing likely controls on outburst initiation. The study highlights the critical role of high-frequency satellite remote sensing for improving GLOF monitoring and early-warning capabilities in data-scarce mountain environments. Full article

The electrical system is a crucial infrastructure of modern society. It provides the energy needed for society to continue its development. However, this critical infrastructure is increasingly threatened by the extreme weather events driven by the escalating climate crisis, posing significant challenges to sustainable development and energy security. Therefore, it is important to conduct comprehensive risk analyses of the electrical system to prepare for future challenges. This paper presents an electrical risk assessment conducted within the European project ICARIA, aiming to evaluate the effects of global climate change on critical infrastructure resilience. The study improves on the first risk assessment conducted, evaluating the electrical system’s vulnerability to flooding events, such as heavy rains or rising sea levels, in the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona. A key contribution to this research is the integration of direct impact assessments and cascading effect analyses, which identify how localised failures in electrical assets can spread throughout the system, potentially leading to a blackout. The research focuses on modelling various flood projections, using extreme weather scenarios and return periods ranging from 1 to 100 years. These projections are employed to evaluate the risk assessment methodology and quantify potential impacts on the electrical grid, including Expected Annual Damage (EAD) and Energy Not Supplied Cost (ENSC). The results aim to provide policymakers and grid operators with valuable insights, enabling the development of data-driven adaptation strategies and climate-resilient infrastructure planning to mitigate the risks posed by extreme weather events. Full article

Tropical cyclones (TCs) and the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) are two of the most impactful weather systems in the tropics. For example, it is not uncommon for a strong TC to kill hundreds of people and cause tens of billions of dollars in damage. The MJO modulates not only TCs but also monsoons around the world, which contribute essential rainfall for agriculture that supports billions of people, but which also can cause deadly floods. Because of the close coupling between the MJO and TCs, as well as the several week predictability of the MJO, models that can accurately simulate both kinds of weather systems have the potential to be useful for both mid-range weather forecasting and studies of impacts of climate change. This paper describes the further development of one such model, the Lagrangian Atmospheric Model (LAM), which simulates atmospheric motions by predicting motions of individual air parcels, and which has been shown to accurately simulate the MJO in previous studies. In this study, a new parameterization of cloud albedo is included in the LAM, and the model is tuned to improve simulations of TC distributions while still maintaining a robust and realistic MJO. Objective metrics of the model basic state, MJO quality, and TC distributions are used to optimize parameter selections for the cloud albedo parameterization and convective mixing. After tuning the LAM using dozens of 3-year simulations, we conduct two longer simulations forced with observed sea surface temperatures to verify that the new version of LAM has a substantially improved representation of TCs while still maintaining a realistic MJO. Full article

As a chronic flood and erosion-prone region in India, Assam faces perpetual challenges in managing and mitigating the impacts of natural hazards every year. Despite participatory policy and communication approaches, communities in the region do not feel included in the planning and decision-making processes of mitigation and prevention. The study conducts a stakeholder perception analysis using a qualitative approach through Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and semi-structured and structured interviews with flood-prone communities of Barpeta, Dibrugarh, and Majuli districts in Assam. The thematic analysis revealed multiple gaps in the policy planning and implementation stages where the traditional knowledge of communities has been ignored, while also revealing gendered silences and communication fallouts. The increasing frequency and intensity of floods, along with untimely modern interventions, have convinced communities to combine modern mitigation strategies with their traditional mitigation strategies like stilt houses, but engineers and policymakers often bypass the traditional knowledge of communities. The study calls for a multi-faceted approach to flood and erosion management by addressing the infrastructural and socio-cultural challenges, and involving communities more actively in the planning and decision-making processes, re-emphasizing the importance of SDG 13 and SDG 17. Full article

Accurate measurement of streamflow is fundamental for water resources management, ecological conservation, flash flood early warning, and climate change impact studies. This study presents a proof of concept on the usage of Internet of Things (IoT) for automatic streamflow measurements using commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) hardware. The system is designed, implemented, and experimentally evaluated as a low-cost, solar-powered IoT device tailored to small-order streams and headwater tributaries. At its core is the Hall-effect YF-S201 flow sensor. Although primarily designed for closed-conduit applications, the sensor was tested in a controlled setup where stream water was diverted into a short pipe section, enabling continuous monitoring and calibration. This paper provides details on the design and validation of a low-cost (approximately 24 Euros), solar-powered streamflow measurement system based on a water flow sensor, using wireless communications, and cloud storage based on an ESP32 board, PostgreSQL, and a web interface. The device was tested in a simulated environment. Results indicate the proposed device reliably tracks flow variability, while offering portability, energy autonomy, and cost efficiency, and may serve as a feasible alternative for low-infrastructure, temporary deployments. Full article

The Zhuanghe coast in the northern part of the Yellow Sea is one of China’s important fishing and ocean engineering areas. Frequent storm surge events pose a significant threat to residents’ safety and properties. This study used the coupled Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM) and the Surface Wave Model (FVCOM-SWAVE) to investigate storm surges and wave heights during Typhoons Muifa (1109) and Lekima (1909) in the northern parts of the Yellow Sea and analyze the impact of the typhoon parameters on flood inundation on the Zhuanghe coast. The wind stress comparison in the coupled wave–current model uses synthetic wind field data formed by superimposing ERA5 wind fields with a parameterized typhoon model. The results showed that the simulated and measured tide levels, wave heights, and storm surges were in good agreement, indicating that the coupled model accurately reproduced the dynamics of the storm surges and wave heights during the two typhoons. The maximum significant wave height (H_s) exhibited a right-skewed distribution in the two typhoons’ paths, with extreme values consistently located to the right of the typhoon’s center. The decrease in atmospheric pressure at the center of Typhoon Muifa was significantly, nonlinearly, and positively correlated with the severity of storm surge disasters. A significant correlation was observed between the path of Typhoon Muifa and the disaster intensity. Full article

A two-dimensional flow model was constructed to assess the impact of levee axis adjustment on flow variation at Xinsha Island. The results indicate that the longer the return periods, the higher the water level in the southern waterway, with a maximum increase of 0.183 m. Conversely, the northern waterway exhibits a water level decrease, with a maximum reduction of 0.128 m. The flow velocity in the southern waterway diminished by roughly 0.3 m/s, but the flow velocity in the northern waterway rose by a maximum of 0.45 m/s. After the levee axis is adjusted, the flow diversion capacity of the north waterway is effectively enhanced, thereby benefiting flood regulation. Relationships between variations in upstream boundary discharge and flow variations surrounding Xinsha Island are presented to facilitate swift and dependable forecasts. These findings clearly illustrate the influence of levee axis changes on the hydrodynamic properties of the river. Full article

Flood damage assessment remains challenging, as conventional flood risk management mainly relies on hydraulic hazard maps that do not explicitly reproduce observed damage patterns. Recent advances in remote sensing and machine learning (ML) enable the integration of environmental and socio-economic data with historical impact information to improve flood damage modeling. This study proposes an explainable machine learning framework for flood damage susceptibility mapping, using observed institutional damage records from the 2011 and 2013 flood events combined with 17 geospatial flood risk factors (FRFs) representing hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. This approach enables the capture of non-linear relationships between flood damage and FRFs. For comparison purposes, the same framework was also applied using hydraulically modeled flood extents corresponding to return periods of 30, 200, and 500 years. The framework was tested along the Basilicata Ionian coast in southern Italy, a Mediterranean region characterized by complex geomorphology, intense rainfall events, and recurrent flood impacts. An eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model was trained using 17 FRFs related to hazard, exposure, and vulnerability at a spatial resolution of 20 m. The model achieved high performance with an accuracy of 0.988, an F1-score for the minority class of 0.860, and an ROC-AUC (test) of 0.996. High to very high flood damage probability was predicted in approximately 4.1% of the study area, mainly in low-lying floodplains near river corridors and infrastructure. SHAP-based explainability analysis revealed that damage susceptibility was predominantly driven by hazard and exposure factors: Drainage density (17.10%), Railway distance (16.33%), and Elevation (15.42%), extreme precipitation (Max rainfall, 10.66%) and Street distance (7.51%), with socio-economic vulnerability contributing less than 4%. The observed damage target exhibited clear threshold-like patterns (e.g., sharp risk increases below ~25/35 m elevation or within ~150/200 m of road infrastructure), contrasting with the smoother, continuous gradients produced by hydraulic scenarios. This analysis identified the most influential predictors and their response ranges. The proposed framework complements hydraulic hazard mapping by explicitly modeling observed flood damage, supporting flood risk assessment in flood-prone coastal regions. Full article

The carbonate massifs of the southern Italian Apennines host extensive karst aquifers, which represent the principal drinking water resources. This study focuses on the Dragone Plain polje, a vast closed karst depression located in the main recharge sector of the Terminio–Tuoro carbonate massif. The polje drains a ~55 km² endorheic catchment and may be flooded during the cold and wet season, forming a temporary lake. We employed continuous hydroclimatic time series (rainfall, groundwater level, spring discharge, and river level) together with sparse Sentinel-2 true color satellite images for the period 2020–2024 to analyze the flooding process in the polje and its hydraulic connection with the saturated zone of the karst aquifer. Results indicate that lake formation depends on the balance among soil moisture, rainfall intensity, and runoff development, which were modeled on a daily scale. Daily recharge was also estimated and compared with groundwater level time series from the deep karst aquifer. The modeling was integrated with cross-correlation analysis of the time series, providing insights into the propagation of precipitation pulses through the hydrogeological system. This case study represents an important example for understanding the relationship between karst polje hydrological functioning and climate in a Mediterranean area. Full article

Oceanfront relief varies along coastlines and serves as the first barrier to wave and surge damage. However, forecasted increases in storm frequency and sea levels are anticipated to enhance coastal erosion, potentially weakening this protection. The land–sea transition is variable along the New England coast, USA, and this variability has produced a range of coastal morphologies that can vary over short distances. It is important to track the beach transition zone to better understand transformations of the system and related hazard risks. A combination of field and computer-based methods was used to evaluate the beach transition zone of southwestern Rhode Island to determine alongshore variability and dynamics. More specifically, a decadal-scale study was conducted to examine changes in morphology from 2011 to 2022, and a short-term study at South Kingstown Town Beach examined changes from November 2023 to January 2024 using time-series drone-derived elevations. Classification of over 500 cross-shore transects illustrated the dominance of sedimentary shorelines, with smaller areas of rocky outcrops and hardening. Analysis of four different years (2011, 2014, 2018, and 2022) determined that beaches with dune morphology were the most common type of transition zone (41–47% of the transects) and transects with a high bank upland were the next most frequent class (34–41%). Following Hurricane Sandy in 2012, a 6% decrease in the number of dune-classified transects was measured; however, one-third of those recovered dune morphology by 2022. The greatest beach transformations over the short-term study occurred in response to strong storms in the 2023–2024 winter season, during which lateral beach movement (erosion) exceeded 15 m in portions of South Kingstown Town Beach. Dune erosion was accompanied by overwash flooding and deposition, and the area remained low-lying and thus vulnerable to future impacts. The beach transition zone classification and insights from this research will be informative for future planning by coastal communities by determining at-risk shorelines based on underlying geology and the stability of morphological features. Full article

This paper explores the behavioural change process initiated within the Gdańsk Coastal City Living Lab (CCLL)—a site-based effort, initiated under the H2020 SCORE project and significantly deepened through the Horizon Europe PRO-CLIMATE project—through the lens of transforming human–nature relationships for sustainable urban biodiversity conservation. While SCORE established the technical baseline for Nature-based Solutions (NbSs), PRO-CLIMATE provides the critical behavioural framework to ensure these solutions are socially adopted and sustained. Located in a flood-prone coastal city, the Gdańsk CCLL addresses the critical need for nature-based solutions (NbSs) in minimizing the negative impacts of climate change, particularly pluvial flooding. At the heart of this initiative is a participatory change process facilitated by local Change Agents in collaboration with key stakeholders across water management, local government, academia, and civil society. Drawing on interdisciplinary insights from social science, the paper uses the Nature Futures Framework to analyse how conservation actions are influenced by the relational, intrinsic, and instrumental values that stakeholders and residents attach to nature. The paper situates these values in the Gdańsk context and examines how they shape motivations and willingness to engage in urban NbS, such as green roofs, retention parks, and rainwater gardens. The study presents qualitative findings from stakeholder engagement workshops, Change Agents’ reflections, and support mechanisms from behavioural change experts. It evaluates how behavioural change was facilitated through shared vision building, feedback loops, and trust-based relationships, and how barriers were negotiated. A key contribution of the paper is the exploration of how bottom-up and top-down processes intersect in urban adaptation strategies and how behavioural change frameworks can be designed to institutionalise sustainable human–nature interactions in urban governance. The Gdańsk case offers transferable insights for other cities facing climate vulnerabilities while striving to embed biodiversity conservation into everyday practice. Full article

The growing complexity of human systems and the increasing frequency of climate-driven hazards have transformed some disasters from isolated events into cascading phenomena which propagate through critical infrastructure networks, disrupting essential services and amplifying systemic risk. This work examines the impacts of extreme storms and subsequent flooding on critical entities as defined under the new EU Directive (Critical Entities Resilience, CER). This study introduces a structured Critical Entities Disruption Database—Greece (CEDD-GR), as a methodological framework for systematically recording and analysing disruptions to critical entities, and applies it to the case of Storm Daniel (2023), one of the most severe flood events recorded in Greece. The analysis identified direct impacts across eight of the eleven sectors defined in the CER Directive, namely, energy, transport, health, drinking water, wastewater, public administration, digital infrastructure and food production, processing and distribution. A total of 21 different types of critical entities were documented, revealing the mechanisms through which failures affected different subsectors. The results underscore the systemic fragility of critical entities when exposed to extreme storms, compound flooding, and mass wasting processes (landslides, ground subsidence) and highlight the need for integrated resilience planning in line with the CER framework. Full article

Long-term stability of dam infrastructure is crucial for flood protection, water resource management, and drinking water supply. In many regions, the increasing impact of climate change and structural aging necessitates advanced monitoring approaches for embankment and gravity dams. PSI has emerged as a valuable technique for detecting surface deformation rates with millimeter precision. This study presents a comprehensive monitoring concept that combines satellite-based PSI analyses with the first operational use of ECRs at dam sites in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), Germany. Over a period of more than two years, ECRs were observed under real-world conditions using Sentinel-1 data. Compared to traditional passive reflectors, ECRs offer improved signal stability and a compact design, making them particularly suitable for confined or sensitive dam environments. The analysis of displacement time series confirms the suitability of ECRs for long-term deformation monitoring in complex dam settings. Intercomparison of two PSI time series demonstrated high internal consistency (correlation > 0.9, RMSE < 1 mm), while validation against in situ measurements confirmed millimeter-level agreement with RMSE values between 2 and 5 mm and correlations up to 0.7. In addition, a dedicated web-based platform was developed to provide processed ECR-based PSI results to dam operators, offering interactive visualizations, time-series access, and standardized downloads. This integration of advanced interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) methods, innovative hardware, and user-oriented service delivery marks a significant step toward operational dam monitoring using satellite remote sensing. Full article

Building the capacity of health and social care professionals in health and migration is essential for the East and Horn of Africa region, which, according to UNHCR, hosted 23.6 million forcibly displaced people who have fled conflicts and climate change-related floods and droughts by the end of 2024. There is a high demand to build a critical mass of expertise and experts on health and migration that can engage in policy, programme and practice development. To contribute to the building of a community of experts, an online course on health and migration was developed and five courses were implemented from 2021 to 2024 with the participation of international experts in migration and health, universities and international institutions (WHO; UNAIDS, IGAD), in collaboration with the UN International Organisation for Migration (IOM), the Makerere University, Uganda, and the Center for Health and Migration Vienna, Austria (CHM), and with funding from the Austrian Federal Ministry of the Interior. The courses lasted nine weeks each, offering two three-hour sessions per week, and were complimented by discussion forums and webinars on topics of special interest, e.g., climate change. Participants were working in policy development, programme coordination, research, and service delivery in health and social care in communities affected by migration, cross-border settings, refugee and IDP settlements in the East and Horn of Africa geographic region. The importance of the course for capacity building in the respective countries as well as for personal development is underlined by continuous high numbers of applications from highly qualified people and highly positive evaluations from participants, and the demonstrated impact on the practice of service provision for refugees and IDPs. Future considerations should concentrate on developing sustainable frameworks for courses, including intergovernmental collaboration and community development. Full article

The assessment of the hydromorphological state of a river is fundamental for both correctly evaluating its ecological conditions and planning its restoration. Despite this, there is a critical gap in studies on this topic in Southern Italy, although they are recommended by several EU Framework Directives. This research provides a contribution to filling this gap by assessing the hydromorphological quality of the Middle and Lower Sabato River (Southern Italy), by using the method officially adopted by the Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA), named IDRAIM. The method presents the advantage of considering the specific Italian context in terms of channel adjustments and anthropogenic impacts. However, it also considers pre-existing geomorphological approaches developed in other countries that make the method applicable at least in the entire Mediterranean area. To apply the method, in this study, we used data obtained by GIS analysis, remotely sensed data, and field-surveyed data. The study has highlighted that, in the Middle and Lower Sabato R., eight river reaches out-of-fifteen have displayed a “moderate or sufficient” morphological quality, five reaches a “good” morphological quality, while the remaining two reaches have been characterized by a “poor” morphological quality. Functional alterations have seemed to prevail over artificiality and intensity of short-term channel adjustments in conditioning hydromorphological quality. These results will be a key starting point for already planned studies dealing with both the restoration of the Sabato R. and flood hazard and risk assessment. Full article