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Keywords = firm financial performance

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23 pages, 2216 KiB  
Article
Development of Financial Indicator Set for Automotive Stock Performance Prediction Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System
by Tamás Szabó, Sándor Gáspár and Szilárd Hegedűs
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2025, 18(8), 435; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm18080435 - 5 Aug 2025
Abstract
This study investigates the predictive performance of financial indicators in forecasting stock prices within the automotive sector using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). In light of the growing complexity of global financial markets and the increasing demand for automated, data-driven forecasting models, [...] Read more.
This study investigates the predictive performance of financial indicators in forecasting stock prices within the automotive sector using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). In light of the growing complexity of global financial markets and the increasing demand for automated, data-driven forecasting models, this research aims to identify those financial ratios that most accurately reflect price dynamics in this specific industry. The model incorporates four widely used financial indicators, return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE), earnings per share (EPS), and profit margin (PM), as inputs. The analysis is based on real financial and market data from automotive companies, and model performance was assessed using RMSE, nRMSE, and confidence intervals. The results indicate that the full model, including all four indicators, achieved the highest accuracy and prediction stability, while the exclusion of ROA or ROE significantly deteriorated model performance. These findings challenge the weak-form efficiency hypothesis and underscore the relevance of firm-level fundamentals in stock price formation. This study’s sector-specific approach highlights the importance of tailoring predictive models to industry characteristics, offering implications for both financial modeling and investment strategies. Future research directions include expanding the indicator set, increasing the sample size, and testing the model across additional industry domains. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Economics and Finance)
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43 pages, 1289 KiB  
Article
Big Data Meets Jugaad: Cultural Innovation Strategies for Sustainable Performance in Resource-Constrained Developing Economies
by Xuemei Liu, Assad Latif, Mohammed Maray, Ansar Munir Shah and Muhammad Ramzan
Sustainability 2025, 17(15), 7087; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17157087 - 5 Aug 2025
Abstract
This study investigates the role of Big Data Analytics Capabilities (BDACs) in ambidexterity explorative innovation (EXPLRI) and exploitative (EXPLOI) innovation for achieving a sustainable performance (SP) in the manufacturing sector of a resource-constrained developing economy. While a BDAC has been widely linked to [...] Read more.
This study investigates the role of Big Data Analytics Capabilities (BDACs) in ambidexterity explorative innovation (EXPLRI) and exploitative (EXPLOI) innovation for achieving a sustainable performance (SP) in the manufacturing sector of a resource-constrained developing economy. While a BDAC has been widely linked to innovation in developed economies, its effectiveness in developing contexts shaped by indigenous innovation practices like Jugaad remains underexplored. Anchored in the Resource-Based View (RBV) and Dynamic Capabilities (DC) theory, we propose a model where the BDAC enhances both EXPLRI and EXPLOI, which subsequently leads to an improved sustainable performance. We further examine the Jugaad capability as a cultural moderator. Using survey data from 418 manufacturing firms and analyzed via Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM), results confirm that BDA capabilities significantly boost both types of innovations, which positively impact sustainable performance dimensions. Notably, Jugaad positively moderates the relationship between EXPLOI and financial, innovation, and operational performance but negatively moderates the link between EXPLRI and innovation performance. These findings highlight the nuanced influence of culturally embedded innovation practices in BDAC-driven ecosystems. This study contributes by extending the RBV–DC framework to include cultural innovation capabilities and empirically validating the contingent role of Jugaad in enhancing or constraining innovation outcomes. This study also validated the Jugaad capability measurement instrument for the first time in the context of Pakistan. For practitioners, aligning data analytics strategies with local innovative cultures is vital for sustainable growth in emerging markets. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Economic and Business Aspects of Sustainability)
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29 pages, 1867 KiB  
Article
Exploring the Triple Dividend Effect and Threshold Effect of Environmental Protection Tax: Evidence from Chinese Listed Companies
by Chenghao Ye, Hongjie Gao and Igor A. Mayburov
Sustainability 2025, 17(15), 7038; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17157038 - 3 Aug 2025
Viewed by 99
Abstract
This study uses financial data from 872 Chinese listed companies (2018–2022). It tests the triple dividend effect and threshold effect of China’s environmental protection tax (EPT) using high-dimensional fixed effects models and panel threshold models. We document that (1) EPT creates an environmental [...] Read more.
This study uses financial data from 872 Chinese listed companies (2018–2022). It tests the triple dividend effect and threshold effect of China’s environmental protection tax (EPT) using high-dimensional fixed effects models and panel threshold models. We document that (1) EPT creates an environmental dividend for Chinese listed companies. It significantly reduces pollution emissions. A 1-unit tax increase reduces LnTPPE by 2.5%. (2) EPT creates a significant innovation dividend. It forces enterprises to improve the quality of authorized patents. A 1-unit tax increase raises patent technological complexity by 0.79%. (3) EPT creates an economic dividend. It significantly improves firm performance. A 1-unit tax increase raises relative corporate revenue by 38.1%. (4) EPT exerts significant threshold effects on micro-level triple dividend outcomes among Chinese listed companies. A heterogeneity analysis shows significant differences in threshold effects between non-heavily polluting and heavily polluting industries. This study confirms that China’s EPT generates a micro-level triple dividend effect alongside coexisting threshold effects for listed companies. This provides literature references for China to design and implement differentiated policies and offers a quantitative empirical case for implementing globally sustainable EPT strategies. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Air, Climate Change and Sustainability)
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22 pages, 405 KiB  
Article
The Impact of ESG Performance on Corporate Investment Efficiency: Evidence from Chinese Listed Companies
by Zhuo Li, Yeteng Ma, Li He and Zhili Tan
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2025, 18(8), 427; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm18080427 - 1 Aug 2025
Viewed by 234
Abstract
Recent theoretical and empirical studies highlight that information asymmetry and owner–manager conflict of interest can distort corporate investment decisions. Building on this premise, we hypothesize that superior environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance mitigates these frictions by (H1) alleviating financing constraints and (H2) [...] Read more.
Recent theoretical and empirical studies highlight that information asymmetry and owner–manager conflict of interest can distort corporate investment decisions. Building on this premise, we hypothesize that superior environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance mitigates these frictions by (H1) alleviating financing constraints and (H2) intensifying external analyst scrutiny. To test these hypotheses, we examine all Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share non-financial firms from 2009 to 2023. Using panel fixed-effects and two-stage least squares with an industry–province–year instrument, we find that higher ESG performance significantly reduces investment inefficiency; the effect operates through both lower financing constraints and greater analyst coverage. Heterogeneity analyses reveal that the improvement is pronounced in small non-state-owned, non-high-carbon firms but absent in large state-owned high-carbon emitters. These findings enrich the literature on ESG and corporate performance and offer actionable insights for regulators and investors seeking high-quality development. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Business and Entrepreneurship)
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26 pages, 344 KiB  
Article
The Impact of Green Bond Issuance on Corporate Environmental and Financial Performance: An Empirical Study of Japanese Listed Firms
by Yutong Bai
Int. J. Financial Stud. 2025, 13(3), 141; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs13030141 - 1 Aug 2025
Viewed by 260
Abstract
Based on firm-level data of Japanese listed companies for the period of 2013–2022, this study conducts an empirical analysis to investigate how the issuance of green bonds influences corporate environmental and financial performance. The results show that the green bond issuance demonstrates a [...] Read more.
Based on firm-level data of Japanese listed companies for the period of 2013–2022, this study conducts an empirical analysis to investigate how the issuance of green bonds influences corporate environmental and financial performance. The results show that the green bond issuance demonstrates a reduction in corporate greenhouse gas emission intensity and energy consumption intensity in the long term. Moreover, the issuance of green bonds enhances the financial performance of firms in the long run. However, the positive effect of green bond issuance on corporate environmental and financial performance is significant only among firms that have set specific quantitative environmental targets. In addition, for manufacturing and transportation green bond issuers that have set specific quantitative environmental targets, the improvement in environmental performance is evident in both the long and short term. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Investment and Sustainable Finance)
33 pages, 1497 KiB  
Article
Beyond Compliance: How Disruptive Innovation Unleashes ESG Value Under Digital Institutional Pressure
by Fang Zhang and Jianhua Zhu
Systems 2025, 13(8), 644; https://doi.org/10.3390/systems13080644 - 1 Aug 2025
Viewed by 351
Abstract
Amid intensifying global ESG regulations and the expanding influence of green finance, China’s digital economy policies have emerged as key institutional instruments for promoting corporate sustainability. Leveraging the implementation of the National Big Data Comprehensive Pilot Zone as a quasi-natural experiment, this study [...] Read more.
Amid intensifying global ESG regulations and the expanding influence of green finance, China’s digital economy policies have emerged as key institutional instruments for promoting corporate sustainability. Leveraging the implementation of the National Big Data Comprehensive Pilot Zone as a quasi-natural experiment, this study utilizes panel data of Chinese listed firms from 2009 to 2023 and applies multi-period Difference-in-Differences (DID) and Spatial DID models to rigorously identify the policy’s effects on corporate ESG performance. Empirical results indicate that the impact of digital economy policy is not exerted through a direct linear pathway but operates via three institutional mechanisms, enhanced information transparency, eased financing constraints, and expanded fiscal support, collectively constructing a logic of “institutional embedding–governance restructuring.” Moreover, disruptive technological innovation significantly amplifies the effects of the transparency and fiscal mechanisms, but exhibits no statistically significant moderating effect on the financing constraint pathway, suggesting a misalignment between innovation heterogeneity and financial responsiveness. Further heterogeneity analysis confirms that the policy effect is concentrated among firms characterized by robust governance structures, high levels of property rights marketization, and greater digital maturity. This study contributes to the literature by developing an integrated moderated mediation framework rooted in institutional theory, agency theory, and dynamic capabilities theory. The findings advance the theoretical understanding of ESG policy transmission by unpacking the micro-foundations of institutional response under digital policy regimes, while offering actionable insights into the strategic alignment of digital transformation and sustainability-oriented governance. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Systems Practice in Social Science)
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28 pages, 368 KiB  
Article
Financial Constraints and the ESG–Firm Performance Nexus in the Automotive Industry: Evidence from a Global Panel Study
by Burcu Dinçergök and Burak Pirgaip
Sustainability 2025, 17(15), 6985; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17156985 - 31 Jul 2025
Viewed by 292
Abstract
This study examines the complex relationship between environmental, social, and governance (ESG) and financial performance in the automotive industry, with a particular focus on how financial constraints shape this relationship. Using a global data set for the period 2008 to 2023 and employing [...] Read more.
This study examines the complex relationship between environmental, social, and governance (ESG) and financial performance in the automotive industry, with a particular focus on how financial constraints shape this relationship. Using a global data set for the period 2008 to 2023 and employing a range of panel data techniques, including those addressing endogeneity concerns, we find that higher ESG scores positively affect financial performance. Specifically, a one-point rise in ESG score corresponds to an estimated 1–1.7% increase in the market-to-book ratio, with the effect reaching approximately 1.6% for firms facing financial constraints. These findings highlight the economic significance of ESG engagement, particularly for resource-constrained companies. The novelty of this study is that it focuses on the automotive sector, an industry with limited ESG-specific research, and that it makes a theoretical contribution by linking ESG performance outcomes to financial constraints, an angle largely overlooked in prior research. The findings offer critical policy insights, emphasizing the strategic importance of ESG initiatives for value creation under varying financial conditions. Full article
33 pages, 1146 KiB  
Article
Impact of Security Management Activities on Corporate Performance
by Hyunwoo Cho and Keuntae Cho
Systems 2025, 13(8), 633; https://doi.org/10.3390/systems13080633 - 28 Jul 2025
Viewed by 165
Abstract
The digital business environment is rapidly evolving with advancements in information technology (IT), increasing the risk of information security incidents. Grounded in the resource-based view and in contingency theory, this study adopts a different approach from prior research by conceptualizing security management activities [...] Read more.
The digital business environment is rapidly evolving with advancements in information technology (IT), increasing the risk of information security incidents. Grounded in the resource-based view and in contingency theory, this study adopts a different approach from prior research by conceptualizing security management activities not as mere risk control mechanisms, but as strategic innovation drivers that can enhance corporate performance (sales revenue and operating profit). The authors develop a research model with six independent variables, including internal and external security management activities, CISO role configuration (independent or dual-role with CIO), and investment levels in IT and information security. The dependent variables include sales revenue and operating profit, with ISMS or ISO certification as a moderating variable. Using information security (IS) disclosures and financial data from 545 Korean firms that have reported their security management activities to the Ministry of Science and ICT, multiple regression and moderation analyses reveal that high IT investment negatively impacts performance, but this effect is mitigated when formal security systems, like ISMS or ISO, are in place. The results suggest that integrating recognized security frameworks into management strategies can enhance both innovation and financial outcomes, encouraging a proactive approach to security management. Full article
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27 pages, 406 KiB  
Article
Value Creation Through Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Disclosures
by Amina Hamdouni
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2025, 18(8), 415; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm18080415 - 27 Jul 2025
Viewed by 614
Abstract
This study investigates the impact of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) disclosure on value creation in a balanced panel of 100 non-financial Sharia-compliant firms listed on the Saudi Stock Exchange over the period 2014–2023. The analysis employs a combination of econometric techniques, including [...] Read more.
This study investigates the impact of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) disclosure on value creation in a balanced panel of 100 non-financial Sharia-compliant firms listed on the Saudi Stock Exchange over the period 2014–2023. The analysis employs a combination of econometric techniques, including fixed effects models with Driscoll–Kraay standard errors, Pooled Ordinary Least Squares (POLS) with Driscoll–Kraay standard errors and industry and year dummies, and two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation to address potential endogeneity and omitted variable bias. Value creation is measured using Tobin’s Q (TBQ), Return on Assets (ROA), and Return on Equity (ROE). The models also control for firm-specific variables such as firm size, leverage, asset tangibility, firm age, growth opportunities, and market capitalization. The findings reveal that ESG disclosure has a positive and statistically significant effect on firm value across all three performance measures. Furthermore, firm size significantly moderates this relationship, with larger Sharia-compliant firms experiencing greater value gains from ESG practices. These results align with agency, stakeholder, and signaling theories, emphasizing the role of ESG in enhancing transparency, reducing information asymmetry, and strengthening stakeholder trust. The study provides empirical evidence relevant to policymakers, investors, and firms striving to achieve Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 sustainability goals. Full article
23 pages, 684 KiB  
Article
An Analysis of the Relationship Between ESG Activities and the Financial Performance of Japanese Companies Toward Sustainable Development
by Takafumi Ikuta and Hidemichi Fujii
Sustainability 2025, 17(15), 6790; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17156790 - 25 Jul 2025
Viewed by 277
Abstract
Demands for companies to comply with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) requirements are growing, and companies are also expected to play a role in promoting sustainable development. For companies to achieve sustainable growth while addressing ESG, it must be understood whether ESG activities [...] Read more.
Demands for companies to comply with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) requirements are growing, and companies are also expected to play a role in promoting sustainable development. For companies to achieve sustainable growth while addressing ESG, it must be understood whether ESG activities promote improved corporate financial performance. We conducted a five-year panel data analysis of 635 Japanese firms from FY 2019 to FY 2023, using the PBR, PER, and ROE financial indicators as the dependent variables and CSR ratings in the human resource utilization (HR), environment (E), governance (G), and social (S) categories as the independent variables. The results revealed that, depending on the combination of ESG field and financial indicators, companies with advanced ESG initiatives had greater financial performance, with some cases showing a nonlinear relationship; differences in the results between manufacturing and nonmanufacturing industries were also observed. For companies to effectively advance ESG activities, it is important to clarify the objectives and results for each ESG category. For policymakers to consider measures to encourage companies’ ESG activities, it is also important to design finely tuned regulations and incentives according to the ESG category and industry characteristics. Full article
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14 pages, 243 KiB  
Entry
COSO-Based Internal Control and Comprehensive Enterprise Risk Management: Institutional Background and Research Evidence from China
by Hanwen Chen, Shenghua Wang, Daoguang Yang and Nan Zhou
Encyclopedia 2025, 5(3), 106; https://doi.org/10.3390/encyclopedia5030106 - 23 Jul 2025
Viewed by 542
Definition
China’s internal control framework follows the Committee of Sponsoring Organizations (COSO) framework, emphasizing enterprise risk management and encompassing financial reporting, operations, compliance, and strategies. The authors review research that uses the COSO-based Internal Control Index to assess internal control quality among all publicly [...] Read more.
China’s internal control framework follows the Committee of Sponsoring Organizations (COSO) framework, emphasizing enterprise risk management and encompassing financial reporting, operations, compliance, and strategies. The authors review research that uses the COSO-based Internal Control Index to assess internal control quality among all publicly listed firms in China. Unlike the binary classification of internal control weaknesses under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act Section 404, this continuous index captures more nuanced variations in internal control effectiveness and provides two key advantages over traditional assessment of internal control over financial reporting (ICFR). First, while financial reporting can enhance a firm’s monitoring and decision-support systems, the underlying information is determined by operations. Thus, internal control over operations has a greater impact on a firm’s performance than ICFR. While U.S.-based research argues that the effects of ICFR extend to operations, the COSO-based index includes operational controls, allowing for a more direct study of internal control effects. Second, many U.S. corporations fail to report internal control weaknesses, particularly during misstatement years. In contrast, the COSO-based index, compiled by independent scholars, avoids managerial incentives to withhold negative internal control information. Covering institutional background and research evidence from China, the authors survey a wide range of internal control studies related to various aspects of enterprise risk management, such as earnings quality, crash risk, stock liquidity, resource extraction, cash holdings, mergers and acquisitions, corporate innovation, receivable management, operational efficiency, tax avoidance, and diversification strategy. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Social Sciences)
23 pages, 941 KiB  
Article
Enterprise Architecture for Sustainable SME Resilience: Exploring Change Triggers, Adaptive Capabilities, and Financial Performance in Developing Economies
by Javeria Younus Hamidani and Haider Ali
Sustainability 2025, 17(15), 6688; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17156688 - 22 Jul 2025
Viewed by 254
Abstract
Enterprise architecture (EA) provides a strategic foundation for aligning business processes, IT infrastructure, and organizational strategy, enabling firms to navigate uncertainty and complexity. In developing economies, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) face significant challenges in maintaining financial resilience and sustainable growth amidst frequent [...] Read more.
Enterprise architecture (EA) provides a strategic foundation for aligning business processes, IT infrastructure, and organizational strategy, enabling firms to navigate uncertainty and complexity. In developing economies, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) face significant challenges in maintaining financial resilience and sustainable growth amidst frequent disruptions. This study investigates how EA-driven change events affect SME financial performance by activating three key adaptive mechanisms: improvisational capability, flexible IT systems, and organizational culture. A novel classification of EA change triggers is proposed to guide adaptive responses. Using survey data from 291 Pakistani SMEs collected during the COVID-19 crisis, the study employs structural equation modeling (SEM) to validate the conceptual model. The results indicate that improvisational capability and flexible IT systems significantly enhance financial performance, while the mediating role of organizational culture is statistically insignificant. This study contributes to EA and sustainability literature by integrating a typology of EA triggers with adaptive capabilities theory and testing their effects in a real-world crisis context. Full article
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26 pages, 502 KiB  
Article
Ethical Leadership and Its Impact on Corporate Sustainability and Financial Performance: The Role of Alignment with the Sustainable Development Goals
by Aws AlHares
Sustainability 2025, 17(15), 6682; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17156682 - 22 Jul 2025
Viewed by 526
Abstract
This study examines the influence of ethical leadership on corporate sustainability and financial performance, highlighting the moderating effect of firms’ commitment to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Utilizing panel data from 420 automotive companies spanning 2015 to 2024, the analysis applies [...] Read more.
This study examines the influence of ethical leadership on corporate sustainability and financial performance, highlighting the moderating effect of firms’ commitment to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Utilizing panel data from 420 automotive companies spanning 2015 to 2024, the analysis applies the System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to control for endogeneity and unobserved heterogeneity. All data were gathered from the Refinitiv Eikon Platform (LSEG) and annual reports. Panel GMM regression is used to estimate the relationship to deal with the endogeneity problem. The results reveal that ethical leadership significantly improves corporate sustainability performance—measured by ESG scores from Refinitiv Eikon and Bloomberg—as well as financial indicators like Return on Assets (ROA) and Tobin’s Q. Additionally, firms that demonstrate breadth (the range of SDG-related themes addressed), concentration (the distribution of non-financial disclosures across SDGs), and depth (the overall volume of SDG-related information) in their SDG disclosures gain greater advantages from ethical leadership, resulting in enhanced ESG performance and higher market valuation. This study offers valuable insights for corporate leaders, policymakers, and investors on how integrating ethical leadership with SDG alignment can drive sustainable and financial growth. Full article
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20 pages, 546 KiB  
Article
Geopolitical Risk and Its Influence on Egyptian Non-Financial Firms’ Performance: The Moderating Role of FinTech
by Bashar Abu Khalaf, Munirah Sarhan AlQahtani, Maryam Saad Al-Naimi and Meya Mardini
FinTech 2025, 4(3), 30; https://doi.org/10.3390/fintech4030030 - 18 Jul 2025
Viewed by 357
Abstract
This study investigates the impact of geopolitical risk, firm characteristics, and macroeconomic variables on the performance of non-financial firms listed on the Egyptian Stock Exchange. The study analyzes a panel dataset consisting of 182 Egyptian firms over the period 2014–2023. Using the panel [...] Read more.
This study investigates the impact of geopolitical risk, firm characteristics, and macroeconomic variables on the performance of non-financial firms listed on the Egyptian Stock Exchange. The study analyzes a panel dataset consisting of 182 Egyptian firms over the period 2014–2023. Using the panel Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) regression technique, the study examines the effect of geopolitical risk on the return on assets. This study controls for firm characteristics such as liquidity, leverage, and growth opportunities and controls for macroeconomic variables such as inflation and GDP. This empirical evidence investigates the moderating role of FinTech on such relationship. The results reveal a significant and negative relationship between geopolitical risk and firms’ performance. Liquidity, growth opportunities, and inflation show positive and significant impacts. In contrast, leverage and GDP demonstrate significant negative relationships. Remarkably, FinTech moderates the relationship significantly and positively. Therefore, investors ought to proceed with prudence when positioning cash within elevated political volatility. The significant positive moderating effect of FinTech on this connection provides a vital strategic insight: enterprises with enhanced FinTech integration may demonstrate increased resilience to geopolitical shocks. Full article
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35 pages, 1123 KiB  
Article
AI-Based Bankruptcy Prediction for Agricultural Firms in Central and Eastern Europe
by Dominika Gajdosikova, Jakub Michulek and Irina Tulyakova
Int. J. Financial Stud. 2025, 13(3), 133; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs13030133 - 16 Jul 2025
Viewed by 438
Abstract
The agriculture sector is increasingly challenged to maintain productivity and sustainability amidst environmental, marketplace, and geopolitical pressures. While precision agriculture enhances physical production, the financial resilience of agricultural firms has been understudied. In this study, machine learning (ML) methods, including logistic regression (LR), [...] Read more.
The agriculture sector is increasingly challenged to maintain productivity and sustainability amidst environmental, marketplace, and geopolitical pressures. While precision agriculture enhances physical production, the financial resilience of agricultural firms has been understudied. In this study, machine learning (ML) methods, including logistic regression (LR), decision trees (DTs), and artificial neural networks (ANNs), are employed to predict the bankruptcy risk for Central and Eastern European (CEE) farming firms. All models consistently showed high performance, with AUC values exceeding 0.95. DTs had the highest overall accuracy (95.72%) and F1 score (0.9768), LR had the highest recall (0.9923), and ANNs had the highest discrimination power (AUC = 0.960). Visegrad, Balkan, Baltic, and Eastern Europe subregional models featured economic and structural heterogeneity, reflecting the need for local financial risk surveillance. The results support the development of AI-based early warning systems for agricultural finance, enabling smarter decision-making, regional adaptation, and enhanced sustainability in the sector. Full article
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