Search Results (253)

Seasonal fires in northern Thailand are a persistent environmental and public health concern, yet existing fire probability mapping approaches in Thailand rely heavily on subjective multi-criteria analysis (MCA) methods and temporally static data aggregation methods. To address these limitations, we present a flexible, replicable, and operationally viable seasonal fire probability mapping methodology using a Random Forest (RF) machine learning model in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. We trained the model on historical fire occurrence and fire predictor layers from 2016–2023 and applied it to 2024 conditions to generate a probabilistic fire prediction. Our novel approach improves upon existing operational methods and scientific literature in several ways. It uses a more representative sample design which is agnostic to the burn history of fire presences and absences, pairs fire and fire predictor data from each year to account for interannual variation in conditions, empirically refines the most influential fire predictors from a comprehensive set of predictors, and provides a reproducible and accessible framework using GEE. Predictor variables include both socioeconomic and environmental drivers of fire, such as topography, fuels, potential fire behavior, forest type, vegetation characteristics, climate, water availability, crop type, recent burn history, and human influence and accessibility. The model achieves an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.841 when applied to 2016–2023 data and 0.848 when applied to 2024 data, indicating strong discriminatory power despite the additional spatial and temporal variability introduced by our sample design. The highest fire probabilities emerge in forested and agricultural areas at mid elevations and near human settlements and roads, which aligns well with the known anthropogenic drivers of fire in Thailand. Distinct areas of model uncertainty are also apparent in cropland and forests which are only burned intermittently, highlighting the importance of accounting for localized burning cycles. Variable importance analysis using the Gini Impurity Index identifies both natural and anthropogenic predictors as key and nearly equally important predictors of fire, including certain forest and crop types, vegetation characteristics, topography, climate, human influence and accessibility, water availability, and recent burn history. Our findings demonstrate the heavy influence of data preprocessing and model design choices on model results. The model outputs are provided as interpretable probability maps and the methods can be adapted to future years or augmented with local datasets. Our methodology presents a scalable advancement in wildfire probability mapping with machine learning and open-source tools, particularly for data-constrained landscapes. It will support Thailand’s fire managers in proactive fire response and planning and also inform broader regional fire risk assessment efforts. Full article

Urban community gardens are valued for promoting sustainable food production, yet the accumulation of toxic heavy metals in city soils can present both ecological and public health risks. Therefore, this study was aimed at assessing the environmental and health risks of toxic heavy metals in community gardens soil contaminated by an industrial fire hazard in New Brunswick, Canada. Both top and subsoil soil samples were collected at Carleton community garden. The collected samples were examined for toxic heavy metals using inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Ecological risks were evaluated through the ecological risk factor and the potential ecological risk index, while human health risks were determined using a standard human health risk assessment approach. The mean concentration of Pb, Zn, Cu, and Sn exceeded permissible limits when compared to the Canadian soil quality guidelines and upper continental crust values. Findings from the ecological risk assessment showed that all metals were associated with low risk, except for nickel, which posed a high ecological risk across both soil layers. PERI results revealed a low overall ecological threat. The human health risk analysis indicated that children could face non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks from As exposure, while adults were not at risk from any of the studied metals. These findings identify arsenic as the primary contaminant of concern, with children representing the most vulnerable population, emphasizing the necessity for targeted mitigation strategies and protective measures to reduce their exposure. The results of this study can inform interventions aimed at safeguarding both environmental and public health, while also raising awareness about the presence and risks of toxic heavy metals, ultimately contributing to the protection of human health and the broader ecosystem. Full article

Mine fire is caused by external heat source or coal seam spontaneous combustion, and there are serious hidden dangers in mining operation. The existing detection methods have high cost, limited coverage and delayed response. An edge intelligent fire detection system based on multi-source information fusion is proposed. We enhance the YOLOv5s backbone network by (1) optimized small-target detection and (2) adaptive attention mechanism to improve recognition accuracy. In order to overcome the limitation of video only, a dynamic weighting algorithm combining video and multi-sensor data is proposed, which adjusts the strategy according to the real-time fire risk index. Deploying quantitative models on edge devices can improve underground intelligence and response speed. The experimental results show that the improved YOLOv5s is 7.2% higher than the baseline, the detection accuracy of the edge system in the simulated environment is 8.28% higher, and the detection speed is 26% higher than that of cloud computing. Full article

This study focused on the Wugong coal fire area in the Zhunnan coalfield of Xinjiang, analyzing 41 soil samples extending from the fire center outward. The key parameters included pH, soil organic carbon (SOC), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), available potassium (AK), various ions (Ca²⁺, Na⁺, Mg²⁺, SO₄²⁻, CO₃²⁻, HCO₃⁻, and Cl⁻), and heavy metal concentrations (As, Cr, Hg, Ni, Cd, Cu, Zn, and Pb). The primary objectives were to evaluate heavy metal pollution levels and potential ecological risks using the single factor pollution index (P_i), the Geo-accumulation index (I_Geo), Nemero’s pollution index (P_n), the pollution load index (PLI), and the ecological risk factor (E_rⁱ) and risk index (RI). Spatial distribution analysis indicated higher heavy metal concentrations in the southwestern and central regions. The heavy metals Cr, Ni, Cd, Cu, and Zn reached mild pollution levels, while Hg exhibited high pollution, with P_i, I_Geo, and P_n values of 3.27, 0.61, and 9.68, respectively. Hg (E_rⁱ = 111.07) and Cd (E_rⁱ = 45.91) emerged as the primary ecological risk factors. The overall ecological risk index (RI) of 184.98 indicated a moderate ecological risk. The results demonstrate that soils surrounding the coal fire zone are significantly impacted by coal fire, characterized by severe heavy metal contamination and nutrient deficiency. Full article

The Republic of Korea, with 64% forest coverage, is increasingly vulnerable to large-scale wildfires. This study employed electrical resistance tomography (ERT) to diagnose internal damage in Pinus densiflora trees following a surface fire in spring 2023. Of the 30 monitored trees, 5 died in 2023 and 6 more had died by 2024. Dead trees showed a 41% higher Bark Scorch Index (BSI) and a 10%–15% lower DBH and circumference than survivors. From July, ERT detected significant increases in high- (ERT_R) and medium-resistance (ERT_Y) areas, while low-resistance (ERT_B) regions declined. By September, ERT_R and ERT_Y were 2.2 and 1.9 times higher in dead trees. Maximum resistivity (Rs_max) rose 6.1-fold to 3724 Ωm. One year post-fire, healthy areas in dead trees dropped below 18%. These findings indicate that internal defects develop gradually and accelerate in summer and winter, correlating with thermal and freeze–thaw stress. Early diagnosis within two months post-fire was unreliable, while post-summer assessments better distinguished trees at mortality risk. This study demonstrates ERT’s utility as a non-destructive tool for tracking post-fire damage and guiding forest restoration under increasing wildfire threats. Full article

Conventional wildfire assessment products emphasize regional-scale ignition likelihood and potential spread derived from fuels and weather. While useful for broad planning, they do not directly support boundary-aware, scenario-specific decision-making for localized threats to communities in the Wildland–Urban Interface (WUI). This limitation constrains the ability of fire managers to effectively prioritize mitigation efforts and response strategies for ignition events that may lead to severe local impacts. This paper introduces WUI-BTI—a scenario-based, simulation-driven boundary-threat index for the Wildland–Urban Interface that quantifies consequences conditional on an ignition under standardized meteorology, rather than estimating risk. WUI-BTI evaluates ignition locations—referred to as Fire Amplification Sites (FAS)—based on their potential to compromise the defined boundary of a community. For each ignition location, a high-resolution fire spread simulation is conducted. The resulting fire perimeter dynamics are analyzed to extract three key metrics: (1) the minimum distance of fire approach to the community boundary ($D_{min}$) for non-breaching fires; and for breaching fires, (2) the time required for the fire to reach the boundary ($T_p$), and (3) the total length of the community boundary affected by the fire ($L_c$). These raw outputs are mapped through monotone, sigmoid-based transformations to yield a single, interpretable score: breaching fires are scored by the product of an inverse-time urgency term and an extent term, whereas non-breaching fires are scored by proximity alone. The result is a continuous boundary-threat surface that ranks ignition sites by their potential to rapidly and substantially compromise a community boundary. By converting complex simulation outputs into scenario-specific, boundary-aware intelligence, WUI-BTI provides a transparent, quantitative basis for prioritizing fuel treatments, pre-positioning suppression resources, and guiding protective strategies in the WUI for fire managers, land use planners, and emergency response agencies. The framework complements regional hazard layers (e.g., severity classifications) by resolving fine-scale, consequence-focused priorities for specific communities. Full article

Grassland fire risk perception constitutes a fundamental element of fire risk assessment and underpins the evaluation of response capacities in grassland regions. This study examines Qinghai Province, the fourth-largest pastoral region in China, as a case study to develop an evaluation index system for assessing residents’ perceptions of grassland fire risk. Using micro-level survey data, the study quantifies these perceptions and applies a quantile regression model to investigate influencing factors. The results indicate that: (1) the average grassland fire risk perception index among residents in Qinghai Province’s grassland areas is 0.509, with response behaviors contributing the most and response attitudes contributing the least; (2) Residents in agricultural areas perceive higher risks than those in semi-agricultural/semi-pastoral or purely pastoral areas, and individuals in regions with moderate dependency ratios and moderate fire-susceptibility conditions demonstrate the highest performance, whereas those in pastoral and high-susceptibility zones exhibit signs of “risk desensitization”; (3) risk communication and information dissemination are the primary drivers of enhanced perception, followed by climate variables, whereas individual characteristics of residents attributes exert no significant effect. It is recommended to monitor the impacts of climate change on fire risk patterns, update risk information dynamically, address deficits in residents’ cognition and capabilities, strengthen behavioral guidance and capacity-building initiatives, and foster a transition from passive acceptance to active engagement, thereby enhancing both cognitive and behavioral responses to grassland fires. Full article

This study aimed to investigate the physical factors influencing the occurrence of forest fires and to create a fire risk map of Phrae Province. Remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) technology were applied for the analysis, focusing on seven factors: the digital elevation model (DEM); slope; Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI); aspect; and distances from people, water, and roads. All of these geographical factors can affect forest fires. This resulted in a MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) model with an AUC (area under the curve) of 0.849, indicating its great prediction ability. The findings revealed that the variables influencing forest fire incidence were the DEM, NDVI, slope, distance from roads, distance from water, distance from communities, and aspect, in that order. Subsequently, a fire risk map for wildfires was developed by reclassifying the data into five levels—very low risk, low risk, medium risk, high risk, and very high risk—accounting for 341,395.54, 88,132.64, 76,162.41, 81,157.55, and 57,384.10 hectares or 52.99, 13.68, 11.82, 12.60, and 8.91% of the total area, respectively. The areas classified as very high risk, high risk, medium risk, and low risk included the Song, Long, and Rong Kwang Districts. The area with the lowest risk was Nong Muang Khai District. Full article

A major fire occurred in the wildland–urban interface in southern Portugal, on 13 July 2022, becoming uncontrolled due to weather conditions. This study investigates how atmospheric dynamics increased fire danger in Mainland Portugal during early July 2022. The synoptic circulation from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis and mesoscale conditions from Meso-NH model simulation at 1.5 km resolution revealed atmospheric conditions before and during the fire. Fire risk was assessed using the Fire Weather Index (FWI) from Meso-NH outputs. A blocking pattern was configured by an upper-level low-pressure system in early July, remaining semi-stationary west of Mainland Portugal until 18 July. The counter-clockwise circulation of the cut-off low resulted in dry, warm air advection from North Africa, enhancing fire danger over the Iberian Peninsula. In southern Portugal, a jet-like wind with strong east/southeasterly flow from Gibraltar Strait favored rapid fire spread. This circulation below 1 km altitude from the Mediterranean Sea enhanced fire danger through strong winds, independent of the large-scale blocking pattern. This study presents an atmospheric scenario for evaluating fire danger in Southern Portugal, important for pre-firefighting management that complemented previous studies for the region. Also, high-resolution FWI calculations using Meso-NH emphasized the importance of improved temporal and spatial resolution for fire danger assessment. Full article

This study employed Deep Abstract Networks (DANets), independently and in combination with the Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA), to generate high-resolution susceptibility maps for drought and wildfire hazards in the Oroqen Autonomous Banner in Inner Mongolia. Presence samples included 309 wildfire points from MODIS active fire data and 200 drought points derived from a custom Standardized Drought Condition Index. DANets-WOA models showed clear performance improvements over their solitary counterparts. For drought susceptibility, RMSE was reduced from 0.28 to 0.21, MAE from 0.17 to 0.11, and AUC improved from 85.7% to 88.9%. Wildfire susceptibility mapping also improved, with RMSE decreasing from 0.39 to 0.36, MAE from 0.32 to 0.28, and AUC increasing from 78.9% to 85.1%. Loss function plots indicated improved convergence and reduced overfitting following optimization. A pairwise z-statistic analysis revealed significant differences (p < 0.05) in susceptibility classifications between the two modeling approaches. Notably, the overlap of drought and wildfire susceptibilities within the forest–steppe transitional zone reflects a climatically and ecologically tense corridor, where moisture stress, vegetation gradients, and human land-use converge to amplify multi-hazard risk beyond the sum of individual threats. The integration of DANets with the WOA demonstrates a robust and scalable framework for dual hazard modeling. Full article

Wildfires in Portugal have become increasingly frequent and severe, driven by a combination of fuel accumulation, extreme meteorological conditions, and topographic complexity. This study assesses the applicability of the Hot–Dry–Windy (HDW) index in characterizing fire-weather conditions during five major wildfires: Chamusca (2003), Pedrógão Grande and Lousã (2017), Monchique (2018), and Covilhã (2022). HDW values were computed at sub-daily resolution and compared against a 1991–2020 climatology. This study also evaluates the HDW index as a high-resolution fire danger indicator in Portugal and compares it with the traditional FWI using percentile-based climatology. The findings indicate that during 12 and 15 UTC, HDW in the wildfires in Chamusca (2003) and Lousã (2017) exceeded 180–370 units, suggesting extreme air conditions driven by hot, dry, and windy weather patterns. These values denoted extremely flammable conditions since they were significantly higher than the 95th percentile. A distinct peak at 15 UTC for Pedrógão Grande (2017) topped 140 units (>P95), which is consistent with the ignition timing and a rapid beginning spread. A continuous HDW anomaly that peaked above 200 units between 2 August and 5 August preceded the Monchique (2018) event, suggesting extended heat stress and increased wind contribution. While not as severe as in previous instances, HDW at Covilhã (2022) was above the 75th percentile in the early afternoon (12–18 UTC). Results show that in all cases, HDW values exceeded the 90th and 95th percentiles during the hours of ignition and early fire spread, with the most critical anomalies occurring between 12 UTC and 18 UTC. Spatial analyses revealed regional-scale patterns of HDW exceedance, aligning with observed ignition zones. Comparisons with the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) revealed that while the FWI captured seasonal fuel aridity, the HDW more effectively resolved short-term meteorological extremes, particularly wind and atmospheric dryness. The HDW index was found to identify high-risk conditions even when FWI values were moderate, highlighting its added diagnostic value. These results support the inclusion of HDW in operational fire danger rating systems for Portugal and other Mediterranean countries, where compound fire-weather extremes are becoming more frequent due to climate change. Full article

Wildfire behavior and post-fire effects are strongly modulated by terrain, yet the relative influence of individual topographic factors on burn severity remains incompletely quantified at landscape scales. The Composite Burn Index (CBI) provides a field-calibrated measure of severity, but large-area analyses have been hampered by limited plot density and cumbersome data extraction workflows. In this study, we paired 6150 CBI plots from 234 U.S. wildfire events (1994–2017) with 30 m SRTM DEM, extracting mean elevation, slope, and compass aspect within a 90 m buffer around each plot to minimize geolocation noise. Topographic variables were grouped into ecologically meaningful classes—six elevation belts (≤500 m to >2500 m), six slope bins (≤5° to >25°), and eight aspect octants—and their relationships with CBI were evaluated using Tukey HSD post hoc comparisons. Our findings show that all three factors exerted highly significant influences on severity (p < 0.001): mean CBI peaked in the 1500–2000 m belt (0.42 higher than lowlands), rose almost monotonically with steepness to slopes > 20° (0.37 higher than <5°), and was greatest on east- and northwest-facing slopes (0.19 higher than south-facing aspects). Further analysis revealed that burn severity emerges from strongly context-dependent synergies among elevation, slope, and aspect, rather than from simple additive effects. By demonstrating a rapid, reproducible workflow for terrain-aware severity assessment entirely within GEE, the study provides both methodological guidance and actionable insights for fuel-management planning, risk mapping, and post-fire restoration prioritization. Full article

Frequent grassland fires have severely affected regional ecosystems as well as the production and living conditions of local residents. Grassland fire prevention capabilities constitute an integral part of the disaster prevention and mitigation system and play an important role in improving grassroots governance. To gain a deeper understanding of the practical foundation and influencing mechanisms of grassland fire prevention capabilities, establish an evaluation index system for prevention capabilities covering the four dimensions of disaster prevention, disaster resistance, disaster relief, and recovery. Combining micro-level survey data, a quantile regression model is used to analyze the influencing factors. The research findings indicate that (1) disaster resistance (0.49) plays a prominent role in grassland fire prevention capabilities, with economic foundations and individual disaster relief capabilities being particularly critical for overall improvement. Although residents have strong fire prevention awareness, their organizational collaboration capabilities are relatively weak, and there are significant differences in prevention capabilities across regions, necessitating tailored, precise enhancements. (2) There are significant differences in prevention capabilities among residents of different agricultural and pastoral production types, with semi-agricultural and semi-pastoral areas having the strongest comprehensive capabilities and pastoral areas relatively weaker. (3) A significant analysis of factors influencing grassland fire prevention capabilities: effective and diverse risk communication is a prerequisite for enhancing residents’ prevention capabilities; the level of panic regarding grassland fires and road infrastructure are important influencing factors, but residents’ understanding of climate change and grassroots organizations’ capacity for mechanism construction have insignificant impacts. Therefore, in future grassland fire disaster prevention and mitigation efforts, it is essential to strengthen risk communication, improve infrastructure, monitor environmental changes and the spatiotemporal patterns of grassland fires, enhance residents’ understanding of climate change, reinforce the emergency response capabilities of grassroots organizations, and stimulate public participation awareness to collectively build a multi-tiered grassland fire prevention system. Full article

Fire occurs naturally and anthropogenically in the Cerrado biome, influenced by hydrology, climate, topography, and land use. Mapping burned areas is essential for understanding the causes of fire and improving prevention and regulation. However, fire scars are often confused with bare soil in agricultural regions. This study presents a method for mapping burned areas using spectral indices and artificial neural networks (ANN). We evaluated the accuracy of these techniques and identified the best input variables for scar detection. Using Sentinel-2 images from 2018 to 2021 during dry periods, we applied NDVI, SAVI, NBR, and CSI indices. The study included two stages: first, finding optimal classification configurations for fire scars, and second, mapping land use and cover with fire scars and crops. Results showed that using all Sentinel-2 bands and the four indices post-fire achieved over 93.7% accuracy and a kappa index of 0.92. Fire scars were mainly located in areas with temporary crops like soybean, sugarcane, rice, and cotton. This low-cost method allows for effective monitoring of fire scars, underscoring the need to regulate agricultural practices in the Cerrado, where burning poses environmental and health risks. Full article

The Pinus yunnanensis forest of southwestern China represents a unique and ecologically critical vegetation type, historically shaped by fire disturbances. To mitigate catastrophic wildfire risks, prescribed burning has been widely implemented as a management tool in these ecosystems. However, its effects on plant community structure and biodiversity remain insufficiently quantified. To investigate the specific changes in plant community characteristics caused by prescribed burning, this study was conducted in the Pinus yunnanensis forest in Zhaobi Hill, Xinping county. Our results revealed that prescribed burning induced differential effects on understory communities while exerting negligible effects on canopy tree composition. In the shrub layer, the number of shrub species decreased from 26 to 20, accompanied by a complete extirpation of arboreal saplings. Dominance hierarchies shifted markedly, transitioning from Lithocarpus mairei and Pinus yunnanensis regeneration cohorts in unburned plots to fire-adapted species Duhaldea cappa and Craibiodendron stellatum. Concomitantly, the average height of shrubs had a significant reduction in burning plots. Contrastingly, the number of herb species increased from 30 to 37 in burning plots, with non-significant alterations in abundance, height, and importance values. Prescribed burning significantly decreases the α species diversity of shrubs, but only has minimal effects on the α species diversity indices of herbs. Overall, prescribed burning appears to be the primary factor affecting the species diversity index of shrubs, while altitude, forest structure, and soil nutrient content exert greater influences on the species diversity index of the herbaceous layer. Prescribed burning was the dominant factor shaping the community structure and species diversity of the shrub layer, and the missing saplings of trees in the shrub layer might influence future forest succession in the long term. Full article