Search Results (1,630)

This study uses multidimensional indicators of macroeconomics, supply and demand, cost, and market microstructure to construct an intelligent framework integrated with optimized Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) denoising for price forecasting and black early warning for egg futures in China from 2014 to 2023. Black early warning serves as a non-parametric early warning method that identifies abnormal price increases and falls based on historical fluctuation thresholds. As the first livestock future contract listed in China, accurate egg price forecasting is crucial for risk prevention and market control and regulation. First, LASSO regression was used to screen the core driving factors of egg futures prices. Nine key indicators were identified and input into the hybrid Temporal Convolutional Network–Gated Recurrent Unit (TCN-GRU) prediction model. To address the high-frequency noise in the original price series, two-dimensional optimization was performed on traditional EWMA denoising to achieve more adaptive noise filtering. By applying the black early warning method, the obtained future egg price fluctuations were more consistent with the actual situation. In addition, empirical analysis of multi-horizon forecasting and early warning for t + 1, t + 5, and t + 10 was carried out to further verify the model’s prediction accuracy. The results show that compared with the single TCN model, the single GRU model, and the TCN-GRU model without denoising, the TCN-GRU model integrated with optimized EWMA denoising achieves better prediction performance on the test set. In terms of the early warning matching rate, it reaches 83.33% for the t + 1 horizon, and the prediction accuracy for the t + 5 and t + 10 horizons decreases regularly but remains stable above 60%. In contrast, the highest early warning matching rate of the model without denoising is only 22.22% across all horizons, which has no practical early warning value. The early warning signals generated by the optimized EWMA denoising-based TCN-GRU model can effectively identify abnormal sharp rises and falls in egg futures prices, providing effective support for hedging and risk management for market participants. The study’s limitations are discussed, as well as future research directions. The findings provide a basis for decision making for agricultural producers and future investors and support the development of China’s agricultural product market. Full article

This study proposes an advanced short-term Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) prediction model for Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) systems, integrating a convolutional neural network (CNN) with a fitted clear-sky DNI model. Leveraging all-sky images and historical DNI data, the model precisely identifies cloud motion patterns through dense optical flow analysis and forecasts DNI using a targeted region-of-interest (ROI) approach. When maximum cloud pixel velocity falls below 5 pixels per minute, the clear-sky DNI model or persistence model directly applies; for higher-velocity conditions, the CNN predicts the clear-sky index to dynamically adjust the forecast. Experimental validation across diverse weather conditions demonstrates superior accuracy, achieving significantly lower normalized Mean Absolute Errors (nMAEs) and normalized Root Mean Squared Errors (nRMSEs) for various forecast horizons under cloudy skies compared to recent state-of-the-art deep learning approaches. This work delivers a robust solution for preventing thermal shock in the receiver and improving the CSP operational stability. Full article

Enhancement of postural stability in standing is essential for fall prevention in the context of demographic aging. Against such a background, this study proposes a personalized training system based on individual limits of stability (LOS) for a human standing state. The system evaluates LOS in eight directions using center-of-mass (COM) and center-of-pressure (COP) measurement devices and provides game-based feedback, then promotes balance within the relevant LOS parameters. Loading is individualized by applying greater force to virtual objects as the COP approaches the LOS determined for each subject. Experiments with 32 younger and 19 mature subjects produced evaluations for postural stability index (IPS), LOS area, and COP sway. The results revealed two distinct response patterns: LOS expansion and sway reduction, both observed across younger and mature cohorts. These findings suggest that individualized LOS-based training can be applied to improve standing stability with two distinct strategies. These preliminary findings suggest that individualized LOS-based training is associated with changes in standing stability through two distinct response patterns. Full article

Accurate performance prediction of variable-speed centrifugal chillers is important for building energy optimization and the development of digital twins in HVAC systems. In practice, obtaining extensive operational data is costly, creating a prevalent “small-sample” dilemma under which conventional data-driven models are prone to overfitting with poor extrapolation capability. While recent Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) incorporate system-level thermodynamic constraints (e.g., COP definitions), they typically treat the centrifugal compressor as a thermodynamic black box, neglecting its inherent fluid dynamic characteristics; consequently, extrapolated predictions may be physically inconsistent or fall into unsafe operating regions such as compressor surge. To address this gap, this paper proposes an Aero-thermodynamic Physics-Informed Neural Network (Aero-PINN) that introduces three mechanisms into the PINN loss function: (1) dimensionless aerodynamic similarity mapping governed by affinity laws, (2) a surge boundary constraint that prevents non-physical extrapolations, and (3) an aerodynamic–electrical energy coupling validation. Experimental validation on 420 real-world variable-speed test records shows that the Aero-PINN achieves a COP RMSE of 0.04 and a COP MAPE of 0.3%, outperforming standard MLP and polynomial baselines. Moreover, 100% of the extrapolated operating points satisfy all fluid dynamic safety and energy efficiency constraints. This framework provides a reliable, physics-constrained small-sample learning approach, facilitating factory calibration and reduced-test digital modeling for chiller plants. Full article

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic significantly altered the daily routines of young adults. This study investigated alcohol consumption patterns and associated factors among young adults in Romania during this period. Method: A cross-sectional study was conducted using an online survey. Participants were asked to retrospectively report their alcohol consumption patterns before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, including the period of university campus closures. A cohort of 249 young adults (68.6% female) participated in an online survey focused on their alcohol consumption patterns, utilizing the standardized AUDIT-C questionnaire and some modified questions to better establish the habit of drinking. Results: In total, 41.7% of the included subjects were in medical school, 10% in IT, and 44% in various areas of work. Most respondents were female, between 20 and 25 years old (65%) and living in urban areas, with wine being the most favorable drink. Regarding AUDIT scores, approximately 90% fall into low-risk drinking or even abstinence, 10% belong to the high-risk group of alcohol consumption, and 3 people have a high score, which suggests drinking abuse and the likelihood of developing alcohol dependence. A comparison of pre- to post-closure drinking among medical students showed statistically significant changes in the typical number of drinks per week (from 11.5 to 9.9) and maximum drinks per day (from 4.9 to 3.3) and a slight increase in typical drinking days per week (from 3 to 3.2), p < 0.05, outlining a decrease in alcohol consumption. Conclusions: The study highlights specific drinking patterns during the pandemic. While some individuals decreased consumption, a significant portion remained at risk for alcohol-related complications, emphasizing the need for targeted screening and prevention programs. Full article

The purpose of this research is to examine the impact of industrial noise levels ranging from 74 to 76 dB—which fall below the legal limit of 80 dB—on complex physiological and psychological stress responses of workers. The study employs a multimodal approach, combining objective acoustic measurements according to the EN ISO 9612:2009 standard with the monitoring of physiological parameters, specifically galvanic skin response (GSR), blood pressure, and heart rate, complemented by subjective assessments through questionnaires. Key findings revealed that the C-weighted noise level L_CEX (r = 0.67) demonstrates a stronger correlation with stress response and heart rate (r = 0.66) than the standard A-weighted filter (L_AEX). Although noise explains only approximately 4% of heart rate variability (R² ≈ 0.04), providing indirect support for the multifactorial nature of stress, subjectively, 71% of workers expressed a need for noise reduction due to accompanying symptoms such as headaches and tinnitus. The highest level of cardiovascular load was consistently recorded at workstation SZ7. The results suggest that industrial noise may represent a contributing factor to psychosocial risk even at levels below regulatory limits. The results provide indirect support for the hypothesis that low-frequency noise (LFN) components play a role in psychosocial stress, suggesting the need for further investigation using detailed spectral analysis in the prevention of industrial psychosocial diseases. Full article

Background/Objectives: Suicide attempts represent a major global health problem. Traumatic suicide methods, such as falls from great heights, stab wounds, and gunshot wounds, frequently result in severe or fatal injuries. The COVID-19 pandemic, as well as broader societal stressors including economic uncertainty and geopolitical conflicts, has substantially increased psychological stress in the population and has been discussed as a potential influencing factor for suicidal behavior. The aim of this study was to analyze severe traumatic suicide attempts and to evaluate the potential influence of the COVID-19 pandemic in a multicenter analysis of the TraumaRegister (TR) DGU^®. Methods: This retrospective multicenter analysis is based on the TraumaRegister DGU^®, a standardized database for seriously injured patients. Patients from Germany, Austria, and Switzerland from 2010 to 2023 with an Injury Severity Score (ISS) ≥ 9, an age ≥ 10 years, and a documented suicide attempt, who arrived at the hospital alive, were included. Results: Among severely injured trauma patients recorded in the registry, 12,247 (4.4%) cases were classified as suspected traumatic suicide attempts. Severe traumatic suicide attempts showed a clear age-dependent distribution, with a marked increase from adolescence and a plateau between 20 and 55 years of age. Both the mean age of the general population and the age of patients with suicide attempts increased over the study period. This trend was reflected in the rise in the ≥70-year age group from 13.6% in 2010 to 19.6% in 2023. The most common method was jumping from a height greater than 3 m (65.3%), followed by stab wounds (11.9%) and gunshot wounds (8.0%). While a significant decline in severe traumatic suicide attempts was observed between 2010 and 2019, a significant increase to 4.5% occurred in 2020, remaining at a comparable level in the following years. Sex-specific differences were observed, with penetrating injuries occurring more frequently in men, whereas jumps from heights > 3 m were more common among women. The highest hospital mortality was observed in gunshot injuries (67.9%). Conclusions: This study demonstrates an increase in severe traumatic suicide attempts in 2020 that persisted at a similar level until 2023. Sex-specific differences in suicide methods highlight the need for targeted prevention strategies. In addition, demographic aging is reflected in the increasing proportion of suicide attempts among older individuals, emphasizing the need for age-specific prevention measures. The relatively high survival rate after certain methods, particularly after falls from height (77%), underlines the importance of structured postoperative psychiatric care pathways. These findings specifically reflect traumatic suicide attempts resulting in severe injury and requiring trauma center treatment. Full article

Wearable fall detection systems face a fundamental challenge: while gyroscope data provide valuable orientation cues, naively combining raw gyroscope and accelerometer signals can degrade performance due to noise contamination. To overcome this challenge, we present a dual-stream transformer architecture that incorporates (i) Kalman-based sensor fusion to convert noisy gyroscope angular velocities into stable orientation estimates (roll, pitch, yaw), maintaining an internal state of body pose, and (ii) processing accelerometer and orientation streams in separate encoder pathways before fusion to prevent cross-modal interference. Our architecture further integrates Squeeze-and-Excitation channel attention and Temporal Attention Pooling to focus on fall-critical temporal patterns. Evaluated on the SmartFallMM dataset using 21-fold leave-one-subject-out cross-validation, the dual-stream Kalman transformer achieves 91.10% F1, outperforming single-stream Kalman transformers (89.80% F1) by 1.30% and single-stream baseline transformers (88.96% F1) by 2.14%. We further evaluate the model in real time using a watch-based SmartFall App on five participants, maintaining an average F1 score of 83% and an accuracy of 90%. These results indicate robust performance in both offline and real-world deployment settings, establishing a new state-of-the-art for inertial-measurement-unit-based fall detection on commodity smartwatch devices. Full article

Background: Acute hepatitis E (AHE) poses escalating risks to older adults (≥65 years), compounded by immunosenescence and comorbidities. Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data, this study analyzes global AHE burden, trends, and projections in aging populations. Methods: Age-standardized rates (ASIR, ASMR, ASDR) for AHE in adults ≥ 65 years were extracted from GBD 2021 across 204 countries (1990–2021). Frontier analysis assessed gaps between observed burdens and sociodemographic index (SDI)-based theoretical minima. Age-period-cohort (APC) modeling evaluated age/period/cohort effects. Bayesian (BAPC), NORDPRED, and ARIMA models projected trends to 2050. Results: Global ASIR increased by 1.5% annually (1990–2021), with ASMR and DALYs declining significantly. Middle SDI regions showed the steepest ASIR rise (net drift: 0.064%/year), while high SDI areas had volatile trends. Age effects peaked in ≥95-year-olds. Frontier analysis revealed persistent ASIR-SDI gaps, particularly in low-middle SDI regions. Projections indicate a ASIR rise by 2050 (113.04/100,000), contrasting with declining ASMR (0.056/100,000) and ASDR (1.31/100,000) and the NORDPRED, ARIMA, and EAPC models exhibit analogous global predictive trends. Conclusions: Diverging trends of rising incidence and falling mortality highlight unmet prevention needs. High-burden regions require SDI-stratified strategies, prioritizing vaccination programs (e.g., HEV 239), zoonotic transmission control, and enhanced surveillance. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) envision hepatitis elimination by 2030 (Target 3.3). However, our analysis projects ongoing AHE burden in aging populations through 2050, indicating the need for post-2030 policy adaptations. Full article

Background: Pancreatic trauma (PT) in children is rare and associated with significant morbidity. The optimal form of management—operative versus non-operative—remains controversial, particularly in the presence of acute post-traumatic peripancreatic fluid collection, which may later evolve into pancreatic pseudocysts. Isolated pancreatic injuries without associated organ damage are uncommon and pose diagnostic and therapeutic challenges. Case Presentation: We report a 5-year-old boy who sustained an isolated grade IB blunt pancreatic head contusion following blunt abdominal trauma after falling onto a wooden fence. He presented with epigastric pain, repeated emesis, and an abdominal wall bruise. Initial ultrasound (US) findings were subtle; however, serial imaging and contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) revealed focal contusion of the pancreatic head/uncinate process with a small peripancreatic fluid collection. Pancreatic enzymes were markedly elevated, with peak serum lipase reaching approximately 6579 U/L. The child remained hemodynamically stable and was managed conservatively with bowel rest, intravenous fluids, octreotide, proton-pump inhibition, pancreatic enzyme replacement therapy (PERT), and antibiotics. Serial US demonstrated the dynamic evolution of an acute peripancreatic fluid collection (APFC) (~2 cm), which remained stable without complications. Clinical and biochemical parameters gradually improved, and no invasive intervention was required. The patient was discharged on hospital day 16 with planned outpatient imaging follow-up. Conclusions: This case demonstrates that isolated pediatric pancreatic contusions complicated by small, evolving peripancreatic fluid collections can be safely managed non-operatively in hemodynamically stable patients. Serial ultrasound plays a key role in monitoring lesion evolution and guiding management decisions. In accordance with current pediatric trauma guidelines, careful observation with structured follow-up may prevent unnecessary invasive interventions while achieving excellent clinical outcomes. Full article

Preeclampsia is a double-hit vascular disorder centred on the VEGF-HO-1-CSE axis. First, excess placental soluble Flt-1 (sFlt-1) neutralises vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and placental growth factor (PlGF), producing an angiogenic deficit that drives endothelial dysfunction, hypertension, proteinuria and end organ injury. Second, the failure of endogenous vascular brakes, heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1/CO) and cystathionine-γ-lyase (CSE)/hydrogen sulfide (H₂S) removes physiological restraint on anti-angiogenic factor release (sFlt-1; soluble endoglin) and amplifies oxidative–inflammatory stress, lowering the threshold at which VEGF loss precipitates severe disease. We synthesise human, animal and translational data that (i) establish placental sFlt-1 source and release, (ii) demonstrate human mechanistic causality via sFlt-1 removal, (iii) show prospective clinical validation that sFlt-1 rises and free PlGF falls before disease onset, and (iv) identify HO-1 and CSE/H₂S as protective pathways that restrain anti-angiogenic drive. Finally, we summarise preclinical evidence that the orally administered H₂S-donor prodrug MZe786 restores the HO-1/CSE axis, lowers sFlt-1 and soluble endoglin (sEng), and improves maternal haemodynamics and foetal outcomes across complementary pregnancy models, and we outline the role of sFlt-1/PlGF and M-PREG-based triage in clinical decision making. While valuable for short-term triage, current sFlt-1/PlGF-based approaches cannot sub-stratify among positive cases. Framing severe preeclampsia as a double-hit vascular disorder provides a biologically grounded framework that can inform risk stratification strategies like M-PREG^®, a clinical decision support system informed by the double hit framework, and prevention strategies, pairing early risk stratification with mechanism-informed interventions. Full article

Urban integration can lower average pollution, yet environmental benefits may be unevenly shared across cities within the same urban agglomeration. Such within-agglomeration disparities can weaken joint prevention and control, sustain unequal health risks, and hinder inclusive urban sustainability even when overall concentrations fall. Using a panel of Chinese metropolitan areas from 2005 to 2023, we examine whether metropolitan integration is associated with a more even distribution of pollution burdens among constituent cities. We measure within-agglomeration inequality using entropy-based indices for total emissions and emissions intensity, and capture integration intensity using cumulative policy attention and the years since integration began. We find that deeper integration is associated with lower pollution inequality, with larger reductions for inequality in total emissions than for inequality in emissions intensity. The decline emerges after integration begins and persists over time, and it remains robust to alternative measures and to an identification strategy that leverages predetermined historical connectivity. The equalizing association is most evident in metropolitan areas featuring high-primacy and high-ranking core cities, is reinforced by greater fiscal capacity and factor market integration, and is moderated by industrial lock-in. These results suggest that metropolitan integration, when supported by credible cross-city coordination and transition support in regions facing industrial lock-in, can promote cleaner and more equitable environmental outcomes within urban agglomerations. Full article

Fear of falling (FoF) is common in older adults and can reduce physical activity, mobility, and independence. As assistive technologies become more common, understanding how attitudes towards technology influence FoF is important. This study examined indoor FoF and its association with technology acceptance among 500 community-dwelling Austrian adults aged 65–85 via a cross-sectional web survey. Indoor FoF was assessed using the Falls Efficacy Scale–International (FES-I) indoor items. Technology acceptance was measured using the TechPH questionnaire, which captured TechEnthusiasm and TechAnxiety. Logistic regression models were used to analyse associations with FoF, dichotomised at the median. The mean age was 74 years, and 55% of participants were female. Overall, indoor FoF was low. Adjusted models indicated that older age (OR = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.04–1.12) and female sex (OR = 1.55; 95% CI: 1.01–2.38) were linked to higher FoF. Greater TechEnthusiasm was associated with lower FoF (OR = 0.65; 95% CI: 0.50–0.85), while higher TechAnxiety (i.e., less confidence with technology) was linked to higher FoF (OR = 1.79; 95% CI: 1.40–2.27). The TechEnthusiasm-FoF association was stronger among women. Promoting enthusiasm for technology may reduce FoF, but potential acceptance barriers must be addressed, especially among higher-risk individuals. Full article

Background: The use of physical restraints in hospital settings remains a controversial practice due to its ethical, legal, and safety implications. Although restraints are intended to prevent falls or manage agitation, their inappropriate use may compromise patient dignity, autonomy, and quality of care. Current healthcare policies emphasize restraint reduction, appropriate documentation, and professional training as key elements of humanized and safe care. Methods: A descriptive cross-sectional study based on an anonymous self-administered survey was conducted in a tertiary university hospital as the diagnostic phase of a quality improvement project aimed at evaluating healthcare professionals’ knowledge, perceptions, and documentation practices related to physical restraint use. A structured ad hoc questionnaire was distributed to registered nurses and nursing assistants working in adult inpatient units using a non-probabilistic convenience sampling strategy. The survey explored training, clinical decision-making, communication with patients and families, awareness of institutional protocols, and use of the electronic health record (EHR). Descriptive analyses and Pearson’s chi-square tests were performed using IBM SPSS Statistics. Results: A total of 241 professionals participated. More than half of respondents (54.8%) reported no formal training in physical restraint use, and only 27.4% considered their training sufficient. Although 86.3% stated they were familiar with restraint indications, only 53.5% were aware of the existence of a structured EHR restraint registry, and just 31.0% consistently completed it. Documentation of restraint removal was particularly low (32.9%). Furthermore, significant discrepancies were observed between regulatory definitions of restraints and professionals’ perceptions regarding practices requiring formal documentation. Statistically significant associations were identified between professional category, perceived training adequacy, and knowledge of physical restraint indications. Conclusions: This diagnostic phase identified substantial gaps between regulatory requirements, professional knowledge, and real-world documentation practices related to physical restraint use. The findings highlight the need for competency-based training strategies, standardized documentation processes, and strengthened institutional leadership to promote patient safety, regulatory compliance, and the humanization of hospital care. Full article

Vitamin D is widely recognized for its pivotal role in the prevention and treatment of various cancers. The active compounds derived from plants have garnered significant attention due to their multi-faceted anticancer properties. Given the complexity and heterogeneity of cancer, monotherapies often fall short in effectiveness. As a result, combinatorial pharmacological strategies, which utilize multiple drug agents, are increasingly being employed globally. Notably, emerging evidence highlights the potent synergistic anticancer effects of vitamin D in combination with certain phytochemicals against a variety of cancers. This review explores the cooperative mechanisms through which vitamin D and phytochemicals enhance cancer prevention and therapy. In addition to examining their synergistic effects, this review also discusses recent advancements in nanotechnology-based delivery systems for vitamin D, which hold promise for optimizing its therapeutic potential. Collectively, these findings underscore the potential of combining vitamin D with phytochemicals and innovative delivery methods as a promising strategy in the fight against cancer, paving the way for more effective, multi-targeted therapeutic approaches. Full article