Search Results (60)

In a warming climate, rising temperature are expected to influence atmospheric humidity. This study examined the spatio-temporal dynamics of temperature (TEMP) and relative humidity (RH) across Equatorial Africa from 1980 to 2020. The analysis used RH data from European Centre of Medium-range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v.5 (ERA5) reanalysis, TEMP and precipitation (PRE) from Climate Research Unit (CRU), and soil moisture (SM) and evapotranspiration (ET) from the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM). In addition, four teleconnection indices were considered: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This study used the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator to analyze trends, alongside multiple linear regression to investigate the relationships between TEMP, RH, and key climatic variables—namely evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture (SM), and precipitation (PRE)—as well as large-scale teleconnection indices (e.g., IOD, ENSO, PDO, and NAO) on annual and seasonal scales. The key findings are as follows: (1) mean annual TEMP exceeding 30 °C and RH less than 30% were concentrated in arid regions of the Sahelian–Sudano belt in West Africa (WAF), Central Africa (CAF) and North East Africa (NEAF). Semi-arid regions in the Sahelian–Guinean belt recorded moderate TEMP (25–30 °C) and RH (30–60%), while the Guinean coastal belt and Congo Basin experienced cooler, more humid conditions (TEMP < 20 °C, RH (60–90%). (2) Trend analysis using Mann–Kendal and Sen slope estimator analysis revealed spatial heterogeneity, with increasing TEMP and deceasing RH trends varying by region and season. (3) The warming rate was higher in arid and semi-arid areas, with seasonal rates exceeding annual averages (0.18 °C decade⁻¹). Winter (0.27 °C decade⁻¹) and spring (0.20 °C decade⁻¹) exhibited the strongest warming, followed by autumn (0.18 °C decade⁻¹) and summer (0.10 °C decade⁻¹). (4) RH trends showed stronger seasonal decline compared to annual changes, with reduction ranging from 5 to 10% per decade in certain seasons, and about 2% per decade annually. (5) Pearson correlation analysis demonstrated a strong negative relationship between TEMP and RH with a correlation coefficient of r = − 0.60. (6) Significant associations were also observed between TEMP/RH and both climatic variables (ET, SM, PRE) and large scale-teleconnection indices (ENSO, IOD, PDO, NAO), indicating that surface conditions may reflect a combination of local response and remote climate influences. However, further analysis is needed to distinguish the extent to which local variability is independently driven versus being a response to large-scale forcing. Overall, this research highlights the physical mechanism linking TEMP and RH trends and their climatic drivers, offering insights into how these changes may impact different ecological and socio-economic sectors. Full article

Although intensive studies have documented the recent increase in the frequency of the Central Pacific (CP) El Niño events, the underlying mechanism remains unclear. This motivates us to investigate the change in the frequency of CP El Niño events. By analyzing the occurrence of the CP El Niño events between 1960 and 2022, we confirm a statistically significant increase in the frequency of CP El Niño events since 2000. Over the 40 years between 1960 and 1999, eight CP El Niño events appeared. In contrast, over the 23 years between 2000 and 2022, six CP El Niño events are seen. The significant period of the CP El Niño shortens from 4–5 years to 2–3 years. The increased frequency of CP El Niño events is closely related to more frequent warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific (5° S–5° N, 170° W–122° W) during the CP El Niño developing phase (June to October). A heat budget analysis of the mixed layer reveals that the SST variability in the central equatorial Pacific during the developing phase is determined by zonal temperature advection. The frequent anomalous warm zonal advection drives more frequent warm SST anomalies, and finally, the increased frequency of CP El Niño events, as observed. Full article

Semi-annual climate oscillations in the Western Hemisphere (20 S–35 N, 150 W–20 E) were studied via empirical orthogonal function (EOF) eigenvector loading patterns and principal component time scores from 1980 to 2023. The spatial loading maximum for 850 hPa zonal wind extended from the north Atlantic to the east Pacific; channeling was evident over the southwestern Caribbean. The eigenvector loading maximum for precipitation reflected an equatorial trough, while the semi-annual SST formed a dipole with loading maxima in upwelling zones off Angola (10 E) and Peru (80 W). Weakened Caribbean trade winds and strengthened tropical convection correlated with a warm Atlantic/cool Pacific pattern (R = 0.46). Wavelet spectral analysis of principal component time scores found a persistent 6-month rhythm disrupted only by major El Nino Southern Oscillation events and anomalous mid-latitude conditions associated with negative-phase Arctic Oscillation. Historical climatologies revealed that 6-month cycles of wind, precipitation, and sea temperature were tightly coupled in the Western Hemisphere by heat surplus in the equatorial ocean diffused by meridional overturning Hadley cells. External forcing emerged in early 2010 when warm anomalies over Canada diverted the subtropical jet, suppressing subtropical trade winds and evaporative cooling and intensifying the equatorial trough across the Western Hemisphere. Climatic trends of increased jet-stream instability suggest that the semi-annual amplitude may grow over time. Full article

A basic feature of El Niño is an abnormal increase in the surface temperature of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which can throw ocean–atmosphere interactions out of balance, resulting in heavy rainfall and severe storms. This climate anomaly causes different levels of impacts worldwide, such as causing droughts in some regions and excessive rainfall in others. Therefore, it is important to determine the formation of El Niño by predicting the changes in the sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. In this paper, we propose a multi-element fusion network model based on convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM) and an attention mechanism to predict the SST and analyze the effects of different elemental inputs on the model’s prediction performance using the prediction results. The experimental results show that using the sea surface wind (SSW) and sea level anomaly (SLA) as multi-element inputs to predict the SST overcame the shortcomings of the single-element forecast model, and the prediction accuracy of the two-element fusion model was better than that of the three-element fusion model. In the two-element fusion model, using the SSW as an input predicted the SST with a lower prediction error than using the SLA as an input and had better prediction performance compared with other benchmark models. For predicting the SST in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the monthly average root mean square error (RMSE) was mainly concentrated in the range of 0.4–0.8 °C, and the regions with a larger error dispersion were located in the spatial range of 5° S–5° N and 130° W–90° W, and the monthly average regional RMSE was mainly concentrated in the range of 0.5–1 °C. Finally, we also validated the prediction performance of the model for the SST in El Niño and La Niña years, and the prediction results of the model in La Niña years were better than those in El Niño years. Full article

As important components of the equatorial current system in the Indian Ocean, Wyrtki jets (WJs) play a significant role in distributing heat and matter in the East and West Indian Oceans. By dividing the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events into several phases, we find that the spring branch exhibits positive (negative) anomalies during the El Niño (La Niña) decaying phase, while the fall branch exhibits negative (positive) anomalies during the El Niño (La Niña) developing phase. The spring and fall branches are characterized by negative (positive) anomalies under the influence of positive (negative) dipole events, and these anomalies are particularly pronounced during fall. This study systematically analyzes the characteristics of WJs under the interactions between the Indo-Pacific ocean and the atmosphere, based on the phase-locking characteristics of ENSO, and reveals the regulatory mechanisms underlying their different response patterns. Full article

The equatorial Pacific serves as the world’s largest oceanic source of CO₂. The contrasting ocean environment in the eastern (i.e., upwelling) and western (i.e., warm pool) regions makes it difficult to fully characterize its CO₂ dynamics with limited in situ observations. In this study, we addressed this challenge using monthly surface partial pressure of CO₂ (pCO₂sw) and air-sea CO₂ fluxes (FCO₂) data products reconstructed from satellite and reanalysis data at a spatial resolution of 1° × 1° in the period of 1982–2021. We found that during the very strong El Niño events (1997/1998, 2015/2016), both pCO₂sw and FCO₂ showed a significant decrease of 41–58 μatm and 0.5–0.8 mol·m⁻²·yr⁻¹ in the eastern equatorial Pacific, yet they remained at normal levels in the western equatorial Pacific. In contrast, during the very strong La Niña events (1999/2000, 2007/2008, and 2010/2011), both pCO₂sw and FCO₂ showed a strong increase of 40–48 μatm and 1.0–1.4 mol·m⁻²·yr⁻¹ in the western equatorial Pacific, yet with little change in the eastern equatorial Pacific. In the past 40 years, pCO₂sw in the eastern equatorial Pacific was increasing at a higher rate (2.32–2.51 μatm·yr⁻¹) than that in the western equatorial Pacific (1.75 μatm·yr⁻¹), resulting in an accelerating CO₂ outgassing (at a rate of 0.03 mol·m⁻²·yr⁻²) in the eastern equatorial Pacific. We comprehensively analyzed the potential effects of different factors, such as sea surface temperature, sea surface wind speed, and ΔpCO₂ in driving CO₂ fluxes in the equatorial Pacific, and found that ΔpCO₂ had the highest correlation (R ≥ 0.80, at p ≤ 0.05), highlighting the importance of accurate estimates of pCO₂sw from satellites. Further studies are needed to constrain the retrieval accuracy of pCO₂sw in the equatorial Pacific from satellite remote sensing. Full article

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) alters ocean–atmosphere carbon exchange, but the mechanisms by which it affects the air–sea carbon flux (FCO₂) remain unclear. Here, we used gridded FCO₂ data from 2003 to 2021 to elucidate the control processes and regional differences in the influence of the ENSO on FCO₂ in the mid–low latitude Pacific Ocean. Overall, the mid–low latitude Pacific Ocean region was a net sink for CO₂, with an average uptake rate of −0.39 molC·m⁻²·year⁻¹. Specifically, during the La Niña period in 2010–2012, the absorption rate decreased by 15.38%, while during the El Niño period in 2015–2016, it increased by 30.77%. El Niño (La Niña) suppressed (promoted) biological primary production in the North Pacific, leading to reduced (enhanced) carbon uptake. El Niño (La Niña) also inhibited (promoted) physical vertical mixing in the Equatorial Pacific, leading to reduced (enhanced) carbon emissions. In the South Pacific, however, El Niño increased carbon uptake and La Niña decreased carbon uptake; although, not by these two processes. More frequent El Niño in the future will further reduce carbon absorption in the North Pacific and carbon emission in the Equatorial Pacific but increase carbon absorption in the South Pacific. Full article

A major challenge for climate system models in simulating the impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variations of East Asian rainfall anomalies is the wide inter-model spread of outputs, which causes considerable uncertainty in physical mechanism understanding and short-term climate prediction. This study investigates the fidelity of 40 models from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in representing the impacts of ENSO on South China Spring Rainfall (SCSR) during the ENSO decaying spring. The response of SCSR to ENSO, as well as the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO), is quite different among the models; some models even simulate opposite SCSR anomalies compared to the observations. However, the models capturing the ENSO-related warm SSTAs over TIO tend to simulate a better SCSR-ENSO relationship, which is much closer to observation. Therefore, models are grouped based on the simulated TIO SSTAs to explore the modulating processes of the TIO SSTAs in ENSO affecting SCSR anomalies. Comparing analysis suggests that the warm TIO SSTA can force the equatorial north–south antisymmetric circulation in the lower troposphere, which is conducive to the westward extension and maintenance of the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC). In addition, the TIO SSTA enhances the upper tropospheric East Asian subtropical westerly jet, leading to anomalous divergence over South China. Thus, the westward extension and strengthening of WNPAC can transport sufficient water vapor for South China, which is associated with the ascending motion caused by the upper tropospheric divergence, leading to the abnormal SCSR. Full article

Understanding global sea level variations and exploring their causes hold significant importance for future climate change predictions and the sustainable development of mankind, with the steric sea level (SSL) variations being one of the primary contributors to these changes. Here, we utilize four types of temperature and salinity products (i.e., EN4, IAP, SODA, and GDCSM) to investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of global SSL changes from 1980 to 2020. We also explore the relationship between SSL changes and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The findings reveal a rising trend of 0.64–0.97 mm/a in global SSL over the past 40 years, and the annual amplitudes of SSL time series are within the range of 0–50 mm. The SSL trend at a depth of 0–100 m exerts the greatest influence on the overall trend. The ENSO phenomenon has an obvious influence on sea level changes both in the equatorial Pacific region and global scale. The changes in the global sea level (GSL) associated with ENSO are primarily caused by changes in SSL. This study benefits the understanding of SSL changes and their connection to climate change, serves as a reference for comprehensively assessing sea level change mechanisms using diverse datasets and remote sensing technology, and further provides a scientific basis for the sustainable development of mankind in coastal areas. Full article

The influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on productivity at upwelling systems has been extensively studied. However, in recent decades, ENSO diversity has been documented; there are more frequent events with anomalies in the central Pacific (CP) causing ecological impacts that are different from the canonical events centered in the eastern Pacific (EP). We hypothesize that ENSO effects on upwelling intensity and its biological response are highly dependent on ENSO diversity. Wavelet coherence was computed for monthly standardized anomalies of Ekman transport and sea surface Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration from eight upwelling centers located along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula (1993–2022). Ekman transport (ET) showed a non-linear association with ENSO at interannual periodicities between 1.2 and 7 years, as well as semiannual scale variability. Coherence between ENSO and ET showed a reduction in upwelling intensity during CP ENSO events and an increased upwelling intensity after EP El Niño events with regional differences. Our results reveal an influence of northern Pacific circulation that subsequently influences ENSO events during its development and its peak. We detected an influence of SST and wind anomalies on the ENSO–Ekman transport connection associated with the northern Pacific Meridional Mode pattern. The CP shows an important role in sea surface Chl-a concentration anomalies (1998–2022). We highlight the conceptual relevance of distinguishing ENSO diversity, with influential ecological effects associated with CP ENSO events. Full article

A lack of natural resources drives the oil dependency in Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs), hampering energy security and imposing high electricity tariffs in the region. Nevertheless, the Western Equatorial Pacific is known for its large Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and deep-sea water (DSW) temperature difference favorable for harvesting thermal energy. In this study, we selected 18 PICTs in the western Equatorial Pacific to estimate Annual Energy Production (AEP) for a 1 MW class Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) plant. We combined the DSW temperature from the mean in situ Argo profiles and 1 km resolution satellite SST data to estimate the thermal energy resource resolving the fine features of the island coastline. Furthermore, the twenty-year-long SST dataset was used to analyze the SST variability. The analysis showed that Equatorial islands and Southern islands have the highest inter-annual variability due to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The power density varied from 0.26 to 0.32 W/m² among the islands, with the lowest values found for the southernmost islands near the South Equatorial Countercurrent. Islands within the South Equatorial Current, Equatorial Undercurrent, and North Equatorial Countercurrent showed the highest values for both power density and gross power. Considering a 1 MW class OTEC plant, Annual Energy Production (AEP) in 2022 varied from 7 GWh to 8 GWh, with relatively low variability among islands near the Equator and in low latitudes. Considering the three variables, AEP, SST variability, and distance from the shore, Nauru is a potential candidate for OTEC, with a net power of 1.14 MW within 1 km from the shore. Full article

Freshwater availability in Pacific equatorial atolls is highly variable because of the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on rainfall. IPCC projections for the central and western tropical Pacific suggest annual rainfall (P_a) will increase as sea surface temperature (SST) rises. Future changes in ENSO frequency and intensity and in hydrological droughts, however, are uncertain. Here, trends in monthly, seasonal, annual, annual maximum, and minimum rainfall in two equatorial atolls in the eastern and central tropical Pacific are compared with trends in the SST of the surrounding Nino regions from 1951 to 2023. Significant increasing trends in the warm season, annual, and annual maximum SST in the Nino1 + 2, Nino3, and Nino4 regions were of order +1.0 °C/100 y. There were no significant trends in the cool season or annual minimum SST. Despite ocean warming, there were no significant trends in atoll P_a, in intra-annual or interannual variability over 7 decades for either SST or P_a, or in the relative strengths of warm/cool and wet/dry seasons. Extreme, large P_a only occurred after 1987, indicative of ocean warming. Extreme, small P_a happened throughout the period, suggesting no change in drought frequency. Correlations between 12-month P and SST were very strong, with historic rates of increases in P_a of around 1200 mm/y/°C, consistent with projections. The results indicate that the recharge of atoll groundwater will increase as oceans warm, but droughts will remain a major challenge. Full article

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases and flavors, as well as off-equatorial climate modes, strongly influence sea surface temperature (SST) patterns in the eastern tropical Pacific and downstream climate. Prior studies rely on EOFs (which characterize fractional SST variance) to diagnose climate-scale SST structures, limiting the ability to link individual ENSO flavors with downstream phenomena. Hierarchical and k-means clustering methods are used to construct Eastern Pacific patterns from the ERSST dataset spanning 1950 to 2021. Cluster analysis allows for the direct linkage of individual SST years/seasons to ENSO phase, providing insight into ENSO flavors and associated downstream impacts. In this study, four clusters are revealed, each depicting unique SST patterns influenced by ENSO and Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) phases. A case study demonstrating the utility of the clusters was also carried out using accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins. Results showed that Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño suppresses Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity, while Central Pacific (CP) La Niña enhances it. Further, EP El Niño, coupled with positive PMM, amplifies ACE. Ultimately, the methods used herein offer a cleaner analysis tool for identifying dominant SSTA patterns and employing those patterns to diagnose downstream climatic effects. Full article

The results of a piControl experiment investigating general circulation models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) were examined. The global interannual variability in the monthly surface temperature (ST) and sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies was considered. The amplitudes of the fluctuations in the anomalies of these meteorological fields between opposite phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) were calculated. It was shown that most CMIP6 models reproduced fluctuations in the ST and SLP anomalies between El Niño and La Niña not only in the equatorial Pacific, but also throughout the tropics, as well as in the middle and high latitudes. Some of the CMIP6 models reproduced the global structures of the ST and SLP anomaly oscillations quite accurately between opposite phases of ENSO, as previously determined from observational data and reanalyses. It was found that the models AS-RCEC TaiESM1, CAMS CAMS-CSM1-0, CAS FGOALS-f3-L, CMCC CMCC-ESM2, KIOST KIOST-ESM, NASA GISS-E2-1-G, NCAR CESM2-WACCM-FV2, and NCC NorCPM1 reproduced strong ENSO teleconnections in regions beyond the tropical Pacific. Full article

Using typhoon data from the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of the China Meteorological Administration, the Japan Meteorological Agency’s annual Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) index, and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1951 to 2021, correlation and composite analyses were carried out to study the relationship between the variability among tropical cyclones of different magnitudes affecting South China and the PDO. The results show that there is an obvious out-of-phase relationship between the proportion of tropical cyclones reaching a typhoon-level intensity or above in South China and the PDO index. When the PDO is in a cold (warm) phase, the sea surface temperature in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific is cold (warm), similar to the eastern Pacific La Niña (El Niño) phenomenon, and the SST in the eastern and western tropical Pacific Ocean shows a negative (positive) gradient; the subtropical high in the western Pacific Ocean is weaker (stronger) than normal, with the western ridge point to the east (west), and the 500 hPa geopotential height in the South China Sea and the area east of the Philippines is weaker (stronger), which is conducive to (unfavorable to) the formation of a monsoon trough; and the westerly (easterly) winds at high altitudes and the southwesterly (northeasterly) winds at low altitudes from the South China Sea to the Philippines are abnormally strong, and a positive (negative) vorticity at low altitudes, a low (high) sea level pressure, and strong (weak) convection are shown. These conditions are favorable (unfavorable) for the intensification of typhoons affecting South China, and as a result, the number of tropical cyclones reaching the level of typhoons or above account for a greater (smaller) proportion of those affecting South China. Full article