Search Results (106)

In this paper, we analyze the impacts of financial innovation and financial deepening on the economic growth of 14 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries from 1995 to 2023. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and error correction model (ECM) were used to assess short- and long-run effects. The findings indicate that mobile cellular subscriptions and government spending are the main contributors to national economic growth and that money supply has a positive impact. However, the strong negative effect of capital formation on economic growth is contrary to expectations. Conversely, the findings confirm that gross capital formation has a strong positive effect on gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the long run. Bounds testing reveals varying degrees of cointegration across countries. Long-run relationships were confirmed in Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, and Zimbabwe, all of which showed evidence of strong cointegration. These findings support policy recommendations aimed at promoting sustainable economic growth in SSA economies through targeted policies that increase domestic credit in the private sector and attract foreign direct investment (FDI). Full article

The role of international financial resource inflows, foreign direct investment (FDI), development foreign assistance (DFA), and personal remittance earnings (PRE) in decisive advancement toward environmental sustainability (SDG13) and economic development is increasingly recognized. However, depending on the situation, their effects on environmental outcomes vary in degree and direction, and are still subject to debate. This research examines how the three main international financial resources impact environmental sustainability, which is measured by the bio-capacity index, with a specific focus on the moderating role of corruption. The system panel generalized method of moments with balanced panel data (2001–2023) was used to attain the objectives of this study. This study focused on 28 developing Organization of Islamic Cooperation member countries because of their significant reliance on these financial inflows, regional/economic variety, and diverse levels of governance, which offer a crucial setting for evaluating the corruption moderation hypothesis. The findings reveal a comprehensive scenario of SDG synergies and trade-offs. In the base model, FDI directly improves the situation, whereas DFA and PRE are initially negligible. When considering internal economic factors, FDI and PRE greatly advance sustainability, whereas domestic financial measures such as domestic credit and fixed capital formation show adverse effects, underscoring a tension between environmental objectives and national financial systems. Importantly, the moderation analysis shows that while the advantages of FDI and PRE continue to be robust, corruption severely reduces the efficacy of DFA. To assure environmental effectiveness, these findings call for distinct policies that encourage green FDI, leverage remittances for green investments at the family level, and above all, fasten development assistance to strict governance changes. Full article

This study examines how sovereign risk shapes the financial performance of sustainable investments, using the MSCI Emerging Markets ESG Index as a reference. The analysis covers 24 emerging and frontier economies from Latin America, Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe during 2016–2025, a period marked by major global disruptions such as the COVID-19 crisis and post-2022 financial tightening. Sovereign risk dimensions are extracted through Principal Component Analysis (PCA) applied to sovereign CDS spreads, identifying a systemic component linked to global shocks and a structural component associated with domestic fundamentals and governance quality. These factors are integrated into a quantile regression framework alongside control variables—oil prices, interest rates, and global equity indices—capturing key macro-financial transmission channels. Results show a nonlinear, quantile-dependent relationship: systemic risk intensifies ESG losses under adverse conditions, while structural improvements support gains in upper quantiles. Control variables behave as expected, confirming the macro-financial sensitivity of ESG performance. The findings reveal that ESG returns are state-dependent and strongly influenced by sovereign credit dynamics, especially in emerging markets where external shocks and institutional fragility intersect. Strengthening sovereign governance and integrating risk diagnostics into ESG assessments are essential steps to enhance resilience and credibility in sustainable finance. Full article

Traditional approaches to predicting business cycles are limited by their omission of financial variables, which, in turn, leads to failures to signal financial-sector crises and to misestimate the duration and intensity of economic events. This study addresses this challenge by constructing a real-financial activity gap for South Africa and utilising it to predict the occurrence of economic recoveries. The study examines the period from 1970Q1 to 2023Q4, using real GDP, domestic credit, house prices, and share prices. The dynamic factor model and the Hodrick–Prescott filter are employed to construct the real-financial activity gap. The recursive ADF unit root test is used to assess the presence, frequency, and duration of economic recoveries. To validate the results, a Markov switching dynamic regression model is applied. The results reveal that the new gap tends to produce economic recovery predictions that are less frequent but longer in duration. In contrast, predictions based on real GDP lead to more frequent but shorter recoveries. The new gap suggests that financial variables contribute to stabilising growth over extended periods, whereas real GDP reflects quicker but more volatile economic adjustments. The latest gap offers a more stable basis for forecasting recoveries, aiding policymakers in better anticipating and mitigating economic downturns. Accordingly, the output gap and the real-financial activity gap should be used as complements. Full article

This paper investigates the impact of green credit policy (GCP) on the green technological innovation capacity of heavily polluting enterprises (HPEs) from the perspectives of external financing and internal concerns. Using data from companies in China’s A-share market from 2008 to 2021, we study the shocks of Green Credit Guidelines to the green technological innovation in HPEs based on the difference-in-differences (DID) model. The baseline regression result reveals that the GCP significantly motivates HPEs to engage in green technological innovation. Moreover, the efficiency of capital utilization has an adverse moderating effect on the impact of GCP, while commercial credit financing has a positive moderating effect. Mechanism analysis shows that the GCP stimulates green technological innovation in HPEs by reinforcing short-term loan dependence and strengthening executive green awareness. In a further study, the policy effects are heterogeneous for enterprises with different characteristics. Regionally, green credit policy affects enterprises in China’s eastern region more strongly. The effect is also more pronounced for Chinese domestic enterprises and those with low financial background heterogeneity within top management teams. Overall, the findings in this study have important implications for policymakers in implementing green finance policies. Full article

This study explores the impact of credit spreads—defined as the difference between corporate bond yields and matched government bond yields—and macro-financial conditions on Japanese firms’ decision-making regarding whether to issue corporate bonds in domestic or international markets. Using firm-level panel data from 2010 to 2019, we employ fixed-effects regressions to identify the determinants of credit spreads and assess their influence on issuance location. The results suggest that firms strategically opt for foreign markets when anticipating narrower spreads, despite the typically higher borrowing costs associated with overseas issuance. Sensitivity to credit spreads systematically varies with issuer characteristics—such as leverage and credit ratings—and market elements—including the United States volatility and stock performance. Interaction models further demonstrate that market selection dynamically responds to pricing signals and uncertainty. By connecting credit spread formation to venue choice, this study provides a new perspective on cross-border financing in segmented capital markets. These findings offer theoretical insights and practical implications for understanding how firms adapt their debt strategies in response to global financial conditions. Full article

This study examines the impact of personal remittances on housing prices in European Union (EU) countries, while also accounting for a broader set of macroeconomic, demographic, and structural variables. Using annual data for 27 EU countries from 2007 to 2022, we employ a comprehensive panel econometric approach, including cross-sectional dependence tests, second-generation unit root tests, pooled mean group–autoregressive distributed lag (PMG-ARDL) estimation, and panel causality tests, to capture both short- and long-term dynamics. Our findings confirm that remittances significantly and positively influence long-term housing price levels, underscoring their relevance as a demand-side driver. Other key variables such as net migration, GDP, travel credit to GDP, economic freedom, and real effective exchange rates also contribute to housing price movements, while supply-side indicators, including production in construction and building permits, exert moderating effects. Moreover, real interest rates are shown to have a significant long-term negative effect on property prices. The analysis reveals key causal links from remittances, FDI, and net migration to housing prices, highlighting their structural and predictive roles. Bidirectional causality between economic freedom, housing output, and prices indicates reinforcing feedback effects. These findings position remittances as both a development tool and a key indicator of real estate dynamics. The study highlights complex interactions between international financial flows, demographic pressures, and domestic economic conditions and the need for policymakers to consider remittances and migrant investments in real estate strategies. These findings offer important implications for policymakers seeking to balance housing affordability, investment, and economic resilience in the EU context and key insights into the complexity of economic factors and real estate prices. Importantly, the analysis identifies several causal relationships, notably from remittances, FDI, and net migration toward housing prices, underscoring their predictive and structural importance. Bidirectional causality between economic freedom and house prices, as well as between housing output and pricing, reflects feedback mechanisms that further reinforce market dynamics. These results position remittances not only as a developmental instrument but also as a key signal for real estate market performance in recipient economies. Full article

Credit-linked notes (CLNs) are vital for transferring and diversifying credit risks in asset securitization, yet their application in China remains limited despite policy support. This paper optimizes China’s CLN pricing mechanism by developing the structured model incorporating the dynamic default boundary and the probability of government implicit guarantees. The model transforms the pricing problem into a semi-unbounded problem via partial differential methods, yielding an explicit pricing solution through Poisson’s formula. Empirical analysis reveals that government implicit guarantees are observed in systemically important institutions in the domestic CLN market and significantly reduce credit risk premiums, with Monte Carlo simulations indicating an approximately positive linear correlation between guarantee probability and CLN prices. Our results demonstrate the dual impact of implicit guarantees—lowering risk premiums while potentially hindering market discipline. This research advances China’s credit derivative pricing theory, offering institutions a pricing tool and further providing policy and practical suggestions for regulatory authorities. Full article

Housing prices have recently risen sharply in many countries, primarily linked to the global credit cycle. Although various factors play a role, the ability of developing countries to navigate this cycle and maintain autonomous monetary policies is crucial. This paper introduces a dynamic macroeconomic model featuring a housing production sector within an imperfect banking framework. It captures key housing and economic dynamics in advanced and emerging economies. The analysis shows domestic liquidity policies, such as bank capital requirements, reserve ratios, and currency devaluation, can stabilize investment and production. However, their effectiveness depends on foreign interest rates and liquidity. Stabilizing housing prices and risk-free bonds is more effective in high-interest environments, while foreign liquidity shocks have asymmetric impacts. They can boost or lower the effectiveness of domestic policy, depending on the country’s level of financial development. These findings have several policy implications. For example, foreign capital controls would be adequate in the short term but not in the long term. Instead, governments would try to promote the development of local financial markets. Controlling debt should be a target for macroprudential policy as well as promoting saving instruments other than real estate, especially during low interest rates. Full article

Globally, forest leisure and recreation (FLR) activities are widely recognized not only for their environmental and social benefits but also for their economic contributions. To better understand these economic contributions, it is vital to examine how the regional economic levels of customers vary when consuming FLR. This study aimed to empirically examine whether the regional economic level of residents (i.e., gross regional domestic product; GRDP) is classifiable using FLR expenditure data, and to interpret which variables contribute to its classification. We acquired anonymized credit card transaction data on residents of two regions with different GRDP levels. The data were preprocessed by identifying FLR-related industries and extracting key spending features for classification analysis. Five classification models (e.g., deep neural network (DNN), random forest, extreme gradient boosting, support vector machine, and logistic regression) were applied. Among the models, the DNN model presented the best performance (overall accuracy = 0.73; area under the curve (AUC) = 0.82). SHAP analysis showed that the “FLR industry” variable was most influential in differentiating GRDP levels across all the models. These findings demonstrate that FLR consumption patterns may vary and are interpretable by economic levels, providing an empirical framework for designing regional economic policies. Full article

This study investigates the relationship between sovereign credit rating transitions and domestic equity market performance, focusing on Greece from 2004 to 2024. Although credit ratings are central to sovereign risk assessment, their immediate influence on financial markets remains contested. This research adopts a multi-method analytical framework combining algebraic combinatorics and time-series econometrics. The methodology incorporates the construction of a directed credit rating transition graph, the partially ordered set representation of rating hierarchies, rolling-window correlation analysis, Granger causality testing, event study evaluation, and the formulation of a reward matrix with optimal rating path optimization. Empirical results indicate that credit rating announcements in Greece exert only modest short-term effects on the Athens Stock Exchange General Index, implying that markets often anticipate these changes. In contrast, sequential downgrade trajectories elicit more pronounced and persistent market responses. The reward matrix and path optimization approach reveal structured investor behavior that is sensitive to the cumulative pattern of rating changes. These findings offer a more nuanced interpretation of how sovereign credit risk is processed and priced in transparent and fiscally disciplined environments. By bridging network-based algebraic structures and economic data science, the study contributes a novel methodology for understanding systemic financial signals within sovereign credit systems. Full article

Amid intensified global climate mitigation efforts, integrating rail freight into carbon emissions trading schemes became critical under China’s “Dual-Carbon” strategy. Despite rail’s significantly lower emissions intensity compared to road transport, existing pricing frameworks inadequately internalized its environmental externalities, which limited its competitive advantage. To address this gap, this study systematically reviewed international and domestic practices of integrating transport into carbon trading systems and developed a novel “four-layer, three-dimensional” emissions trading scheme (ETS) framework tailored specifically for China’s rail freight sector. Employing a Stackelberg bilevel optimization model, this study analyzed how carbon quotas and pricing influenced rail operators’ pricing and investment decisions. The results showed that under optimized quotas and carbon prices, railway enterprises were able to generate surplus carbon credits, creating new revenue streams and enabling freight rate reductions. This “carbon revenue–freight rate feedback loop” not only delivered environmental benefits but also enhanced rail’s economic competitiveness. Overall, this study significantly advances the understanding of carbon-based pricing mechanisms in railway freight, providing robust theoretical insights and actionable policy guidance for achieving sustainable decarbonization in China’s transport sector. Full article

The evolving macroeconomic landscape, shaped by the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, poses significant challenges for economies worldwide. However, Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries have demonstrated resilience and rapid recovery during crises, driven by a surge in consumption fueled by domestic credit and robust export growth supported by flexible exchange rates and adaptive monetary policies. Prior to EU accession, substantial foreign direct investment (FDI) during privatization and restructuring facilitated knowledge and technology transfers in CESEE economies. This study examines the interplay of exports, real exchange rates, GDP growth, FDI, inflation, domestic credit, and the human development index (HDI) in the CESEE region from 1995 to 2022, covering the transition period, EU accession, and major crises. Employing a panel ARDL model, we account for asymmetric effects of these variables on exports. The results reveal that GDP, FDI, inflation, domestic credit, and HDI significantly and positively influence exports, with HDI and GDP exerting the strongest effects, underscoring the pivotal roles of human capital and economic growth in enhancing export competitiveness. Conversely, real exchange rate depreciation negatively impacts exports, though non-price factors, such as product quality, mitigate this effect. These findings provide a robust basis for targeted policy measures to strengthen economic resilience and export performance in the CESEE region. Full article

In the global pursuit of sustainable development and climate change mitigation, reconciling export growth with environmental protection has emerged as a universal challenge. As the world’s largest developing economy, China has traditionally relied on a resource-intensive development model to fuel rapid foreign trade growth. However, this extensive growth pattern has not only led to environmental pollution domestically but has also encountered hurdles from international green trade barriers. Finance, as a key driver of stable economic growth, plays a pivotal role in achieving high-quality trade development. Against this backdrop, the Chinese government has introduced the green credit interest subsidies policy. This policy aims to coordinate government financial resources and guide capital toward green production, alleviating financing constraints and fostering the upgrading of export product quality. Utilizing data from the World Bank, China Customs statistics, and provincial panels from 2011 to 2020, this study employs a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) model to examine the causal impact of the green credit subsidies policy on efforts to upgrade the export quality of green products across China’s regions. The benchmark regression results indicate that the green credit interest subsidies policy has significantly improved the export quality of green products across China’s manufacturing industries. Heterogeneity analysis shows that this policy has had a more pronounced positive impact on green product quality in industries with quality-based competition strategies, in regions with well-coordinated local finance and financial policies, as well as in countries that have concluded environmental clauses with China. Mechanism analysis reveals that, on the export side, the policy enhances green product quality by easing financing constraints, increasing green credit, boosting productivity, and upgrading industrial structures. On the import side, the policy promotes green product quality by expanding the scale, variety, and quality of green intermediate goods. This research offers valuable insights for developing countries aiming to establish export-oriented green transformation and upgrading strategies. Full article

China’s engagement with global governance has evolved significantly since 1949, transitioning from outright rejection during its revolutionary isolation (1949–1971) to strategic engagement with key institutions such as the United Nations, IMF, and WTO (1971–2000), and more recently to the creation of parallel institutions like the AIIB and Belt and Road Initiative (2000–present). This paper traces these historical phases to analyze how China has navigated and reshaped global norms, balancing its integration into existing frameworks with efforts to build alternative governance structures. While Hegemonic Stability Theory and Power Transition Theory offer insights into China’s evolving strategy, neither fully encapsulates its pragmatic, adaptive approach. China’s domestic regulatory innovations, such as the Social Credit System and its promotion of cyber sovereignty, increasingly influence its global governance initiatives, reflecting a deliberate effort to export its governance models. Rather than fully integrating into or replacing the U.S.-led liberal order, China employs a dual-track strategy: engaging with global institutions where advantageous while promoting state-centric alternatives to liberal norms. This study argues that China’s historical trajectory underscores its pivotal role in shaping a multipolar world order, where competing governance frameworks coexist and challenge the dominance of Western-led institutions. Full article