Search Results (460)

Landslide displacement prediction is crucial for disaster mitigation, yet traditional methods often fail to capture the complex, non-stationary spatiotemporal dynamics of slope evolution. This study introduces an enhanced prediction framework that integrates multi-scale signal processing with dynamic, geology-aware graph modeling. The proposed methodology first employs the Maximum Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform (MODWT) to denoise raw Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)-monitored displacement time series data, enhancing the underlying deformation features. Subsequently, a geology-aware graph is constructed, using the temporal correlation of displacement series as a practical proxy for physical relatedness between monitoring nodes. The framework’s core innovation lies in a dynamic graph optimization model with low-rank constraints, which adaptively refines the graph topology to reflect time-varying inter-sensor dependencies driven by factors like mining activities. Experiments conducted on a real-world dataset from an active open-pit mine demonstrate the framework’s superior performance. The DCRNN-proposed model achieved the highest accuracy among eight competing models, recording a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 2.773 mm in the Vertical direction, a 39.1% reduction compared to its baseline. This study validates that the proposed dynamic graph optimization approach provides a robust and significantly more accurate solution for landslide prediction in complex, real-world engineering environments. Full article

Wind power output sequences exhibit strong randomness and intermittency characteristics; traditional single forecasting models struggle to capture the internal features of sequences and are highly susceptible to interference from high-frequency noise and predictive accuracy is still notably poor at the peaks where the power curve undergoes abrupt changes. To address the poor fitting at peaks, a short-term wind power forecasting method based on the improved Informer model is proposed. First, the temporal convolutional network (TCN) is introduced to enhance the model’s ability to capture regional segment features along the temporal dimension, enhancing the model’s receptive field to address wind power fluctuation under varying environmental conditions. Next, a discrete cosine transform (DCT) is employed for adaptive modeling of frequency dependencies between channels, converting the time series data into frequency domain representations to extract its frequency features. These frequency domain features are then weighted using a channel attention mechanism to improve the model’s ability to capture peak features and resist noise interference. Finally, the Informer generative decoder is used to output the power prediction results, this enables the model to simultaneously leverage neighboring temporal segment features and long-range inter-temporal dependencies for future wind-power prediction, thereby substantially improving the fitting accuracy at power-curve peaks. Experimental results validate the effectiveness and practicality of the proposed model; compared with other models, the proposed approach reduces MAE by 9.14–42.31% and RMSE by 12.57–47.59%. Full article

Accurate and rapid prediction of structural responses to seismic loading is critical for ensuring structural safety. Recently, there has been active research focusing on the application of deep learning techniques, including Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, to predict the dynamic behavior of structures. While these methods have shown promise, each comes with distinct limitations. PINNs offer physical consistency but struggle with capturing long-term temporal dependencies in nonlinear systems, while LSTMs excel in learning sequential data but lack physical interpretability. To address these complementary limitations, this study proposes a hybrid LSTM-PINN model, combining the temporal learning ability of LSTMs with the physics-based constraints of PINNs. This hybrid approach allows the model to capture both nonlinear, time-dependent behaviors and maintain physical consistency. The proposed model is evaluated on both single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) and multi-degree-of-freedom (MDOF) structural systems subjected to the El-Centro ground motion. For validation, the 1940 El-Centro NS earthquake record was used, and the ground acceleration data were normalized and discretized for numerical simulation. The proposed LSTM-PINN is trained under the same conditions as the conventional PINN models (e.g., same optimizer, learning rate, and loss structure), but with fewer training epochs, to evaluate learning efficiency. Prediction accuracy is quantitatively assessed using mean error and mean squared error (MSE) for displacement, velocity, and acceleration, and results are compared with PINN-only models (PINN-1, PINN-2). The results show that LSTM-PINN consistently achieves the most stable and precise predictions across the entire time domain. Notably, it outperforms the baseline PINNs even with fewer training epochs. Specifically, it achieved up to 50% lower MSE with only 10,000 epochs, compared to the PINN’s 50,000 epochs, demonstrating improved generalization through temporal sequence learning. This study empirically validates the potential of physics-guided time-series AI models for dynamic structural response prediction. The proposed approach is expected to contribute to future applications such as real-time response estimation, structural health monitoring, and seismic performance evaluation. Full article

Automated parcel lockers (APLs) are transforming urban last-mile delivery by reducing failed distributions, decoupling delivery from recipient availability, optimizing carrier routes, reducing carbon foot-print and mitigating traffic congestion. The paper investigates the optimal design of APLs systems under stochastic demand and operational constraints, formulating the problem as a resource allocation optimization with service-level guarantees. We proposed a data-driven discrete-event simulation (DES) model implemented in ARENA to (i) determine optimal locker configurations that ensure customer satisfaction under stochastic parcel arrivals and dwell times, (ii) examine utilization patterns and spatial allocation to enhance system operational efficiency, and (iii) characterize inventory dynamics of undelivered parcels and evaluate system resilience. The results show that the configuration of locker types significantly influences the system’s ability to maintain high customers service levels. While flexibility in locker allocation helps manage excess demand in some configurations, it may also create resource competition among parcel types. The heterogeneity of locker utilization gradients underscores that optimal APLs configurations must balance locker units with their size-dependent functional interdependencies. The Dickey–Fuller GLS test further validates that postponed parcels exhibit stationary inventory dynamics, ensuring scalability for logistics operators. As a theoretical contribution, the paper demonstrates how DES combined with time-series econometrics can address APLs capacity planning in city logistics. For practitioners, the study provides a decision-support framework for locker sizing, emphasizing cost–service trade-offs. Full article

In this paper, we present a new space-time Galerkin-like method, where we treat the discretization of spatial and temporal domains simultaneously. This method utilizes a mixed formulation of the tensor-train (TT) and quantized tensor-train (QTT) (please see Section Tensor-Train Decomposition), designed for the finite element discretization (Q1-FEM) of the time-dependent convection–diffusion–reaction (CDR) equation. We reformulate the assembly process of the finite element discretized CDR to enhance its compatibility with tensor operations and introduce a low-rank tensor structure for the finite element operators. Recognizing the banded structure inherent in the finite element framework’s discrete operators, we further exploit the QTT format of the CDR to achieve greater speed and compression. Additionally, we present a comprehensive approach for integrating variable coefficients of CDR into the global discrete operators within the TT/QTT framework. The effectiveness of the proposed method, in terms of memory efficiency and computational complexity, is demonstrated through a series of numerical experiments, including a semi-linear example. Full article

We explored the stationarity, trend, and seasonality of the hive weight and in-hive temperature of ten managed honey bee (Apis mellifera) colonies at a research apiary of the Carl Hayden Bee Research Center in Tucson, Arizona, USA. The hives were monitored with electronic scales and in-hive temperature sensors from June to October 2022. The weight and temperature were recorded every five minutes around the clock. The collected data were curated into 2160 timestamped weight and 2160 timestamped temperature observations. We performed a systematic autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series analysis to answer three fundamental questions: (a) Does seasonality matter in the ARIMA forecasting of hive weight and in-hive temperature? (b) To what extent do the best forecasters of one hive generalize to other hives? and (c) Which time series type (i.e., hive weight or in-hive temperature) is better predictable? Our principal findings were as follows: (1) The hive weight and in-hive temperature series were not white noise, were not normally distributed, and, for most hives, were not difference- or trend-stationary; (2) Seasonality matters, in that seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) forecasters outperformed their ARIMA counterparts on the curated dataset; (3) The best hive weight and in-hive temperature forecasters of the ten monitored colonies appeared to be colony-specific; (4) The accuracy of the hive weight forecasts was consistently higher than that of the in-hive temperature forecasts; (5) The weight and temperature forecasts exhibited common qualitative patterns. Full article

Accurate multivariate time series forecasting remains a major challenge in various real-world applications, primarily due to the limitations of existing models in capturing multiscale temporal dependencies and effectively integrating external data. To address these issues, we propose MSP-EDA, a novel multivariate time series forecasting framework that integrates multiscale patching and external data enhancement. Specifically, MSP-EDA utilizes the Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) to extract dominant global periodic patterns and employs an adaptive Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) to capture scale-sensitive local variations. In addition, multiscale patches are constructed to capture temporal patterns at different resolutions, and a specialized encoder is designed for each scale. Each encoder incorporates temporal attention, channel correlation attention, and cross-attention with external data to capture intra-scale temporal dependencies, inter-variable correlations, and external influences, respectively. To fuse information from different temporal scales, we introduce a trainable global token that serves as a variable-wise aggregator across scales. Extensive experiments on four public benchmark datasets and three real-world vector database datasets that we collect demonstrate that MSP-EDA consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods, achieving particularly notable improvements on vector database workloads. Ablation studies further confirm the effectiveness of each module and the adaptability of MSP-EDA to complex forecasting scenarios involving external dependencies. Full article

Solar-powered pumping systems using series pumps are commonly applied in the delivery of water to remote agricultural regions, particularly in hilly tropical terrain. The synchronization of these pumps typically depends on reliable communication; however, dense vegetation, elevation changes, and weather conditions often disrupt signals. To address these limitations, a fully decentralized, communication-free control system is proposed. Each pumping station operates independently while maintaining synchronized operation through emulated neighbor sensing. The system applies a discrete-time control algorithm with virtual sensing that estimates neighboring pump statuses. Each station consists of a solar photovoltaic (PV) array, variable-speed drive, variable inlet valve, reserve tank, and local control unit. The controller adjusts the valve positions and pump power based on real-time water level measurements and virtual neighbor sensing. The simulation results across four scenarios, including clear sky, cloudy conditions, temporary outage, and varied irradiance, demonstrated steady-state operation with no water overflow or shortage and a steady-state error less than 4% for 3 m³ transfer. The error decreased as the average power increased. The proposed method maintained system functionality under simulated power outage and variable irradiance, confirming its suitability for remote agricultural areas where communication infrastructure is limited. Full article

With the advancement of spatial positioning technology, trajectory data have been growing rapidly. Trajectory data record the spatiotemporal information and behavioral characteristics of moving objects, and in-depth analysis can provide decision support for urban transportation. This paper explores effective methods for trajectory data representation, with a focus on the study of data fitting methods. Data fitting can extract key information and reveal underlying patterns, and the use of fitting methods can significantly improve the efficiency and accuracy of spatiotemporal trajectory data analysis, offering new perspectives and methodological support for related research fields. This paper integrates road network data to enhance trajectory data, treating trajectory data as a dynamic signal that changes over time. Through Fourier transformation, the data are converted from the time domain to the frequency domain, and trajectory points are fitted in the frequency spectrum domain, transforming discrete trajectory points into time-continuous linear elements. By referencing the minimum visually discernible distance and velocity precision requirements at a specific scale, thresholds for positional and velocity errors are set. The similarity between the Fourier-fitted trajectory and the original trajectory is measured in both spatial and temporal dimensions. By calculating the number of expansion terms of the Fourier series at a specific spatiotemporal scale, a functional relationship between the number of expansion terms, duration, and distance is fitted within the set threshold range (R² = 0.8424). This enables the Fourier series representation of any trajectory data under specific positional and velocity error thresholds. The errors in position and velocity obtained using this expression are significantly lower than the theoretical errors. The experimental results demonstrate that the Fourier fitting method exhibits strong generality and precision, effectively approximating the original trajectory, and provides a robust mathematical foundation for the quantification and detailed analysis of trajectory data. Full article

Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSSs) are widely used for positioning, timing, and navigation services. Such widespread usage makes them exposed to various threats including malicious attacks such as spoofing attacks. The availability of low-cost devices such as software-defined radios enhances the viability of performing such attacks. Efficient spoofing detection is of essential importance for the mitigation of such attacks. Although various methods have been proposed for that purpose it is still an important research topic. In this paper, we investigate the spoofing detection method based on the integrated usage of discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and machine learning (ML) techniques and propose efficient solutions. A series of experiments using different wavelets and machine learning techniques for Global Positioning System (GPS) and Galileo systems are performed. Moreover, the impact of the usage of different types of training data are explored. Following the computational complexity analysis, the potential for complexity reduction is investigated and computationally efficient solutions proposed. The obtained results show the efficacy of the proposed approach. Full article

It is a challenge to infer a gene regulatory network from time-series gene expression data in the systems biology field. A lack of gene expression data samples is a factor limiting the performance of the inference methods. To resolve this problem, we propose a novel autoencoder-based approach that synthesizes virtual gene expression data to be used as input to the inference method. Through intensive experiments, we showed that using synthetic gene expression as input improves the performance of the network inference method compared to that without it. In particular, the performance improvement was stable against the discretization level of gene expression, the number of time steps in the observed gene expression, and the number of genes. Full article

We present a model of classical binary time series derived from a matrix product state (MPS) Ansatz widely used in one-dimensional quantum systems. We discuss how this quantum Ansatz allows us to generate classical time series in a sequential manner. Our time series are built in two steps: First, a lower-level series (the driving noise or the increments) is created directly from the MPS representation, which is then integrated to create our ultimate higher-level series. The lower- and higher-level series have clear interpretations in the quantum context, and we elaborate on this correspondence with specific examples such as the spin-1/2 Ising model in a transverse field (ITF model), where spin configurations correspond to the increments of discrete-time, discrete-level stochastic processes with finite or infinite autocorrelation lengths, Gaussian or non-Gaussian limit distributions, nontrivial Hurst exponents, multifractality, asymptotic self-similarity, etc. Our time series model is a parametric model, and we investigate how flexible the model is in some synthetic and real-life calibration problems. Full article

This paper introduces a novel numerical approach for solving fractional stochastic differential equations (FSDEs) using bilinear time-series models, driven by the Caputo–Katugampola (C-K) fractional derivative. The C-K operator generalizes classical fractional derivatives by incorporating an additional parameter, enabling the enhanced modeling of memory effects and hereditary properties in stochastic systems. The primary contribution of this work is the development of an efficient numerical framework that combines bilinear time-series discretization with the C-K derivative to approximate solutions for FSDEs, which are otherwise analytically intractable due to their nonlinear and memory-dependent nature. We rigorously analyze the impact of fractional-order dynamics on system behavior. The bilinear time-series framework provides a computationally efficient alternative to traditional methods, leveraging multiplicative interactions between past observations and stochastic innovations to model complex dependencies. A key advantage of our approach is its flexibility in handling both stochasticity and fractional-order effects, making it suitable for applications in a famous nuclear physics model. To validate the method, we conduct a comparative analysis between exact solutions and numerical approximations, evaluating convergence properties under varying fractional orders and discretization steps. Our results demonstrate robust convergence, with simulations highlighting the superior accuracy of the C-K operator over classical fractional derivatives in preserving system dynamics. Additionally, we provide theoretical insights into the stability and error bounds of the discretization scheme. Using the changes in the number of simulations and the operator parameters of Caputo–Katugampola, we can extract some properties of the stochastic fractional differential model, and also note the influence of Brownian motion and its formulation on the model, the main idea posed in our contribution based on constructing the fractional solution of a proposed fractional model using known bilinear time series illustrated by application in nuclear physics models. Full article

This study introduces a wavelet-based framework for estimating derivatives of a general regression function within discrete-time, stationary ergodic processes. The analysis focuses on deriving the integrated mean squared error (IMSE) over compact subsets of ${\mathbb{R}}^d$, while also establishing rates of uniform convergence and the asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators. To investigate their asymptotic behavior, we adopt a martingale-based approach specifically adapted to the ergodic nature of the data-generating process. Importantly, the framework imposes no structural assumptions beyond ergodicity, thereby circumventing restrictive dependence conditions. By establishing the limiting behavior of the wavelet estimators under these minimal assumptions, the results extend existing findings for independent data and highlight the flexibility of wavelet methods in more general stochastic settings. Full article

This article describes an effective computing method for singularly perturbed parabolic problems with small negative shifts in convection and reaction terms. To handle the small negative shifts, the Taylor series expansion is used. The asymptotically equivalent singularly perturbed parabolic convection–diffusion–reaction problem is then discretized with the Crank–Nicolson method on a uniform mesh for the time derivative and a hybrid method on Shishkin-type meshes for the space derivative. The method’s stability and parameter-uniform convergence are established. To substantiate the theoretical findings, the numerical results are presented in tables and graphs are plotted. The present results improve the existing methods in the literature. Due to the effect of the small negative shifts in Examples 1 and 2, the numerical results using Shishkin and Bakhvalov–Shishkin meshes are almost the same. Since there are no small shifts in Examples 3 and 4, the numerical results using the Bakhvalov–Shishkin mesh are more efficient than using the Shishkin mesh. We conclude that the present method using the Bakhvalov–Shishkin mesh performs well for singularly perturbed problems without small negative shifts. Full article