Search Results (345)

Streamflow variations in the Middle Minjiang River Basin (MMR) are vital for the flood mitigation and water resources management of the Chengdu metropolitan area which is important for the development of Southwest China. However, how climate change, Chengdu metropolitan area and Zipingpu Reservoir influence streamflow in the MMR remains unclear. Hence, we coupled the Geomorphology-Based Ecohydrological Model (GBEHM), the Physic-aware Hybrid Learning (PaHL) model and the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model to reproduce streamflow variations at Pengshan station—the outlet cross section of MMR—from 1980 to 2019, subsequently performing attribution analysis. Annual streamflow at Pengshan station exhibits a decreasing trend from 1980 to 2019. Coupled simulations effectively reproduce daily streamflow at Pengshan station during 35 years, with values of NSE, R² and KGE exceeding 0.96. The dominant influence of anthropogenic disturbance on daily streamflow decrease is generally steady at Pengshan station, explaining 62.3% and 430.8% of it before and after the impoundment of Zipingpu Reservoir (in 2006), respectively. Majority of the climate change’s influence is notably concentrated from June to September, suggesting a potential temporal imbalance in water resources and a threat of extreme hydrological events. Our study contributes to flood mitigation and water resources management in the MMR. Full article

Accurate streamflow prediction in small catchments remains challenging due to their rapid response times, threshold-driven behaviors, and high spatial heterogeneity. This study develops and evaluates a novel modeling approach combining physics-informed feature selection with machine learning algorithms. Overall, 1825 model configurations were tested across fifteen algorithms (including Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost, Support Vector Machines, and deep learning methods) using multiple physics-informed input structures based on classical rainfall–runoff theory and mass balance conservation. Models were evaluated for predicting minimum, average, and maximum daily water levels and discharge. Results demonstrate that models structured around Green-Ampt infiltration assumptions consistently outperformed alternative configurations, with Random Forest achieving good performance for water level predictions. Causal models outperformed autoregressive approaches while the residuals analysis showed limitations in predicting extreme values. Feature importance analysis revealed that channel and catchment morphology and initial soil moisture conditions were dominant predictors, aligning with hydrological process understanding. Full article

Flood hazards are intensifying across Africa due to rapid urban expansion and hydro-climatic variability. This study develops a multi-metric geospatial framework combining extreme value analysis, hydrograph-based metrics, and dependence modelling to quantify flood magnitude, frequency, timing, and joint risk dynamics. Daily precipitation and streamflow reanalysis data (1985–2025) were analyzed for two contrasting Tanzanian catchments: the large Rufiji basin (RU) and the smaller Mirongo catchment (MW). Annual maxima were modelled using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, complemented by flow duration curves, peak-over-threshold detection, and regression-copula dependence analysis. Results reveal strong hydrological contrasts. RU exhibits amplified rare-event growth (design floods from ~2850 to 11,770 m³/s), extended recession persistence (>100 days), low flashiness, and long rainfall-runoff lags (~15 days), indicating storage-dominated behavior. MW shows smaller design floods (~80 to 370 m³/s), higher flashiness, and short lags (~4 days), reflecting rapid, rainfall-driven response. Gaussian copula parameters indicate moderate dependence in both basins (0.32 and 0.34), suggesting that joint dependence alone does not distinguish flood mechanisms without complementary metrics. The proposed framework improves basin-specific flood risk profiling and supports geospatial early-warning system design in data-scarce Sub-Saharan environments. Full article

This study presents an updated Hybrid Hydrological Forecasting System (HHFS) for streamflow prediction at the Santa Branca outlet, located in the upper Paraíba do Sul River Basin in southeastern Brazil, aiming to support hydropower-oriented water resources management. This paper is explicitly framed as a companion paper which introduced the original HHFS framework and demonstrated the feasibility of combining deterministic and probabilistic machine-learning approaches for monthly streamflow forecasting. Building upon that foundation, the present study develops and validates a substantially enhanced and operationally oriented version of the system. The upgraded HHFS replaces the original BR-DWGD forcing strategy—a Brazilian gridded meteorological dataset useful for research applications but not routinely updated for sustained operations—with ERA5, the fifth-generation global atmospheric reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which provides temporally consistent and operationally updated meteorological fields. This transition renders the framework fully operational while preserving the original dual-stage architecture, composed of a deterministic forecasting module (GA₁) and a hydro-adaptive uncertainty module (GA₂). In addition, the study introduces a daily short-term forecasting extension using a single multi-output XGBoost 2.1.1 model to predict streamflow from D+1 to D+10. Predictive uncertainty is quantified using split conformal prediction, a distribution-free uncertainty method that provides valid prediction intervals with empirical coverage guarantees. Coverage represents the proportion of observed values falling within the prediction intervals and is used here as a reliability metric. For the monthly product, the ERA5-based methodology maintained and slightly improved deterministic skill relative to the original BR-DWGD benchmark, with independent-test NSE increasing to 0.798, KGE to 0.878, and RMSE decreasing to 18.778 m³/s. The probabilistic component preserved a high hit rate and similar relative width, although coverage declined modestly to 0.838, indicating slight undercoverage relative to the previous reliability target. For the daily forecasts, predictive skill decreased progressively with lead time, from NSE = 0.881 at D+1 to 0.394 at D+10, accompanied by coherent widening of the uncertainty intervals. Taken together, these results demonstrate that ERA5 is a robust and operationally practical forcing source for the HHFS, preserving monthly forecasting skill while enabling a promising multi-day extension for anticipatory streamflow prediction across multiple temporal scales. Full article

Decomposition of nonlinear, nonstationary multicomponent signals remains challenging for existing decomposition strategies, including frequency-based, data-driven, and subspace methods, which can suffer from mode mixing, leakage across components, and unreliable isolation of transients. Motivated by this gap, this study proposes Orthogonal Self-Similarity Decomposition (OSSD), which exploits a self-similarity structure in delay-embedded orbit geometry so that temporal organization, rather than spectrum alone, guides component construction. OSSD-Basic introduces three algorithmic novelties within a single pipeline: (1) an adaptive proxy-correlation band merging on the delay axis, (2) a dominant-component cascade that prevents energy-dominant carriers from masking weaker components, and (3) a double MGS + LS reprojection that collapses the inter-mode orthogonality index to numerical zero, regardless of merging and pruning operations. Synthetic experiments with known ground truth show that OSSD-Basic provides a parsimonious four-mode representation with exact inter-mode orthogonality (OI = 9.4 × 10⁻¹⁸), the highest reconstruction SNR among the evaluated baselines (27.14 dB), and the highest ground-truth diagonal correlation sum (3.038) among the tested methods, while using two fewer modes than EMD, VMD, and SSA. Daily streamflow forecasting on a U.S. Geological Survey discharge record further shows that augmenting OSSD-derived inputs with fractal descriptors and fractional-order differencing features yields progressive accuracy gains over the AR-ANN baseline, with R² improving from 0.855 to 0.915 at one-step-ahead and from 0.388 to 0.699 at four-step-ahead forecasting in the single-input setting, within a single-station case study on USGS 01554000. Overall, OSSD-Basic offers an interpretable multiscale decomposition with guaranteed inter-mode orthogonality and a structured feature pathway for oscillatory–transient mixtures. Full article

Transboundary basins in arid and semi-arid regions are increasingly stressed by groundwater depletion, drought, and competing upstream water-management policies. Quantifying surface–groundwater interactions in such systems remains challenging due to sparse hydroclimatic observations. This study develops and applies a fully coupled SWAT–MODFLOW model to the Tigris–Euphrates River Basin (TERB; ~900,000 km²), the largest transboundary basin in the Middle East, to evaluate spatiotemporal stream–aquifer interactions and basin-scale water balance. The model integrates SWAT 2012 with MODFLOW-NWT at daily and monthly time steps and was calibrated and validated against monthly streamflow records from 23 gauges and groundwater levels from four wells over 1981–2002, with a 1976–1980 warm-up period. A multi-stage calibration strategy was adopted, including standalone SWAT calibration using SUFI-2, standalone MODFLOW calibration using PEST, and subsequent coupled refinement. Model performance was satisfactory, with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies exceeding 0.5 for streamflow and strong agreement between simulated and observed groundwater levels (R² = 0.92). Basin-integrated total water storage anomalies showed reasonable agreement with GRACE-derived estimates for 2002–2013 (R² ≈ 0.72). The basin-averaged net stream–aquifer exchange was estimated at −7.08 × 10⁶ m³ yr⁻¹, indicating net river leakage to aquifers, with a marked intensification after 1987 consistent with major upstream reservoir developments. Recharge patterns were highest over permeable foothill formations and lowest over consolidated northern highlands. The integrated use of streamflow, groundwater, and GRACE observations within a fully coupled framework provides a transferable approach for water-resources assessment in data-scarce transboundary basins. Full article

Intensifying hydroclimatic extremes have heightened the need for basin-scale indicators of antecedent wetness that are relevant to flood responses. However, ground-based soil-moisture observations are spatially sparse, and satellite products frequently exhibit temporal gaps. To address this limitation, this study integrated satellite- and ground-soil-moisture observations, hydro-meteorological variables, and observed streamflow data from 2018 to 2024 across 26 standard basins (SBs) within three dam basin regions in South Korea: the Nam River Dam (NGD) and the upstream and downstream regions of the Seomjin River Dam (SJD). Using this integrated dataset, we quantified the relationships among precipitation, basin wetness, and rapid discharge increases, subsequently deriving composite thresholds for flood early warnings. For each SB, we trained a Random Forest regression model using satellite-soil-moisture and basin-representative hydro-meteorological inputs—including 1-day accumulated precipitation (P_1d), 7-day accumulated precipitation (P_7d), the antecedent precipitation index (API), and related meteorological variables—to estimate a continuous, daily basin-representative soil-moisture series (SM_RF). Validation results indicated that the coefficient of determination (R²) ranged from 0.6 to 0.7 for most SBs. Extreme event days were consistently associated with elevated values of SM_RF, P_1d, P_7d, and API, demonstrating that antecedent wetness significantly influences the likelihood of rapid discharge events. Finally, composite threshold scanning yielded candidate rules characterized by high precision, moderate hit rates, and low false-alarm rates, confirming the efficacy of the proposed framework for developing flash-flood early-warning thresholds in South Korean dam basins. Full article

A remote analysis of coastal sedimentation in northern KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), South Africa, describes how summer runoff and winter wave-action operate within a highly variable climate. Despite rising sea levels, the sediment flux can sustain beaches under certain conditions. Daily satellite red-band reflectivity and ocean–atmosphere reanalysis datasets were studied over the period of 2018–2025. Statistical results indicate that streamflow discharges are spread northward by oblique wave-driven currents. Sediment concentrations peak during late winter (>1 mg/L, May–October) when deep turbulent mixing (>40 m) mobilizes sand from the seabed. A case study from September 2021 revealed that ridging high-pressure/cut-off low weather patterns can simultaneously increase streamflow, wave energy, and wind power, creating a surf-zone sediment conveyor along the coast of northern KZN. Long-term climate diagnostics from 1981 to 2025 reveal upward trends in coastal runoff, vegetation, and turbidity (0.29 σ/yr) that point to an increasingly vigorous water cycle. The warming of the southeast Atlantic intensifies the sub-tropical upper-level westerlies and late winter storms over southeast Africa. These processes occur in 5–8 year cycles and drive shoreline advance and retreat, from accretion ~1 T/m and storm surge inundations up to 5.5 m. Using Digital Earth, it was noted that ~1/4 of beaches around Africa are gaining sediment while ~1/3 are eroding. Although remote information could not close the sediment budget, realistic estimates of long-shore transport in the surf-zone (>10⁴ kg/yr/m) and on the beach (>10³ kg/yr/m) were calculated. These provide an emerging explanation for the resilience of northern KZN beaches, as sea levels rise at a rate of 0.6 cm/yr. Full article

This study investigates the influence of parametric uncertainty in the van Genuchten–Mualem (VGM) model on hydrological simulations and proposes a deterministic, soil-focused calibration strategy within the MOHID-Land model. The approach was applied to the Pedro do Rio watershed to quantify the impact of VGM parameters, typically estimated via pedotransfer functions, on streamflow performance and to reduce uncertainty through targeted calibration. A one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis using the 95% Prediction Uncertainty (95PPU) metric identified the saturated water content (θ_s) and pore-size distribution (n) as the most influential parameters. Calibration scenarios adjusting these parameters, especially Scenario S45 (+30% θ_s, +20% n), significantly improved model performance, increasing the Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) from 0.20 to 0.66 on a daily scale and to 0.80 on a monthly scale during the validation period. Subsequent hydrodynamic refinements raised the daily NSE to 0.72, while monthly performance remained unchanged. The results underscore that soil parameter uncertainty plays a central role in long-term water balance representation, while hydrodynamic parameters primarily influence short-term dynamics in steep, responsive basins. Overall, the proposed strategy provides a computationally efficient alternative to fully automatic calibration methods, delivering robust performance while maintaining physical consistency, particularly in data-scarce environments. Full article

Sustainable river management depends on indices that balance human water demands with ecological flow requirements while accounting for hydrological variability. Existing water scarcity and withdrawal indices are largely based on monthly or annual aggregates, often neglecting daily variability and the effects of drought buffering. This study introduces the Extractable Water Index (EWI), a novel, dimensionless metric that quantifies the sustainable potential for water extraction using daily flow records. The EWI integrates mean available flow, flow variability, low-flow thresholds, and storage contributions into a single expression, thereby capturing both hydrological dynamics and ecological protections. Two scenarios were evaluated, (i) no-storage and (ii) with-storage, with the latter employing a semi-analytical approximation to represent a reservoir or pond. The EWI was applied to 20 daily river flow series for 16 river basins in Sri Lanka. Under no-storage conditions, thresholds were defined as follows: EWI < 0.45 indicates low extraction potential; 0.45 < EWI < 0.60 indicates moderate extraction potential; and EWI > 0.75 indicates high extraction potential. The results demonstrate that even modest storage can substantially enhance sustainable withdrawals. The EWI provides a transparent, reproducible decision-support tool that complements environmental flow standards and prioritizes rivers based on extractability. The EWI provides a valuable tool for estimating water extraction potential within the Sri Lankan context. This index can be applied across diverse hydroclimatic regimes and, when combined with threshold validation, can predict extraction requirements under varying seasonal flow conditions. Full article

The sustainable use of freshwater resources includes balancing between human demand for water and the long-term health of river systems. Although dams and reservoirs are essential for water supply, flood control and energy generation, they can induce significant hydrological alterations, affecting water quality, sediment transport, downstream water availability, and aquatic and riparian ecosystems. In this study, we employed multifractal analysis to investigate hydrological changes in the São Francisco River basin, Brazil, resulting from the construction of a cascade of dams and reservoirs. We applied multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) to daily streamflow time-series spanning the period from 1929 to 2016, at locations both upstream and downstream of cascade dams, and for periods before and after dam construction. We calculated multifractal spectra f(α) and analyzed key complexity parameters: the position of the spectrum maximum α_0, representing the overall Hurst exponent H; the spectrum width W indicating the degree of multifractality; and the asymmetry parameter r, which reflects the dominance of small (r > 1) and large (r < 1) fluctuations. We found that after the construction of Sobradinho dam, located in the Sub-Middle São Francisco region, streamflow dynamics shifted towards a regime characterized by uncorrelated increments (H~0.5) and stronger multifractality (larger W), with the dominance of small fluctuations (r > 1). In contrast, the cumulative effect of all cascade dams downstream, in the Lower São Francisco region, led to streamflow regime with similarly uncorrelated increments (H~0.5), but with weaker multifractality (smaller W) and a dominance of large fluctuations (r < 1). The novelty of this work is the use of a sliding-window MFDFA approach to explore the temporal evolution of streamflow multifractality. This method uncovered otherwise hidden aspects of hydrological alterations, such as increasing tendency in spectrum width, indicating stronger multifractality and higher complexity of streamflow dynamics after the dam construction. These results demonstrate that multifractal analysis is a powerful tool for assessing the complexity of hydrological changes induced by human activities. Full article

Understanding the coupling between hydrological dynamics and carbon sequestration is critical for predicting hemiboreal forest resilience to climate extremes. This study investigates water–carbon interactions in the Järvselja forest (Estonia) through a multi-objective hybrid modeling framework. We integrated long-term (2014–2025) eddy covariance flux measurements and daily meteorological data with a coupled architecture combining the process-based GR4J-Cemaneige model and a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network. To validate the physical consistency of the deep learning component, we employed Support Vector Regression (SVR) diagnostic probes to map LSTM internal cell states against ERA5 soil moisture reanalysis data and in situ water table measurements. The combined LSTM + GR4J-Cemaneige model outperformed standalone approaches in the calibrated Reola catchment (NSE = 0.887), so by assuming hydrological similarity the hybrid model was regionalized to the streamflow ungauged Kalli basin. An in silico interpretability probe validated that the LSTM implicitly encoded physically meaningful soil moisture dynamics ($r>0.9$) without explicit training data. The analysis revealed that the 2018 heatwave triggered a synchronous collapse in water availability and carbon uptake, shifting the ecosystem from a robust sink to a net source. A significant legacy effect was observed, with carbon sequestration capacity lagging behind hydrological recovery for two years. The results of this paper substantiate the influence of climate warming on hemiboreal forests, demonstrating its implications for soil hydrology and the availability of water to sustain photosynthesis. Full article

Floods pose significant risks to human lives, infrastructure, and the environment. Timely and accurate flood forecasting plays a pivotal role in mitigating these risks. This study proposes a Digital Twin proof-of-concept framework aimed at improving flood forecasting and validated its effectiveness through a pilot study of the 2021 flood event in Luxembourg. The baseline forecasting method combines GloFAS ensemble streamflow forecasts with a high-resolution flood hazard datacube generated using a LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model and then averaging among the member forecasts. To dynamically update the flood forecasts and improve their accuracy, the framework integrates satellite-based Earth observations (EOs)—specifically Sentinel-1-derived flood probability maps from the Global Flood Monitoring service—via a particle filter-based data assimilation (DA) process. As such, the simulations with more coherence with the observed Sentinel-1-derived flood probability maps are prioritized. This results in a Digital Twin capable of delivering daily flood depth forecasts, at detailed spatial resolution, up to 30 days ahead, with reduced prediction uncertainty. Using the 2021 flood event, we evaluate the performance of the Digital Twin in assimilating EO data to refine hydraulic model simulations and issue accurate flood forecasts. Although certain challenges persist—particularly the difficulty in quantifying the error structure of GloFAS discharge forecasts—the proposed approach demonstrates clear improvements in forecast accuracy compared to open-loop simulations. As a result, the approach reduces water level prediction errors by an average of 15–33% and increases the Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency of discharge predictions by approximately 15–36%. Future work will aim to refine the flood hazard datacube and advance the characterization and modeling of uncertainties associated with both GloFAS streamflow forecasts and Sentinel-1-derived flood maps, thereby further enhancing the system’s predictive capability. Full article

Climate change exerts a pronounced influence on streamflow regimes by altering precipitation characteristics and potential evapotranspiration, thereby affecting global water availability and hydrological functioning. This study investigates the hydrological behavior of the Upper Indus River Basin (UIRB), a strategically important transboundary mountainous watershed, under a range of future climate scenarios. An integrated modeling approach combining process-based simulation and data-driven techniques is employed to generate new insights relevant to the advancement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network were calibrated and validated using daily streamflow observations spanning 1995–2014. During the calibration phase, SWAT yielded an R² of 0.71, a Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.59, and a PBIAS of 20.3%. In comparison, the LSTM model demonstrated improved predictive performance, achieving an R² of 0.72, an NSE of 0.71, and a PBIAS of −1.85%. Future discharge simulations were derived from bias-corrected climate projections obtained from 11 General Circulation Models under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios for four future time slices (2015–2035, 2036–2055, 2056–2075, and 2076–2099), using 1995–2014 as the reference period. Under the high-emission SSP585 pathway, basin-wide precipitation is projected to increase by 14.7% by the late century, accompanied by substantial rises in maximum and minimum temperatures of 17.9% and 36.25%, respectively. SWAT simulations indicate streamflow increases of 7.1–9.9% under SSP245 and 10.1–11.7% under SSP585, whereas the LSTM model projects more pronounced increases of 17–25.6%. The outcomes of this research contribute significantly to multiple SDGs, with quantified impacts on SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation, 35%), SDG 13 (Climate Action, 30%), SDG 2 (Zero Hunger, 15%), SDG 15 (Life on Land, 12%), and SDGs 8 and 9 (Economic Growth and Infrastructure, 8%). The proposed integrated modeling framework supports enhanced water security through optimized resource planning, reinforces climate resilience by strengthening adaptive capacity, promotes agricultural sustainability in irrigation-reliant regions, safeguards fragile mountain ecosystems under accelerating glacier retreat, informs the development of climate-resilient agricultural sustainability in irrigation-reliant regions, and informs the development of climate-resilient infrastructure. Collectively, these findings highlight the urgent necessity for adaptive water management policies to address climate-induced hydrological uncertainty in stressed transboundary river basins and offer a transferable framework for achieving water-related SDGs in climate-sensitive regions worldwide. Full article

Flood events driven by climate variability and change pose significant risks for socio-economic activities in the Awash Basin, necessitating advanced forecasting tools. This study benchmarks five deep learning (DL) architectures, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), Bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM), and a Hybrid CNN–LSTM, for daily discharge forecasting for the Hombole catchment in the Upper Awash Basin (UAB) using 40 years of hydrometeorological observations (1981–2020). Rainfall, lagged discharge, and seasonal indicators were used as predictors. Model performance was evaluated against two baseline approaches, a conceptual HBV rainfall–runoff model as well as a climatology, using standard and hydrological metrics. Of the two baselines (climatology and HBV), the climatology showed limited skill with large bias and negative NSE, whereas the HBV model achieved moderate skill (NSE = 0.64 and KGE = 0.82). In contrast, all DL models substantially improved predictive performance, achieving test NSE values above 0.83 and low overall bias. Among them, the Hybrid CNN–LSTM provided the most balanced performance, combining local temporal feature extraction with long-term memory and yielding stable efficiency (NSE ≈ 0.84, KGE ≈ 0.90, and PBIAS ≈ −2%) across flow regimes. The LSTM and GRU models performed comparably, offering strong temporal learning and robust daily predictions, while BiLSTM improved flood timing through bidirectional sequence modeling. The CNN captured short-term variability effectively but showed weaker representation of extreme peaks. Analysis of peak-flow metrics revealed systematic underestimation of extreme discharge magnitudes across all models. However, a post-processing flow-regime classification based on discharge quantiles demonstrated high extreme-event detection skill, with deep learning models exceeding 89% accuracy in identifying extreme-flow occurrences on the test set. These findings indicate that, while magnitude errors remain for rare floods, DL models reliably discriminate flood regimes relevant for early warning. Overall, the results show that deep learning models provide clear improvements over climatology and conceptual baselines for daily streamflow forecasting in the UAB, while highlighting remaining challenges in peak-flow magnitude prediction. The study indicates promising results for the integration of deep learning methods into flood early-warning workflows; however, these results could be further improved by adopting a probabilistic forecasting framework that accounts for model uncertainty. Full article