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Hydrological Hazards: Monitoring, Forecasting and Risk Assessment

A special issue of Water (ISSN 2073-4441). This special issue belongs to the section "Hydrology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (28 February 2026) | Viewed by 7465

Special Issue Editors


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Guest Editor
1. Department of Hydroinformatics and Socio-Technical Innovation, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, 2611 AX Delft, The Netherlands
2. Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, 2628 CN Delft, The Netherlands
Interests: computational hydraulics; physically based modelling; floods; river dynamics; decision support systems; earth observation

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Guest Editor
Department of Terrestrial Measurements and Cadastre, Faculty of Hydrotechnical Engineering, Geodesy and Environmental Engineering, Gheorghe Asachi Technical University of Iaşi, 700050 Iași, Romania
Interests: photogrammetric 3D reconstruction and classification from terrestrial, aerial, and satellite imagery; point cloud processing, filtering, and classification; sensor calibration; accuracy analysis; improvement methods and applications of digital terrain and surface models
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Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

In the context of climate change adaptation, disaster risk reduction, and sustainable water resource management, the monitoring of hydrological hazards represents a globally critical issue, as it enables the implementation of early warning systems, informs decision-making processes, and supports the development of effective mitigation strategies to protect communities and ecosystems. Especially associated with climate variability and global climate change, hydrological hazards (e.g., droughts, flooding) are defined as extreme events related to the occurrence, movement, and distribution of water. Given the significant impacts of hydrological hazards on societies and economies, it is extremely important to adopt innovative approaches, techniques, and methods for the prediction, prevention, and mitigation of hydrological extremes.

In this context, this Special Issue focuses on recent technological advancements and scientific insights aimed at improving our understanding of hydrological hazards and our capacity to manage these extreme phenomena, including the following topics:

  • Hydroinformatics, cutting-edge technologies in hydrological and hydraulics data analysis, and flood and/or drought analysis;
  • Methodologies for predicting and preventing extreme hydrological events;
  • Early warning and forecasting systems;
  • Comprehensive risk management strategies;
  • Advanced modelling approaches for hydrological and hydrodynamic simulations and predictions;
  • Sustainable water resources management;
  • Hydrological monitoring systems;
  • Innovative remote sensing and GIS analysis for hydrological hazards;
  • Effects of climate change and land-use/land-cover changes.

Original research articles; analytical, conceptual, and experimental studies; and state-of-the-art contributions focusing on monitoring, forecasting, and methodologies for predicting and preventing extreme hydrological events and risk assessment are welcome.

Dr. Ioana Popescu
Dr. Ana Maria Loghin
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

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Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Water is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2600 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • hydrological hazards
  • flood forecasting
  • risk management
  • modelling
  • drought assessment
  • water resources
  • hydrological monitoring
  • precipitation
  • remote sensing and GIS analysis
  • climate change
  • geomorphology dynamics
  • hydroinformatics

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Published Papers (5 papers)

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Research

30 pages, 5538 KB  
Article
Satellite- and Ground-Soil-Moisture Synchronization and Rainfall Index Linkage for Developing Early-Warning Thresholds for Flash Floods in Korean Dam Basins
by Jaebeom Lee and Jeong-Seok Yang
Water 2026, 18(8), 909; https://doi.org/10.3390/w18080909 - 10 Apr 2026
Viewed by 316
Abstract
Intensifying hydroclimatic extremes have heightened the need for basin-scale indicators of antecedent wetness that are relevant to flood responses. However, ground-based soil-moisture observations are spatially sparse, and satellite products frequently exhibit temporal gaps. To address this limitation, this study integrated satellite- and ground-soil-moisture [...] Read more.
Intensifying hydroclimatic extremes have heightened the need for basin-scale indicators of antecedent wetness that are relevant to flood responses. However, ground-based soil-moisture observations are spatially sparse, and satellite products frequently exhibit temporal gaps. To address this limitation, this study integrated satellite- and ground-soil-moisture observations, hydro-meteorological variables, and observed streamflow data from 2018 to 2024 across 26 standard basins (SBs) within three dam basin regions in South Korea: the Nam River Dam (NGD) and the upstream and downstream regions of the Seomjin River Dam (SJD). Using this integrated dataset, we quantified the relationships among precipitation, basin wetness, and rapid discharge increases, subsequently deriving composite thresholds for flood early warnings. For each SB, we trained a Random Forest regression model using satellite-soil-moisture and basin-representative hydro-meteorological inputs—including 1-day accumulated precipitation (P_1d), 7-day accumulated precipitation (P_7d), the antecedent precipitation index (API), and related meteorological variables—to estimate a continuous, daily basin-representative soil-moisture series (SM_RF). Validation results indicated that the coefficient of determination (R2) ranged from 0.6 to 0.7 for most SBs. Extreme event days were consistently associated with elevated values of SM_RF, P_1d, P_7d, and API, demonstrating that antecedent wetness significantly influences the likelihood of rapid discharge events. Finally, composite threshold scanning yielded candidate rules characterized by high precision, moderate hit rates, and low false-alarm rates, confirming the efficacy of the proposed framework for developing flash-flood early-warning thresholds in South Korean dam basins. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological Hazards: Monitoring, Forecasting and Risk Assessment)
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17 pages, 13067 KB  
Article
Hydrological Dynamics of Large Tropical Savanna Wetland Through Sentinel-1 SAR Imagery: Pantanal Ramsar Site Case Study
by Edelin Jean Milien, Pierre Girard and Cátia Nunes da Cunha
Water 2026, 18(7), 778; https://doi.org/10.3390/w18070778 - 25 Mar 2026
Viewed by 985
Abstract
Seasonal tropical wetlands such as the Brazilian Pantanal are increasingly threatened by climate variability and extreme hydrological events, creating a need for robust monitoring tools that capture flood dynamics at high spatial and temporal resolution. This study used Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) [...] Read more.
Seasonal tropical wetlands such as the Brazilian Pantanal are increasingly threatened by climate variability and extreme hydrological events, creating a need for robust monitoring tools that capture flood dynamics at high spatial and temporal resolution. This study used Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery to map and monitor flooding in the northern Pantanal, a Ramsar site renowned for its wildlife, between 2017 and 2020. Ground Range Detected (GRD) VV-polarized scenes were preprocessed using radiometric terrain normalization and speckle filtering (Lee filter, 5 × 5 window) to improve the separability of water and non-water surfaces. Flooded areas were initially extracted with Otsu’s histogram thresholding and validated using high-resolution optical imagery (PlanetScope and Landsat-8). A supervised Random Forest classifier then refined land-cover discrimination into three classes (open water/flood, open land/vegetation, and others), achieving an overall accuracy of 97.70% on the independent testing dataset (n = 6622), while temporal consistency was supported by Cuiabá River hydrological data. The results revealed strong interannual variability in flood extent, with inundation covering 34.7% of the reserve in March 2017 compared with 0.75% in March 2020 and reaching a peak of 79.9% in April 2017. Overall, Sentinel-1 SAR effectively delineated open water and flood-affected surfaces under persistent cloud cover, demonstrating its value for complementing existing products such as MapBiomas, strengthening wetland management, and supporting scalable flood monitoring in other tropical flood-prone Ramsar sites. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological Hazards: Monitoring, Forecasting and Risk Assessment)
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20 pages, 6149 KB  
Article
Application of Incomplete Topography Information and Public Data for Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment in Thailand: Case Study of Khlong Wat
by Supanon Kaiwong, Tomasz Dysarz and Joanna Wicher-Dysarz
Water 2026, 18(6), 743; https://doi.org/10.3390/w18060743 - 22 Mar 2026
Viewed by 520
Abstract
Flood hazard mapping remains challenging in regions with limited hydrological and topographic data, despite increasing flood risk driven by climate change and land-use dynamics. This study aims to demonstrate that preliminary flood inundation maps can be developed under data-scarce conditions by integrating limited [...] Read more.
Flood hazard mapping remains challenging in regions with limited hydrological and topographic data, despite increasing flood risk driven by climate change and land-use dynamics. This study aims to demonstrate that preliminary flood inundation maps can be developed under data-scarce conditions by integrating limited field observations with publicly available datasets and simplified hydrodynamic modeling. The Khlong Wat watershed in southern Thailand, where flood hazard maps had not previously existed despite recurrent flood events, was used as a case study. Flood simulations were conducted using the HEC-RAS model with a simplified terrain representation to approximate river bathymetry, acknowledging uncertainties in channel geometry. Hydrodynamic results show a systematic increase in flood extent and depth with increasing flood recurrence intervals, with inundated areas expanding from 1.43 km2 for a 10-year flood to 4.02 km2 and 5.97 km2 for 100- and 500-year events, respectively. Agricultural land is consistently the most affected category, accounting for more than two-thirds of the flooded area across all scenarios, with rubber plantations being the dominant land use. Urban exposure increases with flood magnitude, although most buildings remain affected by shallow inundation below 0.5 m. The results confirm that meaningful flood hazard assessments can be achieved in data-limited regions and provide a transferable framework to support flood risk management and spatial planning in similar environments. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological Hazards: Monitoring, Forecasting and Risk Assessment)
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19 pages, 4674 KB  
Article
Comparative Analysis of Rainfall-Based and Discharge-Based Early Warning Methods for Flash Floods
by Yanhong Dou, Junyao Wen, Xiangning Liu, Ronghua Liu and Jichao Sun
Water 2026, 18(1), 64; https://doi.org/10.3390/w18010064 - 25 Dec 2025
Viewed by 756
Abstract
Against the backdrop of increasingly evident climate change and frequent extreme weather events, flash floods have emerged as a major challenge for flood disaster prevention and mitigation in China. Flash flood early warning systems are crucial means to address this challenge, primarily comprising [...] Read more.
Against the backdrop of increasingly evident climate change and frequent extreme weather events, flash floods have emerged as a major challenge for flood disaster prevention and mitigation in China. Flash flood early warning systems are crucial means to address this challenge, primarily comprising rainfall-based warnings (RW) and discharge-based warnings (DW). To support precise flash flood warnings, this study compares the effectiveness of RW and DW and summarizes their applicable scenarios through both case study analysis and model simulations. The results demonstrate that DW outperforms RW under the following scenarios: ① During persistent moderate-intensity rainfall events when antecedent soil moisture is moderate to high, RW is prone to missed or delayed warnings. ② When rainfall exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity, RW tends to produce false alarms. Conversely, RW outperforms DW in the following scenarios: ① For localized short-duration heavy rainfall events, DW is prone to missed or delayed warnings. ② In basins where numerous small- and medium-sized reservoirs exist upstream without operational data, DW is prone to false alarms. ③ When sparse or unevenly distributed rain gauges result in poor representativeness of areal rainfall, DW is prone to missed warnings. To enhance flash flood disaster management, future warning systems should integrate both RW and DW approaches to deliver more timely, reliable, and scientifically grounded warning information for local authorities. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological Hazards: Monitoring, Forecasting and Risk Assessment)
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31 pages, 6252 KB  
Article
Flood Risk Prediction and Management by Integrating GIS and HEC-RAS 2D Hydraulic Modelling: A Case Study of Ungheni, Iasi County, Romania
by Loredana Mariana Crenganis, Claudiu Ionuț Pricop, Maximilian Diac, Ana-Maria Olteanu-Raimond and Ana-Maria Loghin
Water 2025, 17(20), 2959; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17202959 - 14 Oct 2025
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 4209
Abstract
Floods are among the most frequent and destructive natural hazards worldwide, with increasingly severe socioeconomic consequences due to rapid urbanization, land use changes, and climate variability. While the combination of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) with models such as HEC-RAS has been extensively explored [...] Read more.
Floods are among the most frequent and destructive natural hazards worldwide, with increasingly severe socioeconomic consequences due to rapid urbanization, land use changes, and climate variability. While the combination of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) with models such as HEC-RAS has been extensively explored for flood risk management, many existing studies remain limited to one-dimensional (1D) models or use coarse-resolution terrain data, often underestimating flood risk and failing to produce critical multivariate flood characteristics in densely built urban areas. This study applies a two-dimensional (2D) hydraulic modeling framework in HEC-RAS combined with GIS-based spatial analysis, using a high-resolution (1 × 1 m) LiDAR-derived Digital Terrain Model (DTM) and a hybrid mesh refined between 2 × 2 m and 8 × 8 m, with the main contributions represented by the specific application context and methodological choices. A key methodological aspect is the direct integration of synthetic hydrographs with defined exceedance probabilities (10%, 1%, and 0.1%) into the 2D model, thereby reducing the need for extensive hydrological simulations and defining a data-driven approach for resource-constrained environments. The primary novelty is the application of this high-resolution urban modeling framework to a Romanian urban–peri-urban setting, where detailed hydrological observations are scarce. Unlike previous studies in Romania, this approach applies detailed channel and floodplain discretization at high spatial resolution, explicitly incorporating anthropogenic features like buildings and detailed land use roughness for the accurate representation of local hydraulic dynamics. The resulting outputs (inundation extents, depths, and velocities) support risk assessment and spatial planning in the Ungheni locality (Iași County, Romania), providing a practical, transferable workflow adapted to data-scarce regions. Scenario results quantify vulnerability: for the 0.1% exceedance probability scenario (with a calibration accuracy of ±15–30 min deviation for peak flow timing), the flood risk may affect 882 buildings, 42 land parcels, and 13.5 km of infrastructure. This framework contributes to evidence-based decision-making for climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies, improving urban resilience. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydrological Hazards: Monitoring, Forecasting and Risk Assessment)
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