Search Results (1,013)

Earthquakes, as one of the most destructive natural disasters, often cause significant casualties and severe economic losses. Accurate prediction of earthquake fatalities is of great importance for pre-disaster prevention and mitigation planning, as well as post-disaster emergency response deployment. To address the challenges of small sample sizes, high dimensionality, and strong nonlinearity in earthquake fatality prediction, this paper proposes an integrated modeling approach (PCA-IWOA-XGBoost) combining Principal Component Analysis (PCA), the Improved Whale Optimization Algorithm (IWOA), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). The method first employs PCA to reduce the dimensionality of the influencing factor data, eliminating redundant information and improving modeling efficiency. Subsequently, the IWOA is used to intelligently optimize key hyperparameters of the XGBoost model, enhancing the prediction accuracy and stability. Using 42 major earthquake events in China from 1970 to 2025 as a case study, covering regions including the west (e.g., Tonghai in Yunnan, Wenchuan, Jiuzhaigou), central (e.g., Lushan in Sichuan, Ya’an), east (e.g., Tangshan, Yingkou), north (e.g., Baotou in Inner Mongolia, Helinger), northwest (e.g., Jiashi in Xinjiang, Wushi, Yongdeng in Gansu), and southwest (e.g., Lancang in Yunnan, Lijiang, Ludian), the empirical results showed that the PCA-IWOA-XGBoost model achieved an average test set accuracy of 97.0%, a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.996, a root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) reduced to 4.410 and 3.430, respectively, and a residual prediction deviation (RPD) of 21.090. These results significantly outperformed the baseline XGBoost, PCA-XGBoost, and IWOA-XGBoost models, providing improved technical support for earthquake disaster risk assessment and emergency response. Full article

Effective earthquake early warning (EEW) is essential for disaster prevention in the built environment, enabling a rapid structural response, system shutdown, and occupant evacuation to mitigate damage and casualties. However, most current EEW systems lack rigorous reliability analyses of their predictive outcomes, limiting their effectiveness in real-world scenarios—especially for on-site warnings, where data are limited and time is critical. To address these challenges, we propose a Bayesian neural network (BNN) framework based on Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD). By performing Bayesian inference, we estimate the posterior distribution of the parameters, thus outputting a reliability analysis of the prediction results. In addition, we incorporate a continual learning mechanism based on elastic weight consolidation, allowing the system to adapt quickly without full retraining. Our experiments demonstrate that our SVGD-BNN model significantly outperforms traditional peak displacement (Pd)-based approaches. In a 3 s time window, the Pearson correlation coefficient R increases by 9.2% and the residual standard deviation $SD$ decreases by 24.4% compared to a variational inference (VI)-based BNN. Furthermore, the prediction variance generated by the model can effectively reflect the uncertainty of the prediction results. The continual learning strategy reduces the training time by 133–194 s, enhancing the system’s responsiveness. These features make the proposed framework a promising tool for real-time, reliable, and adaptive EEW—supporting disaster-resilient building design and operation. Full article

China is one of the countries severely affected by earthquakes, making precise and timely identification of earthquake precursors essential for reducing casualties and property damage. A novel method is proposed that combines a rock acoustic emission (AE) detection technique with deep learning methods to facilitate real-time monitoring and advance earthquake precursor detection. The AE equipment and seismometers were installed in a granite tunnel 150 m deep in the mountains of eastern Guangdong, China, allowing for the collection of experimental data on the correlation between rock AE and seismic activity. The deep learning model uses features from rock AE time series, including AE events, rate, frequency, and amplitude, as inputs, and estimates the likelihood of seismic events as the output. Precursor features are extracted to create the AE and seismic dataset, and three deep learning models are trained using neural networks, with validation and testing. The results show that after 1000 training cycles, the deep learning model achieves an accuracy of 98.7% on the validation set. On the test set, it reaches a recognition accuracy of 97.6%, with a recall rate of 99.6% and an F₁ score of 0.975. Additionally, it successfully identified the two biggest seismic events during the monitoring period, confirming its effectiveness in practical applications. Compared to traditional analysis methods, the deep learning model can automatically process and analyse recorded massive AE data, enabling real-time monitoring of seismic events and timely earthquake warning in the future. This study serves as a valuable reference for earthquake disaster prevention and intelligent early warning. Full article

Hemorrhage is the leading cause of preventable death in trauma care, requiring rapid and accurate detection to guide effective interventions. Hemorrhagic shock can be masked by underlying compensatory mechanisms, which may lead to delayed decision-making that can compromise casualty care. In this proof-of-concept study, we aimed to develop and evaluate machine learning models to predict Percent Estimated Blood Loss from a photoplethysmography waveform, offering non-invasive, field deployable solutions. Different model types were tuned and optimized using data captured during a hemorrhage and resuscitation swine study. Through this optimization process, we evaluated different time-lengths of prediction windows, machine learning model architectures, and data normalization approaches. Models were successful at predicting Percent Estimated Blood Loss in blind swine subjects with coefficient of determination values exceeding 0.8. This provides evidence that Percent Estimated Blood Loss can be accurately derived from non-invasive signals, improving its utility for trauma care and casualty triage in the pre-hospital and emergency medicine environment. Full article

In 1961, Los Angeles experienced the disastrous Bel Air fire, which swept through an affluent neighborhood situated in a hilly, WUI (wildland–urban interface) location. In January 2025, the city was devastated again by a nearly-simultaneous series of wildfires, the most severe of which took place close to the 1961 fire location. Disastrous WUI fires are, unfortunately, an anticipatable occurrence in many U.S. cities. A number of issues identified earlier remained the same. Some were largely solved, while other new ones have emerged. The paper examines the Palisades Fire of January, 2025 in this context. In the intervening decades, the population of the city grew substantially. But firefighting resources did not keep pace. Very likely, the single-most-important factor in causing the 2025 disasters is that the Los Angeles Fire Department operational vehicle count shrank to 1/5 of what it was in 1961 (per capita). This is likely why critical delays were experienced in the initial attack on the Palisades Fire, leading to a runaway conflagration. Two other crucial issues were the management of vegetation and the adequacy of water supplies. On both these issues, the Palisades Fire revealed serious problems. A problem which arose after 1961 involves the unintended consequences of environmental legislation. Communities will continue to be devastated by wildfires unless adequate vegetation management is accomplished. Yet, environmental regulations are focused on maintaining the status quo, often making vegetation management difficult or ineffective. House survival during a wildfire is strongly affected by whether good vegetation management practices and good building practices (“ignition-resistant” construction features) have been implemented. The latter have not been mandatory for housing built prior to 2008, and the vast majority of houses in the area predated such building code requirements. California has also suffered from a highly counterproductive stance on insurance regulation. This has resulted in some residents not having property insurance, due to the inhospitable operating conditions for insurance firms in the state. Because of the historical precedent, the details in this paper focus on the Palisades Fire; however, many of the lessons learned apply to managing fires in all WUI areas. Policy recommendations are offered, which could help to reduce the potential for future conflagrations. Full article

The manuscript examines the cause-and-effect relationships of fires in the Republic of Serbia over a fifteen-year period, primarily from the aspect of human safety. For this purpose, numerical variables describing the number of injuries and deaths in fires were introduced, on which various analysis and modeling techniques were implemented, which can be viewed in the context of data mining (DM). First, for both observed variables, stochastic modeling of their temporal dynamics was analyzed, and subsequently, cluster analysis of the values of these variables was performed using two different methods. Finally, by interpreting these variables as outputs (objectives) for the classification problem, several decision trees were formed that describe the influence and relationship of different fire causes on situations in which injuries or human casualties occur or not. In that way, several different types of fires have been identified, including rare but deadly incidents that require urgent preventive measures. Key risk factors such as fire cause, location, season, etc., have been found to significantly influence human casualties. These findings provide practical insights for improving fire protection policies and emergency response. Through such a comprehensive analysis, it is believed that some important results have been obtained that precisely describe the specific relationships between the causes and consequences of fires occurring in the Republic of Serbia. Full article

Wildlife–vehicle collisions (WVCs) remain a significant cause of animal mortality worldwide, particularly in regions experiencing rapid road network expansion. During the COVID-19 pandemic, a number of studies reported decreased WVC rates, attributing this trend to reduced traffic volumes. However, the validity of the simplified assumption that “fewer vehicles means fewer collisions” remains underexplored from a mechanistic perspective. This study aims to reevaluate that assumption using two simulation-based models that incorporate both the physics of vehicle movement and behavioral parameters of road-crossing animals. Employing an inverse modeling approach with quasi-realistic traffic scenarios, we quantify how vehicle speed, spacing, and animal hesitation affect collision likelihood. The results indicate that approximately 10% of modeled cases contradict the prevailing assumption, with collision risk peaking at intermediate traffic densities. These findings challenge common interpretations of WVC dynamics and underscore the need for more refined, behaviorally informed mitigation strategies. We suggest that integrating such approaches into road planning and conservation policy—particularly under the European Union’s ‘Vision Zero’ framework—could help reduce wildlife mortality more effectively in future scenarios, including potential pandemics or mobility disruptions. Full article

As traffic accidents caused by black ice during the winter continue to occur, there is a growing need for technologies that enable drivers to recognize and respond to black ice in advance. In particular, to reduce major accidents and associated casualties, it is essential to provide timely information and prevent incidents through accurate prediction. This paper proposes an artificial intelligence (AI) technology capable of detecting and predicting black ice using multimodal data. The study aims to enable a preemptive response in the field of digital disaster safety and discusses the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed approach in real-world road environments. Full article

(1) Background: The number of casualties due to car accidents in Europe is decreasing. However, there are still very large differences in the levels of road safety between countries, even within the European Union. Therefore, it is vital to conduct reliable international analyses to compare the effectiveness of actions taken to prevent road accidents. Information on the number of accidents, injuries, and fatalities can be found in various databases (e.g., Eurostat or OECD). In this paper, it is clearly shown that data on car accidents and the resulting injuries are not comparable between different countries, and any conclusions drawn using these data as their basis will be erroneous. (2) Methods: The indicators of the number of car accidents, injured people, and fatalities in relation to the number of inhabitants were determined, then their distribution and mutual correlations were examined for a group of selected European countries. (3) Results: There is no correlation between the indicators of the number of car accidents and injuries and the indicator of fatalities. An assessment of road safety based on these indicators would result in inconsistent and ambiguous conclusions. (4) Conclusions: It has been empirically shown that data on the number of car accidents and injured people from different countries are not comparable. These conclusions were verified by providing examples of the definitions of an injured person used in different countries. This paper clearly indicates that any international comparisons can only be made based on data regarding the number of road accident fatalities. Full article

Rockfalls, among the most common natural disasters, pose risks such as traffic congestion, casualties, and substantial property damage. Guizhou Province, with China’s fourth-longest highway network, features mountainous terrain prone to frequent rockfall incidents annually. Consequently, assessing highway rockfall risks in Guizhou Province is crucial for safeguarding the lives and travel of residents. This study evaluates highway rockfall risk through three key components: susceptibility, hazard, and vulnerability. Susceptibility was assessed using information content and logistic regression methods, considering factors such as elevation, slope, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), aspect, distance from fault, relief amplitude, lithology, and rock weathering index (RWI). Hazard assessment utilized a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP), focusing on average annual rainfall and daily maximum rainfall. Socioeconomic factors, including GDP, population density, and land use type, were incorporated to gauge vulnerability. Integration of these assessments via a risk matrix yielded comprehensive highway rockfall risk profiles. Results indicate a predominantly high risk across Guizhou Province, with high-risk zones covering 41.19% of the area. Spatially, the western regions exhibit higher risk levels compared to eastern areas. Notably, the Bijie region features over 70% of its highway mileage categorized as high risk or above. Logistic regression identified distance from fault lines as the most negatively correlated factor affecting highway rockfall susceptibility, whereas elevation gradient demonstrated a minimal influence. This research provides valuable insights for decision-makers in formulating highway rockfall prevention and control strategies. Full article

Background: Mass casualty events in conflict-affected regions can lead to the displacement of civilians and are often accompanied by substantial psychological and emotional impact on those affected. While physical activity is known to support mental health, the ways in which it relates to anxiety, resilience, and well-being in conflict-affected populations are still being explored. Objective: This study examined the associations among physical activity, anxiety, resilience, and well-being in evacuees from a conflict-affected zone. We hypothesized that higher levels of intense physical activity would be associated with higher levels of resilience and well-being and lower levels of anxiety. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, 107 evacuees completed an online survey in December 2023. The questionnaire assessed the frequency and intensity of physical activity, generalized anxiety, resilience, and well-being. Participants were categorized by weekly total physical activity levels. Data was analyzed using ANOVA, Pearson correlations, and multiple linear regression. Results: Evacuees engaging in more than three hours of vigorous-intensity physical activity exhibited significantly higher resilience and better well-being compared to those with lower activity levels. Although not statistically significant, the data suggested a possible pattern of lower anxiety among evacuees engaging in higher levels of physical activity. Regression analysis identified higher resilience and lower anxiety as significant predictors of greater mental well-being. Additionally, residing in a community exposed to a higher number of traumatic events was associated with reduced well-being. The overall model explained a substantial portion of the variance in mental well-being. Conclusions: Physical activity, especially intense exercise, is associated with improved mental health and resilience among evacuees, supporting its inclusion in interventions for trauma-affected populations. Full article

Chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) incidents pose significant challenges requiring swift, coordinated responses to safeguard public health. This is especially the case in densely populated urban areas, where the public is not only at risk but can also be of assistance. Public cooperation is critical to the success of mass decontamination efforts, yet prior research has primarily focused on technical and procedural aspects, neglecting the psychological and social factors driving casualty behaviour. This paper addresses this gap through a narrative literature review, chosen for its flexibility in synthesising fragmented and interdisciplinary research across psychology, sociology, and emergency management. The review identified two primary pathways influencing casualty decision making: rational and affective. Rational pathways rely on deliberate decisions supported by clear communication and trust in responders’ competence, while affective pathways are shaped by emotional responses like fear and anxiety, exacerbated by uncertainty. Trust emerged as a critical factor, with effective —i.e., transparent, empathetic, and culturally sensitive— communication being proven to enhance public cooperation. Cultural and societal norms further shape individual and group responses during emergencies. This paper demonstrates the value of narrative reviews in addressing a complex, multifaceted topic such as casualty behaviour, enabling the integration of diverse insights. By emphasising behavioural, psychological, and social dimensions, the results of this paper offer actionable strategies for emergency responders to enhance public cooperation and improve outcomes during CBRN incidents. Full article

Australian scuba fatalities over 50 years were examined to determine temporal changes over two consecutive periods, 1972–1999 and 2000–2021. The Australasian Diving Safety Foundation database and National Coronial Information System were searched to identify scuba deaths from 1972 to 2021. Historical data, police and witness reports, and autopsies were recorded and comparisons made between the two periods. Of 430 total deaths, 236 occurred during 1972–1999 and 194 during 2000–2021, with average annual fatalities of 8.4 and 8.8, respectively. The proportion of males reduced (83% to 76%) and median ages rose (33 to 47 years) with a large rise in the percentage of casualties among people aged 45 years or older (24% to 57%). There were increases in certified divers (64% to 81%) and in the proportion of divers who were with a buddy at the time of their incident (17% to 27%), as well as a decrease in out-of-gas incidents (30% to 25%). A reduction in primary drowning (47% to 36%) was accompanied by more than a doubling of cardiac-related disabling conditions (12% to 26%). The substantial increase in casualties’ ages and of the proportions of casualties aged 45 or more and of females between the periods indicate the inclusion of a broader cohort of participants and ageing of longtime divers. The reduction in primary drowning was likely due to increased training and improvements in equipment, particularly BCDs and pressure gauges. The rise in cardiac-related deaths was due to an older and more obese cohort. Improved health education and surveillance and improved dive planning are essential to reduce such deaths. Full article

Under the background of global climate change, shallow landslide clusters induced by extreme rainfall are occurring with increasing frequency, causing severe casualties and economic losses. To address this challenge, this study proposes an integrated approach to support both emergency response and long-term mitigation for rainfall-induced shallow landslides. The workflow includes (1) rapid landslide detection based on time-series image fusion and threshold segmentation on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform; (2) numerical simulation of landslide runout using the R.avaflow model; (3) landslide susceptibility assessment based on event-driven inventories and machine learning; and (4) delineation of high-risk slopes by integrating simulation outputs, susceptibility results, and exposed elements. Applied to Qugaona Township in Zhouqu County, Bailong River Basin, the framework identified 747 landslides. The R.avaflow simulations captured the spatial extent and depositional features of landslides, assisting post-disaster operations. The Gradient Boosting-based susceptibility model achieved an accuracy of 0.870, with 8.0% of the area classified as highly susceptible. In Cangan Village, high-risk slopes were delineated, with 31.08%, 17.85%, and 22.42% of slopes potentially affecting buildings, farmland, and roads, respectively. The study recommends engineering interventions for these areas. Compared with traditional methods, this approach demonstrates greater applicability and provides a more comprehensive basis for managing rainfall-induced landslide hazards. Full article

Ground subsidence is a significant geotechnical hazard in urban areas, leading to property damage, casualties, and broader societal issues. This study investigates the mechanisms of cavity formation and ground subsidence through laboratory model tests using Korean standard sand and marine clay under controlled conditions. A transparent soil box apparatus was fabricated to simulate sewer pipe damage, with model grounds prepared at various relative densities, groundwater levels, and fines contents. The progression of cavity formation and surface collapse was observed and quantitatively analyzed by measuring the time to cavity formation and ground subsidence, as well as the mass of discharged soil. Results indicate that lower relative density accelerates ground subsidence, whereas higher density increases cavity volume due to greater frictional resistance. Notably, as the fines content increased, a tendency was observed for ground subsidence to be increasingly suppressed, suggesting that cohesive clay particles can limit soil loss under seepage conditions. These findings provide valuable insights for selecting backfill materials and managing subsurface conditions to mitigate ground subsidence risks in urban infrastructure. Full article