Search Results (467)

The growing integration of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) into microgrids presents both challenges and opportunities, particularly through vehicle-to-grid (V2G) services. This paper proposes a dynamic horizon optimization (DHO) framework with adaptive pricing for real-time scheduling of PEVs in a renewable-powered microgrid. The system integrates solar and wind energy, V2G capabilities, and time-of-use (ToU) tariffs. The DHO strategy dynamically adjusts control horizons based on forecasted load, generation, and electricity prices, while considering battery health. A PEV-specific pricing scheme couples ToU tariffs with system marginal prices. Case studies on a microgrid with four heterogeneous EV charging stations show that the proposed method reduces peak load by 23.5%, lowers charging cost by 12.6%, and increases average final SoC by 12.5%. Additionally, it achieves a 6.2% reduction in carbon emissions and enables V2G revenue while considering battery longevity. Full article

Coal constitutes China’s most significant resource endowment at present. Utilizing coal resources for hydrogen production represents an early-stage pathway for China’s hydrogen production industry. The analysis of energy quality and carbon emissions in coal gasification-based hydrogen production holds practical significance. This paper integrates the exergy analysis methodology into the traditional LCA framework to evaluate the exergy and carbon emission scales of coal gasification-based hydrogen production in China, considering the technical conditions of CCUS. This paper found that the life cycle exergic efficiency of the whole chain of gasification-based hydrogen production in China is accounted to be 38.8%. By analyzing the causes of exergic loss and energy varieties, it was found that the temperature difference between the reaction of coal gasification and CO conversion unit and the pressure difference due to the compressor driven by the electricity consumption of the compression process in the variable pressure adsorption unit are the main causes of exergic loss. Corresponding countermeasures were suggested. Regarding decarbonization strategies, the CCUS process can reduce CO₂ emissions across the life cycle of coal gasification-based hydrogen production by 48%. This study provides an academic basis for medium-to-long-term forecasting and roadmap design of China’s hydrogen production structure. Full article

An in-depth and comprehensive evaluation of carbon emission efficiency (CEE) is essential for promoting high-quality development and achieving the “dual-carbon” goals. This study applies a super-efficiency slacks-based measure (Super-SBM) model with carbon emissions treated as an undesirable output to measure provincial CEE and the Malmquist–Luenberger (ML) index across 30 provinces and major comprehensive economic zones in China from 2010 to 2023. Efficiency trends for 2024–2025 are projected using a hybrid Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)–Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) approach. Furthermore, CEE patterns are examined at both national and regional levels, and the relationships between CEE and potential drivers are analyzed using Tobit regressions. Combining the regression outcomes with short-term forecasts, this study provides a forward-looking perspective on the evolution of CEE and its associated factors. The results indicate that (1) China’s CEE demonstrates a generally fluctuating upward trajectory, with the southern coastal and eastern coastal regions maintaining the highest efficiency levels, while other regions remain relatively lower. (2) The temporal changes in CEE across economic zones correspond to variations in technical efficiency and technological progress, with the latter contributing more prominently to overall improvement. (3) CEE shows significant associations with multiple factors: population density, economic development, technological advancement, government intervention, and environmental regulation are positively associated with efficiency, whereas urbanization tends to correlate negatively. Based on these findings, policy implications are discussed to promote differentiated pathways for enhancing CEE across China’s regions. Full article

This paper develops a Sustainable Artificial Intelligence-Driven Wind Power Forecasting System (SAI-WPFS) to enhance the integration of renewable energy while minimizing the environmental footprint of deep learning computations. Although deep learning models such as CNN, LSTM, and GRU have achieved high accuracy in wind power forecasting, existing research rarely considers the computational energy cost and associated carbon emissions, creating a gap between predictive performance and sustainability objectives. Moreover, limited studies have addressed the need for a balanced framework that jointly evaluates forecast precision and eco-efficiency in the context of large-scale renewable deployment. Using real-time data from the Dumat Al-Jandal Wind Farm, Saudi Arabia’s first utility-scale wind project, this study evaluates multiple deep learning architectures, including CNN-LSTM-AM and GRU, under a dual assessment framework combining accuracy metrics (MAE, RMSE, R²) and carbon efficiency indicators (CO₂ emissions per computational hour). Results show that the CNN-LSTM-AM model achieves the highest forecasting accuracy (MAE = 29.37, RMSE = 144.99, R² = 0.74), while the GRU model offers the best trade-off between performance and emissions (320 g CO₂/h). These findings demonstrate the feasibility of integrating sustainable AI into wind energy forecasting, aligning technical innovation with Saudi Vision 2030 goals for zero-carbon cities and carbon-efficient energy systems. Full article

Human-sourced emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) into the Earth’s atmosphere have been implicated in contemporary global warming, based mainly on computer modeling. Growing empirical evidence reviewed here supports the alternative hypothesis that global climate change is governed primarily by a natural climate cycle, the Antarctic Oscillation. This powerful pressure-wind-temperature cycle is energized in the Southern Ocean and teleconnects worldwide to cause global multidecadal warm periods like the present, each followed historically by a multidecadal cold period, which now appears imminent. The Antarctic Oscillation is modulated on a thousand-year schedule to create longer climate cycles, including the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age, which are coupled with the rise and fall, respectively, of human civilizations. Future projection of these ancient climate rhythms enables long-term empirical climate forecasting. Although human-sourced CO₂ emissions play little role in climate change, they pose an existential threat to global biodiversity. Past mass extinctions were caused by natural CO₂ surges that acidified the ocean, killed oxygen-producing plankton, and induced global suffocation. Current human-sourced CO₂ emissions are comparable in volume but hundreds of thousands of times faster. Diverse evidence suggests that the consequent ocean acidification is destroying contemporary marine phytoplankton, corals, and calcifying algae. The resulting global oxygen deprivation could smother higher life forms, including people, by 2100 unless net human-induced CO₂ emissions into the atmosphere are ended urgently. Full article

In the context of global efforts toward energy conservation and emission reduction, accurate short-term electric load forecasting plays a crucial role in improving energy efficiency, enabling low-carbon dispatching, and supporting sustainable power system operations. To address the growing demand for accuracy and stability in this domain, this paper proposes a novel prediction model tailored for power systems. The proposed method combines Spearman correlation analysis with modal decomposition techniques to compress redundant features while preserving key information, resulting in more informative and cleaner input representations. In terms of model architecture, this study integrates Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Units (BiGRUs) with dilated convolution. This design improves the model’s capacity to capture long-range dependencies and complex relationships. For parameter optimization, an Improved Beluga Whale Optimization (IBWO) algorithm is introduced, incorporating dynamic population initialization, adaptive Lévy flight mechanisms, and refined convergence procedures to enhance search efficiency and robustness. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that the proposed model achieves excellent forecasting performance (RMSE = 26.1706, MAE = 18.5462, R² = 0.9812), combining high predictive accuracy with strong generalization. These advancements contribute to more efficient energy scheduling and reduced environmental impact, making the model well-suited for intelligent and sustainable load forecasting applications in environmentally conscious power systems. Full article

The growing demand for air connectivity, coupled with the forecasted increase in passengers by 2040, implies an exigency in the aviation sector to adopt sustainable approaches for net zero emission by 2050. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is currently the most promising short-term solution; however, ensuring its overall sustainability depends on reducing the life cycle carbon footprints. A key challenge prevails in hydrogen usage as a reactant for the approved ASTM routes of SAF. The processing, conversion and refinement of feed entailing hydrodeoxygenation (HDO), decarboxylation, hydrogenation, isomerisation and hydrocracking requires substantial hydrogen input. This hydrogen is sourced either in situ or ex situ, with the supply chain encompassing renewables or non-renewables origins. Addressing this hydrogen usage and recognising the emission implications thereof has therefore become a novel research priority. Aside from the preferred adoption of renewable water electrolysis to generate hydrogen, other promising pathways encompass hydrothermal gasification, biomass gasification (with or without carbon capture) and biomethane with steam methane reforming (with or without carbon capture) owing to the lower greenhouse emissions, the convincing status of the technology readiness level and the lower acidification potential. Equally imperative are measures for reducing hydrogen demand in SAF pathways. Strategies involve identifying the appropriate catalyst (monometallic and bimetallic sulphide catalyst), increasing the catalyst life in the deoxygenation process, deploying low-cost iso-propanol (hydrogen donor), developing the aerobic fermentation of sugar to 1,4 dimethyl cyclooctane with the intermediate formation of isoprene and advancing aqueous phase reforming or single-stage hydro processing. Other supportive alternatives include implementing the catalytic and co-pyrolysis of waste oil with solid feedstocks and selecting highly saturated feedstock. Thus, future progress demands coordinated innovation and research endeavours to bolster the seamless integration of the cutting-edge hydrogen production processes with the SAF infrastructure. Rigorous techno-economic and life cycle assessments, alongside technological breakthroughs and biomass characterisation, are indispensable for ensuring scalability and sustainability. Full article

The transition of Türkiye’s energy market toward net-zero emissions by 2053 requires modeling approaches capable of capturing complex interactions and long-term uncertainties. In this study, a long-term agent-based modeling (ABM) framework was developed, integrating econometric demand forecasting with a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and machine learning (ML)-based day-ahead market (DAM) price prediction. Of the ML models tested, CatBoost achieved the highest accuracy, outperforming XGBoost and Random Forest, and supported investment analysis through net present value (NPV) calculations. The framework represents major market actors—including generation units, investors, and the market operator—while also incorporating the impact of Türkiye’s first nuclear power plant (NPP) under construction and the potential introduction of a carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS). All model components were validated against historical data, confirming robust forecasting and market replication performance. Hourly simulations were conducted until 2053 under alternative policy and demand scenarios. The results show that renewable generation expands steadily, led by onshore wind and solar photovoltaic (PV), while nuclear capacity, ETS implementation, and demand assumptions significantly reshape prices, generation mix, and carbon emissions. The nuclear plant lowers market prices, whereas an ETS substantially raises them, with both policies contributing to emission reductions. These scenario results were connected to actionable policy recommendations, outlining how renewable expansion, ETS design, nuclear development, and energy efficiency measures can jointly support Türkiye’s 2053 net-zero target. The proposed framework provides an ex-ante decision-support framework for policymakers, investors, and market participants, with future extensions that can include other energy markets, storage integration, and enriched scenario design. Full article

In response to the climate crisis, Colombia has committed to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 through an energy transition strategy that promotes Non-Conventional Renewable Energy Sources (NCRES) and, increasingly, natural gas. Although natural gas is regarded as a transitional fuel with lower carbon intensity than other fossil fuels, existing reserves could be depleted by 2030 if no new discoveries are made. To assess this risk, a System Dynamics model was developed to project supply and demand under alternative transition pathways. The model integrates: (1) GDP, urban population growth, and adoption of clean energy, (2) the behavior of six major consumption sectors, and (3) the role of gas-fired thermal generation relative to NCRES output and hydroelectric availability, influenced by the El Niño river-flow variability. The novelty and contribution of this study lie in the integration of supply and demand within a unified System Dynamics framework, allowing for a holistic understanding of the Colombian natural gas market. The model explicitly incorporates feedback mechanisms such as urbanization, vehicle replacement, and hydropower variability, which are often overlooked in traditional analyses. Through the evaluation of twelve policy scenarios that combine hydrogen, wind, solar, and new gas reserves, the study provides a comprehensive view of potential energy transition pathways. A comparative analysis with official UPME projections highlights both consistencies and divergences in long-term forecasts. Furthermore, the quantification of demand coverage from 2026 to 2033 reveals that while current reserves can satisfy demand until 2026, the expansion of hydrogen, wind, and solar sources could extend full coverage until 2033; however, ensuring long-term sustainability ultimately depends on the discovery and development of new reserves, such as the Sirius-2 well. Full article

Indoor air quality (IAQ) is a critical determinant of health, comfort, and productivity, and is strongly connected to building energy demand due to the role of ventilation and air treatment in HVAC systems. This review examines recent applications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) for IAQ prediction across residential, educational, commercial, and public environments. Approaches are categorized by predicted parameters, forecasting horizons, facility types, and model architectures. Particular focus is given to pollutants such as CO₂, PM2.5, PM10, VOCs, and formaldehyde. Deep learning methods, especially the LSTM and GRU networks, achieve superior accuracy in short-term forecasting, while hybrid models integrating physical simulations or optimization algorithms enhance robustness and generalizability. Importantly, predictive IAQ frameworks are increasingly applied to support demand-controlled ventilation, adaptive HVAC strategies, and retrofit planning, contributing directly to reduced energy consumption and carbon emissions without compromising indoor environmental quality. Remaining challenges include data heterogeneity, sensor reliability, and limited interpretability of deep models. This review highlights the need for scalable, explainable, and energy-aware IAQ prediction systems that align health-oriented indoor management with energy efficiency and sustainability goals. Such approaches directly contribute to policy priorities, including the EU Green Deal and Fit for 55 package, advancing both occupant well-being and low-carbon smart building operation. Full article

As one of the primary contributors to carbon emissions in China, the transportation sector plays a pivotal role in achieving green and low-carbon development. Considering the spatio-temporal dependency characteristics of transportation carbon emissions driven by economic interactions and population mobility among provinces, this study proposes a predictive framework for transportation carbon emissions based on a spatio-temporal attention mechanism from the perspective of multi-province spatio-temporal synergy. First, the study conducts transportation carbon emission accounting by considering both transportation fuel consumption and electricity usage, followed by feature selection using an enhanced STIRPAT model. Second, it integrates the spatio-temporal attention mechanism with graph convolutional neural networks to construct a multi-province transportation carbon emission collaborative prediction model. Comparative experiments highlight the superior performance of deep learning methods and spatio-temporal correlation modeling in multi-province transportation carbon emission collaborative prediction. Finally, three future development scenarios are designed to analyze the evolution paths of transportation carbon emissions. The results indicate that technological innovation can significantly improve the efficiency of transportation emission reduction. Moreover, given that the eastern region and the central and western regions are at distinct stages of development, it is essential to develop differentiated emission reduction strategies tailored to local conditions to facilitate a green and low-carbon transformation in the transportation sector. Full article

This paper proposes a comprehensive framework for strategic power system decarbonization planning that integrates the William Newman method (diagnosis–options–forecast–decision) with a multi-objective Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model. The approach simultaneously minimizes (i) generation cost, (ii) expected cost of energy not supplied (Value of Lost Load, VoLL), (iii) demand response cost, and (iv) CO₂ emissions, subject to power balance, technical limits, and binary unit commitment decisions. The methodology is validated on the IEEE RTS 24-bus system with increasing demand profiles and representative cost and emission parameters by technology. Three transition pathways are analyzed: baseline scenario (no environmental restrictions), gradual transition (−50% target in 20 years), and accelerated transition (−75% target in 10 years). In the baseline case, the oil- and coal-dominated mix concentrates emissions (≈14 ktCO₂ and ≈12 ktCO₂, respectively). Under gradual transition, progressive substitution with wind and hydro reduces emissions by 15.38%, falling short of the target, showing that renewable expansion alone is insufficient without storage and demand-side management. In the accelerated transition, the model achieves −75% by year 10 while maintaining supply, with a cost–emissions trade-off highly sensitive to the carbon price. Results demonstrate that decarbonization is technically feasible and economically manageable when three enablers are combined: higher renewable penetration, storage capacity, and policy instruments that both accelerate fossil phase-out and valorize demand-side flexibility. The proposed framework is replicable and valuable for outlining realistic, verifiable transition pathways in power system planning. Full article

Optimization dispatch with flexible load participation in new power systems significantly enhances renewable energy accommodation, though the potential of flexible loads remains underexploited. To improve renewable utilization efficiency, promote wind/PV consumption and reduce carbon emissions, this paper establishes a low-carbon economic optimization dispatch model for active distribution networks incorporating flexible loads and tiered carbon trading. First, a hybrid SSA (Sparrow Search Algorithm)–CNN-LSTM model is adopted for accurate renewable generation forecasting. Meanwhile, multi-type flexible loads are categorized into shiftable, transferable and reducible loads based on response characteristics, with tiered carbon trading mechanism introduced to achieve low-carbon operation through price incentives that guide load-side participation while avoiding privacy leakage from direct control. Considering the non-convex nonlinear characteristics of the dispatch model, an improved Beluga Whale Optimization (BWO) algorithm is developed. To address the diminished solution diversity and precision in conventional BWO evolution, Tent chaotic mapping is introduced to resolve initial parameter sensitivity. Finally, modified IEEE-33 bus system simulations demonstrate the method’s validity and feasibility. Full article

With agriculture being the second biggest contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through the excessive use of fertilizers, machinery, and inefficient farming practices, global efforts to reduce emissions have been intensified, opting for smarter, data-driven solutions. However, while machine learning (ML) offers powerful predictive capabilities, its black-box nature presents a challenge for trust and adoption, particularly when integrated with auditable financial technology (FinTech) principles. To address this gap, this work introduces a novel, explanation-focused GHG emission optimization framework for IoT-enabled smart agriculture that is both transparent and prescriptive, distinguishing itself from macro-level land-use solutions by focusing on optimizable management practices while aligning with core FinTech principles and pollutant stock market mechanisms. The framework employs a two-stage statistical methodology that first identifies distinct agricultural emission profiles from macro-level data, and then models these emissions by developing a cluster-oriented principal component regression (PCR) model, which outperforms simpler variants by approximately 35% on average across all clusters. This interpretable model then serves as the core of a FinTech-aligned optimization framework that combines cluster-oriented modeling knowledge with a sequential least squares quadratic programming (SLSQP) algorithm to minimize emission-related costs under a carbon pricing mechanism, showcasing forecasted cost reductions as high as 43.55%. Full article

Against the backdrop of global climate change, accurate prediction of carbon emissions is crucial for formulating effective emission reduction policies. Utilizing data from the China Energy Statistical Yearbook and the Shandong Statistical Yearbook between 2010 and 2022, this study estimates carbon emissions in Shandong Province from 2016 to 2022 using the carbon emission factor method and projects future trends through the fractional-order accumulated grey model FAGM(1,1). The forecast results indicate that both total carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions in Shandong will follow a trajectory characterized by ‘slow increase-peak-steady decline’, while carbon emission intensity is expected to decrease consistently year by year. Based on these projections, this study proposes that Shandong should accelerate the optimization of its energy supply structure to establish a clean and low-carbon energy system, promote green transformation and upgrading of industries to cultivate new economic growth drivers, and enhance policy-market coordination mechanisms to strengthen institutional incentives and constraints. These findings provide a scientific basis for Shandong to achieve its carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals and also offer methodological references for other industrialized provinces facing similar challenges. Full article