Search Results (1,321)

Rainstorm floods constitute one of the major natural hazards threatening the safe and stable operation of power grid facilities. Constructing a rapid and accurate prediction model is of great significance in order to enhance the disaster prevention capacity of the power grid. This study proposes a rapid prediction model for urban rainstorm flood targeting power grid facilities based on deep learning. The model utilizes computational results of high-precision mechanism models as data-driven input and adopts a dual-branch prediction architecture of space and time: the spatial prediction module employs a multi-layer perceptron (MLP), and the temporal prediction module integrates convolutional neural network (CNN), long short-term memory network (LSTM), and attention mechanism (ATT). The constructed water dynamics model of the right bank of Liangshui River in Fengtai District of Beijing has been verified to be reliable in the simulation of the July 2023 (“23·7”) extreme rainstorm event in Beijing (the July 2023 event), which provides high-quality training and validation data for the deep learning-based surrogate model (SM model). Compared with traditional high-precision mechanism models, the SM model shows distinctive advantages: the R² value of the overall inundation water depth prediction of the spatial prediction module reaches 0.9939, and the average absolute error of water depth is 0.013 m; the R² values of temporal water depth processes prediction at all substations made by the temporal prediction module are all higher than 0.92. Only by inputting rainfall data can the water depth at power grid facilities be output within seconds, providing an effective tool for rapid assessment of flood risks to power grid facilities. In a word, the main contribution of this study lies in the proposal of the SM model driven by the high-precision mechanism model. This model, through a dual-branch module in both space and time, has achieved second-level high-precision prediction from rainfall input to water depth output in scenarios where the power grid is at risk of flooding for the first time, providing an expandable method for real-time simulation of complex physical processes. Full article

As Thailand’s financial sector accelerates its digital transformation, cybersecurity has transitioned from a mere technical support function to a strategic imperative that governs operational risk and financial stability. This study empirically examines the efficacy of cyber risk controls and their correlation with perceived organizational readiness. Utilizing a quantitative survey of 53 specialized practitioners (N = 53), we assessed maturity across the six dimensions of the Bank of Thailand’s Cyber Resilience Assessment regulatory framework: Governance, Identification, Protection, Detection, Response, and Third-Party Risk Management. While descriptive statistics indicate high overall maturity ($\overline{\mathrm{x}}$ = 4.19, S.D. = 0.37), multiple regression analysis uncovers a critical “Protection Paradox”. Specifically, the “Protection” dimension exhibits a statistically significant negative impact on readiness (β = −0.432, p = 0.01), suggesting that over-engineered technical controls induce operational friction. In contrast, “Identification” emerged as the primary positive driver of readiness (β = 0.627, p < 0.01), highlighting visibility as a superior strategic lever. Furthermore, a structural disconnect was identified between strategic “Governance” and “Third-Party Risk Management” (r = 0.46), highlighting a “Silo Effect” where board-level policy fails to effectively mitigate supply chain risks. These findings suggest that financial institutions must pivot from volume-based compliance to risk-optimized integration to bridge these strategic and operational gaps. Full article

This paper examines whether information-theoretic complexity measures enhance industry-group return forecasting and portfolio construction within a machine-learning framework. Using daily data for 25 U.S. GICS industry groups spanning more than three decades, we augment gradient-boosted decision tree models with Shannon entropy and fuzzy entropy computed from recent return dynamics. Models are estimated at weekly, monthly, and quarterly horizons using a strictly causal rolling-window design and translated into two economically interpretable allocation rules, a maximum-profit strategy and a minimum-risk strategy. Results show that the top performing strategy, the weekly maximum-profit model augmented with Shannon entropy, achieves an accumulated return exceeding 30,000%, substantially outperforming both the baseline model and the fuzzy-entropy variant. On monthly and quarterly horizons, entropy and fuzzy entropy generate smaller but robust improvements by maintaining lower volatility and better downside protection. Industry allocations display stable and economically interpretable patterns, profit-oriented strategies concentrate primarily in cyclical and growth-sensitive industries such as semiconductors, automobiles, technology hardware, banks, and energy, while minimum-risk strategies consistently favor defensive industries including utilities, food, beverage and tobacco, real estate, and consumer staples. Overall, the results demonstrate that entropy-based complexity measures improve both economic performance and interpretability, yielding industry-rotation strategies that are simultaneously more profitable, more stable, and more transparent. Full article

Financial crises increasingly exhibit complex, interconnected patterns that traditional risk models fail to capture. The 2008 global financial crisis, 2020 pandemic shock, and recent banking sector stress events demonstrate how systemic risks propagate through multiple channels simultaneously—e.g., network contagion, extreme co-movements, and information cascades—creating a multidimensional phenomenon that exceeds the capabilities of conventional actuarial or econometric approaches alone. This paper addresses the fundamental challenge of modeling this multidimensional systemic risk phenomenon by proposing a mathematically formalized three-tier integration framework that achieves 19.2% accuracy improvement over traditional models through the following: (1) dynamic network-copula coupling that captures 35% more tail dependencies than static approaches, (2) semantic-temporal alignment of textual signals with network evolution, and (3) economically optimized threshold calibration reducing false positives by 35% while maintaining 85% crisis detection sensitivity. Empirical validation on historical data (2000–2023) demonstrates significant improvements over traditional models: 19.2% increase in predictive accuracy (R² from 0.68 to 0.87), 2.7 months earlier crisis detection compared to Basel III credit-to-GDP indicators, and 35% reduction in false positive rates while maintaining 85% crisis detection sensitivity. Case studies of the 2008 crisis and 2020 market turbulence illustrate the model’s ability to identify subtle precursor signals through integrated analysis of network structure evolution and semantic changes in regulatory communications. These advances provide financial regulators and institutions with enhanced tools for macroprudential supervision and countercyclical capital buffer calibration, strengthening financial system resilience against multifaceted systemic risks. Full article

Influenza A viruses exhibit broad host tropism, infecting multiple species including humans, avian species, and swine. Swine influenza virus (SIV), while primarily circulating in porcine populations, demonstrates zoonotic potential with sporadic human infections. In this investigation, we identified two H1N1 subtype swine influenza A virus strains designated A/swine/China/SD6591/2019(H1N1) (abbreviated SD6591) and A/swine/China/SD6592/2019(H1N1) (abbreviated SD6592) in Shandong Province, China. The GenBank accession numbers of the SD6591 viral gene segments are PV464931-PV464938, and the GenBank accession numbers corresponding to each of the eight SD6592 viral gene segments are PV464939-PV464946. Phylogenetic and recombination analyses suggest potential evolutionary differences between the isolates. SD6591 displayed a unique triple-reassortant genotype: comparative nucleotide homology assessments demonstrated that the PB2, PB1, NP, NA, HA, and NEP genes shared the highest similarity with classical swine-origin H1N1 viruses. In contrast, SD6592 maintained genomic conservation with previously characterized H1N1 swine strains, although neither of these two isolates exhibited significant intrasegmental recombination events. Through comprehensive sequence analysis of these H1N1 SIVs, this study provides preliminary insights into their evolutionary history and underscores the persistent risk of cross-species transmission at the human–swine interface. These findings establish an essential foundation for enhancing national SIV surveillance programs and informing evidence-based prevention strategies against emerging influenza threats. Full article

A Security Operation Center (SOC) is a security control center for monitoring, detecting, analyzing, and responding to cybersecurity threats. PT (Perseroan Terbatas) Non-Bank Financial Company (NBFC) has implemented an SOC to secure its information systems, but challenges remain to be solved. These include the absence of impact analysis on financial and regulatory requirements, cost, and effort estimation for recovery; established Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and Key Risk Indicators (KRIs) for monitoring security controls; and an official program for insider threats. This study evaluates SOC effectiveness at PT NBFC using the ISO 27005:2018 and NIST SP 800-30 frameworks. The research results in a proposed SOC assessment framework, integrating risk assessment, risk treatment, risk acceptance, and monitoring. Additionally, a maturity level assessment was conducted for ISO 27005:2018, NIST SP 800-30, and the proposed framework. The proposed framework achieves good maturity, with two domains meeting the target maturity value and one domain reaching level 4 (Managed and Measurable). By incorporating domains from both ISO 27005:2018 and NIST SP 800-30, the new framework offers a more comprehensive risk management approach, covering strategic, managerial, and technical aspects. Full article

We examine geographic spillovers in digital credit markets by studying how natural disasters affect borrowing behavior in adjacent, physically undamaged regions. Using granular loan-level data from Indonesia’s largest FinTech lender (2021–2023) and leveraging quasi-random variation in disaster timing and location, we estimate fixed-effects specifications that incorporate spatially lagged disaster exposure (an SLX-type spatial approach) to quantify spillovers. Disasters generate economically significant spillovers in neighboring provinces: a 1% increase in disaster frequency raises local borrowing by 0.036%, approximately 20% of the direct effect. Spillovers vary sharply with geographic connectivity—land-connected provinces experience effects about 6.6 times larger than sea-connected provinces. These results highlight that digital lending platforms can transmit geographically proximate risks beyond directly affected areas through channels that differ from traditional banking networks. The systematic nature of these spillovers suggests that disaster-response strategies may be more effective when they consider adjacent regions. That platform risk management can be strengthened by integrating spatial disaster exposure and connectivity into credit monitoring and decision rules. Full article

High-quality agricultural products from the Lambayeque region have contributed to the growth of Peru’s agro-export sector and increased international trade. However, the need for agricultural exports to be more resilient and sustainable is demonstrated by the fact that markets are still concentrated, logistical costs are high, and global demand is constantly shifting. The purpose of this study is to use a gravity-based trade model and market intelligence techniques to analyse the agricultural exports from the Lambayeque region between 2015 and 2024. Using official data from the World Bank, AZATRADE, CEPII, and MINCETUR, we employed a quantitative explanatory approach. The results show that the concentration of businesses has significantly decreased while the value of exports has increased steadily. The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index increased from 6209 in 2015 to 1349 in 2024, and export destinations have become slightly more diverse. Exports are negatively impacted by geographic distance, but free trade agreements greatly benefit them. There is a lot of export potential in markets like Finland, Indonesia, Austria, Bolivia, and Vietnam. However, Israel and Hong Kong appear to be full. Overall, the findings indicate that Lambayeque’s export performance has improved, but it still runs the risk of becoming overly focused on a single sector. Long-term sustainability of the region’s agricultural exports depends on enhancing logistical infrastructure, bolstering market intelligence, and promoting regional diversity. Full article

This research aims to analyze strategic risks from financial digitalization, highlighting the disruptive role of Fintech firms and Neobanks, the associated challenges and opportunities, and how traditional banks can adapt to remain competitive and stable in a rapidly evolving financial ecosystem. A qualitative methodology was employed, involving semi-structured interviews with 10 executives and risk management experts from the financial sector. The study employed a concurrence analysis to identify semantic relationships among categories. The unit of analysis was the paragraph, and concurrence was computed based on the frequency with which two categories appeared within the same segment. Key findings indicate that the most significant risks are linked to technological competition, regulatory shifts, cybersecurity, and consumer trust. Conversely, notable opportunities exist in technological modernization, enhanced regulatory compliance, collaboration with digital players, and the development of user-centric products and services. This study introduces the concept of a cultural gap in strategic adaptation, distinct from resistance to change, by emphasizing misalignment between organizational culture and the pace of digital transformation. This gap poses a strategic risk by delaying execution, increasing exposure to regulatory and technological risks, and reducing competitiveness. Full article

The interplay between government economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and bank risk remains a key concern in the financial stability literature. This study advances the field by examining the dynamic, time-varying impact of EPU on bank risk, explicitly differentiating between short- and long-term effects. We posit a dual hypothesis: heightened EPU increases short-run bank risk by raising borrower default probabilities while decreasing long-run risk as banks adopt more conservative lending strategies, given the option value of waiting under high uncertainty. Analyzing bank-level data across 22 countries from 1998 to 2017, we find robust empirical support: EPU exerts an immediate positive effect on bank risk and a significant negative effect with a lag of two to four years. These findings are robust to endogeneity and multiple sensitivity checks. Our results explicitly demonstrate the dual role of policy uncertainty in shaping bank risk-taking and offer timely guidance for the design of regulatory and macroprudential frameworks. Full article

This study investigates the interplay between asset quality, financial ratios, and market valuation in Indian commercial banks over a twelve-year period (2014–2025). Using a hybrid approach combining Structural Equation Modeling, correlation analysis, and trend evaluation, the research examines whether Non-Performing Assets (NPAs) influence market capitalization directly or through Return on Equity (ROE) as an intermediary. The findings reveal that NPAs exert a significant negative impact on both ROE and market value, while Net Interest Margin (NIM) emerges as a strong positive determinant of valuation. Conversely, Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), though vital for regulatory compliance, shows no direct effect on market prices. Mediation analysis challenges conventional assumptions, indicating that profitability alone does not fully explain valuation dynamics. These insights underscore the need for integrated strategies addressing asset quality and operational efficiency, offering practical implications for policymakers, investors, and bank management in strengthening resilience and optimizing shareholder value. Full article

Galba truncatula acts as an intermediate host for several parasitic flukes of veterinary importance, but a targeted study on its spatial presence as well as the impact of environmental factors in Southeastern Europe has not been conducted. During the summer months of 2017 and 2018, a survey of 191 water bodies in 14 districts in Central, Southern and Western Bulgaria was conducted, with a focus on animal drinking fountains. Each site was assessed for snail presence and characterized by altitude, temperature, precipitation, shade and type of water body. Logistic regression modeling was used to identify the important factors related to the occurrence of snail species. The frequency of habitats found was 29.3%, with no differences observed between the studied districts (p > 0.05). Snails were present across a wide range of altitudes (78–1926 m), annual mean temperature (7.8–14.0 °C) and annual mean precipitation (523–796 mm). The high habitat frequencies were recorded in streams (60.0%) and on the banks on small rivers (50.0%). The presence of snails in the two studied types of fountains (without or with a concrete platform) was 24.1% and 17.2%, respectively, with no significant difference between them (p > 0.05). Regression analysis revealed temperature, shade, and type of water body as factors that could significantly influence the spatial presence of G. truncatula. The findings demonstrate the ecological adaptability of G. truncatula and highlight its presence in habitats with high potential for contact with domestic and wild ruminants. This information fills a regional knowledge gap and can support risk assessment and control measures for fluke-borne diseases in livestock and wildlife. Full article

Interest in financial inclusion among academics has grown significantly over the past decade. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which aim to create enabling policies to mobilize financial resources, highlight key factors in poverty reduction and inclusive economic growth, particularly financial inclusion. This study focuses on 15 selected Asian economies. This research examines the role of fintech in promoting financial inclusion in Asia, employing a mixed-methods research design. The literature review part employs critical analysis based on the SciVal bibliometric tool. Quantitatively, it applies the Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) technique to country-level panel data for 2011, 2014, 2017, and 2021. This study also uses a comparative analysis of digitalization indices provided by the World Bank (WB), specifically the Global Findex Database. The findings reveal that digital payments have the most substantial effect at higher quantiles (τ = 0.5 and 0.75), reflecting their role in deepening financial engagement. Mobile money exhibits significant influence at the lower quantile (τ = 0.25), indicating its role in facilitating initial access for underserved populations. Internet usage contributes positively, albeit moderately, while GDP per capita shows no strong direct effect. Qualitative insights highlight challenges such as regulatory gaps, cybersecurity risks, and digital inequality. Full article

Canine parvovirus type 2 (CPV-2) is a primary etiological agent of acute gastroenteritis in domestic dogs. Although molecular and serological evidence have confirmed its circulation in wild carnivores, the clinical impact of spillover events in wildlife hosts remain insufficiently characterized. In this study, we investigated CPV-2 from wild coyote pups (Canis latrans) presenting with clinical gastroenteritis in northeastern Mexico. CPV-2 was successfully isolated in MDCK cells, and whole-genome sequencing was performed on two isolates, B55 and B56 (GenBank accession numbers PQ065988 and PQ065989). A comprehensive analysis identified 23 nucleotide mutations, eight of which were missense mutations resulting in amino acid substitutions in structural (VP) and non-structural (NS) proteins. Notably, amino acid substitution L354V was identified in the NS1 helicase domain of both isolates, a region critical for viral replication. Phylogenetic analysis confirmed that isolates B55 and B56 cluster within the CPV-2c subtype, showing high genetic relatedness to circulating Mexican and US canine strains which strongly suggests recent cross-species transmission between domestic dogs and wild coyotes. This study provides the first complete genomic characterization of a clinical CPV-2 infection in wild coyotes in Mexico, underscoring the immediate risk of CPV-2c transmission at the domestic animal–wildlife interface. Full article

Over the last decade, there has been a significant increase in banks’ investment in technology, alongside a substantial rise in CEO compensation. Research on executive compensation has primarily focused on traditional performance metrics, such as return on assets and return on equity, as well as governance factors. Investigating the nexus between fintech adoption and CEO compensation introduces a new perspective on the determinants of CEO pay and how technological transformation influences executive remuneration structures. This study investigated the relationship between Chief Executive remuneration and fintech adoption among banks listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. There is a lack of literature on the impact of technology adoption on CEO compensation in developing and emerging economies. The quantitative longitudinal study, conducted over 15 years from 2010 to 2024, collected secondary data from the annual reports of six banks and the IRESS database. A panel data fixed effects regression analysis was employed to analyze the data. CEO compensation included both salary and total compensation. Fintech variables used for the study included automated teller machines, mobile banking, and internet banking. The findings revealed a positive relationship between CEO salary and the rollout of ATMs and mobile banking, while an inverse relationship was noted between salary and internet banking. Similarly, total compensation showed an inverse relationship with the adoption of ATMs and internet banking, whereas mobile banking had a positive effect on total compensation. Understanding how technology impacts CEO compensation can help remuneration committees ensure that CEO pay is linked to the value that infrastructure investments bring to an organization, rather than simply the number of innovations introduced. This understanding will also help solve the principal-agent problem, as it will ensure technology innovations that enhance firm performance are rewarded. In the context of emerging markets, the study’s findings suggest that organizations should recognize and formalize pay linked to digital transformation, rather than focusing solely on short-term financial metrics. This also suggests the need to develop guidelines for executive remuneration disclosure related to the technology sector. The close connection between fintech adoption and technological and regulatory risks highlights the need to balance incentive structures that reward innovation with risk-adjusted performance measures. Full article