Search Results (750)

Optimizing agricultural structure serves as a crucial pathway to promote sustainable rural economic development. This study focuses on a representative village in the mountainous region of North China, where agricultural production is constrained by perennial low-temperature conditions, resulting in widespread adoption of single-cropping systems. There exists an urgent need to enhance both economic returns and risk resilience of limited arable land through refined cultivation planning. However, traditional planting strategies face difficulties in synergistically optimizing long-term benefits from multi-crop combinations, while remaining vulnerable to climate fluctuations, market volatility, and complex inter-crop relationships. These limitations lead to constrained land productivity and inadequate economic resilience. To address these challenges, we propose an integrated decision-making approach combining stochastic programming, robust optimization, and data-driven modeling. The methodology unfolds in three phases: First, we construct a stochastic programming model targeting seven-year total profit maximization, which quantitatively analyzes relationships between decision variables (crop planting areas) and stochastic variables (climate/market factors), with optimal planting solutions derived through robust optimization algorithms. Second, to address natural uncertainties, we develop an integer programming model for ideal scenarios, obtaining deterministic optimization solutions via genetic algorithms. Furthermore, this study conducts correlation analyses between expected sales volumes and cost/unit price for three crop categories (staples, vegetables, and edible fungi), establishing both linear and nonlinear regression models to quantify how crop complementarity–substitution effects influence profitability. Experimental results demonstrate that the optimized strategy significantly improves land-use efficiency, achieving a 16.93% increase in projected total revenue. Moreover, the multi-scenario collaborative optimization enhances production system resilience, effectively mitigating market and environmental risks. Our proposal provides a replicable decision-making framework for sustainable intensification of agriculture in cold-region rural areas. Full article

Futures and forward contracts together offer farmers of all sizes important tools for shifting and managing production risk. This risk shifting is particularly apparent in the U.S. grain complex, where the United States also has a significant export position. Because of this international reach, we argue that the futures and forward markets play a critical role in reducing world food insecurity and thus contribute to satisfying Sustainable Development Goal #2: Zero Hunger. We further argue that the presence of investors willing to take the opposite side of the farmers’ natural short hedge helps futures markets perform their key functions of price discovery and risk management. In addition to these roles, futures markets also enable farmers to finance their crops more efficiently over the production cycle, supporting operational stability. Finally, we highlight that agricultural markets in the United States are supported by significant regulation at the county, state, and federal levels. These farming regulations, coupled with federal oversight of agricultural futures markets, provide sufficient confidence that the goal of Zero Hunger is being pursued in an appropriate and effective manner, reinforcing the case for agricultural futures as a meaningful component of a broader sustainable investment strategy. Full article

Ecosystem restoration represents a promising solution for enhancing ecosystem services and environmental sustainability. However, border regions—characterized by ecological fragility and geopolitical complexity—remain underrepresented in ecosystem service and restoration research. To fill this gap, we coupled spatially explicit models (e.g., InVEST and RUSLE) with scenario analysis to quantify the ecosystem service potential that could be achieved in China’s Tibetan borderlands under two interacting agendas: ecological restoration and border-strengthening policies. Restoration feasibility was evaluated through combining local biophysical constraints, economic viability (via restoration-induced carbon gains vs. opportunity costs), operational practicality, and simulated infrastructure expansion. The results showed that per-unit-area ecosystem services in border counties (particularly Medog, Cona, and Zayu) exceed that of interior Tibet by a factor of two to four. Combining these various constraints, approximately 4–17% of the border zone remains cost-effective for grassland or forest restoration. Under low carbon pricing (US$10 t⁻¹ CO₂), the carbon revenue generated through restoration is insufficient to offset the opportunity cost of agricultural production, constituting a major constraint. Habitat quality, soil conservation, and carbon sequestration increase modestly when induced by restoration, but a pronounced carbon–water trade-off emerges. Planned infrastructure reduces restoration benefits only slightly, whereas raising the carbon price to about US$50 t⁻¹ CO₂ substantially expands such benefits. These findings highlight both the opportunities and limits of ecosystem restoration in border regions and point to carbon pricing as the key policy lever for unlocking cost-effective restoration. Full article

Against the backdrop of increasingly frequent extreme weather events and heightened market price volatility, investigating the relationship between agricultural insurance and farmers’ livelihood resilience is crucial for ensuring rural socioeconomic stability. This study utilizes field survey data from 1196 households across twelve county-level divisions (three cities and nine counties) from China’s Hainan and Yunnan provinces, specifically in natural rubber-producing regions. Using propensity score matching (PSM), we empirically examine agricultural insurance’s impact on household livelihood resilience. The results demonstrate that agricultural insurance increased the effect on farmers’ livelihood resilience by 1%. This effect is particularly pronounced among recently poverty-alleviated households and large-scale farming operations. Furthermore, the analysis highlights the mediating roles of credit availability, adoption of agricultural production technologies, and production initiative in strengthening insurance’s positive impact. Therefore, policies should be refined and expanded, combining agricultural insurance with credit support and agricultural technology extension to leverage their value and ensure the sustainable development of farm households. Full article

Mangoes are an important part of Hainan’s tropical characteristic agriculture. In response to the requirements of building an ecological civilization pilot demonstration zone in Hainan, China, green and sustainable development will be the future development trend of the mango planting system. However, the economic benefits and environmental impact during its planting and management process remain unclear. This paper combines emergy, life cycle assessment (LCA), and economic analysis to compare the system sustainability, environmental impact, and economic benefits of the traditional mango cultivation system (TM) in Dongfang City, Hainan Province, and the early-maturing mango cultivation system (EM) in Sanya City. The emergy evaluation results show that the total emergy input of EM (1.37 × 10¹⁶ sej ha⁻¹) was higher than that of TM (1.32 × 10¹⁶ sej ha⁻¹). From the perspective of the emergy index, compared with TM, EM exerted less pressure on the local environment and has better stability and sustainability. This was due to the higher input of renewable resources in EM. The LCA results showed that based on mass as the functional unit, the potential environmental impact of the EM is relatively high, and its total environmental impact index was 18.67–33.19% higher than that of the TM. Fertilizer input and On-Farm emissions were the main factors causing environmental consequences. Choosing alternative fertilizers that have a smaller impact on the environment may effectively reduce the environmental impact of the system. The economic analysis results showed that due to the higher selling price of early-maturing mango, the total profit and cost–benefit ratio of the EM have increased by 55.84% and 36.87%, respectively, compared with the TM. These results indicated that EM in Sanya City can enhance environmental sustainability and boost producers’ annual income, but attention should be paid to the negative environmental impact of excessive fertilizer input. These findings offer insights into optimizing agricultural inputs for Hainan mango production to mitigate multiple environmental impacts while enhancing economic benefits, aiming to provide theoretical support for promoting the sustainable development of the Hainan mango industry. Full article

Global policy narratives on livestock development increasingly emphasize environmental concerns, often overlooking the social dimensions of the sector. In the case of dairy, the world’s most valuable agricultural commodity, its role in social and economic development remains poorly quantified. Our study contributes to a more balanced vision of the UN SDGs thanks to the inclusion of a socio-economic dimension. Here we present a novel empirical approach to assess the socio-economic impacts of dairy development using a new global dataset and non-parametric modelling techniques (local polynomial regressions), with yield as a proxy for sectoral performance. We find that as dairy systems intensify, the number of farm households engaged in production declines, yet household incomes rise. On-farm labour productivity also increases, accompanied by a reduction in employment but higher wages. In dairy processing, employment initially grows, peaks, and then contracts, again with rising wages. The most substantial impact is observed among consumers: an increased milk supply leads to lower prices and improved affordability, expanding the access to dairy products. Additionally, dairy development is associated with greater agricultural value added, an expanding tax base, and the increased formalization of the economy. These findings suggest that dairy development, beyond its environmental footprint, plays a significant and largely positive role in social transformation, yet is having to adapt sustainably while tackling labour force relocation, and that dairy development’s social impacts mimic the general agricultural sector. These results might be of interest for the assessment of policies regarding dairy development. Full article

The management of transfer pricing operations is considered from the perspective of modeling financial and accounting processes for various organizations, using agricultural enterprises as an example. It is demonstrated that the execution of transfer pricing operations between related parties—which may function as responsibility centers within an organizational holding structure—serves as a managerial lever influencing the financial income and expenses of individual business units. It is revealed that the developed model of managerial accounting for transfer pricing operations, grounded in tax compliance and the balancing of stakeholder interests, is based on two key aspects: first, to ensure the balanced development of the company’s business units, a list of key performance indicators (KPIs) is developed and integrated into a balanced scorecard (BSC), promoting the sustainable and stable operation and growth of the company; second, with access to this list of KPIs, the manager of each business unit can exert indirect influence over a segment of the final product’s value chain by selecting transfer prices that adhere to the arm’s length principle. The practical application of the proposed model is illustrated using previously formed economic operations from the research base. Full article

The international trade in agricultural products is complex and diverse. Global buyers must diversify their import sources, while sellers must explore new market opportunities. In the past, there has been no analysis on how second-tier exporters, with a smaller market share compared to dominant exporters, interact in the same target market and within an existing trade market and what factors affect trade prices and market forces. Based on Vollrath’s revealed competitive advantage index framework, this study analyzes the global tangerine trade (HS08052100) and means of production from 2008 to 2021, performs clustering, and estimates the residual demand elasticities of two main second-tier exporting countries—South Africa and Morocco—in four major importing countries for empirical analysis. The results show that South African tangerines have a lower market share than Moroccan tangerines in the Netherlands, the United States, and the United Kingdom. However, all data indicate that the residual demand elasticity for the country’s products in the target markets is negative, indicating that South African exporters have market influence in all three markets and significantly affect the prices of Moroccan products in these markets. Unlike other studies that have focused on the ranking analysis of export indices, the novelty of this study is that it provides an oligopolistic framework based on agricultural value chain analysis, which can be used for many countries with limited export scales. The method proposed in this study is expected to help citrus traders to effectively find export markets by evaluating the remaining market niches using key market data and the prices of similar competitors in the same category. Full article

Background/Objectives: Ancient grains are increasingly recognized for their nutritional value, environmental sustainability, and connection to traditional agriculture. This study examines Italian consumers’ awareness, purchasing habits, and willingness to pay (WTP) for ancient grain pasta, focusing on the influence of product origin, price, and flour type on preferences. Methods: An online survey was conducted with 3020 Italian household grocery shoppers. Descriptive statistics assessed awareness and purchasing behavior, while conjoint analysis (CA) evaluated the relative importance of key product attributes (origin, price, and flour type) in pasta choices. The sample was segmented based on consumer knowledge of ancient grains. Results: A significant portion of respondents reported familiarity with ancient grains, perceiving them as “less refined” and “more digestible”; pasta emerged as the most purchased product. CA results indicated product origin as the most influential factor, followed by price, with flour type having comparatively lower influence. Notably, consumers more familiar with ancient grains showed a slight preference for ancient flour types and were less sensitive to price. Conclusions: While origin and price are primary drivers for pasta choices, knowledgeable consumers show greater valuation for flour type and accept higher prices. These findings provide strategic insights for stakeholders seeking to promote traditional, sustainable agri-food products through targeted marketing and transparent value communication. Full article

The drastic and historic fall in natural rubber prices has prompted many smallholders around the world to abandon rubber plantations in favor of other survival alternatives. In the Lomela and Lodja territories of Sankuru Province (Democratic Republic of Congo), where a historical absence of a rubber market prevails, local communities have conserved rubber plantations inherited from the colonial era (dating back to 1955). Data collected from 401 households enabled us to identify the perceptions and determinants of rubber plantation conservation. The results show that households are highly dependent on forest ecosystem services. Agriculture is the main activity for 81.3% of respondents, in the context of extreme poverty where daily incomes amount to 0.33 USD/person. The patriarchal system favored men, who inherited 97% of the plantations. Men perceived the conservation of the plantations as beneficial, while women perceived it as serving external project interests. Perceptions were significantly influenced by gender, age, social and legal organization, geographical origin, mode of acquisition, main activity, diversification of income sources, membership in a tribal mutuality, access to the informal mutual aid networks, membership in an association and contact with extension services. Conservation was positively and significantly correlated with geographical origin, membership in an association, contact with extension service, consideration of plantations as natural heritage and the ecosystem services provided. These results underline that rubber plantations cannot be understood only in terms of rubber production, but also in terms of their socio-ecological and heritage dimensions. Full article

Globalization and the spread of technological innovations have made world markets and economies increasingly unified and conditioned by international trade, not only for sales markets but above all for the supply of raw materials necessary for the functioning of the production complex of each country. Alongside oil and gold, the main commodities traded include industrial metals, such as aluminum and copper, mineral products such as gas, electrical and electronic components, agricultural products, and precious metals. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine tested the unification of markets, given that these are countries with notable raw materials and are strongly dedicated to exports. This suggests that commodity prices were able to influence the stock markets, especially in the countries most closely linked to the two belligerents in terms of import-export. Given the importance of industrial metals in this period of energy transition, the aim of our study is to analyze whether Industrial Metals volatility affects G7 stock markets. To this end, the BEKK-GARCH model is used. The sample period spans from 3 January 2018 to 17 September 2024. The results show that lagged shocks and volatility significantly and positively influence the current conditional volatility of commodity and stock returns during all periods. In fact, past shocks inversely influence the current volatility of stock indices in periods when external events disrupt financial markets. The results show a non-linear and positive impact of commodity volatility on the implied volatility of the stock markets. The findings suggest that the war significantly affected stock prices and exacerbated volatility, so investors should diversify their portfolios to maximize returns and reduce risk differently in times of crisis, and a lack of diversification of raw materials is a risky factor for investors. Full article

Globally, crop productive systems exhibit climatic adaptation, resulting in increased overall yields over the past century. Nevertheless, inter-annual fluctuations in production can lead to food price volatility, raising concerns about food security. Within this framework, short-term crop yield predictions informed by climate observations may significantly contribute to sustainable agricultural development. In this study, we discuss the criteria for historical monitoring and forecasting of the productive system response to climatic fluctuations, both ordinary and extreme. Here, forecasting is intended as an assessment of the conditional probability distribution of crop yield, given the observed value of a key climatic index in an appropriately chosen month of the year. Wheat production in the Teramo province (central Italy) is adopted as a case study to illustrate the approach. To characterize climatic conditions, this study utilizes the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) as a key indicator impacting wheat yield. Validation has been carried out by means of Monte Carlo simulations, confirming the effectiveness of the method. The main findings of this study show that the model describing the yield–SPEI relationship has time-varying parameters and that the study of their variation trend allows for an estimate of their current values. These results are of interest from a methodological point of view, as these methods can be adapted to various crop products across different geographical regions, offering a tool to anticipate production figures. This offers effective tools for informed decision-making in support of both agricultural and economic sustainability, with the additional benefit of helping to mitigate price volatility. Full article

South Africa’s bioeconomy strategy identifies bio-innovation as a key driver of economic growth and social development, with plant breeding playing a central role in improving food security through the development of high-yielding, resilient, and high-quality crops. However, consumer perceptions of recent advances, particularly new breeding techniques (NBTs), remain underexplored. This study examines South African consumer attitudes towards plant breeding innovations, using a mixed-methods approach. The initial focus group interviews informed the development of a structured quantitative survey examining familiarity, perceptions, and acceptance of plant breeding technologies. Consumer awareness of plant breeding principles was found to be limited, with 67–68% of respondents unfamiliar with both conventional and modern plant breeding procedures. Despite this information gap, consumers expressed conditional support for modern breeding techniques, especially when associated with actual benefits like increased nutritional value, environmental sustainability, and crop resilience. When favourable effects were outlined, support for general investment in modern breeding practices climbed from 45% to 74%. Consumer purchase decisions emphasised price, product quality, and convenience over manufacturing techniques, with sustainability ranked last among the assessed factors. Trust in the sources of food safety information varied greatly, with medical experts and scientists being ranked highly, while government sources were viewed more sceptically. The results further suggest that targeted education could improve customer confidence, as there is a significant positive association (R² = 0.938) between familiarity and acceptance. These findings emphasise the significance of open communication strategies and focused consumer education in increasing the adoption of plant breeding breakthroughs. The study offers useful insights for policymakers, researchers, and industry stakeholders working on engagement strategies to facilitate the ethical growth and application of agricultural biotechnology in support of food security and quality in South Africa. This study contributes to a better understanding of South African consumers’ perceptions of plant breeding innovations and food safety. The research findings offer valuable insights for policymakers, researchers, and industry stakeholders in developing effective engagement and communication strategies that address consumer concerns and promote the adoption of products derived from diverse plant breeding technologies. Full article

Addressing the urgent need to decarbonise aviation and valorise agricultural waste, this paper investigates the production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) from corn stover. A preliminary evaluation based on a literature review indicates that among various conversion technologies, fast pyrolysis (FP) emerged as the most promising option, offering the highest fuel yield (22.5%) among various pathways, a competitive potential minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of 1.78 USD/L, and significant greenhouse gas savings of up to 76%. Leveraging Aspen Plus simulation, SAF production via FP was rigorously designed and optimised, focusing on the heat integration strategy within the process to minimise utility consumption and ultimately the total cost. Consequently, the produced fuel exceeded the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) limit for the final boiling point, rendering it unsuitable as a standalone jet fuel. Nevertheless, it achieves regulatory compliance when blended at a rate of up to 10% with conventional jet fuel, marking a practical route for early adoption. Energy optimisation through pinch analysis integrated four hot–cold stream pairs, eliminating external heating, reducing cooling needs by 55%, and improving sustainability and efficiency. Economic analysis revealed that while heat integration slashed utility costs by 84%, the MFSP only decreased slightly from 2.35 USD/L to 2.29 USD/L due to unchanging material costs. Sensitivity analysis confirmed that hydrogen, catalyst, and feedstock pricing are the most influential variables, suggesting targeted reductions could push the MFSP below 2 USD/L. In summary, this work underscores the technical and economic viability of corn stover-derived SAF, providing a promising pathway for sustainable aviation and waste valorisation. While current limitations restrict fuel quality during full substitution, the results affirm the feasibility of SAF blending and present a scalable, low-carbon pathway for future development. Full article

Accurate assessment of biomass fuel properties is essential for quality control and fair market pricing, particularly when dealing with variable moisture content (MC) in agricultural residues. This study investigates the use of near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy to predict the lower heating value (LHV) and ash content of sugarcane leaf pellets while minimizing the interference caused by moisture variability. Sixty-two samples were scanned using an NIR spectrometer over three week-long storage periods to get different MCs with the same sample. Additionally, variable selection methods such as a genetic algorithm (GA) and moisture-related wavelength exclusion were explored. The optimal model for LHV prediction was developed using GA-PLS regression (Method II), provided a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.80, a root mean square error of calibration (RMSEc) of 595.80 J/g, and a ratio of performance to deviation (RPD) of 1.74, indicating fair predictive performance. The ash content model showed moderate accuracy, with a maximum R² of 0.61 and an RPD of 1.40. These findings suggest that the variables selected via GA in Method II were not relevant to MC; as Method II provided the best result, this indicates a low impact of MC, which may influence model construction in the future. Moreover, the findings also highlight the potential of NIR spectroscopy, combined with appropriate spectral preprocessing and wavelength optimization, as a rapid, non-destructive tool for evaluating biomass quality, enabling more precise control in bioenergy production and biomass trading. Full article