Search Results (7,987)

In the context of intensifying climate change, it is particularly important to assess the transformation of spring floods as a key phase of the hydrological regime of rivers. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the characteristics of maximum runoff in the Zhaiyk–Caspian basin for the modern period and projected changes for 2030, 2040, and 2050 based on CMIP6 climate scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). Analysis of observations at 34 hydrological stations showed a reduction in spring runoff by up to 35%, a decrease in the duration of high water and a reduction in maximum water discharge on some rivers by up to 45%. It has been established that those rising temperatures, more frequent thaws, and reduced autumn moisture lead to lower maximum water discharge and a redistribution of the seasonal flow regime. Scenario projections revealed significant spatial heterogeneity: some rivers are expected to experience an increase in maximum discharge of up to 72%, while others will see a steady decline in maximum discharge of up to 35%. The results obtained indicate the need to transition to an adaptive water management system focused on the regional characteristics of river basins and the sensitivity of small- and medium-sized watercourses to climate change. Full article

The rural population in semi-arid areas of Mexico suffers from poverty levels that hinder a dignified life, leading to migration and abandonment of their resources. This is exacerbated by climate change (droughts and high temperatures), which negatively impacts crops. While farmers attempt to adapt, their strategies are insufficient. A low-cost Complementary Agriculture (AgriCom) model was designed, using local resources to produce prickly pear (Opuntia ficus-indica Mill.) and corn (Zea mays L.), while simultaneously conserving regional germplasm of Opuntia spp. A randomized block design with three replications was used. Each block included seven varieties, with 125 plants per variety. Corn was grown as a monocrop in the same experimental site. Graphical analysis, analysis of variance with mean comparison test in RStudio, a profitability analysis, and a Land Equivalent (ELU) analysis were performed. The varieties Verdura, Atlixco, and Rojo Liso showed higher yield, internal rate of return, and net present value; their benefit–cost ratios were 7.97, 6.35, and 6.82, respectively. The ELU was greater than 1.0 when combining the prickly pear varieties. Agroclimatic conditions did not allow the corn to complete its phenological cycle, and its ELU was zero. Seventy prickly pear genotypes, with three replicates each, representing eight Opuntia species, were collected and integrated into the periphery of the production unit. This model was accepted by the Climate Action Platform for Agriculture in Latin America and the Caribbean (PLACA) for implementation in other communities. Full article

Climate change poses significant challenges to viticulture worldwide, with Eastern European vineyards experiencing increased water stress due to rising temperatures, irregular precipitation patterns, and prolonged drought periods. These climatic shifts hurt vine phenology, grape quality, and overall productivity. In response, adaptive irrigation strategies such as Regulated Deficit Irrigation (RDI) have gained attention for optimizing water use while preserving grape quality. Concurrently, the adoption of smart agriculture technologies—including soil moisture sensors, automated weather stations, remote sensing, and data-driven decision support systems—enables precise monitoring and real-time management of vineyard water status. This review synthesizes recent studies from Eastern Europe, emphasizing the necessity of integrating climate adaptation measures with intelligent irrigation management to enhance vineyard resilience and sustainability under increasing climate variability. Full article

In recent years, European cities have implemented numerous initiatives to reduce the use of resources and improve the resilience of climate change by promoting shifts toward the circular economy (CE). This comparative case study investigated the results of the applications of the CE model in the built environment from two different national approaches and perspectives of strategic planning in capitals that represent the “old” (Copenhagen) and “new” (Ljubljana) European Union (EU) member states. This paper introduces the original methodology to assess the implementation of the strategic approaches in the adaptation of the CE in architecture and urban design using a set of 10 selecting indicators. Although both cities have ambitious strategic goals and are undertaking actions aimed at shifting to the CE, they are driven by different motivations (climate crisis vs. urban revitalization and zero waste policy) and exhibit different implementation patterns (top-down systemic/institutional vs. gradual/sectoral). The results highlight the key role of a comprehensive approach to CE implementation, particularly the development of institutional frameworks and dedicated infrastructure and digital tools for transition management, the involvement of external stakeholders in the circular vision, wide-range educational activities, and the promotion of CE initiatives. However, limitations resulting from the lack of a comprehensive and standardized measurement framework pose a challenge to effectively accelerate progress in the shift toward a CE in the built environment. The main contributions of this study are: (1) to identify and verify the methods and strategies undertaken by European cities for the adaptation of a CE in the built environment and (2) demonstrate the different dimensions, levels, and the most relevant factors in the strategic management of the processes of transformation toward the CE. In addition, recommendations for future implementations based on CE systems are indicated. Full article

Climate change is accelerating the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, posing a critical threat to the stability, efficiency, and resilience of modern renewable energy grids. In this study, we propose a modular, AI-integrated digital twin co-simulation framework that enables climate adaptive control of distributed energy resources (DERs) and storage assets in distribution networks. The framework leverages deep reinforcement learning (DDPG) agents trained within a high-fidelity co-simulation environment that couples physical grid dynamics, weather disturbances, and cyber-physical control loops using HELICS middleware. Through real-time coordination of photovoltaic systems, wind turbines, battery storage, and demand side flexibility, the trained agent autonomously learns to minimize power losses, voltage violations, and load shedding under stochastic climate perturbations. Simulation results on the IEEE 33-bus radial test system augmented with ERA5 climate reanalysis data demonstrate improvements in voltage regulation, energy efficiency, and resilience metrics. The framework also exhibits strong generalization across unseen weather scenarios and outperforms baseline rule based controls by reducing energy loss by 14.6% and improving recovery time by 19.5%. These findings position AI-integrated digital twins as a promising paradigm for future-proof, climate-resilient smart grids. Full article

Climate change is fundamentally transforming global water systems, affecting the availability, quality, and ecological dynamics of water resources. This review synthesizes current scientific understanding of climate change impacts on hydrological systems, with a focus on freshwater ecosystems, and regional water availability. Rising global temperatures are disrupting thermal regimes in rivers, lakes, and ponds; intensifying the frequency and severity of extreme weather events; and altering precipitation and snowmelt patterns. These changes place mounting stress on aquatic ecosystems, threaten water security, and challenge conventional water management practices. The paper also identifies key vulnerabilities across diverse geographic regions and evaluates adaptation strategies such as integrated water resource management (IWRM), the water, energy and food (WEF) nexus, ecosystem-based approaches (EbA), the role of advanced technology and infrastructure enhancements. By adopting these strategies, stakeholders can strengthen the resilience of water systems and safeguard critical resources for both ecosystems and human well-being. Full article

Flooding in Turkey is intensifying due to both climate change and unregulated development. Despite national frameworks, local-level gaps persist in risk assessment, infrastructure, and adaptation planning. This study evaluates Turkey’s flood vulnerability using a mixed-methods approach, combining GIS-based spatial analysis, remote sensing, expert surveys, and policy review. Results highlight rapid urbanization, infrastructure deficits, and institutional fragmentation as key drivers of risk. Current policies remain reactive and disconnected from long-term climate resilience goals. The study advocates for data-driven, inclusive strategies that integrate AI, GIS, and nature-based solutions to build scalable, adaptive frameworks aligned with Turkey’s climate and sustainability objectives. Full article

In recent years, global climate fluctuation has been obvious and has had a significant impact on the food industry system, which makes the impact of climate change on the resilience of the food industry supply chain of great concern. Based on this, this paper selects the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2022; it takes the relationship between climate change and the toughness of the food industry supply chain as the entry point, and probes deeply into the intrinsic mechanism of the impact of climate change on the toughness of the food industry supply chain. The study found the following: First, climate change has a significant negative impact on the food industry supply chain resilience, and in climate change, the impact of temperature on the food industry supply chain resilience is significantly higher than the impact of rainfall on the food industry supply chain resilience. Second, the mechanism of the effect of climate change on food industry supply chains exhibits substantial heterogeneity between major food-producing regions and non-major food-producing ones and varies across different levels of mechanization. Third, crop diversification within the study scope remarkably mitigates the negative effect of temperature fluctuations on the resilience of the food industry supply chain. Therefore, the food supply chain system must enhance its capacity to withstand climate change, and current and future resilience should be strengthened by advancing the implementation of adaptation policies, plans, and actions that drive transformation. Full article

Under global warming, the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events have markedly increased. As one of the most climate-sensitive and ecologically fragile regions in the world, the Tibetan Plateau faces mounting environmental and demographic challenges. This study integrates multi-model ensemble simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) with population projection data from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) under the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5). Three extreme climate indices—very wet days precipitation (R95p), warm days (TX90p), and consecutive dry days (CDDs)—were analyzed to assess future changes in climate extremes (2021–2100) and their relationships with demographic dynamics across Tibetan ethnic areas. The results indicate that, under high-emission conditions, both R95p and TX90p increase significantly, while CDDs slightly decreases, though drought risks remain pronounced in central regions. Over the same period, the total population is projected to decline by nearly 60%, with substantial differences in climate risk exposure across groups: working-age adults and less-educated individuals experience the highest exposure before mid-century, followed by a decline, whereas the elderly and highly educated populations will show continuously increasing exposure, stabilizing by the end of the century. The transformation of population patterns is reshaping socio-cultural structures, highlighting the need for culturally adaptive governance to ensure the sustainability of Tibetan ethnic communities. These findings enhance our understanding of the coupled interactions among climate change, population dynamics, and cultural transitions, providing a scientific basis for integrated adaptation strategies to promote sustainable development across the Tibetan Plateau. Full article

Coffee is one of Peru’s most important agricultural commodities, and its productivity is highly influenced by environmental variability. This study aimed to evaluate agro-morphological traits, proximate bean composition, and the phenotypic plasticity index (PPI) of Coffea arabica (Catimor variety) cultivated in three neighboring provinces of Piura: Ayabaca, Huancabamba, and Morropón. Unlike previous studies that broadly compare distant regions, this research focuses on geographically close yet climatically contrasting environments, providing new insight into how microclimatic and edaphic variability shape both morphological and chemical traits. A total of 300 plants were sampled, and 12 morphological descriptors were recorded alongside proximate composition analyses of moisture, crude protein, fiber, ash, fat, and carbohydrates. Multivariate approaches, including cluster analysis, multiple correspondence analysis, and Pearson correlations, were applied to determine groupings and trait associations. Results indicated that 12 morphological variables consistently reflected species-specific descriptors, forming two statistical groups, with Morropón showing the greatest homogeneity. Significant differences (p ≤ 0.05) were observed in the proximate composition of most variables, except for crude fiber and carbohydrates. Morropón beans showed the highest fat and moisture values, while Huancabamba had elevated protein and ash levels. Morphological traits exhibited higher plasticity (PPI = 0.70) compared with proximate traits (PPI = 0.21). These findings reveal that even within short spatial distances, coffee plants exhibit marked phenotypic differentiation driven by local environmental factors, offering a novel, fine-scale perspective on trait variability relevant to breeding and adaptation studies under changing climatic conditions. Full article

Agriculture stands at a pivotal juncture in the twenty-first century, confronting the converging crises of climate change, biodiversity loss and rising food demand, even as it is increasingly recognised as part of the solution. This paper assesses the transformative potential of integrating three emerging paradigms—digital agriculture, regenerative agriculture and decommoditised agriculture—into a unified approach capable of delivering productivity, ecological restoration and economic viability. Digital agriculture deploys artificial intelligence, Internet of Things (IoT) networks and remote sensing to optimise inputs and sharpen decision-making. Regenerative agriculture seeks to rebuild soil function, enhance biodiversity and restore ecosystem processes through holistic, adaptive management. Decommoditised agriculture reorients value chains from bulk markets towards quality-differentiated systems that privilege direct producer–consumer relationships, value-added processing and regional market development, enabling price premiums and community resilience. We examine their convergence through the “3N” lens—net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, nature-positive outcomes and nutrition-balanced food systems. Integration creates clear complementarities: digital tools monitor, verify and optimise regenerative practices; regenerative systems provide the ecological foundation for sustainable intensification; and decommoditised models supply economic incentives that reward stewardship and nutritional quality. Persistent barriers include the digital divide, data governance, technical complexity and fragmented policy settings. Realising the benefits will require technology democratisation, interdisciplinary research, enabling regulation and farmer-centred innovation processes. We conclude that converging digital, regenerative and decommoditised approaches offers a credible and necessary pathway to resilient, sustainable and equitable agri-food systems. Full article

Agriculture is responsible for nearly one-quarter of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with livestock and poultry systems contributing significantly through methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O), and carbon dioxide (CO₂). Achieving net-zero agriculture demands tools that not only quantify emissions but also guide management decisions and foster behavioral change. The Cool Farm Tool (CFT)—a science-based calculator for farm-level carbon footprints, water use, and biodiversity—has been widely adopted across Europe and parts of the United States. Yet, despite its proven potential, no Canadian studies have tested or adapted CFT, leaving a major gap in the country’s progress toward climate-smart farming. This paper addresses that gap by presenting the first surveys of poultry and dairy producers in Atlantic Canada as a foundation for tailoring and localizing CFT. Our mixed-methods surveys examined farm practices, feed, manure, energy use, waste management, sustainability perceptions, and openness to digital tools. Results on 23 responses (20 for poultry, 3 for dairy) revealed limited awareness but moderate interest in emission tracking: dairy farmers, already accustomed to digital systems such as robotic milking and herd software, were receptive and confident about adopting CFT. Poultry farmers, by contrast, voiced greater concerns over cost, complexity, and uncertain benefits, signaling higher adoption barriers in this sector. These findings highlight both the opportunity and the challenge: while dairy farms appear ready for rapid uptake, poultry requires stronger incentives, clearer value demonstration, and sector-specific customization. We conclude that adapting CFT with regionally relevant data, AI-driven decision support, and supportive policy frameworks could make it a cornerstone for achieving net-zero agriculture in Atlantic Canada. Full article

The vulnerability of ecologically important fish species to climate change underscores the need to predict shifts in their distributions and habitat suitability under future climate scenarios. In this study, we modeled the potential distribution ranges of three ecologically important fish species (Collichthys lucidus, Konosirus punctatus, and Clupanodon thrissa) across East Asia using a species distribution modeling framework under both current and projected future climate scenarios. Occurrence data were obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and the Ocean Biodiversity Information System (OBIS), while environmental data were retrieved from the Bio-ORACLE database. Our models demonstrated high predictive performance (AUC > 0.88). Results showed that dissolved oxygen and salinity were the strongest bioclimatic predictors for C. lucidus, whereas chlorophyll and phosphate primarily shaped the distributions of K. punctatus and C. thrissa. Model projections indicated a decline in suitable habitats for C. lucidus, particularly under high-emission scenarios, and range expansions for K. punctatus and C. thrissa toward higher latitudes and nutrient-enriched waters. Highly suitable habitats were concentrated along coastlines within exclusive economic zones, exposing these species to significant anthropogenic pressures. Conservation gap analysis revealed that only 7%, 2%, and 6% of the distributional ranges of C. lucidus, C. thrissa, and K. punctatus, respectively, are currently encompassed by marine protected areas (MPAs). Our study further identified climatically stable regions that may act as climate refugia, particularly for C. lucidus in the Yellow and East China seas. Our findings highlight the urgent need for adaptive management, including the expansion and reconfiguration of MPAs, transboundary conservation initiatives, stronger regulation of exploitation, and increased public awareness to ensure the resilience of fisheries under future climate change. Full article

Supply chain resilience (SCR) is the core support for building a modernized industrial system and guaranteeing industrial security. In this paper, we aim to evaluate the impact of the Climate-Adaptive City Construction (CACC) pilot policy on SCR and to investigate its underlying mechanisms using a quasi-natural experiment based on the 2017 pilot initiative. We employ the difference-in-differences (DID) model on the panel data of 249 prefectural-level cities in China from 2006 to 2023. The results show that CACC significantly improves SCR, and this effect is stronger on the southeastern side of the Hu Huanyong line, as well as in non-resource cities and non-“two-control” cities. The mechanism analysis reveals that CACC enhances the resilience of the urban industrial chain by fostering environmental awareness, increasing the level of green technology innovation, and reducing the extent of urban sprawl. In addition, the positive spatial spillover effect of the pilot policy on SCR is further verified using the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM). The results presented in this paper serve as a reference for the continued promotion of CACC and offer policy optimization recommendations. Full article

Futures Literacy, as defined and promoted by UNESCO, is the capability to imagine, question, and use the future as a resource for better understanding the present and acting with intention. When applied to Cultural Heritage Education, it reframes heritage from a static object of preservation into a dynamic anticipatory system that evolves through dialogue between past, present, and future. This integrative approach enables learners and communities to strengthen what can be called cultural adaptive capacity, understood as the ability to ensure continuity of identity and traditions, to promote responsive innovation in the face of change, and to transmit heritage knowledge across generations. This entry situates Futures Literacy within a wider theoretical framework that includes complexity theory, anticipatory systems, and sustainability education. It emphasizes that heritage education must increasingly address uncertainty, diversity of perspectives, and interconnected challenges such as globalization, climate change, and cultural transformations. UNESCO Futures Literacy Laboratories conducted in different regions of the world, as well as ICCROM’s foresight initiatives, provide concrete examples of how anticipatory competences can be fostered in varied cultural contexts, demonstrating both universal patterns and context-specific adaptations. By embedding Futures Literacy into heritage education, cultural heritage becomes a living resource for nurturing resilience, global citizenship, and creativity. It allows communities not only to preserve their legacy but also to reimagine it as a driver of innovation and inclusion. Ultimately, this perspective highlights the potential of education to enhance cultural sustainability, foster intergenerational solidarity, and cultivate temporal justice, preparing societies to face the uncertainties of the future with confidence and responsibility. Full article