Search Results (82)

Invasive alien species pose escalating threats to global biodiversity and ecosystems, which may be exacerbated by climate change, potentially leading to range expansions and intensified impacts. In China, Mikania micrantha Kunth, a fast-growing tropical vine listed among the world’s 100 worst invasive species, has proliferated since its introduction in the mid-20th century, causing severe ecological damage through the smothering of vegetation, suppression of allelopathy, and economic losses in agriculture and forestry. This study aimed to predict its current and future distributions to guide management. Using 205 stringently filtered occurrence records from databases, surveys, and literature, combined with bioclimatic variables from WorldClim and MaxEnt modeling—optimized via ENMeval and evaluated by AUC (>0.97)—projected habitats under current (1970–2000) conditions and future SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0 scenarios for the 2050s and 2070s via the BCC-CSM2-HR model. Temperature factors dominated predictions, with current excellent suitability (3.6 × 10⁴ km²) concentrated in Hainan and southern Guangdong, expanding to good and moderate zones in Guangxi, Fujian, and Yunnan. Future averages showed expansions in excellent (21.3%), good (10.0%), and moderate (14.0%) habitats, with some northward shifts into Jiangxi and Hunan under higher emissions. In situ augmentation of habitat suitability and spatial containment overshadows the northward range expansion. The high-emission scenario is projected to lead to temperature overshoots, which will dampen habitat suitability. The findings underscore M. micrantha’s resilience to warming, necessitating integrated strategies such as guarding critical biodiversity sites, early detection, biocontrol, and habitat restoration to mitigate risks in both core and emerging zones. Full article

Sweet cherry (Prunus avium L.), a temperate fruit species highly sensitive to thermal and hydric stress, faces increasing cultivation challenges in semi-arid regions such as Fez-Meknes (Morocco) due to climate change. This study aims to identify ecologically suitable zones for sweet cherry cultivation by modeling its current potential distribution using the MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) approach. A total of 1151 georeferenced occurrence records were collected through field surveys and validated with satellite imagery. Nineteen bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim database were initially considered, and a subset with low multicollinearity (|r| < 0.7) was retained for analysis. Model performance, evaluated using the area under the ROC curve (AUC), yielded a high mean value of 0.960 ± 0.014, indicating excellent predictive accuracy. Elevation, annual precipitation (BIO12), and precipitation seasonality (BIO15) emerged as key drivers of the species’ distribution, as confirmed by both Jackknife and SPCPI analyses. Spatial prediction maps highlighted high-suitability zones in the provinces of Ifrane, El Hajeb, Azrou, and Sefrou, aligning with known agro-climatic production areas. In contrast, lower suitability was observed in more arid or heat-prone provinces such as Boulemane and Midelt. These findings provide a robust bioclimatic framework for agroecological planning, supporting adaptive varietal zoning and long-term planning for climate-resilient horticulture. Full article

Olive cultivation constitutes a fundamental Mediterranean rural activity in Greece, as it primarily accounts for the country’s substantial socio-economic development. Although the olive tree is one of the best acclimated species, its overall performance may be significantly impacted by changes in the climate. Thus, by considering the lack of scientific research on the climate suitability evaluation of olive groves over the entire Greek territory, a study between the geomorphological parameter mapping of Greece (altitude, aspect, slope, and terrain roughness) and the respective required atmospheric conditions for the olive crop’s growth (temperature, precipitation, and frost days) was performed. Every parameter is reclassified to translate its value into a score, and the final suitability map is the outcome of the aggregation of all score maps. Individually, the overall suitability for olive cultivation is high in Greece, given its extensive area, resulting in a high score (8–10); geomorphological and climatic conditions (34.44% and 59.40%, respectively); and overall suitability conditions (42.00%) for olive cultivation. Over the identified olive grove areas, the model gives a high score (8–10) for 91.59% of the cases. The model may be characterized by its simplicity, usability, flexibility, and efficiency. The current modelling procedure may serve as a means for identifying suitable areas for the sustainable and productive development of olive cultivation. Full article

This study investigated the application of Species Distribution Models (SDMs), based on Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) and Random Forest (RF), to predict the distribution of citrus crops in a Mediterranean climate by comparing climate data from WorldClim with those from the Regional Territorial Information System of Sicily (S.I.T.R.). To this aim, 19 bioclimatic variables were calculated from monthly temperature and precipitation data in the period 2003–2021 by using the biovars package in R software version 2023.12.0+369. Soil properties, terrain elevation, slope, and soil water retention capacity were considered to adequately simulate pedoclimatic conditions in the Syracuse area in Sicily (Italy). The SDM algorithms performed well (AUC: 0.84–0.93; TSS: 0.51–0.69), and Random Forest was selected to compare global and local outcomes. Using data from local meteorological stations increased the model’s reliability, resulting in a difference of approximately ~800 ha in the predicted citrus distribution compared to WorldClim data. This approach also provided a more accurate representation of precipitation patterns, for instance, in the municipality of Augusta, where WorldClim underestimated the average annual rainfall by 284 mm. These findings emphasise the importance of incorporating local environmental data into SDMs to improve prediction accuracy and inform future hybrid approaches to enhance model robustness in the context of climate change. Finally, the results contribute to expanding knowledge of citrus soil and climate conditions, with potential implications for land-use planning. Full article

Catalpa bungei C. A. Mey, an economically and ecologically important tree species endemic to China, exhibits notable drought resistance; however, the spatial dynamics of its habitat under future climate change have not been thoroughly investigated. We employed a parameter-optimized MaxEnt modeling framework to project current and future suitable habitats for C. bungei under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios, SSP126 (low-emission) and SSP585 (high-emission), based on CMIP6 climate data. We incorporated 126 spatially rarefied occurrence records and 22 environmental variables into a rigorous modeling workflow that included multicollinearity assessment and systematic variable screening. Parameter optimization was performed using the kuenm package in R version 4.2.3, and the best-performing model configuration was selected (Regularization Multiplier = 2.5; Feature Combination = LQT) based on the AICc, omission rate, and evaluation metrics (AUC, TSS, and Kappa). Model validation demonstrated robust predictive accuracy. Four primary environmental predictors obtained from WorldClim version 2.1—the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), annual precipitation (Bio12), maximum temperature of the warmest month (Bio5), and elevation—collectively explained over 90% of habitat suitability. Currently, the optimal habitats are concentrated in central and eastern China. By the 2090s, the total suitable habitats are projected to increase by approximately 4.25% under SSP126 and 18.92% under SSP585, coupled with a significant northwestward shift in the habitat centroid. Conversely, extremely suitable habitats are expected to markedly decline, particularly in southern China, due to escalating climatic stress. These findings highlight the need for adaptive afforestation planning and targeted conservation strategies to enhance the climate resilience of C. bungei under future climate change. Full article

This study developed a preliminary screening framework for identifying candidate Magnolia species potentially resistant to drought and cold conditions, using open access plant specimens and climate data. Based on 969 specimens, a distribution database was constructed to map 35 Magnolia species in China. Nonparametric variance analysis revealed significant interspecific differences in precipitation of the driest quarter (PDQ) and minimum temperature of the coldest month (MTCM). Using the updated climatic thresholds, nine candidate species each were identified as having drought resistance (PDQ < 60.5 mm) and cold tolerance (MTCM < 0.925 °C). In conclusion, the proposed method integrates geocoded specimen information with climate data, providing preliminary candidate species for future physiological validation, conservation planning, and further botanical research. However, the primary focus on climate data and lack of consideration of non-climatic factors warrant cautious interpretation of the results and comprehensive investigations for validation of the present study results. Full article

Background: The relationship between medicinal efficacy and the geographical environment in Thesium chinense Turcz. (T. chinense Turcz.), a traditional Chinese herb, remains systematically unexplored. This study integrates metabolomics, machine learning, and ecological factor analysis to elucidate the geographical variation patterns and regulatory mechanisms of secondary metabolites in T. chinense Turcz. from Anhui, Henan, and Shanxi Provinces. Methods: Metabolomic profiling was conducted on T. chinense Turcz. samples collected from three geographical origins across Anhui, Henan, and Shanxi Provinces. Machine learning algorithms (Random Forest, LASSO regression) identified region-specific biomarkers through intersection analysis. Metabolic pathway enrichment employed MetaboAnalyst 5.0 with target prediction. Antioxidant activity (DPPH/hydroxyl radical scavenging) was quantified spectrophotometrically. Environmental correlation analysis incorporated 19 WorldClim variables using redundancy analysis, Mantel tests, and Pearson correlations. Results: We identified 43 geographical marker compounds (primarily flavonoids and alkaloids). Random forest and LASSO regression algorithms determined core markers for each production area: Anhui (4 markers), Henan (6 markers), and Shanxi (3 markers). Metabolic pathway enrichment analysis revealed these markers exert pharmacological effects through neuroactive ligand–receptor interaction and PI3K-Akt signaling pathways. Redundancy analysis demonstrated Anhui samples exhibited significantly higher antioxidant activity (DPPH and hydroxyl radical scavenging rates) than other regions, strongly correlating with stable low-temperature environments (annual mean temperature) and precipitation patterns. Conclusions: This study established the first geo-specific molecular marker system for T. chinense Turcz., demonstrating that the geographical environment critically influences metabolic profiles and bioactivity. Findings provide a scientific basis for quality control standards of geo-authentic herbs and offer insights into plant–environment interactions for sustainable cultivation practices. Full article

Cotton is the most widely consumed natural fiber globally and emits fewer greenhouse gases compared to synthetic alternatives. Brazil is currently the largest cotton exporter, and understanding its potential for sustainable expansion is crucial. This study developed agroclimatic zoning maps for cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) across Brazil under current and future climate conditions using data from the World-Clim and MapBiomas platforms. Four climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) were assessed over multiple time periods. Results showed that rising temperatures and reduced rainfall will likely reduce cotton suitability in traditional producing regions such as Bahia. However, areas with potential for cotton cultivation, especially in Mato Grosso, which currently accounts for 90% of national production, remain extensive, with agroclimatic conditions indicating a theoretical expansion potential of up to 40 times the current cultivated area. This projection must be interpreted with caution, as it does not account for economic, logistical, or social constraints. Notably, Brazilian cotton is cultivated with minimal irrigation, low fertilizer input, and high adoption of no-till systems, making it one of the least carbon-intensive globally. Full article

Deforestation and forest degradation are important drivers of global warming, yet their implications on regional temperature and precipitation patterns are more elusive. In the Yucatán Peninsula, forest cover loss and deterioration has been rapidly advancing over the past decades. We applied local indicators of spatial association (LISA) cluster analysis and spatial autoregressive models (SAR) to evaluate the spatial relationships between tree cover and regional temperature and precipitation. We integrated NASA’s Global Forest Cover Change (GFCC) and WorldClim’s historical monthly weather datasets (2000–2015) to assess the effects of deforested, degraded, and dense forest land cover on temperature and precipitation distributions on the Yucatán Peninsula. LISA cluster analyses show warmer and drier conditions geographically coincide with deforested and degraded tree cover, but outliers allude to the potential influence of forest cover impacts on regional climate. Controlling spatial dependencies and including covariates, SAR models indicate that deforestation is associated with higher annual mean temperatures and minimum temperatures during dry and wet seasons, and decreased precipitation in the dry season. Degraded tree cover was related to higher maximum temperatures but did not relate to precipitation variability. We highlight the complex interactions between forest cover and climate and emphasize the importance of forest conservation for mitigating regional climate change. Full article

The article addresses the current and future potential distribution of Drosophila suzukii (Diptera: Drosophilidae), commonly known as spotted wing Drosophila (SWD). This invasive pest affects various fruit crops worldwide. Native to Southeast Asia, the species has rapidly expanded due to its high adaptability to climates and ability to infest ripe fruits. SWD occurrence data were collected from multiple databases, pseudo-absences were selected from the background area, and climatic variables were downloaded from WorldClim. The Random Forest algorithm was employed to model the current distribution and project future scenarios, categorizing environmental suitability into high, moderate, and low levels. The analysis of bioclimatic variables indicated that factors such as isothermality, maximum temperature of the warmest month, and precipitation of the driest month are the most significant for pest distribution. The results revealed high climatic suitability for the species in North America, Europe, and Asia, with projections indicating expansion under climate change scenarios in the Northern Hemisphere, including new areas in Europe and North America. Regions with higher suitability are expected to require management and monitoring strategies, particularly in vulnerable agricultural areas. Furthermore, the study underscores the importance of climatic data in predicting pest distribution and formulating effective control and mitigation policies. Full article

Understanding the response of species to past climate change provides great opportunities to know their adaptive capacity for resilience under future climate change. Since the Late Pleistocene, dramatic climate fluctuations have significantly impacted the distribution of giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca). However, how the spatial distribution and climatic niche of giant pandas shifted in response to past climate change remain poorly understood. Based on the known distribution records (fossil and present day) and the most updated climate projections for the Last Interglacial (LIG; ~120 ka), Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~22 ka), Mid-Holocene (MH; ~6 ka), and the present day, we predicted and compared the distribution and climatic niche of giant pandas. The results show that giant pandas have undergone a considerable range contraction (a 28.27% reduction) followed by a marked range expansion (a 75.8% increase) during the LIG–LGM–MH period, while its climatic niche remained relatively stable. However, from the MH to the current, both the distribution area and climatic niche of giant pandas have undergone significant changes. Our findings suggest that the giant panda may adjust its distribution to track stable climatic niches in response to future climate change. Future conservation planning should designate accessible areas for giant pandas and adjust priority conservation areas as needed. Full article

Land-Cover and Land-Use Change (LCLUC) is a dynamic process affected by the combination and mutual interaction of climatic and socioeconomic drivers. Field studies and surveys, which are typically time- and resource-consuming, have been employed by researchers to better understand LCLUC drivers. However, remotely sensed data may provide the same trustworthy outcomes with less time and expense. This study aimed to assess the relationship between LCLUC and changes in socioeconomic and climatic factors in the Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) metropolitan area, Texas, USA, between 2000 and 2020. The LCLU, socioeconomic, and climatic data were obtained from the National Land Cover Database of Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics Consortium, NASA’s Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC), and the global climate and weather data website (WorldClim), respectively. Change detection calculated from these data was used to analyze spatial and statistical relationships between LCLUC and changes in socioeconomic and climatic factors. Results showed that LCLUC was significantly predicted by population change, housing and transportation, household and disability change, socioeconomic status change, monthly average minimum temperature change, and monthly mean precipitation change. While socioeconomic factors played a predominant role in driving LCLUC in this study, the influence of climatic factors should not be overlooked, particularly in regions where climate sensitivity is more pronounced, such as arid or transitional zones. These findings highlight the importance of considering regional variability when assessing LCLUC drivers. Full article

Understanding global patterns of tree canopy height and density is essential for effective forest management and conservation planning. This study examines how these attributes vary along latitudinal gradients and identifies key climatic drivers influencing them. We utilized high-resolution remote sensing datasets, including a 10 m resolution canopy height dataset aggregated to 1 km for computational efficiency, and a 1 km resolution tree density dataset derived from ground-based measurements. To quantify the relationships between forest structure and environmental factors, we applied nonlinear regression models and climate dependency analyses, incorporating bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim dataset. Our key finding is that latitude exerts a dominant but asymmetric control on tree height and density, with tropical regions exhibiting the strongest correlations. Tree height follows a quadratic latitudinal pattern, explaining 29.3% of global variation, but this relationship is most pronounced in the tropics (−10° to 10° latitude, R² = 91.3%), where warm and humid conditions promote taller forests. Importantly, this effect differs by hemisphere, with the Southern Hemisphere (R² = 67.1%) showing stronger latitudinal dependence than the Northern Hemisphere (R² = 35.3%), indicating climatic asymmetry in forest growth dynamics. Tree density exhibits a similar quadratic trend but with weaker global predictive power (R² = 7%); however, within the tropics, latitude explains 90.6% of tree density variation, underscoring strong environmental constraints in biodiverse ecosystems. Among climatic factors, isothermality (Bio 3) is identified as the strongest determinant of tree height (R² = 50.8%), suggesting that regions with stable temperature fluctuations foster taller forests. Tree density is most strongly influenced by the mean diurnal temperature range (Bio 2, R² = 36.3%), emphasizing the role of daily thermal variability in tree distribution. Precipitation-related factors (Bio 14 and Bio 19) moderately explain tree height (~33%) and tree density (~25%), reinforcing the role of moisture availability in structuring forests. This study advances forest ecology research by integrating high-resolution canopy structure data with robust climate-driven modeling, revealing previously undocumented hemispheric asymmetries and biome-specific climate dependencies. These findings improve global forest predictive models and offer new insights for conservation strategies, particularly in tropical regions vulnerable to climate change. Full article

Climate change poses a significant threat to biodiversity. Predicting the impacts of climate change on species distribution and dispersal through computational models and big data analysis can provide valuable insights. These predictions are crucial for developing effective strategies to mitigate the threats that climate change poses to biodiversity. Our study investigated the potential impact of climate change on an umbrella species (Ursus arctos pruinosus) in Western Sichuan Province, China. We employed the MaxEnt and Circuit Theory to assess both the current and potential future shifts in the distribution and migration corridors. The results indicated that climate and environmental factors had the greatest influence on species distribution, with bioclimatic variables bio12, bio3, and elevation contributing 22.1%, 21.5%, and 19.3%, respectively. Under current climatic conditions, the total suitable habitat area for the species was 70,969.78 km², with the largest suitable habitats located in Shiqu and Litang, accounting for 24.39% and 15.86% of the total area, respectively. However, under future climate scenarios, predictions for RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 showed a significant reduction in suitable habitat area, ranging from 7789.26 km² to 16,678.85 km². The Yajiang and Xinlong counties experienced the most severe habitat reductions, with declines exceeding 50%. Additionally, the altitudinal distribution of suitable habitats shifted, with suitable habitats gradually moving to higher elevations under future climate scenarios. Our study also analyzed the species’ dispersal paths. Under current climatic conditions, the dispersal paths predominantly followed a northwest-to-southeast orientation. However, by the 2070s, under all three RCPs, dispersal resistance is projected to significantly increase, the density of dispersal paths will decrease, and the connectivity of these paths will be reduced. In the most extreme RCP 8.5 scenario, southern dispersal paths nearly disappeared, and the dispersal paths contracted towards the northwest. These findings highlight potential threats posed by climate change to the species’ habitats and dispersal corridors, emphasizing the importance of considering both current and future climate change in conservation strategies to protect this vulnerable species and its ecosystem. Full article

Background: Drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) remains a major public health challenge in China, with varying treatment outcomes across different regions. Understanding the spatial distribution of DR-TB treatment outcomes is crucial for targeted interventions to improve treatment success in high-burden areas such as Hunan Province. This study aimed to map the spatial distribution of DR-TB treatment outcomes at a local level and identify sociodemographic and environmental factors associated with poor treatment outcomes in Hunan Province, China. Methods: A spatial analysis was conducted using DR-TB data from the Tuberculosis Control Institute of Hunan Province, covering the years 2013 to 2018. The outcome variable, the proportion of poor treatment outcomes, was defined as a composite measure of treatment failure, death, and loss to follow-up. Sociodemographic, economic, healthcare, and environmental variables were obtained from various sources, including the WorldClim database, the Malaria Atlas Project, and the Hunan Bureau of Statistics. These covariates were linked to a map of Hunan Province and DR-TB notification data using R software version 4.4.0. The spatial clustering of poor treatment outcomes was analyzed using the local Moran’s I and Getis–Ord statistics. A Bayesian logistic regression model was fitted, with the posterior parameters estimated using integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA). Results: In total, 1381 DR-TB patients were included in the analysis. An overall upward trend in poor DR-TB treatment outcomes was observed, peaking at 14.75% in 2018. Deaths and treatment failures fluctuated over the years, with a notable increase in deaths from 2016 to 2018, while the proportion of patients lost to follow-up significantly declined from 2014 to 2018. The overall proportion of poor treatment outcomes was 9.99% (95% credible interval (CI): 8.46% to 11.70%), with substantial spatial clustering, particularly in Anxiang (50%), Anren (50%), and Chaling (42.86%) counties. The proportion of city-level indicators was significantly associated with higher proportions of poor treatment outcomes (odds ratio (OR): 1.011; 95% CRI: 1.20 December 2024 001–1.035). Conclusions: This study found a concerning increase in poor DR-TB treatment outcomes in Hunan Province, particularly in certain high-risk areas. Targeted public health interventions, including enhanced surveillance, focused healthcare initiatives, and treatment programs, are essential to improve treatment success. Full article