Search Results (35)

Floods, one of the costliest, and most frequent hazards, are expected to worsen in the U.S. due to climate change. The real-time forecasting of flood inundations is extremely important for proactive decision-making to reduce damage. However, traditional forecasting methods face challenges in terms of implementation and scalability due to computational burdens and data availability issues. Current forecasting services in the U.S. largely rely on hydrodynamic modeling, limited to river reaches near in situ gauges and requiring extensive data for model setup and calibration. Here, we have successfully adapted the Forecasting Inundation Extents using REOF (FIER) analysis framework to produce forecasted water fraction maps in two U.S. flood-prone regions, specifically the Red River of the North Basin and the Upper Mississippi Alluvial Plain, utilizing Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) optical imagery and the National Water Model. Comparing against historical VIIRS imagery for the same dates, FIER 1- to 8-day medium-range pseudo-forecasts show that about 70–80% of pixels exhibit absolute errors of less than 30%. Although originally developed utilizing Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images, this study demonstrated FIER’s versatility and effectiveness in flood forecasting by demonstrating its successful adaptation with optical VIIRS imagery which provides daily water fraction product, offering more historical observations to be used as inputs for FIER during peak flood times, particularly in regions where flooding commonly happens in a short period rather than following a broad seasonal pattern. Full article

A method for estimating river water surface elevation (WSE) from Landsat imagery using the river inundation area–water surface elevation (RIA-WSE) rating curve constructed from the U.S. Geological Survey Topobathymetric Elevation Model (TEM) data was developed and tested at six gauging stations along the Upper Mississippi River. Otsu’s automatic threshold selection algorithm was employed for the image classification and estimation of inundation areas within each predefined polygon around each gauging station. In addition to the commonly used green-band-based water indices, Landsat 8 and 9 OLI’s ultra-blue, blue, and red band-based water indices were also tested in this study, which resulted in twenty different water indices: NDWIv (Normalized Difference Water Index), MNDWI1v and MNDWI2v (Modified Normalized Difference Water Index), AWEIsv (Automatic Water Extraction Index with shadows), and AWEInsv (AWEI without shadows), where v represents the visible light band used in the water index. At each station, about 60–80 Landsat 8 or 9 images during 2013–2023 were used to assess the performances of the twenty water indices by comparing the estimated WSEs with the measured WSEs. The results showed that the ultra-blue or red band-based AWEIs yielded the most accurate estimations of WSEs among the twenty tested water indices. Full article

Many Mississippi River Delta studies have shown recent declines in fluvial sediment load from the river and associated land loss. In contrast, recent sedimentary processes on the subaqueous delta are less documented. To help address this knowledge gap, multicores were collected offshore from the three main river outlets at water depths of 25–280 m in June 2017 just after the peak river discharge period, with locations selected based on 2017 U.S. Geological Survey seabed mapping. The coring locations included the undisturbed upper foreset, mudflow lobes, gullies, and the undisturbed prodelta. Nine multicores were analyzed for Beryllium-7 activity, and four cores were analyzed for excess Thorium-234 activity via gamma spectrometry, granulometry and X-radiography. Our results indicate a general trend of declining ⁷Be and ²³⁴Th activities and inventories with increasing distance from sources and in deeper water. The core X-radiographs are graded from the predominantly physically stratified nearshore to the more bioturbated offshore, consistent with the sedimentation patterns. Sediment focusing assessed via the ⁷Be and ²³⁴Th sediment inventories shows preferential sedimentation in gully and lobe environments, whereas the upper foreset and prodelta focusing factors are relatively depleted. Overall, short-term sediment deposition from the main fluvial source remains active offshore from all three major river outlets, despite the overall declining river load. Full article

Sicklefin (Macrhybopsis meeki) and sturgeon chub (M. gelida) historically occurred throughout the Missouri River (MR), in some tributaries, and Mississippi River downstream of the MR. They have been species of U.S. state-level conservation concern and U.S. Endangered Species Act listing candidates since the 1990s. We applied analytical approaches from occupancy modeling to correlation to monitoring data spanning 23 years to assess relationships between occupancy and time, space, environmental factors, habitat, and other species. Sicklefin chub occupancy appeared higher in the early to mid-2000s and mid-to-late 2010s. A potential decline in occupancy occurred for sturgeon chub in the mid-to-late 2010s. Spatially, chub occupancy was depressed for 159 to 438 km downstream of MR dams. Among macrohabitats, inside bends had relatively high occupancy for both species; secondary connected channels had relatively high values for sturgeon chub. Co-occurrence was likely between sicklefin and sturgeon chub and between chubs and shovelnose sturgeon (Scaphirhybchus platorybchus) and channel catfish (Ictalurus punctatus). The observed co-occurrence of chubs and pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus; PS) was potentially higher than expected for adult PS. For juvenile PS, co-occurrence was lower than expected in the Lower MR and potentially higher than expected in the Upper MR, warranting future research. Results from this research suggest management for the improvement of sicklefin and sturgeon chub populations may benefit other MR fish populations. Full article

Meadow fescue, Schedonorus pratensis (Huds.) P. Beauv., has recently been discovered as a common but previously unknown pasture grass in the Driftless Area of the upper Mississippi River Valley, USA. Preliminary data also indicated that many meadow fescue pastures were infected with an endophytic fungus, Epichloë uncinata (W. Gams, Petrini & D. Schmidt) Leuchtm. & Schardl. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine if the endophyte impacts agronomic fitness of the host meadow fescue. Meadow fescue plants from eight farm sites were intensively sampled, and endophyte infection levels were determined to range from 82 to 95%. Paired endophyte-infected (E+) and endophyte-free (E−) meadow fescue subpopulations from each collection site were then created, and were subsequently compared for greenhouse and field drought tolerance, forage mass, and persistence under frequent defoliation. There was no impact of the endophyte under a wide range of drought conditions for either greenhouse or field studies. Furthermore, there was a small forage-mass-enhancement effect in the E+ subpopulation for only one of the eight collection sites. The only consistent effect was an average of 9% increased ground cover (persistence) in endophyte-infected meadow fescue under frequent defoliation. As per other studies, enhanced root growth, fungal-disease resistance, and/or reduced insect feeding could be mechanisms for this increased survivorship. We conclude that the meadow fescue endophytes present in the Driftless Area do not help protect their host from drought or provide any consistent forage-growth enhancement; however, we found evidence that the endophyte provides some protection against frequent defoliation at low residual sward heights. Full article

Powerplants frequently use river water for cooling, subsequently discharging warm effluent. Some of these plants can cycle on and off rapidly based on electricity demand, resulting in dramatic temperature fluctuations in the receiving waters. To understand the impacts on resident fish populations in the Upper Mississippi River, we (i) assessed the effects of rapid water cooling on three native fish species; (ii) investigated whether smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) behavior favored movement into thermal plumes when given a choice of cooler or ambient water; and (iii) tracked native M. dolomieu with acoustic tags and recorded core body temperature during the thermal cycling process of a steam electric powerplant. In cold shock experiments, mortality was associated with rapid temperature declines and dependent on the final (cold) holding temperature. The species or developmental stage of the tested organism did not affect survival. When given a choice between warm and ambient waters, M. dolomieu exhibited little inclination to acclimate to the warmer water and instead “self-regulated” by moving in and out of the warm water plume. This finding was supported by telemetry data on M. dolomieu. The core temperature of the fish never increased more than 2 °C above the ambient (upstream) Mississippi River temperature, even during warm effluent discharge. Full article

To minimize the eutrophication pressure along the Gulf of Mexico or reduce the size of the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico, it is important to understand the underlying temporal and spatial variations and correlations in excess nutrient loads, which are strongly associated with the formation of hypoxia. This study’s objective was to reveal and visualize structures in high-dimensional datasets of nutrient yield distributions throughout the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB). For this purpose, the annual mean nutrient concentrations were collected from thirty-three US Geological Survey (USGS) water stations scattered in the upper and lower MARB from 1996 to 2020. Eight surface water quality indicators were selected to make comparisons among water stations along the MARB over the past two decades. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to comprehensively evaluate the nutrient yields across thirty-three USGS monitoring stations and identify the major contributing nutrient loads. The results showed that all samples could be analyzed using two main components, which accounted for 81.6% of the total variance. The PCA results showed that yields of orthophosphate (OP), silica (SI), nitrate–nitrites (NO₃-NO₂), and total suspended sediment (TSS) are major contributors to nutrient yields. It also showed that land-planted crops, density of population, domestic and industrial discharges, and precipitation are fundamental causes of excess nutrient loads in MARB. These factors are of great significance for the excess nutrient load management and pollution control of the Mississippi River. It was found that the average nutrient yields were stable within the sub-MARB area, but the large nitrogen yields in the upper MARB and the large phosphorus yields in the lower MARB were of great concern. t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE) revealed interesting nonlinear and local structures in nutrient yield distributions. Clustering analysis (CA) showed the detailed development of similarities in the nutrient yield distribution. Moreover, PCA, t-SNE, and CA showed consistent clustering results. This study demonstrated that the integration of dimension reduction techniques, PCA, and t-SNE with CA techniques in machine learning are effective tools for the visualization of the structures of the correlations in high-dimensional datasets of nutrient yields and provide a comprehensive understanding of the correlations in the distributions of nutrient loads across the MARB. Full article

Macrophyte (aquatic plant) recovery has occurred in rivers worldwide, but assemblage patterns and habitat requirements are generally not well understood. We examined patterns of species composition and macrophyte abundance in the Upper Mississippi River (UMR), spanning 22 years of monitoring and a period of vegetation recovery. Non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) ordination revealed a gradient of macrophyte abundance and diversity for 25 species, which were associated with water velocity, depth, wind fetch, and water clarity. Three macrophyte genera of ecological and restoration interest (Zizania aquatica, Vallisneria americana, and Sagittaria spp.) occupied different ecological niches. Trends of NMDS values showed that Z. aquatica first co-occurred in shallow areas with Sagittaria spp. but then expanded into deeper, lotic habitats where V. americana often resided. Curve Fit regression analysis identified large areas of significant increases in the relative abundance of V. americana and percent cover of Z. aquatica in several reaches of the UMR from 1998–2019. Sagittaria spp. were more spatiotemporally dynamic, which may indicate specific habitat requirements and sensitivity to environmental gradients. Our analyses showed that these three ecologically important genera are spatiotemporally dynamic but have somewhat predictable habitat associations, which can guide macrophyte management and restoration in the UMR and other large, floodplain rivers. Full article

Effective water quality management and reliable environmental modeling depend on the availability, size, and quality of water quality (WQ) data. Observed stream water quality data are usually sparse in both time and space. Reconstruction of water quality time series using surrogate variables such as streamflow have been used to evaluate risk metrics such as reliability, resilience, vulnerability, and watershed health (WH) but only at gauged locations. Estimating these indices for ungauged watersheds has not been attempted because of the high-dimensional nature of the potential predictor space. In this study, machine learning (ML) models, namely random forest regression, AdaBoost, gradient boosting machines, and Bayesian ridge regression (along with an ensemble model), were evaluated to predict watershed health and other risk metrics at ungauged hydrologic unit code 10 (HUC-10) basins using watershed attributes, long-term climate data, soil data, land use and land cover data, fertilizer sales data, and geographic information as predictor variables. These ML models were tested over the Upper Mississippi River Basin, the Ohio River Basin, and the Maumee River Basin for water quality constituents such as suspended sediment concentration, nitrogen, and phosphorus. Random forest, AdaBoost, and gradient boosting regressors typically showed a coefficient of determination $R^2>0.8$ for suspended sediment concentration and nitrogen during the testing stage, while the ensemble model exhibited $R^2>0.95$. Watershed health values with respect to suspended sediments and nitrogen predicted by all ML models including the ensemble model were lower for areas with larger agricultural land use, moderate for areas with predominant urban land use, and higher for forested areas; the trained ML models adequately predicted WH in ungauged basins. However, low WH values (with respect to phosphorus) were predicted at some basins in the Upper Mississippi River Basin that had dominant forest land use. Results suggest that the proposed ML models provide robust estimates at ungauged locations when sufficient training data are available for a WQ constituent. ML models may be used as quick screening tools by decision makers and water quality monitoring agencies for identifying critical source areas or hotspots with respect to different water quality constituents, even for ungauged watersheds. Full article

Aquatic invasive plants (AIPs) are a global threat to local biodiversity due to their rapid adaptation to the new environments. Lythrum salicaria, commonly known as purple loosestrife, is a predominant AIP in the upper Midwestern region of the United States and has been designated as a deadly threat to the wetlands of this region. Accurate estimation of its current extent is a top priority, but regular monitoring is limited due to cost-, labor-, and time-intensive field surveys. Therefore, the goal of the present study is to accurately detect purple loosestrife from very high-resolution UAV imagery using deep neural network-based models. As a case study, this study implemented U-Net and LinkNet models with ResNet-152 encoder in the wetlands of the upper Mississippi River situated in La Crosse County, Wisconsin. The results showed that both models produced 88–94% training accuracy and performed better in landscapes that were occupied by smaller, disaggregated, and more equitably distributed purple loosestrife. Furthermore, the study adopted a transfer learning approach to implement a trained purple loosestrife model of the first study site and implemented it for the second study site. The results showed that the pre-trained model implementation generated better accuracy in less than half the time of the original model. Therefore, the transfer learning approach, if adapted efficiently, can be highly beneficial for continuous monitoring of purple loosestrife and strategic planning for application of direct biocontrol measures. Full article

Risks from flooding and poor water quality are evident at a range of spatial scales and climate change will exacerbate these risks in the future. Natural infrastructure (NI), consisting of structural or perennial vegetation, measures that provide multiple ecosystem benefits have the potential to reduce flood and water quality risks. In this study, we intersected watershed-scale risks to flooding and nitrate export in the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) of the central U.S. with potential locations of seven NI practices (row crop conversion, water, and sediment control basins, depressional wetlands, nitrate-removal wetlands, riparian buffers, and floodplain levees and row crop change) to prioritize where NI can be most effective for combined risk reduction at watershed scales. Spatial data from a variety of publicly-available databases were analyzed at a 10 m grid cell to locate NI practices using a geographic information system (GIS). NI practices were presented at the regional basin scale and local Iowa-Cedar watershed in eastern Iowa to show individual practice locations. A prioritization scheme was developed to show the optimal watersheds for deploying NI practices to minimize flooding and water quality risks in the MARB. Among the 84 HUC4 basins in the MARB, 28 are located in the Upper Mississippi and Ohio Rivers basins. The Wabash and Iowa-Cedar basins (HUCs 0512 and 0708, respectively) within these basins were found to rank among the uppermost quintile for nearly all practices evaluated, indicating widespread opportunities for NI implementation. Study results are a launching point from which to improve the connections between watershed scale risks and the potential use of NI practices to reduce these risks. Full article

Droughts reduce crop yields, which translates to reduced nutrient uptake or removal from the soil. Under such conditions, residual plant nutrients such as nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) can be carried over for subsequent crops. We applied the Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender (APEX) model to simulate continuous corn (Zea mays L.)/soybean (Glycine max [L.] Merr.) rotations on 3703 farm fields within the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) over a 47-year timescale: 1960 to 2006. We used the Standardized Precipitation Index (PSI) to identify the drought years between 1960 to 2006, following which we evaluated potential drought-induced carryover N and P nutrients in corn/soybean rotations relative to near normal and very to extremely wet years. Overall, drought reduced N uptake, total N losses, N mineralization and N fixation, the main driver of the soybean carryover N. Given the high cost of fertilizers and concerns over nutrient loss impacts on offsite water quality, farmers are compelled to account for every plant nutrient that is already in the soil. Information from this study could be applied to develop optimal N and P recommendations after droughts, while identification of region-wide potential reductions in N and P applications has implications for conservation efforts aimed at minimizing environmental loading and associated water quality concerns. Full article

Although rivers support significant unionid mussel (Unionida: Unionidae) diversity, Gulf of Mexico tributary rivers have been subject to changes in water quality and habitat due to altered watershed land use. We quantified mussel species richness and relative abundance and environmental factors in small tributary streams of the Pearl River, Mississippi-Louisiana. Freshwater mussel and habitat surveys were conducted at 27 stream sampling sites over two summers (9 sites revisited), and coverage of seven land use categories and seven geological categories above each reach were calculated. Mussels were patchily distributed (53% of sites sampled yielded mussels) and typically not abundant (only 26% of sites yielded >10 mussels). Surveys revealed nine species, with total abundance ranging from 0–66 mussels and richness ranging from 0–5 species per site. Assemblages were driven by an upper to lower watershed gradient of decreasing CPUE and richness, with microhabitat and water quality, land cover, and geology locally modifying this gradient. Environmental variables did not seem of sufficient magnitude to account for the patchy distributions and low abundances of mussels at most study sites, and we hypothesize that high discharge events related to tropical storm passage may have exerted an overriding influence on mussel assemblages in these streams through direct mortality and/or altered availability of suitable glochidial hosts. Full article

The ENSO impact on winter precipitation in the Southeast United States was analyzed from the perspective of daily weather types (WTs). We calculated the dynamic contribution associated with the change in frequency of the WTs and the thermodynamic contribution due to changes in the spatial patterns of the environmental fields of the WTs. Six WTs were obtained using a k-means clustering analysis of 850 hPa winds in reanalysis data from November to February of 1948–2022. All the WTs can only persist for a few days. The most frequent winter weather type is WT1 (shallow trough in Eastern U.S.), which can persist or likely transfer to WT4 (Mississippi River Valley ridge). WT1 becomes less frequent in El Niño years, while the frequency of WT4 does not change much. WTs 2–6 correspond to a loop of eastward propagating waves with troughs and ridges in the mid-latitude westerlies. Three WTs with a deep trough in the Southeast U.S., which are WT2 (east coast trough), WT3 (off east coast trough) and WT6 (plains trough), become more frequent in El Niño years. The more frequent deep troughs (WTs 2, 3 and 6) and less frequent shallow trough (WT1) result in above-normal precipitation in the coastal Southeast U.S. in the winter of El Niño years. WT5 (off coast Carolina High), with maximum precipitation extending from Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes, becomes less frequent in El Niño years, which corresponds to the below-normal precipitation from the Great Lakes to Upper Mississippi and Ohio River Valley in El Niño years, and vice versa in La Niña years. The relative contribution of the thermodynamic and dynamic contribution is location dependent. On the east coast, the two contributions are similar in magnitude. Full article

Adult bigheaded carps Hypophthalmichthys spp. have never been observed in the diets of native fishes in the Mississippi River Basin. In addition, blue catfish Ictalurus furcatus diet preference and foraging behavior have never been studied in the presence of non-native bigheaded carps in the Mississippi River system. We examined the gut contents of adult blue catfish (567–1020 mm, n = 65), captured from a Mississippi River backwater using trammel nets. All items in diets were separated and enumerated, and all fish-like diet items were genetically identified to confirm species-level ID. Bigheaded carp ages were determined by sectioning hard structures (pectoral spines, post-cleithra, and vertebrae). Adult silver carp Hypophthalmichthys molitrix (age 3–5, mean = 3.9 years, SE = 0.2; n = 21) had the highest frequency of occurrence (70%) and constituted the greatest percentage by number (58%) and weight (60%) in/of blue catfish diets. Gizzard shad Dorosoma cepedianum ranked second by all three measures (34%, 25%, and 26%). Finally, 50% to 100% of probable age-based sizes of silver carp exceeded gape measurements of blue catfish, suggesting scavenging was the dominant means of predation. More intensive sampling efforts are required to determine the system-wide importance of bigheaded carp in blue catfish diets. Full article