Search Results (1,218)

In the period 2 to 4 March 2026, two rainstorms with intense convective weather occurred within and in the vicinity of Hong Kong, China, in the early rain season of the year in southern China. This is rather uncommon because the atmosphere is still generally stable (with very low or even zero value of convective available potential energy), and upper tropospheric divergence does not yet exist in the region climatologically. The rain episode is documented in this paper from both observational and forecasting aspects. On the observational side, a low-level vortex is found on and near the surface based on Doppler velocity measurements from a newly installed C-band solid-state weather radar. Combining the three-dimensional wind field as retrieved from the weather data and the measurements from the other ground-based remote-sensing meteorological equipment, the intense convection is mainly triggered by middle to lower tropospheric waves, and the vertical circulation in the atmospheric boundary layer may be stretched vertically upward to form the low-level vortex. In the second rainstorm, features of elevated thunderstorms are also identified. On the forecasting side, a high-resolution, limited-area atmosphere–ocean–wave coupled model manages to capture the occurrence and the timing of the heavy rain. The sub-seasonal forecast by a global model also provides a useful indication of the occurrence of above-normal rainfall over southern China, with a rather special feature of a deep and stationary westerly trough located to the north of the Indochina Peninsula. The microscale cyclone could be successfully picked up by the real-time run of a high-resolution numerical weather prediction model with data assimilation. This paper also discusses the weather service aspect of this rather unusual rainstorm episode. Full article

Accurate prediction of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is crucial for understanding and anticipating global climate variability. Although deep learning (DL)-based models have recently improved ENSO forecasting skill, achieving strong predictive performance while maintaining model interpretability remains a major challenge. Existing approaches may suffer from instability or have difficulty distinguishing contributions across multiple variables and time steps. To address this issue, this study presents an interpretable ENSO forecasting framework that combines a ConvNeXt-based deep learning model, ENSO-ConvNeXt, with an improved gradient-based contribution analysis method whose calculation strategy is adjusted according to different ENSO phases. The simplified ConvNeXt architecture facilitates the integration of interpretability methods while retaining strong predictive capability. ENSO-ConvNeXt achieves competitive forecasting skill with an effective lead time exceeding 20 months, accurately capturing the Niño3.4 index evolution during the peak season and the temporal evolution of ENSO events. The case studies of representative ENSO events demonstrate that the major contribution regions identified by the model are broadly consistent with established ENSO variability patterns across major ocean basins. These results highlight the potential of our framework to advance ENSO prediction while providing statistically grounded and physically interpretable insights. Full article

Atmospheric equatorial Kelvin waves—convective disturbances that manipulate tropical wind and rainfall patterns—can propagate eastward at speeds ranging from nearly stationary to 30 m/s, with variability determined by moist processes and advection by the background wind. Current studies on Kelvin waves lack a comprehensive climatology that explains how their structure and propagation speeds change in different background states. Thus, this work builds a variable regression model that uses ERA5 reanalysis data to reconstruct Kelvin waves during different background wind shear conditions and phases of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the Pacific. Overall, Kelvin waves tend to speed up during background conditions that generate upper-tropospheric westerlies and slow down during upper-tropospheric easterlies. East Pacific Kelvin waves are faster than West Pacific Kelvin waves because of climatological westerly shear in the former and easterly shear in the latter. However, strong westerly shear over the East Pacific allows extratropical Rossby waves to impede on the Kelvin wave, while strong easterly shear over the West Pacific distorts classical Kelvin wave structure. The results provide references for weather prediction models to accurately resolve the interaction between Kelvin waves and background circulation. Full article

Global warming is reshaping the global dry–wet pattern, yet its future trajectory remains uncertain, with important implications for sustainable water resources. China, influenced by both the monsoon system and the mid-latitude westerlies, requires an integrated assessment linking net water balance (precipitation minus evaporation, PME) to moisture transport. Here we use precipitation, evaporation, and air temperature records for 1981–2023, together with Lagrangian moisture tracking and precipitation recycling diagnostics, to quantify changes in PME across China and to identify the underlying mechanisms. We further assess future evolution under different warming levels (1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3–4 °C) for 2024–2099 using a CMIP6 multi-model ensemble. China experienced a pronounced warming during the historical period, while precipitation declined overall and evaporation remained nearly stable. As a result, reduced moisture supply strengthened drought sensitivity. Spatially, warming-driven drying is concentrated in the eastern and southern monsoon regions. In contrast, the inland arid and semi-arid Northwest and parts of high-elevation transition zones show a relative shift toward warmer and wetter conditions. Moisture transport diagnostics indicate that China’s moisture supply is jointly sustained by the mid- to high-latitude westerlies and low-latitude oceanic monsoon pathways. These pathways form a continuous transition from the Northwest to the Southeast. Land–atmosphere recycling is stronger in the Southeast, whereas the Northwest depends more on imported moisture, with plateau topography further reshaping the main transport corridors. In the future, PME continues to decline under 1.5 °C warming. Under 2 °C warming, PME enters a transitional state with patchy regional patterns. Under 3–4 °C warming, PME shifts to an overall increase, but uncertainty becomes larger. These results identify a critical turning window at around 2–3 °C warming for China’s PME response, providing a physical basis for sustainable water-resource management and adaptation planning. Full article

The latest Cretaceous saw the final diversification of dinosaurs before the K/Pg extinction. Discussions of end-Cretaceous dinosaur diversity have focused on well-sampled faunas from Laurasia; far less is known about dinosaurian faunas of the Southern Hemisphere, especially Africa. The late Maastrichtian Phosphates of Morocco provide a rare window into African dinosaur diversity. Abelisaurids, lambeosaurines, and titanosaurian sauropods are known. However, no diagnostic titanosaur remains have been recovered, leaving the affinities of these sauropods unclear. We describe Phosphatotitan khouribgaensis gen. et sp. nov., a new titanosaur from the Maastrichtian of Sidi Chennane, Khouribga Province. Phosphatotitan is represented by dorsal, sacral, and caudal vertebrae, and the pelvis. The new species differs from titanosaurs described from the Cretaceous of Africa and Europe but resembles South American Lognkosauria, and especially Patagotitan, in having short dorsal and caudal centra, expanded dorsal and caudal neural spines, and a broad pubis. Its small size relative to other Lognkosauria (3.5–4 tonnes) suggests a lineage selected for small size. The close relationships of Morocco’s titanosaurs and abelisaurids to South American species may reflect a wide distribution of these clades prior to the opening of the South Atlantic and the separation of Africa and South America ~100 Ma, while a complex pattern of oceanic dispersal may explain the presence of distinct saltasauroid lineages worldwide. The latest Cretaceous Gondwanan dinosaur faunas were highly endemic due to a combination of continental fragmentation, extinction, and dispersal, creating high endemism in southern continents and within Africa, suggesting that Maastrichtian dinosaur diversity is underestimated. Full article

Sandy shorelines respond to variability in boundary conditions over a wide range of time and spatial scales. While recent studies show that climate modes may affect shoreline evolution at interannual scales, such relationships remain unclear in the South Atlantic Ocean. Here, we investigate whether climate mode-driven variability in wave climate influences shoreline evolution using Ilha Comprida, a barrier island on the southeastern Brazilian coast, as a case study. Offshore wave conditions from the ERA5 reanalysis were analyzed over the last four decades and propagated to the nearshore using wave modeling. Shoreline change was quantified from satellite-derived shoreline positions, and relationships with interannual climate modes were evaluated using climate indices. Results show that the wave climate is bimodal and dominated by swell, with strong seasonality and no significant long-term trend in storminess. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences wave energy and extremes, with La Niña phases associated with higher wave power without a change in wave direction. No significant signal of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) was found. At the coast, shoreline evolution is controlled by long-term sediment redistribution driven by alongshore transport gradients. ENSO-related shoreline signals are weak and spatially limited, occurring only in lower Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) modes of variability. These results suggest that, at Ilha Comprida, ENSO mainly modulates episodic wave-driven events rather than long-term shoreline patterns, emphasizing the need to distinguish between short-term energetic variability and longer-term morphodynamic response. This distinction is important for coastal management because even where climate modes do not produce persistent long-term shoreline trends due to site-specific aspects, they may still modulate event-scale risk, which can vary independently of the long-term average shoreline behavior. Full article

The Rio Grande Rise (RGR) is the largest oceanic plateau in the South Atlantic and represents a key natural laboratory for understanding oceanic plateau formation, deep-sea circulation, ecosystem functioning, and ferromanganese crust development. This study presents a critical synthesis of current scientific knowledge on the RGR, integrating geological, geophysical, oceanographic, biological, and geochemical evidence published over the last two decades. Geophysical data reveal a complex tectono-magmatic evolution involving Late Cretaceous plume-related volcanism, crustal thickening, rifting, and subsequent subsidence. The structural framework of the plateau is dominated by the Cruzeiro do Sul Rift, which plays a central role in controlling sedimentation, magmatism, and seawater circulation. Oceanographic studies demonstrate that the interaction between the southern branch of the South Equatorial Current and the complex topography of the RGR generates intense internal tides and bottom currents, strongly influencing sediment transport and benthic habitats. Biological investigations indicate that the RGR hosts diverse deep-sea communities, including sponge grounds, cold-water corals, and associated fauna, whose distribution is tightly linked to geomorphology and hydrodynamics. Ferromanganese crusts occurring on the plateau preserve valuable geochemical records of oceanographic and redox conditions, although their spatial distribution, thickness, and metal budgets remain incompletely constrained. Despite major advances, significant knowledge gaps persist regarding crustal structure, sedimentary evolution, ecosystem functioning, and mineral formation processes. This review highlights these uncertainties and outlines research priorities necessary to improve understanding of oceanic plateaus and deep-sea systems in the South Atlantic. Full article

The Galápagos Islands, located in the eastern equatorial Pacific approximately 1000 km west of mainland Ecuador, are highly sensitive to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. However, the mechanisms linking sea surface temperature (SST) variability to daily rainfall extremes remain poorly understood. Focusing on Santa Cruz Island, one of the main islands of the archipelago, we analyzed the response of daily rainfall to four El Niño events (1991–1992, 1997–1998, 2015–2016 and 2023–2024) and their relationship with SST spatial patterns. Our approach followed three steps: (1) Daily rainfall observations were classified using percentile thresholds; (2) SST spatial clusters were identified using Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA), which explicitly incorporates spatial autocorrelation to distinguish warm and cold SST spatial clusters; and (3) SST cluster metrics (mean temperature, spatial extent, and persistence) were extracted and related to rainfall intensification. Results show that El Niño can increase daily extreme rainfall (>P95) in frequency and in totals, with the strongest and most persistent signal during 1997–1998; in contrast, the 2015–2016 event, despite being classified as very strong by the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), exhibited a limited and short-lived >P95 rainfall response in Santa Cruz. The link between SST clusters and extreme rainfall strengthened during El Niño (r from ~0.40 to 0.70). Correspondingly, SST clusters underwent significant spatial reorganization in their extent and persistence. Contrasts were most evident in the central–southern domain, where 1997–1998 showed strong warm incursion and persistent ≥28 °C coverage, while 2015–2016 remained more spatially constrained and less coherent. The area where clusters reached mean SST ≥ 28 °C became widespread in 1997–1998 (98.55%), whereas it remained more localized in 1991–1992 (30.28%), 2015–2016 (27.02%), and 2023–2024 (26.55%) and was absent in neutral years (0%). Persistent warm-cluster coverage increased from neutral conditions (38.53%) in 1991–1992 (47.49%), 1997–1998 (53.42%), and 2023–2024 (42.97%), but was lower in 2015–2016 (34.53%). Overall, these results provide a process-oriented link between SST cluster organization and event-to-event differences in Galápagos rainfall extremes, highlighting the value of local SST metrics beyond basin-scale ENSO indices. Full article

The Pushbroom Imager for Cloud and Aerosol Research and Development (PICARD) visible through shortwave infrared imaging spectrometer was developed to carry a calibration laboratory environment to high altitudes, while also providing high-dynamic-range bright cloud-top radiance measurements across a field of view just under 50 degrees. The in-flight performance of this new spectroradiometer was validated in comparison to multiple reference data sources and targets using imagery collected aboard NASA’s ER-2 high-altitude aircraft during the Western Diversity Time Series (WDTS) airborne science campaign in April 2023 and the September 2024 Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, and ocean Ecosystem (PACE) Postlaunch Airborne eXperiment (PACE-PAX), both operating out of southern California. PICARD measurements from flights over Railroad Valley Playa, Nevada, USA, were compared to high-resolution radiance spectra of the dry lakebed provided by the Radiometric Calibration Network (RadCalNet) Working Group. Direct comparison to satellite cloud radiometry was enabled by the ER-2 flying in coordination with simultaneous overpasses of the Terra, Aqua, and NOAA-20 Earth-observing satellites during WDTS and with the PACE observatory during PACE-PAX. To account for large spectral differences between incandescent laboratory sources and solar illumination, PICARD calibration relies on measurements using the Goddard Laser for Absolute Measurements of Radiance (GLAMR) to characterize and minimize spectral stray light from the instrument’s twin Offner grating spectrometers. Good agreement in comparison to reference measurements demonstrates PICARD’s ability to provide imagery for environmental science or for testing new sensor designs and retrieval algorithms for cloud and aerosol research with verified laboratory calibrations at high altitudes. Full article

This study evaluates the performance of the state-of-the-art Alfred Wegener Institute Climate Model version 3 (AWI-CM3) in reproducing tropical cyclone (TC) genesis potential, utilizing two distinct genesis potential indices (GPIs): the Emanuel–Nolan GPI (ENGPI) and Dynamic GPI (DGPI). By comparing historical simulations against observational and reanalysis data, we demonstrate that AWI-CM3 is a high-fidelity model capable of replicating the essential climatological annual mean, seasonal cycle, and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-modulated interannual features of TC genesis (TCG) potential. However, both indices exhibit specific limitations within the simulation. Specifically, the ENGPI in AWI-CM3 systematically overestimates the magnitude of tropical cyclone-favorable conditions, primarily due to biases in simulated sea surface conditions. Specifically, the model exhibits basin-dependent SST biases, with pronounced warm biases over the WNP, ENP, NIO, SIO, and SP, contrasting with a cold bias over the NA. In contrast, while the DGPI yields a more realistic magnitude, it displays a more complex spatial bias structure. Both indices in AWI-CM3 accurately capture the seasonal cycle of TCG potential across most basins, with the notable exception of the North Indian Ocean, which reflects both the model’s challenges in representing the seasonal retreat of regional monsoon circulations and certain inherent limitations of the GPIs themselves. Furthermore, AWI-CM3 faithfully captures the interannual modulation of TCG potential by ENSO, notwithstanding some regional discrepancies. Our evaluation provides critical insights into the necessity of a cautious application of GPIs in future climate projections using climate models. Full article

An extreme rainfall event that occurred from 16 to 18 December 2021 along the coastal regions of Peninsular Malaysia (PM) caused widespread flooding and substantial socioeconomic impacts. This study investigates the mechanisms leading to this event, focusing on the roles of climatic phenomena and local terrains. Two atmospheric interactions play key roles in triggering the event. Firstly, a strong cold surge (CS) associated with the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) interacted with the easterly surge over the southern South China Sea, leading to the formation of Borneo vortex. Secondly, a strong northeasterly and CS largely contributed to enhancing and transporting the vortex towards the PM and across the Titiwangsa mountain ranges. The phase change of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) facilitated the eastward propagation of the vortex. Sumatra and PM terrains significantly modulated vortex evolution and moisture convergence over the Strait of Malacca. These findings are analyzed to shed light on interactions between large-scale climate drivers and localized terrain in generating extreme rainfall, emphasizing the necessity of multi-scale analysis for model accuracy. Full article

Northeast China, situated in the eastern Central Asian Orogenic Belt (CAOB), marks the terminal closure zone of the Paleo-Asian Ocean (PAO) (eastern segment). At present, due to extensive Quaternary cover, the structural deformation characteristics and deep structure of the Solonker Suture Zone in the east of the Nenjiang–Balihan fault remain poorly constrained, which limits our understanding of the tectonic evolution of the PAO. This study integrates deep seismic reflection (DSR) and magnetotelluric (MT) sounding profiles to investigate the crustal structural, sedimentary framework, and tectonic evolution of the oceanic and continental crusts along the western slope of the Songliao Basin. Two regional detachment surfaces (D1 and D2) were identified. The D2 interface demarcates the upper crust’s basal boundary, overlain by multiple high-amplitude monoclinic reflections. The area below the D2 interface exhibits a network structure of arcuate and variably oriented reflections, indicating a dual-layered orogenic structure. The upper crust exhibits distinct structural domains defined by strongly contrasting monoclinal reflections: north-dipping, low-resistivity zones in the southern sector and south-dipping, high-resistivity zones in the northern sector. These oppositely oriented reflections have been interpreted as marking an Early Paleozoic accretionary wedge and oceanic island arc, respectively. Interposed between these opposing structural domains, the Paleozoic to Early Mesozoic forearc basin sequences are preserved, with a pre-Middle Permian oceanic basin identified north of the study area. By integrating characteristics of seismic reflection sequences with regional geological data, this paper clarifies the processes of closure and collision at the northern margin of the PAO (Eastern Segment). Full article

In the context of global warming, compound dry-hot events (CDHEs) are intensifying in Guangdong, yet CMIP6 projections remain uncertain. This study employs CMIP6 data and the Standardized Compound Event Indicator (SCEI) to quantify CDHEs severity, applying an observational constraint approach to reduce inter-model uncertainty. The results show that, after observational constraint, uncertainties decrease by about 63% and 77% in Period I and II under SSP126 and by about 57% and 59% under SSP585, greatly improving projection robustness. CDHE risk is highest in SSP585-Period II. Future dry-hot intensification in Guangdong generally increases from north to south, with western Guangdong most strongly affected. Although CDHEs weaken in other periods, western Guangdong shows persistent aggravation. Mechanism analyses indicate that SSP585-Period I is mainly linked to cold sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the South Atlantic and waters near Australia. After correction, dry-hot conditions show a marked weakening across Guangdong, although slight intensification persists over the Leizhou Peninsula. SSP585-Period II is primarily influenced by warm SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific and South Atlantic and cold anomalies in the North Pacific. The two SSP126 periods are associated with warm SST anomalies in the South Atlantic and waters near Australia and with cold anomalies in the South Atlantic, North Pacific, and North Atlantic, respectively. After correction, CDHEs generally weaken across Guangdong, although southern and south-central areas remain relatively severe. These findings indicate that historical key SST biases can strongly influence future CDHEs projections in Guangdong by modulating large-scale atmospheric circulation, including the Pacific-South American wave train, Indian Ocean SST anomalies, and the Western North Pacific Subtropical Anticyclone. Full article

Marine energy technologies offer renewable alternatives to conventional energy sources by harnessing ocean-based resources such as wave motion, tides, temperature, and salinity gradients. They are particularly promising for coastal and island regions. This paper presents a literature-based assessment of the technical potential and limitations of these resources, with a focus on the Adriatic Sea as a model for low-energy, semi-enclosed basins. Resource availability and technological maturity are systematically reviewed. Results indicate that wave energy offers the highest regional potential, with peak annual mean wave power reachig up to 2.784 kW/m near the southern offshore regions of the Adriatic. However, current resource levels limit feasibility to down-scaled, modular installations. Tidal and thermal energy are constrained by the Adriatic’s microtidal regime and limited temperature gradients. Although still in early development, salinity gradient systems may become viable near major river mouths such as those of the Po and Neretva. In addition to technical analysis, broad environmental and socio-economic considerations are reviewed to inform responsible marine energy development. These findings help define strategic development and research priorities for marine renewables in enclosed seas and other resource-constrained marine environments. Full article

Southern India and Sri Lanka (SISL) rainfall during January–April (JFMA) exhibits strong interannual variability and is influenced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), yet the long-term evolution of this relationship and its physical drivers remain unclear. Based on multiple precipitation datasets and atmospheric reanalysis products for 1950–2024, this study reveals a pronounced strengthening of the negative correlation between JFMA-mean SISL rainfall and the Niño 3.4 index, shifting from a statistically insignificant relationship prior to the late 1970s to a more coherent association after the 1980s. This transition is accompanied by intensified ENSO-related circulation anomalies. The strengthened and westward-extended Northwest Pacific Anticyclone (NWPAC) plays a dominant role, whereas an enhanced cross-equatorial temperature gradient in the Indian Ocean contributes to a lesser extent. Composite analyses further indicate that, on average, Eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO events tend to produce stronger rainfall anomalies over SISL than Central Pacific (CP) events; however, the differences between EP and CP composites are not statistically significant, reflecting pronounced event-to-event variability, especially for CP events. These results highlight the complexity of ENSO–SISL teleconnections and underscore the importance of NWPAC as a key bridge linking Pacific SST variability to regional rainfall responses. Full article