Search Results (158)

Accurate prediction of the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of special gas cylinders is critical for industrial safety management. However, the nonlinear, strongly coupled degradation behaviors of these cylinders, combined with non-stationary and high-noise monitoring data, limit the performance of single deep learning models. Traditional hyperparameter tuning and signal processing methods often fail to meet the required prediction accuracy. To address these challenges, this study proposes a hybrid SSA–PSO–ResNet–LSTM–Attention framework for RUL prediction of special gas cylinders. The framework first applies Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) to decompose and reconstruct the 12-dimensional multi-source sensor signals, effectively suppressing noise while extracting core degradation trends. Subsequently, a ResNet–LSTM–Attention collaborative model is constructed, where ResNet ensures stable spatial feature propagation, LSTM captures long- and short-term temporal dependencies, and a multi-head attention mechanism emphasizes critical time steps associated with abrupt degradation. Furthermore, a Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm is employed to globally optimize key hyperparameters, including the number of convolutional kernels, LSTM hidden units, and learning rate, mitigating the subjectivity of manual tuning. Experimental validation is conducted on 1000 real monitoring samples from 100 composite material gas cylinders, with a cylinder ID-based 7:1:2 train–validation–test split and stratified sampling covering four operating conditions. PSO optimizes hyperparameters using the validation set RMSE as the fitness function, and the test set is exclusively used for final performance evaluation. All results are reported as the mean ± standard deviation from grouped 5-fold cross-validation on the cylinder-wise partition. The proposed model achieves a test RMSE of 71.55, MAE of 50.63, and R² of 0.9584, representing a 34.2% and 30.2% reduction in RMSE and MAE, respectively, compared with the second-best CNN-LSTM model, and significantly outperforming SVR, MLP, and other benchmark models. Ablation studies confirm the positive synergistic effect of each component, with the removal of either the attention mechanism or the ResNet module causing substantial performance degradation. By employing physically calibrated RUL labels and a balanced multi-condition dataset, the proposed framework achieves high predictive accuracy and good potential for industrial application, providing an effective solution for RUL prediction of special gas cylinders and similar high-pressure vessels, with potential applications in intelligent maintenance of complex industrial equipment. Full article

With the implementation of market-oriented electricity trading in an increasing number of countries, accurate electricity price forecasting can not only help participants in the electricity market to make more reasonable decisions but also enable regulators to have a more reliable regulatory basis. Therefore, it is necessary to propose an appropriate electricity price forecasting method. In view of the insufficiency of the traditional models in dealing with nonlinear and non-stationary data, to improve the detection ability of the model for hidden information in data and considering the high randomness of electricity price data, this paper proposes an electricity price forecasting method based on singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to decompose the original sequence and combines it with an extreme learning machine (ELM) optimized by the grey wolf optimizer (GWO). First, SSA is used to decompose the original sequence, and then the ELM is used to predict each subsequence and add them, in which the number of neurons in the hidden layer of each ELM is jointly optimized by the GWO. To verify the effectiveness of the SSA–GWO–ELM model, a total of 2106 days of electricity price data in Victoria, Australia, were selected for modeling. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the model proposed in this paper is significantly higher than that of the other comparison models, and the R² score is as high as 0.989, which is 0.017 higher than that of the suboptimal SSA–ELM. It can also maintain strong robustness and high prediction accuracy for heterogeneous data on power demand. SSA has the potential for real-time prediction, which can provide reliable data support for electricity market participants and supervisors. Full article

Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) is a tropical infectious disease transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquito and exhibits seasonal patterns with periodic increases in cases throughout the year. The control of vector-borne diseases such as DHF is very important for strengthening public health resilience against climate change, in line with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for Good Health, Well-being, and Climate Action. Therefore, this study was focused on Bogor city, which experiences high rainfall and continues to face an elevated risk of DHF. The objective was to develop a time series forecasting model to predict DHF outbreaks using Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). This is a statistical method for identifying patterns in time series data. Lunar and Solar calendars were adopted to capture seasonal patterns and determine the optimal window length for prediction. The results showed that the Lunar calendar more accurately captured local seasonal variation related to DHF risk. Moreover, the SSA model with one component and a window length of 7 achieved the best performance with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.0757. The forecast accuracy decreased with longer horizons, but the model provided reliable predictions for short-term periods (approximately 1 month, i.e., up to 4 weeks ahead), which were considered useful for planning DHF mitigation. The results emphasized that the combination of SSA with appropriate calendar systems could improve the accuracy of epidemiological predictions and support vector control policymaking in tropical regions. Full article

Objective: Single-channel EEG artifact suppression often relies on signal decomposition; however, it is not always clear how much clean EEG is recoverable from a given decomposition when component weighting is ideal. We present an oracle-based benchmark that characterises this best-case recoverability across common 1-D decomposition families under controlled EOG, EMG, and mixed contamination. This work does not propose a new denoising algorithm; rather, it isolates representation capacity from component-selection heuristics by computing an upper bound on reconstruction quality. Approach: Using EEGdenoiseNet, we constructed a synthetic benchmark of 4500 single-channel 2 s segments (125 Hz; T = 250) by mixing clean EEG with ocular (EOG) and/or cranial EMG exemplars at noise-to-signal ratios (NSRs) spanning −10 to +10 dB (floor −10 dB denotes an absent modality). We evaluated variational mode decomposition (VMD), singular spectrum analysis (SSA), discrete wavelet transform (DWT), and CEEMDAN by decomposing each mixture and reconstructing the clean EEG using a bounded nonnegative linear combination of components obtained via constrained least squares (the oracle). Main results: Under this oracle benchmark, SSA achieved the lowest reconstruction error in most tested conditions, while DWT tended to rank best in milder ocular regimes; VMD performance improved, with an increased mode count at higher computational cost. CEEMDAN exhibited higher latency dominated by ensemble settings. Significance: These results should be interpreted as decomposition-level upper bounds under controlled mixtures, not field-ready denoising performance. The benchmark provides a tool with which to compare representational recoverability across decompositions and to inform the subsequent design of practical component-selection strategies. Full article

Environmental loading is a major driver of nonlinear GNSS vertical displacements, yet its spatiotemporal heterogeneity remains insufficiently understood in regions with complex topography. In this study, we investigate the environmental loading effects on GNSS vertical motions across Southwest China using observations from a network of 66 stations. Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis were applied to extract annual signals, while component-wise RMS reduction quantified hydrological and atmospheric loading contributions. Spatial statistical analysis, cross-wavelet transform, and k-means clustering examined correlation patterns and phase hysteresis between GNSS observations and modeled loads. Results show that hydrological loading dominates seasonal vertical oscillations, but crustal responses exhibit pronounced spatial heterogeneity controlled by regional topography and hydro-climatic gradients. EOF analysis reveals a dipole pattern induced by the Hengduan Mountains’moisture-blocking effect. Atmospheric loading anomalously dominates the eastern Sichuan Basin, whereas Yunnan displays strong amplitudes with high heterogeneity due to karst hydrogeology. Phase analysis identifies three distinct regimes: a rapid elastic response on the Tibetan Plateau, (with the lag of ~20 ± 5 days, correlation coefficient R ≈ 0.65), intermediate delays in Yunnan (~60 ± 5 days, R ≈ 0.58), and pronounced hysteresis in the Sichuan Basin (~105 ± 5 days, R ≈ 0.38) linked to slow groundwater diffusion and poroelastic processes. These findings highlight the critical role of local hydrogeological dynamics in modulating GNSS vertical deformation and provide new insights for improving environmental loading corrections in complex mountainous regions. Full article

The dominant pores governing methane adsorption in coal are micropores (pore size < 2 nm). Their spatial heterogeneity can be quantitatively characterized using multifractal theory; however, the evolution patterns and mechanisms of microporous structures across different coalification degrees remain unclear. This research selected a series of coal samples from different ranks and identified the coalification degree using the maximum vitrinite reflectance (Rₒ_,max). By comprehensively employing low-temperature CO₂ adsorption experiments and multifractal analysis, the evolution patterns of the microporous structures and their multifractal spectral parameters were systematically revealed, and the underlying control mechanisms were explored. Results indicate that micropore volume (PV) and specific surface area (SSA) first exhibit a decrease and then increase as Rₒ_,max increases, with the trough occurring during the second coalification jump at Rₒ_,max = 1.2–1.4%. The pore sizes exhibit bimodal distributions, with the primary peak occurring in the range of 0.45–0.65 nm and the secondary peak occurring in the range of 0.8–0.9 nm. All microporous structures possess pronounced multifractal characteristics. The generalized dimension spectrum width (ΔD) and singularity spectrum width (Δα) exhibit an increasing–decreasing–increasing trend with Rₒ_,max, whereas the Hurst exponent (H) follows an inverted parabolic curve, first increases then decreases. This contrasts with the trends in PV and SSA, indicating that the evolution of pore-space heterogeneity and connectivity is independent of and lags the changes in micropore quantity. These patterns are governed by a structural phase transition within the coal macromolecular network. Marked by the second coalification jump, the microporous system shifts from a flexible degradation–polycondensation paradigm to a rigid ordering–construction paradigm. This transition drives the asynchronous, synergistic evolutions of pore quantity, spatial heterogeneity (ΔD and Δα), and topological connectivity (H). This research provides a theoretical basis for quantitatively evaluating pore heterogeneity in coal reservoirs. Full article

Cracks in planetary gearbox casings generate additional vibration responses, which may be used for monitoring structural degradations. This paper provides a signal processing framework to effectively track casing crack-related features in planetary gearboxes using the carrier synchronous signal average (C-SSA). The proposed algorithm is based on processing the hunting-tooth synchronous signal average (H-SSA) to extract the C-SSA which contains the cyclic interaction between the gear loadings and the corresponding casing response. The root mean square (RMS) of the C-SSA signal can then serve as a health condition indicator (CI) to track crack propagation. Further enhancement can be achieved by applying the Hilbert transform (HT) on the C-SSA using the full bandwidth to derive squared envelope signal, which enhances the trending capability. To remove cyclic temperature influences observed in the trends, singular spectrum analysis technique (SSAT) has been used to ensure that the trend reflects the changes purely due to the damage progression. Experiments using three casing-mounted sensors show good capability to track crack progression. Tests under 100%, 125%, and 150% load levels show consistent performance across these operating conditions, with better results seen at higher loads. The results demonstrate that C-SSA and its squared envelope signal effectively enhance the sensitivity and reliability of vibration-based casing crack detection, providing a practical tool for long-term structural health monitoring of planetary gearboxes. Full article

(1) Background: Electroencephalography (EEG) is widely used to monitor the depth of anesthesia; however, conventional Fourier-based analyses are limited in their ability to characterize non-stationary anesthetic-induced EEG dynamics. In this study, we investigated the utility of singular spectrum analysis (SSA) combined with the Hilbert transform for extracting physiologically meaningful EEG features under sevoflurane general anesthesia. (2) Methods: Frontal EEG data from ten patients undergoing sevoflurane anesthesia were analyzed from the maintenance phase through emergence. Using SSA, short EEG segments were decomposed into six intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) without pre-specified basis functions or frequency bands. Hilbert spectral analysis was applied to each IMF to obtain instantaneous frequency and amplitude characteristics. (3) Results: The SSA-based decomposition clearly captured phase-dependent EEG changes, including α spindle activity during maintenance and increasing high-frequency components preceding emergence. Multiple linear regression models incorporating IMF center frequencies and total power demonstrated strong correlations with the bispectral index (BIS), achieving high predictive accuracy (R² = 0.88, MAE < 4). Compared with conventional spectral approaches, SSA provided superior temporal resolution and stable feature extraction for non-stationary EEG signals. (4) Conclusions: These findings indicate that SSA combined with Hilbert analysis is a robust framework for quantitative EEG analysis during general anesthesia and may enhance real-time, individualized assessments of anesthetic depth. Full article

Aim: Stock price prediction remains a highly challenging task due to the complex and nonlinear nature of financial time series data. While deep learning (DL) has shown promise in capturing these nonlinear patterns, its effectiveness is often hindered by the low signal-to-noise ratio inherent in market data. This study aims to enhance the stock predictive performance and trading outcomes by integrating Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) with deep learning models for stock price forecasting and strategy development on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX)50 index. Method: The proposed framework begins by applying SSA to decompose raw stock price time series into interpretable components, effectively isolating meaningful trends and eliminating noise. The denoised sequences are then used to train a suite of deep learning architectures, including Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and hybrid CNN-LSTM models. These models are evaluated based on their forecasting accuracy and the profitability of the trading strategies derived from their predictions. Results: Experimental results demonstrated that the SSA-DL framework significantly improved the prediction accuracy and trading performance compared to baseline DL models trained on raw data. The best-performing model, SSA-CNN-LSTM, achieved a Sharpe Ratio of 1.88 and a return on investment (ROI) of 67%, indicating robust risk-adjusted returns and effective exploitation of the underlying market conditions. Conclusions: The integration of Singular Spectrum Analysis with deep learning offers a powerful approach to stock price prediction in noisy financial environments. By denoising input data prior to model training, the SSA-DL framework enhanced signal clarity, improved forecast reliability, and enabled the construction of profitable trading strategies. These findings suggested a strong potential for SSA-based preprocessing in financial time series modeling. Full article

This study applies spectral analysis and singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to mean annual runoff of the Dniester River for 1950–2024 to identify dominant periodic components governing the hydrological regime of this transboundary basin shared by Ukraine and Moldova. The novelty lies in a basin-specific integration in the first systematic application of a combined spectral–SSA framework to the Dniester River, enabling consistent characterization of runoff variability and assessment of large-scale natural drivers. Time series from three gauging stations are analysed to develop data-driven runoff models and medium-term forecasts. Four stable groups of periodic variability are identified, with characteristic timescales of approximately 30, 11, 3–5.8, and 2 years, corresponding to major atmospheric–oceanic oscillations (AMO, NAO, PDO, ENSO, QBO) and the 11-year solar cycle. Cross-spectral and coherence analyses reveal a statistically significant relationship between solar activity and river discharge, with an estimated lag of about 2 years. SSA reconstructions explain more than 80% of discharge variance, indicating high model reliability. Forecast comparisons show that spectral methods tend to amplify long-term trends, CNN–LSTM models produce conservative trajectories, while a hybrid ensemble approach provides the most balanced and physically interpretable projections. Ensemble forecasts indicate reduced runoff during 2025–2028, followed by recovery in 2029–2034, supporting long-term water-resources planning and climate adaptation. Full article

Extreme weather conditions, specifically typhoons and strong gusts, create a highly transient environment for wind power data collection, leading to performance degradation that significantly impacts the safety and stability of the wind power system. To accurately predict wind power trends under these conditions, this paper proposes a prediction model integrating Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), and a global average pooling layer, combined with inverse adaptive transfer learning. First, SSA is applied to reduce noise in the collected wind power operation data and extract key information. Subsequently, a prediction model is constructed based on TCN, CNN, and global average pooling. The model employs dilated causal convolutions to capture long-term dependencies and uses two-dimensional convolution kernels to extract local mutation features. Furthermore, a domain-adaptive transfer learning module is designed to adjust the model’s parameter weights via backward optimization based on the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) between the source and target domains. Experimental validation is conducted using real-world wind power operation data from a wind farm in Guangxi, containing 3000 samples sampled at 10 min intervals specifically during severe typhoon periods. Experimental results demonstrate that even with only 60% of the target data, the proposed method outperforms the traditional TCN neural network, reducing the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) by 58.1% and improving the Coefficient of Determination (R²) by 32.7%, thereby verifying its effectiveness in data-scarce extreme scenarios. Full article

Based on GRACE RL06 data, this study reconstructs a monthly Terrestrial Water Storage Anomaly (TWSA) series in Shandong Province (2003–2024) using Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and derives Groundwater Storage Anomaly (GWSA) via the water balance equation. The spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of GWSA were systematically examined, and the relative contributions of climatic factors and human activities to groundwater storage changes were quantitatively assessed, with the aim of contributing to the development, utilization, and protection of groundwater in Shandong Province. The results indicate that temporally, GWSA in Shandong Province exhibited a statistically significant decreasing trend at a rate of −8.45 mm/a (p < 0.01). The maximum GWSA value of 17.15 mm was recorded in 2006, while the Mann–Kendall abrupt change-point analysis identified 2013 as a significant transition point. Following this abrupt change, GWSA demonstrated a persistent decline, reaching the minimum annual average of −225.78 mm in 2020. Although moderate recovery was observed after 2020, GWSA values remained substantially lower than those in the pre-abrupt change period. Seasonal analysis revealed a distinct “higher in autumn and lower in spring” pattern, with the most pronounced fluctuations occurring in summer and the most stable conditions in winter. Spatially, approximately 99.1% of the study area showed significant decreasing trends, displaying a clear east–west gradient with more severe depletion in inland regions compared to relatively stable coastal areas. Crucially, human activities emerged as the dominant driving factor, with an average contribution rate of 86.11% during 2003–2024. The areal proportion where human activities served as the decisive factor (contribution rate > 80%) increased dramatically to 99.58%. Furthermore, the impact of human activities demonstrated bidirectional characteristics, transitioning from negative influences during the depletion phase to positive contributions promoting groundwater recovery in recent years. At present, the GWSA in Shandong Province is expected to continue declining in the future, with an overall downward trend. Countermeasures must be implemented promptly. Full article

As an important marginal sea in the western Pacific, sea-level changes in the South China Sea not only respond to global warming but are also regulated by regional ocean dynamics and climate modes, exerting profound impacts on the socioeconomic development and engineering safety of coastal regions. To address the widespread issues of low accuracy and robustness in existing sea-level prediction models when handling nonlinear, multi-scale sequences, as well as the complexity of sea-level change mechanisms in the South China Sea, this study constructs a hybrid model combining Singular Spectrum Analysis and Long Short-Term Memory neural networks (SSA-LSTM). The coral skeletal oxygen isotope ratio (δ¹⁸O) used in this study is a key indicator for characterizing the marine environment, defined as the per mille difference in the ¹⁸O/¹⁶O ratio of a sample relative to a standard. Based on coral δ¹⁸O data from the South China Sea, the sea level from 1850 to 2015 is reconstructed. SSA is then applied to decompose the sea-level data into trend and periodic components. The trend component, accounting for 37.03%, and components 2 to 11, containing major periodic information, are extracted to reconstruct the sea-level series. The reconstructed series retains 95.89% of the original information. The trend component is modeled through curve fitting, while the periodic components are modeled using an LSTM neural network. Optimal hyperparameters for the LSTM are determined through parameter sensitivity analysis. An integrated SSA-LSTM model is constructed to predict sea level in the South China Sea, and its predictions are compared with those from a Singular Spectrum Analysis-Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SSA-ARIMA) model. The results indicate that from 1850 to 2015, sea level in the South China Sea exhibits periodic fluctuations with a significant overall upward trend. Specifically, the growth rate from 1921 to 1940 reaches 5.49 mm/yr. Predictions from the SSA-LSTM model are significantly higher than those from the SSA-ARIMA model. The SSA-LSTM model projects that from 2016 to 2035, sea level in the South China Sea will continue to rise at a fluctuating rate of 0.75 mm/yr, with a cumulative rise of approximately 15 mm. This study provides a novel methodology for investigating the mechanisms of sea-level change in the South China Sea and offers a scientific basis for coastal risk management. Full article

Ozone density at cold-point mesopause (O3-CPM) can provide information on long-term atmospheric trends. Compared to ground-level ozone, O3-CPM is not only adversely affected by chemical substances emitted from human activities but is also regulated by solar radiation. Therefore, an accurate prediction of O3-CPM is necessary. However, it is difficult for traditional forecasting methods to predict the main trends and seasonal characteristics of ozone time series while capturing the random components and noise of O3-CPM. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of O3-CPM, this paper proposes a hybrid SSA-SARIMA-GSVR model based on the Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) method, which combines the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (SARIMA) and the Gray Wolf Algorithm Optimized Support Vector Regression Algorithm (GSVR). First, the O3-CPM sequence is decomposed using SSA, and the concept of reconstruction threshold (RT) is introduced to categorize the decomposed singular values into two classes. The categorized RT reconstructed sequences containing periodic features and major trends are fed into the SARIMA model for prediction, and the N-RT reconstructed sequences (original sequence N minus RT reconstructed sequence) containing stochastic components and nonlinear features are fed into the GSVR model for prediction. The final prediction results are obtained by superimposing the outputs of these two models. The results confirm that, compared to various commonly used time series forecasting models such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Informer, SVR, SARIMA, GSVR, SSA-GSVR, and SSA-SARIMA models, the proposed SSA-SARIMA-GSVR hybrid prediction model has the lowest error evaluation metrics, enabling accurate and efficient prediction of the O3-CPM time series. Specifically, the proposed model achieved an RMSE of 0.26, MAE of 0.212, and R² of 0.987 on the test set, outperforming the best baseline model (SARIMA) by 45.8%, 42.1%, and 3.1%, respectively. Full article

Coal-free zones, particularly scouring zones, reduce recoverable reserves and increase water inrush risk in coal mining. Existing sedimentological, geophysical, and geostatistical methods are often constrained by coring conditions, lithological interpretation accuracy, and geological complexity. Given that well log signals provide the most continuous carriers of geological information, this study integrates Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis (MESA), and Integrated Prediction Error Filter Analysis (INPEFA) to establish a multi-curve framework for analyzing the genesis and logging responses of coal-free zones. A two-stage SSA workflow was applied for noise reduction, and a Trend–Fluctuation Composite (TFC) curve was constructed to enhance depositional rhythm detection. The minimum singular value order (N), naturally derived from SSA-decomposed INPEFA curves, emerged as a quantitative indicator of mine water inrush risk. The results indicate that coal-free zones resulted from inhibited peat-swamp development followed by fluvial scouring and are characterized by dense inflection points and frequent cyclic fluctuations in TFC curves, together with the absence of low anomalies in natural gamma-ray logs. By integrating multi-curve logs, core data, and in-mine three-dimensional direct-current resistivity surveys, the genetic mechanisms and boundaries of coal-free zones were effectively delineated. The proposed framework enhances logging-based stratigraphic interpretation and provides practical support for working face layout and mine water hazard prevention. Full article