Search Results (15)

Vegetation phenology (VP) is a crucial biological indicator for monitoring terrestrial ecosystems and global climate change. However, VP monitoring using traditional remote sensing vegetation indices has significant limitations in precise analysis. Furthermore, most studies have overlooked the distinction between stable and short-term VP in relation to climate change and have failed to clearly identify the seasonal variation in the impact of climatic factors on stable VP (SVP). This study compared the accuracy of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) and three traditional vegetation indices (e.g., Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) for estimating SVP in China, using ground-based data for validation. Additionally, this study employs Sen’s slope, the Mann–Kendall (MK) test, and the Hurst index to reveal the spatiotemporal evolution of the Start of Season (SOS), End of Season (EOS), and Length of Growing Season (LOS) over the past two decades. Partial correlation analysis and random forest importance evaluation are used to accurately identify the key climatic drivers of SVP across different climate zones and to assess the seasonal contributions of climate to SVP. The results indicate that (1) phenological metrics derived from SIF data showed the strongest correlation coefficients with ground-based observations, with all correlation coefficients (R) exceeding 0.69 and an average of 0.75. (2) The spatial distribution of SVP in China has revealed three primary spatial patterns: the Tibetan Plateau, and regions north and south of the Qinling–Huaihe Line. From arid, cold-to-warm, and humid regions, the rate of SOS advancement gradually increases; EOS transitions from earlier to nearly unchanged; and the rate of LOS delay increases accordingly. (3) The spring climate primarily drives the advancement of SOS across China, contributing up to 70%, with temperatures generally having a negative effect on SOS (r = −0.53, p < 0.05). In contrast, EOS is regulated and more complex, with the vapor pressure deficit exerting a dual ‘limitation–promotion’ effect in autumn (r = −0.39, p < 0.05) and summer (r = 0.77, p < 0.05). This study contributes to a deeper scientific understanding of the interannual variability in SVP under seasonal climate change. Full article

Zhejiang Province, a pivotal economically developed region within China’s Yangtze River Delta, requires systematic investigation of spatiotemporal vegetation dynamics and their drivers to formulate targeted ecological protection policies and optimize vegetation restoration strategies. Utilizing the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, this study applied the Kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (kNDVI) to assess vegetation responses to climate variability and human activities in Zhejiang Province from 2000 to 2022. Analytical methods included simple linear regression, Theil Sen trend analysis (Sen), Mann Kendall test (MK), Hurst index, partial correlation analysis, and correlation analysis. The results show: (1) The kNDVI exhibited a significant upward trend (0.001/year), covering 61.5% of the province. The Hurst index analysis revealed that 69.1% of vegetation changes exhibited anti-sustainability characteristics, with future vegetation degradation areas (56.4%) projected to exceed improvement areas (28.1%). (2) Human activities (57.11%) contributed more to kNDVI changes than climate change (42.89%). (3) Against the backdrop of climate change, kNDVI demonstrated a positive partial correlation with temperature (coefficient: 0.44) but exhibited a negative correlation with precipitation (coefficient: −0.056), confirming temperature as the dominant climatic driver. Overall, vegetation dynamics in Zhejiang Province from 2000 to 2022 were jointly driven by climate change and human activities. Full article

The Tarim River Basin (TRB) in Northwest China has an extremely fragile ecological environment that is highly sensitive to climate change. Understanding the long-term change dynamics of vegetation coverage in this arid zone is critically important for predicting future trends as well as for improving regional ecological protection and soil and water conservation measures. Based on NDVI data from 2000 to 2022, a temporal and spatial analysis of vegetation coverage in the TRB is carried out using the pixel dichotomy model, Sen trend analysis, the MK test, the Hurst index, and correlation analysis. The results reveal the following: (1) from 2000 to 2022, the vegetation coverage shows a fluctuating increasing trend, with decreases in extremely low and low coverage areas and increases in high and medium coverage areas. Extremely low vegetation coverage accounts for 46.89% of the study area. (2) Throughout the 23-year period, the change trend of vegetation cover essentially remains stable. The proportion of the improved area is greater than that of the degraded area, accounting for 66.49% and 27.93%, respectively, and there is significant fluctuation variation, accounting for 29.99%. Further, there is high variation in vegetation cover as well as high ecological environment vulnerability. The future area of continuous improvement accounts for 31.64%, which is larger than that of continuous degradation (27.17%), and the area of uncertainty accounts for 41.18%, which is strongly random. (3) The distance between land use and the closest river is the main limiting factor of vegetation cover change in the five studied sub-regions of the TRB. The highest explanatory power of the combined factor of land use and precipitation is 0.723. With a correlation Q value above 0.6, the interaction between land use type and natural factors (e.g., temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, distance from the river, etc.) is significant. This study is helpful to predict the trend of vegetation change in the TRB, and provides a scientific basis for regional ecological protection, soil and water conservation, and land use planning. Full article

The Yellow River Basin is rich in coal resources, but the ecological environment is fragile, and the ecological degradation of vegetation is exacerbated by the disruption caused by high-intensity mining activities. Analyzing the dynamic evolution of vegetation in the Henan section of the Yellow River Basin and its mining areas over the long term run reveals the regional ecological environment and offers a scientific foundation for the region’s sustainable development. In this study, we obtained a long time series of Landsat imageries from 1987 to 2023 on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform and utilized geographically weighted regression models, Sen (Theil–Sen median) trend analysis, M-K (Mann–Kendall) test, coefficient of variation (CV), and the Hurst index to investigate the evolution of vegetation cover based on the kNDVI (the normalized difference vegetation index). This index is used to explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of vegetation cover and its future development trend. Our results showed that (1) The kNDVI value in the Henan section of the Yellow River Basin exhibited a trend of fluctuating upward at a rate of 0.0509/10a from 1987 to 2023. The kNDVI trend in the mining areas of the region aligned closely with the overall trend of the Henan section; however, the annual kNDVI in each mining area consistently remained lower than that of the Henan section and displayed a degree of fluctuation, predominantly characterized by medium–high variability, with areas of moderate and high fluctuations accounting for 73.5% of the total. (2) The kNDVI in the study area showed a significant improvement in vegetation cover and its future development trends. We detected a significant improvement in the kNDVI index in the area; yet, significant improvement in this index in the future might cause vegetation degradation in 87% of the study area, which may be closely related to multiple factors such as the intensity of mining at the mine site, anthropogenic disturbances, and climate change. (3) The vegetation status of the Henan section of the Yellow River Basin shows a significant positive correlation with distance from mining areas, accounting for 90.9% of the total, indicating that mining has a strong impact on vegetation cover. This study provides a scientific basis for vegetation restoration, green development of mineral resources, and sustainable development in the Henan section of the Yellow River Basin. Full article

Based on monthly MODIS EVI and LAI data from 2001 to 2020, combined with the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), this study employs Theil–Sen trend analysis, Mann–Kendall (MK) test, Hurst index analysis, and correlation analysis to comparatively analyze the overall vegetation trends, spatial distribution characteristics, and future trends of different vegetation types in Guizhou Province under varying slope conditions. The study also explores the response of vegetation to SPEI at different time scales across different slopes. The results indicate the following: (1) From 2001 to 2020, the average values of EVI (0.34%/a) and LAI (1.4%/a) during the growing season exhibited an increasing trend, with the improved vegetation areas primarily concentrated in the western region of Guizhou, while the degradation areas were mainly located in the central and eastern regions. (2) Under different slope conditions, EVI generally showed slight improvement, while LAI exhibited significant improvement, with dry-lands experiencing the largest changes. Future trends indicate continuous improvement, but the proportion of vegetation improvement area decreases with increasing slope. When the slope is less than 5°, the proportion of vegetation improvement area is the highest. (3) The positive correlation between EVI, LAI, and SPEI at different time scales is stronger than the negative correlation, with the strongest correlations observed when the slope is less than 5°. When the slope exceeds 35°, the relationship between vegetation and drought response is almost unaffected by the slope. These findings provide a scientific basis for vegetation growth monitoring and the study of climate change and vegetation interactions in Guizhou Province. Full article

As urbanization advances, the issue of urban heat islands (UHIs) grows increasingly serious, with UHIs gradually transitioning into regional urban heat islands. There is still a lack of research on the evolution and drivers of the thermal environment in urban agglomerations; therefore, in this study, we used trend analysis methods and spatial statistical analysis tools to investigate these issues in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration. The results demonstrated the following: (1) The land surface temperature (LST) exhibited low fluctuation, while the relative land surface temperature (RLST) fluctuated significantly. In Zhangjiakou and Chengde, the LST and RLST evolution trends were complex, and the results differed between daytime and nighttime, as well as between the annual and seasonal scales. In other regions, the trends of LST and RLST evolution were more obvious. (2) During the daytime, the high UHI clusters centered on “BJ–TJ–LF” and “SJZ–XT–HD” formed gradually; during the nighttime, the high UHI clusters were mainly observed in built-up areas. The distribution range and direction of UHIs showed greater degrees of evolution during the daytime in summer. (3) The total UHI area showed an increasing trend, and the intensity of heat stress suffered by the BTH agglomeration was increasing. (4) In BTH and Hebei, aerosol optical depth, surface solar radiation, population density, and gross domestic product were the dominant factors influencing UHIs; moreover, in Beijing and Tianjin, all factors showed an basically equal impact. The methodology and findings of this study hold significant implications for guiding urban construction, optimizing urban structure, and improving urban thermal comfort in the BTH urban agglomeration. Full article

One essential part of transportation infrastructure is highways. The surrounding eco-environment is greatly impacted by the construction of highways. However, few studies have investigated changes in eco-environmental quality during highway construction, and the main impact areas of the construction have not been clarified. The highway from Sunit Right Banner to Huade (Inner Mongolia–Hebei border) was used as the study area. GEE was used to establish RSEI. During highway construction, Sen + M-K trend analysis, Hurst analysis, and Geodetector were employed to assess RSEI changes and driving factors. The results show the following: (1) An area of 1500 m around the highway is where the ecological impact of highway construction will be the greatest. (2) The curve of the annual mean of the RSEI from 2016 to 2021 is V-shaped. From northwest to southeast, there is an increasing trend in spatial distribution. (3) The largest environmental degradation during highway construction occurred during the first year of highway construction. (4) The factor detector results indicate that DEM, precipitation, distance from the administrative district, and FVC were the main RSEI drivers in the research region. The interaction detector’s findings show that the drivers’ combined influence on the RSEI was greater than that of their individual components. (5) Compared to the 2016–2021 trend, the proportion of future degraded areas in terms of eco-environmental quality will increase by 3.16%, while the proportion of improved areas will decrease by 2.99%. Full article

As a major grain-producing province in China’s Central Plains, Henan Province is severely impacted by drought, making the study of agricultural drought characteristics in the region crucial. Theil–Sen (Sen) trend analysis, the Mann–Kendall (M-K) test and the Hurst index method were used to systematically analyze the spatial variation characteristics of agricultural drought based on the Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI). The results show that: (1) The drought occurs in central, northwestern and southern Henan on an annual scale. The drought situation will continue to increase in northern, eastern northeastern and central Henan. (2) The drought in spring, summer and winter showed an increasing trend, but the opposite trend was observed in autumn. The increasing trend of drought in each season is mainly distributed in northern, central and eastern Henan. (3) The drought in January, February, April, July, September and December showed an increasing trend, while the drought in the other 6 months showed a decreasing trend. The increase in drought during July and August was not pronounced, while the drought situation in September remained largely unchanged. The distribution of drought across the other months exhibited varying patterns across different regions. Overall, the drought trend in Henan Province is on the rise, displaying distinct seasonal and regional patterns in its temporal and spatial distribution. The results can provide a reference for Henan Province to formulate effective measures of drought resistance and disaster reduction to ensure grain production. Full article

Ecosystems in arid areas are under pressure from human activities and the natural environment. Long-term monitoring and evaluation of arid ecosystems are essential for achieving the goal of sustainable development. The Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (Xinjiang) is a typical arid region located in Northwest China with a relatively sensitive ecosystem. Under the support of the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud platform’s massive data collection, the remote sensing ecological index (RSEI) from 2000 to 2020, both in summer and spring, is established, and the variation trend of the ecological quality in Xinjiang is evaluated by coefficient of variation (CV), Sen’s slope analysis, Mann–Kendall trend test (M–K test) and Hurst index. In addition, a partial correlation analysis is processed between RSEI and selected climatic factors, including precipitation and temperature, to find out the mode of correlation between ecological quality and the natural climate. In the last two decades the following has become apparent: (1) The RSEI values of Xinjiang have been relatively low and unstable both in summer and spring, with a trend toward increasing; (2) The distribution characteristics of RSEI levels both in summer and spring have been similar; low levels were concentrated in the desert and wilderness, while high levels were concentrated around the oasis; (3) The ecological quality in Xinjiang has been relatively stable, with a trend of sustained increase both in summer and spring. There was also a small area of sustained decrease around the Junggar Basin and Turpan Basin in summer and a small area of significant decrease in the center of the Taklamakan Desert in spring; (4) In summer, the precipitation has obviously positively correlated in the Southwest. The temperature has obviously positively correlated in the northwestern part; in spring, the precipitation has obviously positively correlated in the Western part; the temperature has obviously positively correlated in the oasis around the Yili River Basin and Tarim Basin. Full article

Land degradation destroys human habitats, and vegetation is a marker reflecting land degradation. In this article, the Balochistan Province of Pakistan, which has a fragile ecological environment, was selected as a typical case to analyze its land degradation over 21 years. Relevant studies that used the NDVI and remote sensing data to monitor land degradation already existed. Based on the data product of MODIS, this study obtained the spatio-temporal trends of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) changes from 2000 to 2020 using the sen+ Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Hurst index and analyzed the driving factors of land degradation and restoration by employing the multiple stepwise regression method. The residual analysis method was an effective tool for distinguishing between anthropogenic and climatic impacts, given that not all regions have a significant correlation between the NDVI and rainfall. The main climatic drivers of the NDVI were derived based on the Geodetector analysis and stripped of the main climatic factors by residual analysis to explore the influence of anthropogenic factors on the NDVI. The results show the following: (1) Balochistan is dominated by land restoration. Land restoration is mainly dominated by climate as well as both climate and human factors, and land degradation is mainly dominated by climate and human factors. (2) The Geodetector-based study found high correlations between the NDVI and TMP, MAP, AET and PET, complementing most previous residual analyses that considered only precipitation and temperature. In Balochistan, TMP, AET, PET and MAP were the dominant climatic factors affecting the spatial distribution of the NDVI; TMP with MAP and TMP with AET were the main interactive factors in the spatial distribution of the NDVI. (3) The article quantifies the impact of the anthropogenic drivers on land degradation. Human activities positively influenced the NDVI in 91.02% of the area and negatively influenced it in 8.98% of the area. (4) The overall trend of the NDVI was mainly stable, with stronger improvement than degradation, and showed strong persistence. The above findings enrich our understanding of the climatic impacts of land degradation and human impacts in arid or semi-arid regions and provide a scientific basis for ecological engineering to achieve ecological conservation and quality development in Balochistan, Pakistan. Full article

Vegetation is the main body of the terrestrial ecosystem and is a significant indicator of environmental changes in the regional ecosystem. As an essential link connecting South Asia and Southeast Asia, the Lancang-Mekong River Basin(LMRB) can provide essential data support and a decision-making basis for the assessment of terrestrial ecosystem environmental changes and the research and management of hydrology and water resources in the basin by monitoring changes in its vegetation cover. This study takes the Lancang-Mekong River Basin as the study area, and employs the Sen slope estimation, Mann–Kendall test, and Hurst exponent based on the MODIS NDVI data from 2000 to 2021 to study the spatial and temporal evolution trend and future sustainability of its NDVI. Besides, the nonlinear characteristics such as mutation type and mutation year are detected and analyzed using the BFAST01 method. Results demonstrated that: (1) In the past 22 years, the NDVI of the Lancang-Mekong River Basin generally exhibited a fluctuating upward trend, and the NDVI value in 2021 was the largest, which was 0.825, showing an increase of 4.29% compared with 2000. However, the increase rate was different: China has the most considerable NDVI growth rate of 7.25%, followed by Thailand with an increase of 7.21%, Myanmar and Laos as the third, while Cambodia and Vietnam have relatively stable vegetation changes. The overall performance of NDVI is high in the south and low in the north, and is dominated by high and relatively high vegetation coverage, of which the area with vegetation coverage exceeding 0.8 accounts for 62%. (2) The Sen-MK trend showed that from 2000 to 2021, the area where the vegetation coverage in the basin showed a trend of increase and decrease accounted for 66.59% and 18.88%, respectively. The Hurst exponent indicated that the areas where NDVI will continue to increase, decrease, and remain unchanged in the future account for 60.14%, 25.29%, and 14.53%, respectively, and the future development trend of NDVI is uncertain, accounting for 0.04%. Thus, more attention should be paid to areas with a descending future development trend. (3) BFAST01 detected eight NDVI mutation types in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin over the past 22 years. The mutations mainly occurred in 2002–2018, while 2002–2004 and 2014–2018 were the most frequent periods of breakpoints. The mutation type of “interruption: increase with negative break” was changed the most during this period, which accounts for 36.54%, and the smallest was “monotonic decrease (with negative break)”, which only accounts for 0.65%. This research demonstrates that combining the conventional trend analysis method with the BFAST mutation test can more accurately analyze the spatiotemporal variation and nonlinear mutation of NDVI, thus providing a scientific reference to develop ecological environment-related work. Full article

The foundation of study on regional environmental carrying capacity is the detection of vegetation changes. A case of Northeast China, we, with the support of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) of MOD13A3 (MOD13A3-NDVI), use a three-dimensional vegetation cover model (3DFVC) to acquire vegetation cover from 2000 to 2021. Vegetation trends are then monitored by the spatio-temporal analysis models including the empirical orthogonal function (EOF), the Sen’s slope (Sen), the Mann-Kendall test (MK) and the Hurst index (Hurst). Additionally, we, through the multi-scale geographically weighted regression model (MGWR), explore the spatial heterogeneity of vegetation response to its influencing factors. On the basis of this, it is by introducing the structural equation model (SEM) that we figure out the mechanisms of vegetation response to climate and human activity. The main results are as follows: (1) Compared with the dimidiate pixel model (FVC), 3DFVC, to some extent, weaken the influence of terrain on vegetation cover extraction with a good applicability. (2) From 2000 to 2021, the average annual vegetation cover has a fluctuating upward trend (0.03·22a${}^{-1}$, p < 0.05), and spatially vegetation cover is lower in the west and higher in the east with a strong climatic zoning feature. In general, vegetation cover is relatively stable, only 7.08% of the vegetation area with a trend of significant change. (3) In terms of EOF (EOF${}_1$+EOF${}_2$), EOF${}_1$ has a strong spatial heterogeneity but EOF${}_2$ has a strong temporal heterogeneity. As for the Hurst index, its mean value, with an anti-persistence feature, is 0.451, illustrating that vegetation is at some risk of degradation in future. (4) MGWR is slightly better than GWR. Vegetation growth is more influenced by the climate (precipitation and temperature) or human activity and less by the terrain or soil. Besides, precipitation plays a leading role on vegetation growth, while temperature plays a moderating role on vegetation growth. What is more, precipitation, on different temperature conditions, shows a different effect on vegetation growth. Full article

With continuous urbanization, human activities have left considerable impacts on the ecology. Therefore, it is necessary to perform timely and objective monitoring and evaluation of the ecology. With the basin of three highland lakes (Fuxian Lake, Xinyun Lake, and Qilu Lake) in Yunnan Province as the study case, four indices, i.e., the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Wet Index (WET), the Normalized Differential Build-Up And Bare Soil Index (NDBSI), and the Land Surface Temperature (LST), which indicate, respectively, greenness, humidity, dryness, and heat of the study area, were extracted. On the basis of five sets of terrestrial images of the areas around the three lakes from 2001 to 2021, principal component analysis (PCA) was performed on these four indices; the more informative principal component contribution was selected as the weight to establish a remote sensing ecological index (RSEI) evaluation model to evaluate the ecological environment quality of the study area; the Mann–Kendall test combined with Sen’s slope (Sen + MK) and the Hurst exponent were employed to explore the ecological conditions and development trends of the “three-lake” basin. The results showed that the ecological quality of the study area improved and then deteriorated from 2001 to 2021. The ecological quality classes in the study area were fair, medium, and good. The ecological quality has been greatly improved, but poor ecological quality was still observed in some regions such as Chengjiang. Eighty-eight percent of the study area witnessed a stable trend in the ecological quality over the 20 years; in 2021, the area of built-up land with fair and poor ecological quality reached 140.97 km², which occupies 68.1% of the total area under the same land use type. Analysis shows that urban area expansion and human activities have exacerbated ecological problems of towns and built-up land in the study area. In the selected indicators, both greenness and humidity are positive indicators to ecological quality, and the R² value of the two in 5-year regression was both greater than 0.99, which validated the reliability of the selected model indicators. The research findings are expected to provide a basis for scientific ecological planning and restoration of lake basins. Full article

The spatiotemporal change characteristics of Cultivated Land Productivity (CLP) are imperative for ensuring regional food security, especially given recent global warming, social development and population growth. Based on the hypothesis that the Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) is a proxy of land productivity, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data with 500-m spatial resolution and 8-day temporal resolution was employed by the Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM) to calculate GPP in Jilin Province, China. We explored the level of CLP using the GPP mean from 2000 to 2018, and analyzed the changing trend and amplitude of CLP in the whole study period using both Theil–Sen median trend analysis and the Mann–Kendall (MK) test, and forecasted the sustainability of CLP with the Hurst exponent. The trend result and the Hurst exponent were integrated to acquire the future direction of change. The results revealed that: (1) The CLP level was generally high in the southeast and low in the northwest in cultivated land in Jilin, China. The area with the lowest productivity, located in the northwest of Jilin, accounted for 15.56%. (2) The majority (84.77%) of the area showed an increasing trend in 2000–2018, which was larger than the area that was decreasing, which accounted for 3.97%. (3) The overall change amplitude was dominated by a slightly increasing trend, which accounted for 51.48%. (4) The area with sustainability accounted for 33.45% and was mainly distributed in the northwest of Jilin. The area with anti-sustainability accounted for 26.78% and was mainly distributed in the northwest and central Jilin. (5) The Hurst exponent result showed that uncertain variation of CLP is likely to occur in the future over the entire region, and the central region is prone to display degeneration. Therefore, the results of this study indicated that quality improvement policy could be implemented for the middle-to-low yield fields in northwest Jilin, and dynamic monitoring and protection measures could be implemented for the areas with uncertain future changes and decreasing sustainability. Full article

The 400 mm annual precipitation fluctuation zone (75°55′–127°6′E and 26°55′–53°6′N) is located in central and western China, which is a transition area from traditional agricultural to animal husbandry. It is extremely sensitive to climatic changes. The corresponding changes of the ecosystem, represented by vegetation, under the dual influences of climate change and human activities are important issues in the study of the regional ecological environment. Based on the Savitzky–Golay (S–G) filtering method, the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI) dataset (NDVI3g) was reconstructed in this paper. Sen’s slope estimation, Mann–Kendall (M–K), multiple regression residual analysis, and the Hurst index were used to quantify the impacts of climate change and human activities on vegetation; in addition, the future persistence characteristics of the vegetation changes trend were analyzed. Vegetation changes in the study area had an obvious spatio-temporal heterogeneity. On an annual scale, the vegetation increased considerably, with a growth rate of 0.50%/10a. The multi-year mean value of NDVI and growth rate of cultivated land were the highest, followed by the forest land and grassland. On a seasonal scale, the vegetation cover increased most significantly in autumn, followed by spring and summer. In the southeastern and central parts of the study area, the vegetation cover increased significantly (P < 0.05), while it decreased significantly in the northeastern and southwestern parts. In summer, the NDVI value of all vegetation types (cultivated land, forest land and grassland) reached the maximum. The change rate of NDVI value for cultivated land reached the highest in autumn (1.57%/10a), forest land reached the highest in spring (1.15%/10a), and grassland reached the highest in autumn (0.49%/10a). The NDVI of cultivated land increased in all seasons, while forest land (−0.31%/10a) and grassland (−0.009%/10a) decreased in winter. Partial correlation analysis between vegetation and precipitation, temperature found that the areas with positive correlation accounted for 66.29% and 55.05% of the total area, respectively. Under the influence of climate change alone, 62.79% of the study area showed an increasing tendency, among which 46.79% showed a significant upward trend (P < 0.05). The NDVI decreased in 37.21% of the regions and decreased significantly in 14.88% of the regions (P < 0.05). Under the influence of human activities alone, the vegetation in the study area showed an upward trend in 59.61%, with a significant increase in 41.35% (P < 0.05), a downward trend in 40.39%, and a significant downward trend in 7.95% (P < 0.05). Vegetation growth is highly unstable and prone to drastic changes, depending on the environmental conditions. Full article