Search Results (159)

This study conducts a comparative content analysis of media coverage of the Russia–Ukraine war by China Global Television Network (CGTN) and Voice of America (VOA), focusing on emotional content and framing strategies. Analyzing 4997 articles from CGTN and 4975 articles from VOA, the study examines how each outlet emphasizes emotions such as neutrality, anger, fear, and hope. The findings reveal that CGTN predominantly adopts a neutral and analytical tone, prioritizing geopolitical implications; in contrast, VOA employs a more emotionally charged approach, highlighting the humanitarian crisis and expressing solidarity with Ukraine. While CGTN emphasizes hope and diplomatic solutions, VOA underscores anger and fear to justify international intervention and support for Ukraine. The contrasting framing strategies reflect the geopolitical interests of China and the U.S., with CGTN positioning China as a mediator advocating for peace and stability, and VOA framing Russia as the aggressor to bolster Western democratic values. By leveraging divergent emotional narratives, both media outlets serve the strategic objectives of their countries, shape global perceptions, and garner public support for their respective policies. This study contributes to understanding how emotional framing functions as a strategic tool in international media coverage during geopolitical conflicts. Full article

This paper analyzes the effectiveness of some defensive assets inside global stock portfolios by applying a standard VaR approach to daily data from 2021 to 2024. The 5Y US note is by far the best hedging instrument for single-hedged portfolios, while in multiple-hedged portfolios further VaR reductions are obtained including commodities, utilities, and real estate stocks. Bitcoin’s hedging performance is strongly negative, displaying an average VaR difference of more than two basis points with respect to the best-performing multiple-hedged portfolio in moderately defensive scenarios. This gap implies much higher maximum potential daily losses for Bitcoin’s single-hedged portfolios. Dynamic risk profiles of multiple-hedged portfolios display a smoother pattern than single-hedged portfolios, particularly during turbulent periods corresponding to the start of the Russia–Ukraine war, emphasizing the crucial benefits of higher asset diversification. Full article

This work looks for the optimal allocation of different assets, namely, the G7 stock indices, commodities (gold and WTI crude oil), cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin and Ripple), and S&P Green Bond, over four periods: before the COVID-19 crisis, during the COVID-19 crisis and before the Russia–Ukraine war, during the COVID-19 crisis and Russia–Ukraine war, and after the COVID-19 pandemic and during the Russia–Ukraine war. Metaheuristics, Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGAII), Strength Pareto Evolutionary Algorithm (SPEA2), and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) are applied to find the best allocation. The results reveal that there a significant preference for the S&P Green Bond during the four periods of study according to three algorithms, thanks to its portfolio diversification abilities. During the COVID-19 pandemic and the geopolitical crisis, the most optimal portfolio was Nikkei 225 because of its quick recovery from the pandemic and poor reliance on the Russia–Ukraine markets, while WTI crude oil and both dirty and clean cryptocurrencies were poor contributors to the investment portfolio because these assets are sensitive to geopolitical problems. After the end of the pandemic and during the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war, the three algorithms obtained remarkably different results: the NSGAII portfolio was invested in various assets, 32% of the SPEA2 portfolio was allocated to the S&P Green Bond, and half of the PSO portfolio was allocated to the S&P Green Bond too. This may be due to changes in investors’ preferences to protect their fortune and to diversify their portfolio during the war. From a risk-averse perspective, NSGAII does not underestimate the risk, while in terms of forecasting accuracy, PSO is an adequate algorithm. In terms of time, NSGAII is the fastest algorithm, while SPEA2 requires more time than the NSGAII and PSO algorithms. Our results have important implications for both investors and risk managers in terms of portfolio and risk management decisions, and they highlight the factors that influence investment choices during health and geopolitical crises. Full article

This paper explores how geopolitical risk impacts small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), focusing on the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war. Using daily return data from the ECPI Italy SME Equity and Shenzhen SME Composite indexes, as well as the Global Geopolitical Risk Index, this study employs a Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH model to analyze how correlations change over time. The results show that Asian SMEs, represented by China, exhibit higher short-term volatility but stronger long-term resilience than their European counterparts. Notably, Asian markets react consistently across crises, while European markets distinguish between different events. These findings provide important insights for policymakers, suggesting the need for standardized crisis response frameworks and emphasizing short-term mitigation efforts. This study adds to SME theory by highlighting the complex relationship between geopolitical shocks and SME performance, with important implications for risk management and regulatory strategies in emerging economies. Full article

Previous research on financial contagion has mostly looked at volatility spillovers using static or fixed parameter models. These models don’t always take into account how inter-market links change and depend on frequency during big crises. This study fills in that gap by looking at how changes in volatility in the G20 equity markets affected four big global events: the global financial crisis of 2008, the European debt crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine war. The study uses a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP VAR) framework along with the Baruník-Křehlík frequency domain spillover measure to look at how connectedness changes over short-term (1–5 days) and long-term (5–Inf days) time periods. The results show that systemic connectedness changes a lot during crises. For example, the Total Connectedness Index (TCI) was 24–25 percent during the GFC and EDC, 34 percent during COVID-19, and a huge jump to 60 percent during the Russia-Ukraine war. During the global financial crisis and the war between Russia and Ukraine, the US constantly emerged as the largest transmitter. During the European debt crisis, on the other hand, emerging markets like Turkey, South Africa, and Japan acted as net transmitters. During all crisis times, short-term spillovers are the most common. This shows how important high-frequency volatility transmission is. This study is different from others because it uses both time-varying and frequency domain views. This gives us a better idea of how crises change the way global finances are linked. The results are very important for policymakers and investors because they show how important it is to coordinate risk management, improve market safety, and make systemic stress testing better in a global financial world. Full article

‘Deepfakes’ and other forms of digital communications disinformation are now on the virtual frontlines of many armed conflicts. Military commanders can potentially gain significant tactical advantages by misleading enemy forces, opposing governments, and civilian populations into believing X when Y is the true state of affairs. Distinct from military propaganda, deliberate deceptions and subterfuge have long been part of warfare. However, a powerful claim is advanced that deepfakes such as announcing surrender, truce declarations, or similar messages that place soldiers and civilians at greater risk are international humanitarian law (IHL) violations, notably under the 1907 Hague Convention and the 1977 Additional Protocol I to the Geneva Conventions. This four-section critical discussion considers whether, or to what extent, deepfakes are IHL compliant. Selected examples taken from the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war are highlighted to illustrate the potentially grave dangers that deepfakes represent for innocent civilian populations. IHL reform recommendations are made that would reduce deepfake harm—if such reforms are embraced by the international community (an admittedly doubtful prospect). Full article

The UK electricity market is changing to adapt to Net Zero targets and respond to disruptions like the Russia–Ukraine war. This requires strategic planning to decide on the construction of new electricity generation plants for a resilient UK electricity grid. Such planning is based on forecasting the UK electricity demand long-term (from 1 year and beyond). In this paper, we propose a long-term predictive model by identifying the main components of the UK electricity demand, modelling each of these components, and combining them in a multiplicative manner to deliver a single long-term prediction. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to apply a multiplicative decomposition model for long-term predictions at both monthly and hourly resolutions, combining neural networks with Fourier analysis. This approach is extremely flexible and accurate, with a mean absolute percentage error of 4.16% and 8.62% in predicting the monthly and hourly electricity demand, respectively, from 2019 to 2021. Full article

Change points caused by extreme events in global economic markets have been widely studied in the literature. However, existing techniques to identify change points rely on subjective judgments and lack robust methodologies. The objective of this paper is to generalize a novel approach that leverages topological data analysis (TDA) to extract topological features from time series data using persistent homology. In this approach, we use Taken’s embedding and sliding window techniques to transform the initial time series data into a high-dimensional topological space. Then, in this topological space, persistent homology is used to extract topological features which can give important information related to change points. As a case study, we analyzed 26 stocks over the last 12 years by using this method and found that there were two financial market volatility indicators derived from our method, denoted as $L_1$ and $L_2$. They serve as effective indicators of long-term and short-term financial market fluctuations, respectively. Moreover, significant differences are observed across markets in different regions and sectors by using these indicators. By setting a significance threshold of 98 % for the two indicators, we found that the detected change points correspond exactly to four major financial extreme events in the past twelve years: the intensification of the European debt crisis in 2011, Brexit in 2016, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, and the energy crisis triggered by the Russia–Ukraine war in 2022. Furthermore, benchmark comparisons with established univariate and multivariate CPD methods confirm that the TDA-based indicators consistently achieve superior F1 scores across different tolerance windows, particularly in capturing widely recognized consensus events. Full article

This study examines intergenerational transmission of Russian within the U.S. Russophone diaspora in the wake of Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It addresses: (1) parents’ motivations and practices surrounding intergenerational language transmission; and (2) challenges faced by Russian-speaking families in today’s shifting sociopolitical landscape. The study draws on semi-structured Zoom interviews with 16 Russian-speaking parents in the United States, each raising children aged 3–15 and representing four different immigration periods, from the early 1990s to 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Findings reveal that heritage language maintenance is shaped not only by linguistic choices, but also by political and ethical considerations. While all parents continue to view Russian as a source of identity, cultural capital, and familial cohesion, many also actively disassociate the language from its sociopolitical ties to the aggressor state. Shared aspirations for bilingualism are tempered by internal and external pressures, including children’s growing agency, family dynamics, challenges of immigrant life, and war-driven fractures within the diaspora. This study contributes to research on heritage language maintenance and family language policies by exploring how global geopolitical events are negotiated through intimate, everyday language practices in immigrant households. Full article

Reports indicate that millions of people have been watching the Russian–Ukrainian war that broke out on 24 February 2022. This research studies the relationship between watching the war and psychological reactions in 1260 university students who responded to an online questionnaire related to watching the war on various media forms. Data were collected from April to October 2022 from five national samples from Europe (Germany, Finland, and the Czech Republic) and North America (Canada and the U.S.). Since European countries are assumed to have greater ties with the countries at war, anxiety, anger, and denial while watching the war should be greater in European participants than in North American ones. Worry about the war should be greater when more hours are spent watching the war, and anxiety related to the war should decrease with self-efficacy. ANOVA results showed that European participants spent more hours watching the war, worried more, and experienced greater distress than North American ones. Path analysis showed that having relatives, friends, or colleagues in Ukraine or Russia was associated with worry about the war through hours spent watching it. Self-efficacy was negatively related to anxiety. Psychological distress related to watching the war was far-reaching, extending to countries beyond Ukraine and Russia. Full article

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022 triggered a series of dramatic events with both humanitarian and informational repercussions. In this context, social media became saturated with rhetorical strategies and narrative framing from civil society, European media, and EU institutions alike. This paper examines how the European Union communicated institutionally during the first year of the war, focusing on the online activity of the three main EU bodies—the European Commission, the European Parliament, and the European Council—and their respective presidents: Ursula von der Leyen, Roberta Metsola, and Charles Michel. The study centres on their use of the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), analysing the content of their posts related to the conflict. In addition, several in-depth interviews were conducted with experts in EU institutional communication and disinformation on social media to complement the analysis and offer a broader perspective on the communicative strategies employed. Full article

This study investigates the dynamics of financial contagion using a flexible mixture copula framework, specifically a combination of the Survival Clayton and Survival Gumbel copulas, to estimate the lower tail dependence coefficient, interpreted as a measure of extreme downside co-movement or contagion. The model captures nonlinear and asymmetric dependencies between the global stock market and nine national markets: Australia, China, Hungary, India, New Zealand, Spain, Thailand, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The analysis spans the period from 2018 to 2024 and focuses on three major global crises: the China–U.S. trade war, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia–Ukraine conflict. The results reveal substantial heterogeneity in contagion intensity across countries and crises. The COVID-19 pandemic generated the highest and most synchronized levels of contagion, with tail dependence exceeding 0.8 in the United States and above 0.6 in several developed and emerging markets. The China–U.S. trade war resulted in moderate contagion, particularly in countries with close trade links to the U.S. and China. The Russia–Ukraine conflict produced elevated contagion in European and energy-sensitive markets such as the UK and Spain. Conversely, China and New Zealand exhibited relatively lower levels of contagion across all periods Full article

Despite the close linkage between carbon markets and fossil fuel markets, minimal research has investigated their co-movement dynamics during times of heightened geopolitical instability and public health crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic, Israeli–Palestinian conflict, and the Russia–Ukraine war. Most studies use conditional mean regression models for testing linear Granger causality, which falls short in assessing time-varying causal relationships. This paper employs a time-varying Granger causality framework to examine the dynamic linkages between fossil fuel markets and carbon markets across multiple time horizons. This methodology enables the evaluation of causal relationships that evolve over time, providing deeper insights into how the carbon market interacts with traditional fossil fuel markets. The study examines causal linkages among carbon, coal, and oil prices from 2 January 2018 to 11 July 2025, using data from Wind Database. The findings reveal a short-lived yet highly significant bidirectional causality between the carbon and fossil fuel markets during the COVID-19 period, whereas a sustained and highly significant bidirectional causal relationship emerges after the onset of the Russia–Ukraine war. During the outbreak of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, this linkage continued without major disruptions or directional shifts. Furthermore, the recursive evolution approach, based on variable sub-window sizes, detects additional evidence of significant bidirectional causal relationships among carbon, coal, and oil prices. These discoveries can serve as valuable inputs for investors and policymakers, enabling them to make informed decisions that protect their interests and ensure market stability. Additionally, coal prices showed greater persistence than oil prices in these bidirectional causal links. Full article

Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine has led to profound disruptions in local and global agri-food markets. Since Ukraine is one of the world’s largest maize exporters, the war also contributed to considerable changes in trade reallocation, as well as an increase in the significance of the European Union in Ukrainian exports. This study analyses the effects of the Russian–Ukrainian war on horizontal maize price transmission between Ukraine and the EU countries. The panel autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) was applied to investigate the impact of the war on the price pass-through between those countries. The econometric analysis was performed on a weekly feed maize export price series for Ukraine and 14 selected EU countries. The time frame of research, January 2019 to December 2024, was split into pre-war and war periods. The study indicates that with the outbreak of the war, the long-term relationship between Ukraine and the EU’s maize prices has weakened. At the same time, there was an increase in the short-run maize price transmission between Ukraine and the Eastern EU countries. This proves that in the face of the conflict, market participants in these countries are increasingly guided by the market situation in Ukraine when making economic decisions. Full article

The use of Shakespeare within warzones and at the frontline of conflict centralizes vital questions about the role of the arts during times of profound crisis, when lives and liberties are under direct attack. This article first considers Shakespearean productions linked to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, concentrating on the inaugural Ukrainian Shakespeare Festival and two documentaries that reveal how staging Shakespeare can serve humanitarian needs, promote political debate, and help individuals to process their wartime experiences. It then expands to include examples from other conflicts, including the First World War and the ongoing crisis in Gaza, and argues that warzone productions—in addition to embracing what theatre can achieve at times of conflict—also address its limitations. Warzone performances often acknowledge a gulf between representation and lived experience, between tragedy as a dramatic form and reality, which is reinforced when the individuals staging Shakespeare are also ‘actors’ in the war. This article proposes that what unites war and theatre is the power of narrative for shaping action and interpretation, and this recognition underlines the responsibilities of political and theatrical narratives at times of war, as well as the role of the critic. Full article