Search Results (17)

This study is devoted to investigating the asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks (GPRs) on Vietnam’ exports during the period from January 2010 to December 2024. Using a nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) bounds testing model, the study documented that in the short-run, GPRs have asymmetric effects on Vietnam’s exports. Specifically, negative changes in GPRs have a significantly negative influence on the exports while positive changes in the GPRs have no significant effects on exports. In the long-run, the same effects of GPRs on exports are also found from the NARDL model. Specifically, negative changes in GPRs have a significantly adverse effect on exports, while positive changes in GPRs have no significant influence on exports in the long-run. Moreover, the empirical findings reveal that, in the long-run, the real exchange rate (RER) has a significantly positive impact on exports, suggesting that the depreciation of the VND (Vietnamese Dong) boosts Vietnam’s exports. Finally, the findings obtained from the error correction model show that 34.82 percent of the divergence from the long-run equilibrium caused by a shock in month n will be corrected and adjusted back toward equilibrium in month n + 1. Full article

The transition of South Africa from coal-dependent energy systems to renewable energy alternatives presents economic and environmental trade-off complexities that require empirical investigation. This study employed threshold-switching dynamic models, NARDL analysis, and threshold Granger causality tests to investigate nonlinear relationships between renewable energy generation, economic growth, and carbon dioxide emissions in South Africa from 1980 to 2023. The threshold-switching dynamic models revealed critical structural breakpoints: a 56.4% renewable energy threshold for carbon dioxide emissions reduction, a 397.9% trade openness threshold for economic growth optimisation, and a 385.32% trade openness threshold for coal consumption transitions. The NARDL bounds test confirmed asymmetric effects in the carbon dioxide emissions and renewable energy relationship. The threshold Granger causality test established significant unidirectional causality from renewable energy to carbon dioxide emissions, economic growth to carbon dioxide emissions, and bidirectional causality between coal consumption and trade openness. However, renewable energy demonstrated no significant causal relationship with economic growth, contradicting traditional growth-led energy hypotheses. This study concluded that South Africa’s energy transition demonstrates distinct regime-dependent characteristics, with renewable energy deployment requiring critical mass thresholds to generate meaningful environmental benefits. The study recommended that optimal trade integration and renewable energy thresholds could fundamentally transform the economy’s carbon intensity while maintaining sustainable growth patterns. Full article

The principal objectives of this study were to determine how government spending on human capital, specifically on education and healthcare, impacts Saudi Arabia’s economic growth and its policy implications for sustained economic growth and development. Given the above objectives, this study examined the short-term dynamics and long-term relationships between government spending on human capital, measured by per capita education and healthcare expenditures, and its impact on Saudi Arabia’s economic growth, measured by per capita real GDP, from 1985 to 2021. The Non-linear Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) models were used to estimate and examine the relationships. The study concluded that per capita GDP is negatively correlated with per capita government spending on healthcare and positively correlated with per capita spending on education in Saudi Arabia. Per capita GDP is also positively related to exports per capita. The results of the coefficient symmetry test show that per capita spending on healthcare and education causes long-term, asymmetric effects on Saudi Arabia’s per capita GDP, that is, the decline in per capita GDP resulting from a decrease in education spending per capita is larger than the increase in per capita GDP resulting from an increase in education spending per capita. However, the decline in per capita GDP resulting from an increase in healthcare spending per capita is larger than the increase in per capita GDP resulting from a decrease in healthcare spending per capita. The study also found unidirectional causality from per capita spending on healthcare, education, and exports to per capita GDP. Therefore, this study infers that increases in government healthcare spending reduce economic growth, whereas increases in spending on education contribute to it. Saudi Arabia’s economy also experiences export-led economic growth. The results of this study provide the government and policymakers with valuable insights with respect to the efficient allocation of scarce government resources to education and healthcare for sustained economic growth and development. Full article

This study examines the relationship between CO₂ emissions, labor force participation, foreign direct investment (FDI), and trade openness on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Saudi Arabia, within the context of Vision 2030’s economic reforms. Vision 2030 aims to diversify the economy, reduce oil dependency, and promote sustainable growth, making it crucial to understand the factors influencing inflation and economic stability. Using annual data from 2001 to 2022 and the nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) bounds testing approach, the study analyzes both short- and long-term effects. The findings reveal that higher CO₂ emissions have a deflationary effect, reducing the CPI in both the short and long term, while FDI shows an inflationary impact with a delayed effect. Labor force expansion contributes to lowering the CPI, reflecting its deflationary pressure, especially over the long term. Trade openness is also examined for its dual effects on CPI, In the short run, both positive and negative trade openness reduce consumer prices, while in the long run, positive trade openness increases inflation, and negative trade openness lowers prices. This shows the differing inflationary impacts of trade openness over time. These findings contribute to the policy discourse on balancing economic growth, environmental sustainability, and inflation management, offering strategic insights for policymakers in alignment with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 objectives. Full article

This study investigated the interplay between exchange rate volatility, inflation rates, and real interest rates on Zambia’s economic growth from 1992 to 2022, utilizing annualized time series data. The study was necessitated by the limited published literature and relatively varying findings on the variables’ relationships in resource-dependent countries, such as Zambia. Diagnostic tests, including stationarity and co-integration analyses, were employed to determine integration orders and potential long-run relationships. The linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag models were employed to assess short- and long-run dynamics of the variables on economic growth. The results established a positive short-run relationship between inflation rates and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the linear autoregressive distributive lag model, while an inverse relationship was observed in the nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag model, suggesting that negative shocks in inflation rates had a highly significant positive impact on economic growth. Furthermore, interest rates exhibited a positive relationship with economic growth, further suggesting that positive shocks had a greater significant direct effect on economic growth in comparison to negative shocks in the short and long run, respectively. Finally, exchange rates in both models exhibited an inverse relationship with economic growth irrespective of positive or negative shocks in the long run, highlighting the adverse effect of exchange rate volatility on economic growth prospects in developing countries, such as Zambia. The speed of adjustment to convergence following any disruptions was determined to be 75.18% (ARDL) and 89.19% (NARDL), highlighting relatively fast speeds of adjustments from any short-run disruptions. Notably, some of the policy recommendations included regular assessments of exchange rate volatility influences on import prices, domestic inflation, and production costs in key sectors. Additionally, the implementation of currency hedging options and forwards as well as bulking of foreign exchange reserves will ensure the stability of exchange rates against other major currencies in various economic conditions. Full article

This study is the first to investigate the asymmetric effects of oil price volatility on stock returns for the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE). We utilized weekly series of VN30-Index, WTI crude oil prices, geopolitical risks (GPR) index, and gold prices spanning from 6 February 2012 to 31 December 2023 as data sources. Using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) bounds testing approach, we found that, in the shortterm, oil price volatility has negative asymmetric effects on market returns. Specifically, in the shortterm, a 1 percent increase in oil price volatility immediately leads to a 2.6868 percent decrease in the market returns, while a similar magnitude decrease in oil price volatility is associated with a 6.3180 percent increase in the market returns. In addition, the results obtained from the NARDL model indicated that, in the longterm, the negative and positive changes of oil price volatility have significantly negative effects on the market returns. Finally, the findings derived from the error correction model (ECM) show that a 98.21 percent deviation from the equilibrium level in the previous week is converged and corrected back to the long-term equilibrium in the current week. Full article

This study investigates the asymmetric effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on food security in Nigeria, utilizing annual time series data from 1970 to 2021. The study used descriptive statistics, unit root tests, the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model and its associated Bounds tests to analyze the data. The analysis reveals that adult population, environmental degradation, exchange rate uncertainty (EXRU), financial deepening, food security (FS), government expenditure in agriculture uncertainty (GEAU), inflation, and interest rate uncertainty (INRU) exhibit positive mean values over the period, with varying degrees of volatility. Cointegration tests indicate a long-term relationship between EPU variables (GEAU, INRU, and EXRU) and food security. The study finds that cumulative positive and negative EPU variables have significant effects on food security in the short run. Specifically, negative GEAU, positive INRU, positive and negative EXRU have significant effects in the short run. In the long run, negative GEAU, positive and negative EXRU have significant effects on food security. Additionally, the research highlights asymmetric effects, showing that the influence of GEAU and EXRU on food security differs in the short- and long-run. The study underscores the importance of increased government expenditure on agriculture, control of exchange rate and interest rate uncertainty, and the reduction in economic policy uncertainty to mitigate risks in the agricultural sector and enhance food security. Recommendations include strategies to stabilize exchange rates to safeguard food supply and overall food security. Full article

Human capital in general spurs economic growth. Female human capital in terms of education and health in particular is important for economic growth in countries where poverty and gender inequalities are pervasive, such as Sudan. This study aimed to investigate the role of female human capital in economic growth in Sudan, together with female labor force participation and women’s participation in the national parliament. The study applied a basic autoregressive distributed lag model ARDL and a nonlinear (NARDL) accounting for structural breaks to time-series data over the period 1975–2021. The bounds tests revealed that female human capital variables and economic growth have a long-run equilibrium relationship. The empirical results revealed that female human capital has a negative effect on gross national income per capita (GNIP). However, female labor participation was found to have a significant positive effect on economic growth in both models. Prevalence of HIV/AIDS among women of age 14–25 has a significant negative effect on economic growth, which is likely also reflecting the negative effect of female human capital. Results also showed that women’s participation in the parliament has positive and significant effect on economic growth in the short run only. The study argues for enhancing female human capital via female enrollment in education and through the promotion of women’s health, including combatting HIV/AIDS. Effective female labor participation can be enhanced through reductions in women’s vulnerability in employment and increasing their work in waged formal sectors. Women’s political empowerment could foster long-term growth, but its quality aspects must be ascertained. Full article

Economic growth, energy prices, technological innovations, and financial depth all play a vital role in sectoral energy consumption. Early studies have extensively examined the interactions among these variables, which are important in developing policies on energy consumption. However, to date, most studies have estimated energy consumption in a linear fashion. If the actual relationship is non-linear or asymmetric, then the inferences drawn from a linear framework may be misleading. Hence, in this study, we employed a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach to analyse Malaysian sectoral energy consumption from 1978 to 2016. We found that the bounds test of the NARDL indicates the presence of cointegration among the variables. The key findings include: (1) a rise in income increases energy consumption throughout all sectors, but sectoral energy consumption does not respond significantly to a fall in income; (2) both increases and decreases in energy prices reduce industrial energy consumption, but residential and commercial sectors’ energy consumption react positively to price falls; (3) technological advancement increases transportation energy consumption; and (4) both an increase and decrease of credit availability to private sectors reduce industrial energy consumption, but transportation energy consumption reacts positively to financial deepening. Moreover, the effects at the sectoral level were asymmetrical. The findings indicate that the changes in selected macroeconomic variables were found to have a Granger causality effect on sectoral energy consumption. Given these findings, our study offers empirical support for the inclusion of non-linearity or asymmetric effects when modelling sectoral energy consumption. Full article

The paper features an examination of the link between the behaviour of the FTSE 100 and S&P500 Indexes in both an autoregressive distributed lag ARDL, plus a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag NARDL framework. The attraction of NARDL is that it represents the simplest method available of modelling combined short- and long-run asymmetries. The bounds testing framework adopted means that it can be applied to stationary and non-stationary time series vectors, or combinations of both. The data comprise a daily FTSE adjusted price series, commencing in April 2009 and terminating in March 2021, and a corresponding daily S&P500 Index adjusted-price series obtained from Yahoo Finance. The data period includes all the gyrations caused by the Brexit vote in the UK, beginning with the vote to leave in 2016 and culminating in the actual agreement to withdraw in January 2020. It was then followed by the impact of the global spread of COVID-19 from the beginning of 2020. The results of the analysis suggest that movements in the contemporaneous levels of daily S&P500 Index levels have very significant effects on the behaviour of the levels of the daily FTSE 100 Index. They also suggest that negative movements have larger impacts than do positive movements in S&P500 levels, and that long-term multiplier impacts take about 10 days to take effect. These effects are supported by the results of quantile regression analysis. A key result is that weak form market efficiency does not apply in the second period. Full article

The association between carbon emissions and international trade has been examined thoroughly; however, consumption-based carbon emissions, which is adjusted for international trade, have not been studied extensively. Therefore, the present study assesses the asymmetric impact of trade (import and export) and economic growth in consumption-based carbon emissions (CCO₂) using the MINT nations (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey) as a case study. We applied the Nonlinear ARDL to assess this connection using dataset between 1990 and 2018. The outcomes from the BDS test affirmed the use of nonlinear techniques. Furthermore, the NARDL bounds test confirmed long-run association between CCO₂ and exports, imports and economic growth. The outcomes from the NARDL long and short-run estimates disclosed that positive (negative) shocks in imports increase (decrease) CCO₂ emissions in all the MINT nations. Moreover, positive (negative) shocks in exports decrease (increase) CCO₂ emissions in all the MINT nations. As expected, a positive shock in economic growth triggers CCO₂ emissions while a negative shift does not have significant impact on CCO₂ emissions in the MINT nations. Furthermore, we applied the Gradual shift causality test and the outcomes disclose that imports and economic growth can predict CCO₂ emissions in the MINT nations. The study outcomes have significant policy recommendations for policymakers in the MINT nations. Full article

This study investigates the asymmetric cointegration and causal relationships between economic growth, carbon emissions, and energy consumption in the next eleven (11) countries over the period 1972–2013. The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) bounds testing approach and nonpragmatic Granger causality tests are employed. This research’s empirical results have entrenched vital relationships that have significant policy implications. We affirm nonlinear cointegration among the variables in Bangladesh, Iran, Turkey, and Vietnam. The long-run asymmetric effect outcomes indicate a definite boom in economic growth, significantly increases carbon emission in Turkey, and a decline in Vietnam. Additionally, a positive shock to energy consumption significantly increases the carbon emission in Bangladesh, Iran, and Turkey, but a decrease in emissions in Vietnam. Findings from the Wald test reveal a long-run asymmetric effect between carbon emission and economic growth in Bangladesh, Iran, and Vietnam, and for Iran, an asymmetric short-run impact. Long-run and short-run asymmetric effects between carbon emission and energy consumption in Bangladesh and Iran. In terms of asymmetric causality results, bidirectional causality between carbon emission and economic growth was noted in Bangladesh and Turkey, and a unidirectional causality from economic growth to carbon emission in Egypt and South Korea. Energy consumption causes carbon emission in Bangladesh, Egypt, Pakistan, South Korea, and not vice versa. We determined a bidirectional asymmetric causality relationship between carbon emission and energy consumption in Vietnam and a unidirectional causality link from carbon emissions to Turkey’s energy consumption. Full article

The aim of this study is threefold; first, the study investigates the symmetric impact of trade openness, financial development, and institutional quality on environmental degradation and environmental sustainability. Second, the study examines the asymmetric relationship between financial development, institutional quality, and environmental degradation. Third, the study examines the asymmetric relationship between financial development, institutional quality, and environmental sustainability. For this purpose, the study utilized the data of Pakistan from 1996 to 2018. The study applied Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF), Phillips Parron (PP) and Zivote, and Andrews unit root test to check the properties of stationarity of the data. This study applied the Auto Regressive Distributive Lags (ARDL) model to investigate symmetric relationships while the Non-Linear Auto Regressive Distributive Lag Model (NARDL) approach is utilized to investigate the asymmetric relationship among variables. ARDL bounds testing approach utilized to investigate long-run co-integration while short-run dynamics have been investigated by applying the error correction method (ECM). This study found the significant long-run symmetric and asymmetric association of institutional quality (IQ) and financial development (FD) with environmental degradation (ED) and environmental sustainability. However, IQ- has an insignificant association with environmental sustainability. Moreover, dynamic multiplier analysis indicates that positive shock to FD and IQ has a stronger impact on environmental degradation while a positive or negative shock to FD; both have a stronger impact on environmental sustainability. However, a positive or negative shock to IQ has a smaller impact on environmental sustainability. Moreover, the study also found a significant long-run symmetric association of trade openness with environmental degradation and environmental sustainability. This study suggests that the quality of institutions, financial development, and trade openness is necessary to enhance the quality of the environment. Full article

The paper features an examination of the link between the behaviour of oil prices and DowJones Index in a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) framework. The attraction of NARDL is that it represents the simplest method available of modelling combined short- and long-run asymmetries. The bounds testing framework adopted means that it can be applied to stationary and non-stationary time series vectors, or combinations of both. The data comprise a monthly West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil series from Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis (FRED), commencing in January 2000 and terminating in February 2019, and a corresponding monthly DOW JONES index adjusted-price series obtained from Yahoo Finance. Both series are adjusted for monthly USA CPI values to create real series. The results of the analysis suggest that movements in the lagged real levels of monthly WTI crude oil prices have very significant effects on the behaviour of the DOW JONES Index. They also suggest that negative movements have larger impacts than positive movements in WTI prices, and that long-term multiplier effects take about 9 to 12 months to take effect. Full article

This paper addresses the assessment of the price transmission of dairy products in Hungary. Monthly prices are used in testing the hypothesis of asymmetric price transmission between farmers and retailers. The magnitude of short- and long-run asymmetric transmission between price levels is measured through a nonlinear autoregressive distributed model (NARDL). The cointegration of variables is validated through bounds test of the NARDL model. The estimated NARDL model proves the existence of long- and short-run asymmetric relationships between producer milk price and most retailer dairy product prices. Furthermore, the model confirms the presence of a significantly positive long-run price asymmetry for butter, buttercream, sour cream, and Trappista cheese. The positive long-run price transmission asymmetry results could be explained by the strong market power of milk processors, which are granted through their concentrations and the absence of competitiveness in the market. The short-run asymmetry of price transmission could be explained by implementing some policy interventions, such as the milk quotas, which limit milk production. Analyzing the asymmetric relationship between the producer milk price and the retailer dairy product prices could give a clear vision of the dairy sector and how prices move between market actors, highlighting the retailers’ purchasing power feature, and its role in determining the market price interaction. Full article