Search Results (1,159)

This paper introduces a rigorous class of two-dimensional Markov-switching autoregressive moving-average (2D MS-ARMA) models for spatial lattice data exhibiting regime-dependent dynamics. The switching mechanism is governed by a latent causal Markov random field that drives spatial transitions between regime-specific autoregressive and moving-average structures. We provide sufficient conditions for the existence of a strictly stationary solution through the top Lyapunov exponent associated with a sequence of random matrices obtained from a state-space representation constructed along the lexicographic order. For the first-order bidirectional specification, we derive explicit spectral conditions linking stationarity to the regime-dependent spectral radii. Sufficient conditions ensuring the existence of finite second-order moments are also provided. Parameter estimation is carried out using a variational expectation–maximization (VEM) algorithm based on a mean-field approximation of the posterior distribution of the hidden regimes. The E-step yields closed-form coordinate ascent updates, while the M-step relies on gradient-based numerical optimization with derivatives computed via recursive differentiation. Under increasing-domain asymptotics, we discuss the consistency and asymptotic behavior of the variational estimator. The proposed framework fills a methodological gap between classical one-dimensional Markov-switching ARMA models and spatial autoregressive structures by extending regime-switching theory to multi-indexed processes with rigorous probabilistic foundations. It provides a comprehensive basis for statistical inference, model diagnostics, and prediction in spatially heterogeneous environments. Full article

In this paper we present a hybrid convolutional neural network–hidden Markov model framework for detecting solar flare events of intensity greater than or equal to M1.0 from very low frequency signals via their induced sudden ionospheric disturbances. The convolutional neural network processes fixed-length windows of raw very low frequency signals and their temporal derivatives to produce probabilistic flare estimates, which serve as emission probabilities for a two-state hidden Markov model. Viterbi decoding enforces temporal consistency, suppressing spurious fluctuations and yielding physically plausible event sequences. The approach is specifically designed to detect the onset-to-peak interval of flare events and, with further development, could operate in real time for early flare warning. The model was trained and evaluated on very low frequency data from the DHO38 transmitter in Germany to a receiver near Birr, Ireland. Sample-level evaluation achieved a balanced accuracy of 0.819 and a Matthews correlation coefficient of 0.529, while event-level detection reached a peak F1-score of 0.558 for moderate-to-strong flares of intensity greater than or equal to C6.0. These results demonstrate automated, physically consistent detection of solar flares based on sudden ionospheric disturbances, indicating the potential of the proposed approach, when combined across multiple receivers, to act as a low-cost complement to satellite-based monitoring. Full article

In underground coal mining, the gear of a shearer’s rocker arm endures extreme stress and environmental fluctuations. Failures in this vital component can pose serious safety hazards, cause prolonged operational downtime, and result in significant financial losses. Therefore, accurate gear fault diagnosis is crucial. However, conventional diagnostic methods often struggle with limited feature extraction and poor performance when dealing with non-stationary, noisy signals typical of this environment. To address these challenges, a hybrid model consisting of Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, and Markov Transition Model (MTM) is proposed. In this framework, the CNN is used to extract both global and local features related to gear fault. A time-distributed feature extractor is then integrated with the LSTM to capture the temporal progression of these features, aiding in effective modeling of fault evolution over time. Finally, the MTM further refines classification by incorporating probabilistic state transition between fault conditions, thereby improving diagnostic stability and robustness under noise. Experimental validation was done using vibration data from the Taizhong Coal Machinery rocker arm test platform and gear data from Southeast University and achieved up to 99.79% accuracy. These results show this proposed method outperformed other advanced diagnostic methods, offering dependable fault diagnosis and strong noise resistance even under extreme noise conditions of −5 dB SNR. Full article

Collecting a large number of dangerous omen scenarios from drivers’ first-person perspective is of great significance for training and improving end-to-end autonomous driving models. In this study, we aim at capturing driver-perspective scenarios when recognizing dangerous omens. Firstly, through the design and implementation of vehicle and virtual driving experiments, the electroencephalogram, electrocardiogram and eye movement data of the subjects are collected. Statistical tests are conducted to analyze the characteristic differences among drivers across three distinct states. It also reveals that the driver can perceive and distinguish the dangerous omen clearly. Secondly, the evolution law of drivers’ perception state is analyzed to accurately judge the time period of drivers’ dangerous omen perception. Thirdly, the Hidden Markov Model is used to build the driver perception state transition model, and then the model is calibrated and verified. Finally, the model is utilized to identify drivers’ dangerous omen perception states and extract the corresponding perspective objective scenarios, which can provide sufficient samples for training end-to-end autonomous driving models. This study is of great significance to enable the capability of vehicles to recognize dangerous omens, advancing end-to-end and other high-level autonomous driving technologies and further securing vehicle safety. Full article

Wireless sensor networks (WSNs) are fundamental building blocks of modern ubiquitous sensing systems. In many practical WSN deployments, sensing devices are tightly constrained in buffer capacity, while device mobility leads to topology decentralization. These characteristics pose significant challenges for reliable and timely data delivery across WSNs. In this paper, we propose a general multi-probing opportunistic routing strategy tailored for buffer-constrained WSNs, aiming to enhance transmission opportunity utilization under realistic sensing device limitations. With the help of Queueing Theory and Markov Chain Theory, we capture the sophisticated queueing processes for the buffer space of sensors, which enables the limiting distribution of the buffer occupation state to be determined. On this basis, we develop a theoretical performance modeling framework to evaluate the fundamental performance metrics of the WSN with the multi-probing opportunistic routing, including the per-flow throughput and the expected end-to-end delay. The validity of the performance modeling framework is verified by network simulations. Moreover, extensive numerical results demonstrate the network performance behaviors comprehensively and reveal some insightful findings that can serve as important guidelines for the configuration and operation of WSNs. Full article

This paper presents a hybrid econometric and machine-learning framework for forecasting GDP that bridges long-run structure with short-run regime dynamics. Using annual World Bank data spanning 1960 to 2024, the framework combines three complementary components: an ARIMA baseline that captures persistence, a three-state Hidden Markov Model (HMM) that provides probabilistic regime identification, and an LSTM-based extension that learns nonlinear patterns associated with regime transitions. Detailed out-of-sample forecasting evidence is reported for five representative countries (the United States, China, Germany, India, and Greece), chosen to illustrate performance across different volatility profiles and economic environments. Across these case studies, the integrated HMM–LSTM approach often delivers lower forecast errors than the benchmark alternatives, although the magnitude of the gains is not uniform across countries. Beyond point forecasting performance, the regime layer yields an interpretable probabilistic representation of business cycle conditions that can support real-time monitoring and early-warning assessment. By combining transparency with adaptability, the proposed framework contributes to the forecasting literature and provides a practical decision-support tool under heightened macroeconomic uncertainty. Full article

Accurate modeling of learners’ evolving cognitive states is essential for intelligent educational systems, yet many existing knowledge tracing and graph-based approaches rely on static structures or purely sequential representations that inadequately capture dynamic structural changes in learning processes. This study proposes a Learner Cognitive Graph (LCG) framework that integrates dynamic heterogeneous graph modeling, structured behavioral data acquisition, and reinforcement learning-based intervention optimization. A Dynamic Cognition Graph (DCG) is formally defined as a sequence of temporally evolving graph snapshots representing interactions among learners, knowledge concepts, and exercises. A reverse Turing test-based agent with structured prompting is introduced to collect reasoning-oriented behavioral evidence, improving data reliability for cognitive modeling. Temporal message passing, multi-scale memory updating, and self-supervised learning objectives are employed to construct dynamic cognitive representations. Personalized intervention is formulated as a Markov decision process to optimize long-term learning outcomes. Experiments conducted on real-world and simulated educational datasets demonstrate improved knowledge mastery prediction accuracy, cognitive state transition modeling, and intervention efficiency compared with representative baselines. The proposed framework provides a systematic and scalable approach for dynamic cognitive modeling and adaptive educational support. Full article

The rapid expansion of the tourism industry underscores the necessity for sustainable hotel recommendation systems that guide user choices while safeguarding the long-term viability of the tourism ecosystem. However, existing methods often struggle to reconcile individual user preferences with sustainable consumption objectives, frequently encountering the “information cocoon” effect and lacking interpretability in their decision-making processes. To address these issues, this study proposes a multi-objective, context-aware hotel recommendation framework that integrates text mining, sequential behavior modeling, and reinforcement learning. The framework begins by employing unsupervised learning to extract multidimensional hotel features from online reviews, with an explicit emphasis on comprehensive sustainability metrics. It subsequently applies a dynamic state representation approach that merges long-term and short-term interests with real-time contextual information to accurately reflect evolving consumer needs. Furthermore, a dynamic feature weighting module is incorporated to enhance interpretability and enable context-adaptive evaluation of both commercial and sustainable attributes. The recommendation process is structured as a Markov Decision Process, leveraging a composite reward function comprising diversity penalties and sustainability incentives. Empirical analysis using real-world data validates the framework, demonstrating its contribution to sustainable tourism and achieving recommendation accuracy that surpasses existing benchmark models. Full article

A continuous-time Markov chain framework is developed for service life prediction of building assets, and three formulations are compared: a homogeneous generator, a time-varying generator, and a fractional model. The framework delivers survival, density of absorption time, hazard, and mean time to absorption. For the homogeneous case, state trajectories are computed using matrix exponentials. The time-varying case is solved both by local exponential propagation on a time grid and by direct integration of the Kolmogorov equation. The fractional case is implemented in two independent ways, via a truncated series expansion and via an in-house routine for the Mittag-Leffler function, which also allows the direct evaluation of survival and hazard from the standard fractional relations while avoiding singular behaviour at the origin. This study shows that non-homogeneous rates accelerate deterioration relative to the homogeneous benchmark, whereas fractional dynamics reproduce early-time acceleration followed by a slow decline of the hazard, which is consistent with heavy-tailed survival and longer effective service life. The two fractional solvers provide mutually consistent outputs, which supports the numerical robustness of the approach. The framework is readily applicable to sparse inspection data and short observation windows and provides a transparent basis for comparing modelling assumptions that affect life cycle forecasts used in asset management and maintenance planning. Full article

Hybridization effectively enhances breeding efficiency and significantly boosts sheep productivity. However, the epigenetic mechanisms underlying the superior production performance of crossbreds remain largely elusive. In this study, Hu sheep were crossbred with Suffolk rams used as the paternal line. We integrated RNA-seq, ATAC-seq, and CUT&Tag (H3K4me3, H3K4me1, H3K27ac, and H3K27me3) techniques to characterize epigenetic regulatory differences in the longissimus dorsi muscle between Hu sheep (HU) and crossbred progeny (SH). Phenotypic and transcriptomic analyses revealed that SH crossbred sheep exhibited superior growth performance (p < 0.05), and the upregulated genes in the Apelin signaling pathway were significantly correlated with eye muscle area (p < 0.05). Utilizing a Hidden Markov Model, we annotated 15 distinct chromatin states in both HU and SH sheep, systematically characterizing the dynamic epigenomic landscapes across the two breeds. In contrast to SH sheep, the genome of HU sheep exhibited enrichment of repressive chromatin modifications typified by H3K27me3. Strong active enhancers (EnhA) were significantly enriched within upregulated genes in SH. A total of 1862 SH-specific and 691 HU-specific EnhA elements were characterized in this study. Motif analysis revealed that SH-specific EnhA were enriched for myogenic MEF2 family motifs (p < 0.05), which promote muscle and vascular development. By integrating multi-omics data, we constructed a putative regulatory network potentially modulated by SH-specific enhancers, identifying CMKLR1, PPARGC1A, and TLE3 as the core hub genes. Collectively, this study provides a robust data resource, identifying candidate genes and regulatory elements associated with crossbreeding-related muscle phenotypes. Full article

This paper presents a conceptual architecture for an AI-Driven Adaptive Encryption Device (AI-AED), a tri-modular hardware platform embodied in a registered industrial design. The device integrates a Secure Input Module, an AI-Enhanced Central Processing Unit with biometric authentication, and a Secure Output Module connected by unidirectional buses. We formalise the adaptive encryption policy as a constrained Markov decision process (CMDP) over a discrete action space of 216 cryptographic configurations, with safety constraints that provably prevent convergence to insecure states. A formal threat model based on extended Dolev–Yao assumptions with four physical access tiers defines attacker capabilities, and anti-downgrade safeguards enforce a monotonically non-decreasing security floor during threat escalation. An information-theoretic analysis shows that adaptive algorithm selection contributes an additional entropy term H(α) to ciphertext uncertainty, upper-bounded by log₂(|L_enc|) ≈ 1.58 bits, while noting this represents increased attacker uncertainty rather than a strengthening of any individual cipher. A component-level latency model estimates 0.91–1.00 ms pipeline latency under normal operation and 3.14–3.42 ms under active threat, including integration overhead. Simulation validation over 1000 episodes compares a tabular Q-learning baseline against the proposed Deep Q-Network operating on the continuous state space: the DQN achieves 82% fewer constraint violations, 6× faster threat response, and more stable policy switching, demonstrating the advantage of continuous-state reinforcement learning for safety-critical adaptive encryption. All claims are positioned as theoretical contributions requiring empirical validation through prototype implementation. Full article

Lithium-ion batteries in hybrid solar-grid systems experience complex electro-thermal dynamics and stochastic mode switching that threshold-based battery management systems fail to capture. This paper proposes a hybrid deviation detection framework that treats anomaly detection as a trajectory-consistency problem over a power-feasible Markov jump nonlinear system. A disturbance-robust invariant operating region is first established under explicit current bounds. A reachable-set equivalence is then derived, linking residual consistency to disturbance-augmented trajectory membership. Building on this structure, Isolation Forest empirically estimates the support of admissible electro-thermal trajectories, capturing nonlinear and mode-dependent behaviors not fully described by the analytical disturbance model. A unified sequential detection rule integrates structural constraint violations, model-based residual deviations, and empirical support inconsistencies into a coherent real-time monitor. The framework is validated on a hybrid solar-grid platform with a 6 W photovoltaic panel, a 3.7 V 1820 mAh lithium-ion battery, and a Raspberry Pi, collecting 3976 samples over four days. Results demonstrate early detection of depletion events and mode-transition anomalies before hard threshold violations, with zero false alarms during steady operation and an overall deviation rate of 4.8%, aligning with the configured contamination level. Early warning was observed at 20% state of charge, providing a 10% margin before the hardware threshold of 10%, while 88% of detected anomalies occurred in sequences, validating the persistence rule. Real-time inference required 47 ms per cycle with a 156 MB memory footprint, confirming edge deployment feasibility. Full article

Rapid changes in Arctic summer sea ice exert substantial influences on the polar climate system, maritime navigation, and resource exploitation, while subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction of sea ice state remains highly uncertain. Using daily observations and reanalysis data of sea ice concentration (SIC) and thickness (SIT) from 1979 to 2023, together with concurrent atmospheric and oceanic fields, this study develops a multivariate linear Markov model to perform S2S predictions of Arctic summer sea ice. Sensitivity experiments with different variable combinations, weighting strategies, and modal truncation schemes are conducted, and predictive skill is systematically evaluated against persistence and climatological baselines. Results indicate that the model exhibits stable forecast skill without pronounced error accumulation at extended lead times. SIC predictability is primarily governed by its intrinsic spatiotemporal persistence and is significantly modulated by oceanic thermodynamic forcing, particularly sea surface temperature and surface net energy flux, highlighting a pronounced oceanic memory effect. In contrast, local atmospheric dynamic variables provide limited incremental skill. For SIT, predictability is dominated by its own historical state, with SIC contributing marginal short-term improvement and air–sea coupling exerting weak influence. Overall, the proposed framework effectively extracts dominant predictable signals with clear physical interpretability, providing a computationally efficient statistical approach for S2S prediction of Arctic summer sea ice. Full article

To address the issues of load aggregation and traffic congestion in faulty electricity–transportation coupled networks (ETCNs), this paper proposes an electric vehicle (EV) charging guidance strategy based on Graph Reinforcement Learning (GRL). First, a graph-structured feature extraction model is developed. The GraphSAGE module is employed to capture the multi-scale spatiotemporal features of the ETCN. The topological changes and energy-information interaction characteristics under fault scenarios are analyzed. Second, a Finite Markov Decision Process (FMDP) framework is established to address the stochastic and dynamic nature of EV charging behavior. The charging station selection and route planning problem is transformed into an agent decision-making process. A reward function is designed by incorporating voltage constraints, traffic flow constraints, and state-of-charge margin penalties. This ensures a balanced consideration of power grid security and traffic efficiency. The FMDP model is then solved using a Deep Q-Network (DQN) to achieve optimal EV charging guidance under fault conditions. Finally, case studies are conducted on a coupled simulation scenario consisting of an IEEE 33-node power distribution system and a 23-node transportation network. Results show that the proposed method reduces the system operation cost to 218,000 CNY, controls the voltage deviation rate of the distribution network at 3.1% in line with the operation standard, and enables the model to achieve stable convergence after only 250 training episodes. It can effectively optimize the charging load distribution and maintain the voltage stability of the power grid under fault conditions. Full article

In ecologically fragile and geomorphologically complex mountainous regions, ensuring a smooth transition from poverty alleviation to multidimensional sustainable rural development remains a key issue in regional governance. Focusing on the Qinba Mountains, a typical former contiguous poverty-stricken region in China covering 18 prefecture-level cities in six provinces, this study uses 2009–2023 prefecture-level panel data to examine the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of coordinated rural revitalization. An integrated framework of “multi-dimensional evaluation–spatiotemporal tracking–attribution diagnosis” is developed by combining the improved AHP–entropy-weight TOPSIS method, the Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD) model, spatial Markov chains, spatial autocorrelation, and the Geodetector. The results show pronounced subsystem asynchrony. Livelihood and Well-being Security (U5) improves steadily, while Level of Industrial Development (U1), Civic Virtues and Cultural Vibrancy (U3), and Rural Governance (U4) also rise but with clear spatial differentiation; by contrast, Quality of Human Settlements (U2) fluctuates in stages under ecological fragility. Overall, the coupling coordination level advances from the Verge of Imbalance to Intermediate Coordination, yet the regional pattern remains uneven, with eastern basin cities leading and western deep mountainous cities lagging. State transitions display both policy responsiveness and path dependence: the probability of retaining the original state ranges from 50.0% to 90.5%; low-level neighborhoods reduce the upward transition probability to 25%, whereas medium-to-high-level neighborhoods raise the upward transition probability of low-level cities from 36.36% to 53.33%. Spatial dependence is also evident, with Global Moran’s I increasing, with fluctuations, from 0.331 in 2009 to 0.536 in 2023; high-value clusters extend along the Guanzhong Plain–Han River Valley corridor, while low-value clusters remain relatively locked in mountainous border areas. Driving mechanisms show clear stage-wise succession. At the single-factor level, the explanatory power of Road Network Density (F6) declines from 0.639 to 0.287, whereas Terrain Relief Amplitude (F1) becomes the dominant background constraint in the later stage (q = 0.772). Multi-factor interactions are generally enhanced. In particular, the traditional infrastructure-led pathway weakens markedly, with F1 ∩ F6 = 0.055 in 2023, while the interaction between terrain and consumer market vitality becomes dominant, with F1 ∩ F7 = 0.987 in 2023. On this basis, three major pathways are identified: government fiscal intervention and transportation accessibility improvement, capital agglomeration and market demand stimulation, and human–earth system adaptation and ecological value realization. These findings provide quantitative evidence for breaking spatial lock-in and improving cross-regional resource allocation in ecologically constrained mountainous regions. Full article