Search Results (83)

Flood hazards have increasingly threatened the East Kazakhstan region in recent decades due to climate change and growing anthropogenic pressures, leading to more frequent and severe flooding events. This article considers an approach to modeling and forecasting river runoff using the example of the small Kurchum River in the East Kazakhstan region. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the numerical performance of the flood hazard model by comparing simulated flood extents with observed flood data. Two types of data were used as initial data: topographic data (digital elevation models and topographic maps) and hydrological data, including streamflow time series from stream gauges (hourly time steps) and lateral inflows along the river course. Spatially distributed rainfall forcing was not applied. To build the model, we used the software packages of HEC-RAS version 5.0.5 and MIKE version 11. Using retrospective data for 3 years (2019–2021), modeling was performed, the calculated boundaries of possible flooding were obtained, and the highest risk zones were identified. A dynamic map of depth changes in the river system is presented, showing the process of flood wave propagation, the dynamics of depth changes, and the expansion of the flood zone. Temporal flood inundation mapping and performance metrics were evaluated for each individual flood event (2019, 2020, and 2021). The simulation outcomes closely correlate with actual flood events. The assessment showed that the model data coincide with the real ones by 91.89% (2019), 89.09% (2020), and 95.91% (2021). The obtained results allow for a clarification of potential flood zones and can be used in planning measures to reduce flood risks. This study demonstrates the importance of an integrated approach to modeling, combining various software packages and data sources. Full article

The Eastern Huang–Huai region of China is a representative mining area with a high groundwater level. High-intensity underground mining activities have not only induced land cover and land use changes (LUCC) but also significantly changed the watershed hydrological behavior. This study integrated the land use prediction model PLUS and the hydrological simulation model MIKE 21. Taking the Bahe River Watershed in Huaibei City, China, as an example, it simulated the hydrological response trends of the watershed in 2037 under different land use scenarios. The results demonstrate the following: (1) The land use predictions for each scenario exhibit significant variation. In the maximum subsidence scenario, the expansion of water areas is most pronounced. In the planning scenario, the increase in construction land is notable. Across all scenarios, the area of cultivated land decreases. (2) In the maximum subsidence scenario, the area of high-intensity waterlogging is the greatest, accounting for 31.35% of the total area of the watershed; in the planning scenario, the proportion of high-intensity waterlogged is the least, at 19.10%. (3) In the maximum subsidence scenario, owing to the water storage effect of the subsidence depression, the flood peak is conspicuously delayed and attains the maximum value of 192.3 m³/s. In the planning scenario, the land reclamation rate and ecological restoration rate of subsidence area are the highest, while the regional water storage capacity is the lowest. As a result, the total cumulative runoff is the greatest, and the peak flood value is reduced. The influence of different degrees of subsidence on the watershed hydrological behavior varies, and the coal mining subsidence area has the potential to regulate and store runoff and perform hydrological regulation. The results reveal the mechanism through which different land use scenarios influence hydrological processes, which provides a scientific basis for the territorial space planning and sustainable development of coal mining subsidence areas. Full article

The effective management of river networks in coastal plains is crucial to flood control, water quality improvement, and sustainable flow distribution. This study aims to optimize the hydrodynamic performance of a plain river network in eastern China through water diversion and circulation scheduling, addressing challenges such as channel narrowing and sedimentation. This research study utilized a partitioned water allocation approach modeled in MIKE11 to simulate the effects of various diversion projects, including locks and connecting rivers, on the primary conveyance channel and supporting rivers. The simulation results indicated that flow velocities exceeded 0.1 m/s in most rivers, with significant improvements in flood discharge and water quality in the main conveyance channel and one supporting river. However, some sections of the network showed poor hydrodynamic performance due to narrow channels, encroachment, and sedimentation, and smaller rivers exhibited inadequate flow capacity. The findings provide critical insights for optimizing hydrodynamic regulation in coastal plain river systems, emphasizing the need to address specific issues to enhance overall network performance and flood resilience. Full article

Existing wet tropical urban drainage systems often fail to accommodate runoff generated during extreme rainfall. Water-sensitive urban design (WSUD) systems have the potential to retrofit the existing urban drainage system by enhancing infiltration and retention functions. However, studies supporting this assumption were based on temperate or arid climatic conditions, raising questions about its relevance in wet tropical catchments. To answer these questions, in this study a comprehensive modelling study of WSUD effectiveness in a tropical environment was implemented. Engineers Park, a small sub-catchment of 0.27 km² at Saltwater Creek, Cairns, Queensland, Australia was the study site in which the flood mitigation capabilities of grey and WSUD systems under major (1% Annual Exceedance Probability—AEP), moderate (20% AEP), and minor (63.2% AEP) magnitudes of rainfall were evaluated. A detailed one-dimensional (1D) and coupled 1D2D hydrodynamic model in MIKE+ were developed and deployed for this study. The results highlighted that the existing grey infrastructure within the catchment underperformed during major events resulting in high peak flows and overland flow, while minor rainfall events increased channel flow and shifted the location of flooding. However, the integration of WSUD with grey infrastructure reduced peak flow by 0% to 42%, total runoff volume by 0.9% to 46%, and the flood extent ratio to catchment area from 0.3% to 1.1%. Overall, the WSUD integration positively contributed to reduced flooding in this catchment, highlighting its potential applicability in tropical catchments subject to intense rainfall events. However, careful consideration is required before over-generalization of these results, since the study area is small. The results of this study can be used in similar study sites by decision-makers for planning and catchment management purposes, but with careful interpretation. Full article

Constructions located in rivers play a critical role in mitigating flood risks and supporting sustainable economic development. However, the specific impacts of bridge construction on local flood dynamics have not been thoroughly examined. This study addresses this research gap using hydrodynamic modeling with the one-dimensional MIKE11 module in MIKE Zero. A case study of the Nanyang (NY) Road Bridge in Zhejiang Province analyzed backwater effects at critical locations, including the Shili (SL) River outlet and Chengqing (CQ) Harbor. Unsteady flow simulations quantified changes in backwater height and backwater length upstream and downstream of the bridge, assessing their influence on flood conveyance capacity. The results indicate a narrowing of the river channel by approximately 4.8 m at the bridge location. Additionally, under flood conditions corresponding to 5-year, 10-year, and 20-year return periods, upstream water levels increased by 1 cm (6.53 m), 4 cm (7.15 m), and 5 cm (7.75 m), respectively. This research provides valuable insights and a scientific basis for developing flood control strategies, optimizing bridge design, and planning infrastructure projects, thereby enhancing regional flood safety and supporting sustainable economic development. Full article

Effective flood management requires a comprehensive understanding of interactions between multiple flooding sources. This study investigates compound flooding in the Brisbane River Estuary (BRE), Australia, using the MIKE 21 hydrodynamic model to assess the combined effects of tidal and riverine processes on flood extent and water levels. Unlike conventional studies that evaluate these factors separately, this research quantifies the impact of boundary condition variations at the Moreton Bay entrance on flood modelling accuracy. The model was calibrated by adjusting Manning’s n, achieving a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (E_ns) ranging from 0.84 to 0.95. Validation results show a 90% agreement between the simulated and observed 2011 flood extent. The findings highlight the critical role of tidal boundary conditions, as their exclusion led to a 0.62 m and 0.12 m reduction in flood levels at Jindalee and Brisbane City gauges, respectively. This study provides valuable insights for improving flood risk assessment, model accuracy, and decision-making in estuarine flood management. Full article

Under the carbon neutrality framework, multiple coastal nuclear power plants in China have received construction approval. This development has drawn increased attention to the impact of thermal discharge on the marine environment. However, research on the diffusion effects caused by different thermal discharge configurations remains limited. This study focused on the Jinqimen Nuclear Power Plant. It employed the MIKE 3 (2014) three-dimensional numerical model, combined with field observations, to systematically investigate thermal plume dispersion. Specifically, it examined the effects of different jet angles at the discharge outlet (0°, 30°, 45°, 60°, 90°, and free diffusion conditions). The results indicate that the jet angle significantly influences the thermal rise envelope area and thermal stratification characteristics. Under free diffusion conditions (without jet velocity), the thermal rise area is the largest, with high-temperature zones concentrated near the surface. As the jet angle increases from 0° to 90°, the area of low-temperature rise gradually decreases, while the area of high-temperature rise expands. Among all tested configurations, the 30° jet angle exhibits the best overall performance. It demonstrates high thermal diffusion efficiency and strong heat dilution capacity. Moreover, it results in relatively smaller temperature rise areas at the surface, middle, and bottom layers. Additionally, tidal dynamics directly affect the thermal dispersion pattern. Smaller high-temperature rise areas are observed during peak flood and ebb tides. In contrast, heat accumulation is more likely to occur during slack tide periods. This study provides a scientific basis for optimizing the layout of nuclear power plant discharge outlets. It also serves as an important reference for mitigating thermal pollution and reducing ecological impacts of coastal nuclear power plants. Full article

Under the influence of climate change, extreme rainfall events (EREs) have become increasingly frequent. The urban waterlogging caused by these events has a particularly significant impact on cities with flat terrain and inadequate surface runoff dynamics. This study proposes a Coordinated Regulation of Storage and Discharge Mode (CRSD) tailored for plain cities. It establishes an evaluation system for CRSD based on regional rainwater flood carrying capacity, drainage capacity, and regional value, thereby assigning customized storage and drainage strategies to different urban areas. The model optimizes the relationship between storage and drainage across regions based on the fundamental principles of CRSD and establishes dynamic cross-regional water distribution rules according to optimization objectives. Finally, CRSD is validated using the MIKE models. The results indicate that as the rainfall return period increases, the area affected by urban waterlogging expands, though the proportion of waterlogging across various severity levels remains stable. CRSD can effectively alleviate urban waterlogging caused by EREs, with waterlogging reduction percentages ranging from 12.21% to 18.50%. Among the optimization schemes, Safe Consumption (SC) delivers the best overall performance, reducing waterlogging by up to 1.80 km² under 500 yr. The Average Pressure (AP) performs best in high-value areas, reducing waterlogging by up to 1.96 km² under the same return period. This study advances urban flood management by integrating cross-regional coordination mechanisms with blue–green–grey infrastructure, providing a replicable strategy for flatland cities to cope with the increasing challenges of EREs. Full article

As a critical intervention for enhancing inland navigation efficiency, waterway regulation projects profoundly modify riverine hydrodynamic conditions while optimizing navigability. This study employs the MIKE21 hydrodynamic model to establish a two-dimensional numerical framework for assessing hydrological alterations induced by channel regulation in the Hui River, China. Through comparative simulations of pre- and post-project scenarios across dry, normal, and wet hydrological years, the research quantifies impacts on water levels, flow velocity distribution, and geomorphic stability. Results reveal that channel dredging and realignment reduced upstream water levels by up to 0.26 m during drought conditions, while concentrating flow velocities in the main channel by 0.5 m/s. However, localized hydrodynamic restructuring triggered bank erosion risks at cut-off bends and sedimentation in anchorage basins. The integrated analysis demonstrates that although regulation measures enhance flood conveyance and navigation capacity, they disrupt sediment transport equilibrium, destabilize riparian ecosystems, and compromise hydrological monitoring consistency. To mitigate these trade-offs, the study proposes design optimizations—including ecological revetments and adaptive dredging strategies—coupled with enhanced hydrodynamic monitoring and riparian habitat restoration. These findings provide a scientific foundation for balancing navigation improvements with the sustainable management of fluvial systems. Full article

With the frequent occurrence of extreme weather events worldwide, the compound frequency of drought and flood events has significantly increased, imposing multidimensional pressures on agricultural water resource management. Agricultural water consumption accounts for approximately 70%, with severe waste, as a large amount of water is lost during transmission and distribution. Faced with increasingly severe and frequent extreme weather, traditional drainage systems may become unsustainable. Identifying the factors influencing drainage time is crucial for efficient drainage. The MIKE URBAN model has significant potential in farmland waterlogging simulation and drainage network optimization. This study validated the model’s accuracy based on infiltration well overflow capacity experiments, with Average Relative Error (ARE) values of 2.29%, 6.52%, 4.41%, 3.17%, 4.37%, and 5.69%, demonstrating good simulation accuracy. The MIKE URBAN model was used to simulate drainage networks, explore factors affecting drainage time, establish an annual cost system for the drainage network, and optimize the network using a genetic algorithm with the objective of minimizing annual costs. Research findings: There is a clear negative correlation between the maximum inflow of infiltration wells and drainage time. As inflow increases, drainage becomes faster, but beyond 0.0075 m³/s (27 m³/h), the efficiency gains level off. This indicates that selecting infiltration wells with at least a 20% opening ratio is essential. Similarly, increasing the collector’s diameter enhances drainage efficiency significantly, though the effect follows a diminishing return pattern. While smaller lateral spacing improves local water collection, it may lead to flow congestion if the collector is undersized; conversely, larger spacing increases drainage paths and delays, even if the collector is large. An optimal spacing range of 100–150 m is suggested alongside the collector diameter. Lateral diameter also affects performance: increasing it reduces drainage time, but the benefit plateaus around 200 mm, making further enlargement cost-ineffective. The genetic algorithm helped to optimize the drainage network design. Utilizing the genetic algorithm, the drainage network was optimized in just 15 iterations. The fitness function value rapidly decreased from 351,000 CNY to 55,000 CNY and then stabilized, reducing the annual cost from 59,640.67 CNY to 45,337.86 CNY—a 24% savings—highlighting the approach’s effectiveness in designing efficient and economical farmland drainage systems. This study has shown that the simulation-based optimization of drainage networks provides a more rational and cost-effective approach to planning drainage infrastructure. Full article

As the largest inland river in China, the Tarim River’s flood events significantly influence its riverbed formation. This paper took the Alar to Xinquman section of the Tarim River as the study area. The study area’s digital elevation model of the river was constructed using historical Google images and Copernicus DEM 30. Six different flood events were selected, corresponding to flood events with varying sediment loads, flood volumes, and peak flow volumes. The MIKE 21 software was used to simulate and investigate the response of the riverbed shape to different flood events. The experimental findings indicate that the sand content constitutes a pivotal factor in the formation of the riverbed during flood events. Flood sediment load goes through stages linked to changes in riverbed erosion and deposition. The combination of high peak flow and bed-forming flow after the peak effectively shapes the central channel’s morphology. The fourth type of flood event had the highest sediment transport coefficient Φ among the six types of floods and caused the most significant scouring effect on the riverbed under low sediment load conditions. Full article

Flash floods are highly destructive natural disasters, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions like Egypt, where data scarcity poses significant challenges for analysis. This study focuses on the Wadi Al-Barud basin in Egypt’s Central Eastern Desert (CED), where a severe flash flood occurred on 26–27 October 2016. This flash flood event, characterized by moderate rainfall (16.4 mm/day) and a total volume of 8.85 × 10⁶ m³, caused minor infrastructure damage, with 78.4% of the rainfall occurring within 6 h. A significant portion of floodwaters was stored in dam reservoirs, reducing downstream impacts. Multi-source data, including Landsat 8 OLI imagery, ALOS-PALSAR radar data, Global Precipitation Measurements—Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Final Run (GPM-FR) precipitation data, geologic maps, field measurements, and Triangulated Irregular Networks (TINs), were integrated to analyze the flash flood event. The Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method integrated with several hydrologic models, including the Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS), Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), and European Hydrological System Model (MIKE-SHE), was applied to evaluate flood forecasting, watershed management, and runoff estimation, with results cross-validated using TIN-derived DEMs, field measurements, and Landsat 8 imagery. The SCS-CN method proved effective, with percentage differences of 5.4% and 11.7% for reservoirs 1 and 3, respectively. High-resolution GPM-FR rainfall data and ALOS-derived soil texture mapping were particularly valuable for flash flood analysis in data-scarce regions. The study concluded that the existing protection plan is sufficient for 25- and 50-year return periods but inadequate for 100-year events, especially under climate change. Recommendations include constructing additional reservoirs (0.25 × 10⁶ m³ and 1 × 10⁶ m³) along Wadi Kahlah and Al-Barud Delta, reinforcing the Safaga–Qena highway, and building protective barriers to divert floodwaters. The methodology is applicable to similar flash flood events globally, and advancements in geomatics and datasets will enhance future flood prediction and management. Full article

Coastal waters, particularly in micro-tidal estuaries, are highly vulnerable to water quality changes driven by salinity intrusion. Effective coastal water management requires a detailed understanding of the dynamic processes in estuaries to mitigate the effects of salinity intrusion. This study focuses on the Brisbane River estuary (BRE), Australia, to investigate salinity intrusion and flushing time under varying freshwater inflows. A coupled MIKE 21 FM hydrodynamic (HD) and transport (TR) model was used to assess salinity transport during a neap–spring tidal cycle. The 2D model was calibrated and validated for the 2008 and 2011 flow events using field data on water levels and salinity. Results show an increase in tidal amplitude landward under low river flow conditions, while tidal damping was observed under higher river discharge, reducing the BRE salinity during spring tides. This study found that salinity intrusion is highly sensitive to freshwater availability, with river discharges of 150 m³/s and 175 m³/s identified as critical thresholds to maintain salinity levels below 1 PSU at the estuary mouth during ebb and flood tides, respectively. Flushing time analysis indicates that the BRE takes approximately 302 h to completely displace saline water when the river discharge is optimized at 150 m³/s. Modifying the BRE estuary mouth—through channel widening or deepening—enhanced the flushing process, significantly reducing salinity levels. This study demonstrates that optimizing freshwater discharge and modifying the estuary mouth can provide effective solutions for managing salinity intrusion in micro-tidal estuaries. Full article

This study reports on the impact of rainfall patterns and land surface changes on flood dynamics in the Meijiang River Basin, located in the upper reaches of the Ganjiang River. We formulated a range of rainfall patterns and spatial distribution scenarios and employed the MIKE SHE model to evaluate variations in flood volume, flood peak, and the timing of flood peaks. We found that under comparable areal rainfall conditions, flood volumes fluctuated by up to 6.22% among the different rainfall patterns, whereas flood peaks exhibited differences of up to 36.23%. When the rainfall center moved from upstream to downstream, both flood volume and flood peak initially increased before decreasing, with maximum values of 4.2 billion m³ and 4900 m³/s, respectively. We selected three basin scales (i.e., 10,000, 1000, and 100 km²) for comparative analysis. In the period between 1985 and 2020, the changes in land surface conditions resulted in decreases in the flood peaks of the three basins by 7.61, 11.53, and 15.79%, respectively; a reduction in the flood volumes of the three basins by 6.58, 9.60, and 10.48%, respectively; and delayed peak times by 3, 2, and 2 h, respectively. The results of this study show the significant influence exerted by rainfall patterns, the location of the rainfall centers, and the impact of changes in land surface conditions on flood processes. In particular, when the area of the basin was reduced, the influence of the underlying surface was more obvious. These results also show that flood prediction needs to consider the complex interaction of multiple factors. Full article

The paper proposes a ‘Systemic Multi-methodological Framework’ for multi-methodological management science/operational research (MS/OR) interventions. Based on John Mingers’ framework for mapping MS/OR methodologies/methods/techniques, we advance a systemic framework to enhance systemic intervention. The framework draws from the key elements of Robert Flood and Mike Jackson’s and Mingers’ concepts for multi-methodological practice. We discuss both the practical difficulties of applying Mingers’ notional systems in the real world and the cultural and psychological obstacles that prevent the viability of a multi-method and multi-paradigm intervention. We discuss the insights that are useful for overcoming the obstacles inherent to a multi-methodological intervention. By proposing an original framework, we aim to contribute to the debate about increasing systemic interventions and multi-methodological practice in MS/OR. Full article