Search Results (18)

This study proposes a hybrid forecasting framework that integrates Kalman Filtering (KF), Markov Switching (MS), and nonlinear recurrent learning for stock-index prediction. The KF component smooths short-term price noise, the MS model identifies latent return–volatility regimes, and the LSTM/GRU components learn nonlinear temporal patterns from regime-conditioned information. The framework is evaluated using the CSI 300, S&P 500, and Nikkei 225 indices through forecasting-accuracy measures, Bootstrap Diebold–Mariano tests with Modified Bayes Factor evidence, out-of-sample trading simulations, and robustness checks. The empirical results show that regime conditioning is the primary source of forecasting and economic improvement. KF–MS–LSTM performs best for the CSI 300 and Standard MS performs strongest for the S&P 500, while KF–MS–LSTM and KF–MS–GRU are more competitive for the Nikkei 225. In contrast, models without regime information, including pure LSTM/GRU and the standalone Transformer, generally exhibit weaker forecasting and trading performance. The findings suggest that latent market-state information is more important than neural-network complexity alone for robust financial forecasting, while the incremental value of Kalman filtering and recurrent learning remains market dependent. Overall, the results support regime-aware forecasting as an interpretable and economically meaningful approach for stock-index prediction under heterogeneous market environments. Full article

In complex maritime environments, the safety of path planning for Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USVs) remains a significant challenge. Existing methods for handling dynamic obstacles often suffer from inadequate predictability and generate non-smooth trajectories. To address these issues, this paper proposes a reliable hybrid path planning approach that integrates a reinforcement learning-enhanced A* algorithm with an improved Dynamic Window Approach (DWA). Specifically, the A* algorithm is augmented by incorporating a dynamic five-neighborhood search mechanism, a reinforcement learning-based adaptive weighting strategy, and a path post-optimization procedure. These enhancements collectively shorten the path length and significantly improve trajectory smoothness. While ensuring that the global path avoids dynamic obstacles smoothly, a Kalman Filter (KF) is integrated into the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network to preprocess historical data. This mechanism suppresses transient outliers and stabilizes the trajectory prediction of dynamic obstacles. Moreover, the evaluation function of the DWA is refined by incorporating the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea (COLREGs) constraints, enabling compliant navigation behaviors. Simulation results in MATLAB demonstrate that the enhanced A* algorithm better conforms to the kinematic model of the USVs. The improved DWA significantly reduces collision risks, thereby ensuring safer navigation in dynamic marine environments. Full article

This study aims to reconstruct NDI45 missing values due to cloud cover while outlining the importance of vegetation health for the climate–carbon cycle and the benefits of the NDI45 index for high canopy area indices. The methods include a novel hybrid framework that combines a deterministic Kalman filter (KF) and a clustering-based LSTM network to generate gap-free NDI45 series with 20 m spatial and 5-day temporal resolution. The innovation of the applied method relies on achieving a single-sensor workflow, provides a pixel-level uncertainty map, and minimizes LSTM overfitting through clustering based on a correlation threshold. In the northern Pampas (South America), this hybrid approach reduces the MAE by 22–35% on average and narrows the 95% confidence interval by 25–40% compared to the Kalman filter or LSTM alone. The three-dimensional spatio-temporal analysis demonstrates that the KF–LSTM hybrid provides better spatial homogeneity and reliability across the entire study area. The proposed framework can generate gap-free, high-resolution NDI45 time series with quantified uncertainties, enabling more reliable detection of vegetation stress, yield fluctuations, and long-term resilience trends. These capabilities make the method directly applicable to operational drought monitoring, crop insurance modeling, and climate risk assessment in agricultural systems, particularly in regions prone to frequent cloud cover. The framework can be further extended by including radar backscatter and multi-model ensembles, thus providing a promising basis for the reconstruction of global, high-resolution vegetation time series. Full article

Accurately predicting livestock movement is a cornerstone of precision agriculture, enabling smarter resource management, improved animal welfare, and enhanced productivity. However, the unpredictable and dynamic nature of livestock behavior poses significant challenges for traditional mobility prediction models. This study introduces LSTM-H, a hybrid deep learning model that combines the sequential learning power of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks with the real-time correction capabilities of Kalman Filters (KFs) to enhance livestock movement prediction within UAV-based monitoring frameworks. The results demonstrate that LSTM-H achieves a mean error of just 11.51 m for the first step and 40.68 m over a 30-step prediction horizon, outperforming state-of-the-art models by 4.3–14.8 times. Furthermore, LSTM-H exhibits robustness across noisy and dynamic conditions, with a 90% probability of errors below 13 m, as shown through cumulative error analysis. This enhanced accuracy enables UAVs to optimize flight trajectories, reducing energy consumption and improving monitoring efficiency in real-world agricultural settings. By bridging deep learning and adaptive filtering, LSTM-H not only enhances prediction accuracy but also paves the way for scalable, real-time livestock and UAV monitoring systems with transformative potential for precision agriculture. Full article

State-of-energy (SOE) estimation helps to enhance the safety of battery operation and predict vehicle range. However, the voltage plateau of the LiFePO4 (LFP) battery presents a significant challenge for SOE estimation. Therefore, this paper introduces a significantly varying mechanical force feature to tackle the flat voltage curve in the mid-SOE region. A fusion model that integrates a bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) network, particle swarm optimization (PSO), and Kalman filter (KF) algorithm is proposed for SOE estimation. The BiLSTM is applied to fully capture the temporal dependencies from inputs to output over both local and long cycles. Subsequently, PSO is employed to optimize the parameters of KF, which is utilized to smooth the results of the BiLSTM network, thereby achieving highly accurate SOE estimation. Experimental results across different operating conditions and temperatures reveal that the introduction of mechanical force significantly improves SOE estimation accuracy. Compared to models using only traditional electrical and thermal features, the model with the introduction of mechanical force achieves average improvements of 67.06%, 66.38%, and 66.46% for the root mean square error (RMSE), maximum absolute error (MAXE), and mean absolute error (MAE), respectively. Moreover, the generalizability and robustness of the proposed method are further confirmed by the comparison of different models and preload forces. Full article

The accurate prediction of space target trajectories is critical for aerospace defense and space situational awareness, yet it remains challenging due to complex nonlinear dynamics, measurement noise, and environmental uncertainties. This study proposes a confidence-based dual-model fusion framework that separately processes linear and nonlinear trajectory components to enhance prediction accuracy and robustness. The Attention-Based Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (AC-LSTM) network is designed to capture nonlinear motion patterns by leveraging temporal attention mechanisms and convolutional layers while also estimating confidence levels via a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR)-based multitask learning approach. In parallel, the Kalman Filter (KF) efficiently models quasi-linear motion components, dynamically estimating its confidence through real-time residual monitoring. A confidence-weighted fusion mechanism adaptively integrates the predictions from both models, significantly improving overall prediction performance. Experimental results on simulated radar-based noisy trajectory data demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms conventional algorithms, offering superior precision and robustness. This approach holds great potential for applications in pace situational awareness, orbital object tracking, and space trajectory prediction. Full article

In order to meet the current expanding market demand for knitwear, high-speed automatic knitting machines with “one-line knit to shape” capability are widely used. However, the frequent emergence of floating-yarn stacking anomalies during the high-speed knitting process will seriously hinder the normal reciprocating motion of the needles and cause a catastrophic fracture of the whole machine needle plate, greatly affecting the efficiency of the knitting machines. To overcome the limitations of the existing physical-probe detection method, in this work, we propose a visual floating-yarn anomaly recognition framework based on a CNN-BiLSTM network with the knit feature sequence (CNN-BiLSTM-KFS), which is a unique sequence of knitting yarn positions depending on the knitting status. The sequence of knitting characteristics contains the head speed, the number of rows, and the head movements of the automatic knitting machine, enabling the model to achieve more accurate and efficient floating-yarn identification in complex knitting structures by utilizing contextual information from knitting programs. Compared to the traditional probe inspection method, the framework is highly versatile as it does not need to be adjusted to the specifics of the automatic knitting machine during the production process. The recognition model is trained at the design and sampling stages, and the resulting model can be applied to different automatic knitting machines to recognize floating yarns occurring in various knitting structures. The experimental results show that the improved network spends 75% less time than the probe-based detection, has a higher overall average detection accuracy of 93% compared to the original network, and responds faster to floating yarn anomalies. The as-proposed CNN-BiLSTM-KFS floating-yarn visual detection method not only enhances the reliability of floating-yarn anomaly detection, but also reduces the time and cost required for production adjustments. The results of this study will bring significant improvements in the field of automatic floating-yarn detection and have the potential to promote the application of smart technologies in the knitting industry. Full article

Maritime traffic is increasing more and more, creating more complex navigation environments for ships. Ship trajectory prediction based on historical AIS data is a vital method of reducing navigation risks and enhancing the efficiency of maritime traffic control. At present, employing machine learning or deep learning techniques to construct predictive models based on AIS data has become a focal point in ship trajectory prediction research. This paper systematically evaluates various trajectory prediction methods, spanning classical machine learning approaches and emerging deep learning techniques, to uncover their respective merits and drawbacks. In this work, a variety of studies were investigated that applied different algorithms in ship trajectory prediction, including regression models (RMs), artificial neural networks (ANNs), Kalman filtering (KF), and random forests (RFs) in machine learning, along with deep learning such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs), recurrent neural networks (RNNs), long short-term memory (LSTM), gate recurrent unit (GRU) networks, and sequence-to-sequence (Seq2seq) networks. The performance of predictive models based on different algorithms in trajectory prediction tasks was graded and analyzed. Among the existing studies, deep learning methods exhibit significant performance and considerable potential application value for maritime traffic systems, which can be assessed by future work on ship trajectory prediction research. Full article

With global warming and intensified human activities, extreme convective precipitation has become one of the most frequent natural disasters. An accurate and reliable assessment of severe convective precipitation events can support social stability and economic development. In order to investigate the accuracy enhancement methods and data fusion strategies for the assessment of severe convective precipitation events, this study is driven by the horizontal reflectance factor (Z_H) and differential reflectance (Z_DR) of the dual-polarization radar. This research work utilizes microphysical information of convective storms provided by radar variables to construct the precipitation event assessment model. Considering the problems of high dimensionality of variable data and low computational efficiency, this study proposes a dual-polarization radar echo-data-layering strategy. Combined with the results of mutual information (MI), this study constructs Bayes–Kalman filter (KF) models (RF, SVR, GRU, LSTM) for the assessment of severe convective precipitation events. Finally, this study comparatively analyzes the evaluation effectiveness and computational efficiency of different models. The results show that the data-layering strategy is able to reduce the data dimensions of 256 × 256 × 34,978 to 5 × 2213, which greatly improves the computational efficiency. In addition, the correlation coefficient of interval III–V calibration period is increased to 0.9, and the overall assessment accuracy of the model is good. Among them, the Bayes–KF-LSTM model has the best assessment effect, and the Bayes–KF-RF has the highest computational efficiency. Further, five typical precipitation events are selected for validation in this study. The stratified precipitation dataset agrees well with the near-surface precipitation, and the model’s assessment values are close to the observed values. This study completely utilizes the microphysical information offered by dual-polarized radar Z_H and Z_DR in precipitation event assessment, which provides a wide range of application possibilities for the assessment of severe convective precipitation events. Full article

This paper focuses on water quality prediction in the presence of a large number of missing values in water quality monitoring data. Current water quality monitoring data mostly come from different monitoring stations in different water bodies. As the duration of water quality monitoring increases, the complexity of water quality data also increases, and missing data is a common and difficult to avoid problem in water quality monitoring. In order to fully exploit the valuable features of the monitored data and improve the accuracy of water quality prediction models, we propose a long short-term memory (LSTM) encoder-decoder model that combines a Kalman filter (KF) with an attention mechanism. The Kalman filter in the model can quickly complete the reconstruction and pre-processing of hydrological data. The attention mechanism is added between the decoder and the encoder to solve the problem that traditional recursive neural network models lose long-range information and fully exploit the interaction information among high-dimensional covariate data. Using original data from the Haimen Bay water quality monitoring station in the Lianjiang River Basin for analysis, we trained and tested our model using detection data from 1 January 2019 to 30 June 2020 to predict future water quality. The results show that compared with traditional LSTM models, KF-LSTM models reduce the average absolute error ($MAE$) by 10%, the mean square error ($MSE$) by 21.2%, the root mean square error ($RMSE$) by 13.2%, while increasing the coefficient of determination ($R^2$) by 4.5%. This model is more suitable for situations where there are many missing values in water quality data, while providing new solutions for real-time management of urban aquatic environments. Full article

Human action recognition is a classical problem in computer vision and machine learning, and the task of effectively and efficiently recognising human actions is a concern for researchers. In this paper, we propose a key-frame-based approach to human action recognition. First, we designed a key-frame attention-based LSTM network (KF-LSTM) using the attention mechanism, which can be combined with LSTM to effectively recognise human action sequences by assigning different weight scale values to give more attention to key frames. In addition, we designed a new key-frame extraction method by combining an automatic segmentation model based on the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) algorithm and the K-means clustering algorithm. This method effectively avoids the possibility of inter-frame confusion in the temporal sequence of key frames of different actions and ensures that the subsequent human action recognition task proceeds smoothly. The dataset used in the experiments was acquired with an IMU sensor-based motion capture device, and we separately extracted the motion features of each joint using a manual method and then performed collective inference. Full article

The solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) system is complicated because the characteristics of gas, heat, and electricity are intricately coupled. During the operation of the system, problems such as frequent failures and a decrease in the stack’s performance have caused the SOFC system to work less well and greatly shortened the SOFC’s practical life. As such, it is essential to accurately forecast its remaining useful life (RUL) to make the system last longer and cut down on economic losses. In this study, both model-based and data-driven prediction methods are used to make predictions about the RUL of SOFC. First, the linear degradation model of the SOFC system is established by introducing degradation resistance as the index of health status. Using the Kalman filtering (KF) method, the health status of SOFC is evaluated online. The results of the health state estimation indicated that the KF algorithm is accurate enough to provide a good basis for the model-based RUL prediction. Then, a long short-term memory (LSTM) network-recursive (data-driven) method is presented for RUL prognostics. The multi-step-ahead recursive strategy of updating the network state with actual test data improves the prediction accuracy. Finally, a comparison is made between the LSTM network prediction approach suggested and the model-based KF prognostics. The results of the experiments indicate that the LSTM network is more suitable for RUL prediction than the KF algorithm. Full article

This paper presents an autonomous unmanned-aerial-vehicle (UAV) tracking system based on an improved long and short-term memory (LSTM) Kalman filter (KF) model. The system can estimate the three-dimensional (3D) attitude and precisely track the target object without manual intervention. Specifically, the YOLOX algorithm is employed to track and recognize the target object, which is then combined with the improved KF model for precise tracking and recognition. In the LSTM-KF model, three different LSTM networks (f, Q, and R) are adopted to model a nonlinear transfer function to enable the model to learn rich and dynamic Kalman components from the data. The experimental results disclose that the improved LSTM-KF model exhibits higher recognition accuracy than the standard LSTM and the independent KF model. It verifies the robustness, effectiveness, and reliability of the autonomous UAV tracking system based on the improved LSTM-KF model in object recognition and tracking and 3D attitude estimation. Full article

Research on batteries’ State of Charge (SOC) estimation for equivalent circuit models based on the Kalman Filter (KF) framework and machine learning algorithms remains relatively limited. Most studies are focused on a few machine learning algorithms and do not present comprehensive analysis and comparison. Furthermore, most of them focus on obtaining the state space parameters of the Kalman filter frame algorithm models using machine learning algorithms and then substituting the state space parameters into the Kalman filter frame algorithm to estimate the SOC. Such algorithms are highly coupled, and present high complexity and low practicability. This study aims to integrate machine learning with the Kalman filter frame algorithm, and to estimate the final SOC by using different combinations of the input, output, and intermediate variable values of five Kalman filter frame algorithms as the input of the machine learning algorithms of six main streams. These are: linear regression, support vector Regression, XGBoost, AdaBoost, random forest, and LSTM; the algorithm coupling is lower for two-way parameter adjustment and is not applied between the machine learning and Kalman filtering framework algorithms. The results demonstrate that the integrated learning algorithm significantly improves the estimation accuracy when compared to the pure Kalman filter framework or the machine learning algorithms. Among the various integrated algorithms, the random forest and Kalman filter framework presents the highest estimation accuracy along with good real-time performance. Therefore, it can be implemented in various engineering applications. Full article

The WRF-CMAQ (Weather research and forecast-community multiscale air quality) simulation system is commonly used as the first prediction model of air pollutant concentration, but its prediction accuracy is not ideal. Considering the complexity of air quality prediction and the high-performance advantages of deep learning methods, this paper proposes a second prediction method of air pollutant concentration based on the Kalman-attention-LSTM (Kalman filter, attention and long short-term memory) model. Firstly, an exploratory analysis is made between the actual environmental measurement data from the monitoring site and the first forecast data from the WRF-CMAQ model. An air quality index (AQI) was used as a measure of air pollution degree. Then, the Kalman filter (KF) is used to fuse the actual environmental measurement data from the monitoring site and the first forecast results from the WRF-CMAQ model. Finally, the long short-term memory (LSTM) model with the attention mechanism is used as a single factor prediction model for an AQI prediction. In the prediction of O₃ which is the main pollutant affecting the AQI, the results show that the second prediction based on the Kalman-attention-LSTM model features a better fitting effect, compared with the six models. In the first prediction (from the WRF-CMAQ model), for the RNN, GRU, LSTM, attention-LSTM and Kalman-LSTM, SE improved by 83.26%, 51.64%, 43.58%, 45%, 26% and 29%, respectively, RMSE improved by 83.16%, 51.52%, 43.21%, 44.59%, 26.07% and 28.32%, respectively, MAE improved by 80.49%, 56.96%, 46.75%, 49.97%, 26.04% and 27.36%, respectively, and R-Square improved by 85.3%, 16.4%, 10.3%, 11.5%, 2.7% and 3.3%, respectively. However, the prediction results for the Kalman-attention-LSTM model proposed in this paper for other five different pollutants (SO₂, NO₂, PM₁₀, PM_2.5 and CO) all have smaller SE, RMSE and MAE, and better R-square. The accuracy improvement is significant and has good application prospects. Full article