Search Results (18)

We examine whether aggregate “music mood” derived from globally popular songs can help forecast primary equity issuance. We build a Friday-anchored weekly panel that merges SEC EDGAR counts of priced Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) with features from the Spotify Daily Top 200 (audio descriptors such as valence, energy, danceability, tempo, loudness, etc.) and Genius-scraped lyrics. We extract lyric sentiment by tokenizing Genius-scraped lyrics and aggregating lexicon-based affect scores (valence and arousal) into popularity-weighted weekly indices. To address sparsity and regime shifts in issuance, we train a leakage-safe Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network on a smoothed target—the forward 4-week sum of IPOs—and obtain next-week forecasts by dividing the predicted sum by 4. On a chronological holdout, a single LSTM with look-back K = 8 outperforms strong baselines—reducing MAE by 13.9%, RMSE by 15.9%, and mean Poisson deviance by 27.6% relative to the best baseline in each metric. Furthermore, we adopt SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to explain our LSTM model, showing that IPO persistence remains the dominant driver, but music and lyrics covariates contribute incremental and robust signal. These results suggest that aggregate music sentiment contains economically meaningful information about near-term IPO activity. Full article

We have developed a comprehensive mathematical framework that delineates the complete transition of a firm from private to public ownership. This framework explicitly formalizes the endogenous decision to list, pre-listing restructuring, regulatory feasibility constraints, information production, pricing and allocation mechanisms, and post-listing market dynamics. A unified structure is employed to represent traditional IPOs, direct listings, and de-SPAC mergers. The proposed framework integrates the concepts of information asymmetry, free-float constraints, and market impact with equilibrium offer prices, first-day returns, and post-listing volatility. This integration enables the formulation of testable predictions across a range of listing mechanisms. Full article

The South China Sea (SCS) sea surface temperature (SST) plays a crucial modulating effect on the climate of East Asia. While the interannual variability of South China Sea SST has been extensively examined, the decadal-scale linkages and underlying physical mechanisms between South China Sea SST and the three major ocean basins (the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans) remain inadequately comprehended. To fill the gap, the study investigates the decadal variability of winter SST in the SCS during 1940–2023, utilizing long-term observational datasets and methods such as empirical orthogonal function decomposition, regression analysis, and teleconnections analysis. The first dominant mode of this decadal variability is characterized by basin-warming across the SCS, which is mainly driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO, r = 0.62, p < 0.05). Specifically, the AMO imposes its remote influence on the SCS through three distinct pathways: the tropical Pacific pathway, the North Pacific pathway, and the tropical Indian Ocean pathway. These pathways collectively trigger an anomalous cyclone in the western North Pacific and SCS, and further induce basin-wide SST warming via a positive feedback that includes SST, sea level pressure, cloud cover, and longwave radiation. The second leading mode of SCS winter SST decadal variability displays a north–south dipole pattern, which is positively correlated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO, r1 = 0.85, p1 < 0.05). Notably, this South China Sea SST dipole–IPO relationship weakened significantly after 1985 (r2 = 0.23, p2 < 0.05), related to the strengthening of the anomalous anticyclone over the SCS and the weakening of the anomalous cyclone over the tropical Indian Ocean. Furthermore, both the AMO and IPO influence the SST in the northern SCS by regulating wind field anomalies in the bifurcation region of the North Equatorial Current. This wind-driven modulation subsequently affects the intensity of Kuroshio intrusion into the SCS. These findings provide a novel mechanistic pathway for interpreting decadal-scale climate variability over East Asia, with implications for improving long-term climate prediction in the region. Full article

With the widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), optimizing their charging and discharging strategies to improve energy efficiency and extend battery life has become a focal point of current research. Traditional charging and discharging strategies often fail to adequately consider the battery’s state of health (SOH), resulting in accelerated battery aging and decreased efficiency. In response, this paper proposes a safe reinforcement learning–based optimization method for EV charging and discharging strategies, aimed at minimizing charging and discharging costs while accounting for battery SOH. First, a novel battery health status prediction model based on physics-informed hybrid neural networks (PHNN) is designed. Then, the EV charging and discharging decision-making problem, considering battery health status, is formulated as a constrained Markov decision process, and an interior-point policy optimization (IPO) algorithm based on long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks is proposed to solve it. The algorithm filters out strategies that violate constraints by introducing a logarithmic barrier function. Finally, the experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method significantly enhances battery life while maintaining maximum economic benefits during the EV charging and discharging process. This research provides a novel solution for intelligent and personalized charging strategies for EVs, which is of great significance for promoting the sustainable development of new energy vehicles. Full article

Accurate predictions of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) aftermarket performance are essential for making informed investment decisions in the financial sector. This paper attempts to predict IPO short-term underperformance during a month post-listing. The current research landscape lacks modern models that address the needs of small and imbalanced datasets relevant to emerging markets, as well as the risk preferences of investors. To fill this gap, we present a practical framework utilizing tree-based ensemble learning, including Bagging Classifier (BC), Random Forest (RF), AdaBoost (Ada), Gradient Boosting (GB), XGBoost (XG), Stacking Classifier (SC), and Extra Trees (ET), with Decision Tree (DT) as a base estimator. The framework leverages data-driven methodologies to optimize decision-making in complex financial systems, integrating ANOVA F-value for feature selection, Randomized Search for hyperparameter optimization, and SMOTE for class balance. The framework’s effectiveness is assessed using a hand-collected dataset that includes features from both pre-IPO prospectus and firm-specific financial data. We thoroughly evaluate the results using single-split evaluation and 10-fold cross-validation analysis. For the single-split validation, ET achieves the highest accuracy of 86%, while for the 10-fold validation, BC achieves the highest accuracy of 70%. Additionally, we compare the results of the proposed framework with deep-learning models such as MLP, TabNet, and ANN to assess their effectiveness in handling IPO underperformance predictions. These results demonstrate the framework’s capability to enable robust data-driven decision-making processes in complex and dynamic financial environments, even with limited and imbalanced datasets. The framework also proposes a dynamic methodology named Investor Preference Prediction Framework (IPPF) to match tree-based ensemble models to investors’ risk preferences when predicting IPO underperformance. It concludes that different models may be suitable for various risk profiles. For the dataset at hand, ET and Ada are more appropriate for risk-averse investors, while BC is suitable for risk-tolerant investors. The results underscore the framework’s importance in improving IPO underperformance predictions, which can better inform investment strategies and decision-making processes. Full article

Addressing resource scarcity and climate change necessitates a transition to sustainable consumption and circular economy models, fostering environmental, social, and economic resilience. This study introduces a deep learning-based ensemble framework to optimize initial public offering (IPO) performance prediction while extending its application to circular economy processes, such as resource recovery and waste reduction. The framework incorporates advanced techniques, including hyperparameter optimization, dynamic metric adaptation (DMA), and the synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE), to address challenges such as class imbalance, risk-adjusted metric enhancement, and robust forecasting. Experimental results demonstrate high predictive performance, achieving an accuracy of 76%, precision of 83%, recall of 75%, and an AUC of 0.9038. Among ensemble methods, Bagging achieved the highest AUC (0.90), outperforming XGBoost (0.88) and random forest (0.75). Cross-validation confirmed the framework’s reliability with a median AUC of 0.85 across ten folds. When applied to circular economy scenarios, the model effectively predicted sustainability metrics, achieving R² values of 0.76 for both resource recovery and waste reduction with a low mean absolute error (MAE = 0.11). These results highlight the potential to align financial forecasting with environmental sustainability objectives. This study underscores the transformative potential of deep learning in addressing financial and sustainability challenges, demonstrating how AI-driven models can integrate economic and environmental goals. By enabling robust IPO predictions and enhancing circular economy outcomes, the proposed framework aligns with Industry 5.0’s vision for human-centric, data-driven, and sustainable industrial innovation, contributing to resilient economic growth and long-term environmental stewardship. Full article

This study presents a comprehensive analysis on the variations in the tropical cyclone (TC) frequencies during 1980–2021, including the linear trends, periodicities, and their variabilities on both global and basin-wise scales. An increasing trend in the annual number of global TCs is identified, with a significant rising trend in the numbers of tropical storms (maximum sustained wind $35 \mathrm{k}\mathrm{t}\mathrm{s}\le U_{max}<64 \mathrm{k}\mathrm{t}\mathrm{s}$) and intense typhoons ($U_{max}\ge 96 \mathrm{k}\mathrm{t}\mathrm{s}$) and a deceasing trend for weak typhoons ($64 \mathrm{k}\mathrm{t}\mathrm{s}\le U_{max}<96 \mathrm{k}\mathrm{t}\mathrm{s}$). There is no statistically significant trend shown in the global Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). On a regional scale, the Western North Pacific (WNP) and Eastern North Pacific (ENP) are the regions of the first- and second-largest numbers of TCs, respectively, while the increased TC activity in the North Atlantic (NA) contributes the most to the global increase in TCs. It is revealed in the wavelet transformation for periodicity analysis that the variations in the annual number of TCs with different intensities mostly show an inter-annual period of 3–7 years and an inter-decadal one of 10–13 years. The inter-annual and inter-decadal periods are consistent with those in the ENSO-related ocean drivers (via the Niño 3.4 index), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) index. The inter-decadal variation in 10–13 years is also observed in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) index and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) index, on the other hand, present the same inter-annual period of 7–10 years as that in the frequencies of all the named TCs in the NA. Further, the correlations between TC frequencies and ocean drivers are also quantified using the Pearson correlation coefficient. These findings contribute to an enhanced understanding of TC activity, thereby facilitating efforts to predict particular TC activity and mitigate the inflicted damage. Full article

By constructing a text quality analysis system and company quality analysis system based on a prospectus, the intelligent analysis method of investment banking IPO business risk is proposed based on the machine learning method and text analysis technology. Taking the Sci-Tech Innovation Board in China as a sample, the empirical analysis results show that the text quality and the company quality disclosed in the prospectus can affect the withdrawal rate of investment banking IPO business. By carrying out a text analysis and machine learning on the text quality and company quality, the risk of investment banking IPO business can be predicted intelligently and effectively. The research results can not only improve the business efficiency of investment banking IPO, and save resource cost, but also improve the standardization and authenticity of investment banking IPO business. Full article

This study uses machine learning to investigate the effects of firm and CEO characteristics on stock price crash risk by collecting massive data on publicly listed firms in China. The results show that eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) is the most effective model for predicting stock price crash risk, with relatively satisfactory performance. Meanwhile, the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method is used to interpret the importance of features. The results show that the average weekly return of a firm over a year (RET) contributes the most and is negatively associated with crash risk, followed by Sigma, IPO age, and firm size. We also found that, among CEO characteristics, CEO pay contributes substantially to crash risk at the firm level. Our findings have important implications for research into the impact of firm and CEO characteristics on stock price crash risk and provide a novel way for investors to plan their investment decisions and risk-taking behavior rationally. Full article

Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) are publicly listed “blank check” firms with a sole purpose: to merge with a private company and take it public. Selecting a target to take public via SPACs is a complex affair led by SPAC sponsors who seek to deliver investor value by effectively “picking winners” from the private sector. A key question for all sponsors is what they should be searching for. This paper aims to identify the characteristics of SPACs and their target companies that are relevant to market performance at sponsor lock-up windows. To achieve this goal, the study breaks market performance into a binary classification problem and uses a machine learning approach comprised of decision trees, logistic regression, and LASSO regression to identify features that exhibit a distinct relationship with market performance. The obtained results demonstrate that corporate or private equity backing in target firms greatly improves the odds of market outperformance one-year post-merger. This finding is novel in indicating that characteristics of target firms may also be deterministic of SPAC performance, in addition to SPACs, transaction, and the market features identified in the prior literature. It further suggests that a viable sponsor strategy could be constructed for generating outsized market returns at share lock-up windows by simply “following the money” and choosing target firms with prior involvement from corporate or private equity investors. Full article

An initial public offering (IPO) refers to a process by which private corporations offer their shares in a public stock market for investment by public investors. This listing of private corporations in the stock market leads to the easy generation and exchange of capital between private corporations and public investors. Investing in a company’s shares is accompanied by careful consideration and study of the company’s public image, financial policies, and position in the financial market. The stock market is highly volatile and susceptible to changes in the political and socioeconomic environment. Therefore, the prediction of a company’s IPO performance in the stock market is an important study area for researchers. However, there are several challenges in this path, such as the fragile nature of the stock market, the irregularity of data, and the influence of external factors on the IPO performance. Researchers over the years have proposed various artificial intelligence (AI)-based solutions for predicting IPO performance. However, they have some lacunae in terms of the inadequate data size, data irregularity, and lower prediction accuracy. Motivated by the aforementioned issues, we proposed an analytical model for predicting IPO gains or losses by incorporating regression-based AI models. We also performed a detailed exploratory data analysis (EDA) on a standard IPO dataset to identify useful inferences and trends. The XGBoost Regressor showed the maximum prediction accuracy for the current IPO gains, i.e., 91.95%. Full article

The multilevel back-to-back cascaded H-bridge converter (CHB-B2B) presents a significantly reduced components per level in comparison to other classical back-to-back multilevel topologies. However, this advantage cannot be fulfilled because of the several internal short circuits presented in the CHB-B2B when a conventional PWM modulation is applied. To solve this issue, a powerful math tool known as graph theory emerges as a solution for defining the converter switching matrix to be used with an appropriate control strategy, such as the model-based predictive control (MPC). Therefore, this research paper proposes a MPC with the graph theory approach applied to CHB-B2B which capable of not only eliminating the short circuit stages, but also exploring all the switching states remaining without losing the converter controllability and power quality. To demonstrate the proposed strategy applicability, the MPC with graph theory approach is tested in four different types of SST configurations, input-parallel output-parallel (IPOP), input-parallel output series (IPOS), input-series output-parallel (ISOP), and input-series output series (ISOS), attending distribution grids with different voltage and power levels. Real-time experimental results obtained in a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) platform demonstrate the proposed strategy’s effectiveness, such as DC-link voltages regulation, multilevel voltage synthesis, and currents with reduced harmonic content. Full article

This study attempts to predict how long a newly listed corporation, usually termed initial public offering (IPO), will survive on the equity listing market. The three-fold contribution of this study comprises a hand-collected and substantially expanded dataset for listed IPOs (1990–2017) over a maximum tracking period of 31 years (1990–2020) to predict the IPO survival on emerging Malaysian capital market, the rationale and consequences for unifying the two listing boards (Main Board and Second Board) in 2009, and an investigation of the predictive role of ex ante strategic prospectus information as early warning signals for sustainable survival of Malaysian IPOs. We also make comparisons for the survival profile of IPOs listed on different listing equity boards. We use Cox proportional hazard (PH) model to estimate the empirical results because of the cohort research design of the study. Overall empirical results show that survival curves for IPOs listed on Main Board and Second Board were not statistically different. However, Second Board IPOs remained more vulnerable to hazard. The survival curves for IPOs listed on Main Market and ACE Market are statistically different. Empirical results reveal that high share premium, high listed capital, and longer firm age at listing date significantly increase the survival (reduce hazard) of IPOs listed on the Main Market and the Second Board. However, bigger firm size and elevated risk factors significantly reduce the survival (increase hazard) of the listed IPOs mentioned above. However, share premium is the only variable that has a negative and significant correlation with IPO survival on ACE Market. These results have implications for the regulators, prospective investors, and policymakers of emerging markets, where the IPO prospectus disclosures bridge the information asymmetry gap prevailing due to the nonexistence of public information prior to the IPO. Empirical findings of this study can be generalized to other developing and emerging markets where IPO prospectus substantially mitigates information asymmetry and ex ante strategic firm characteristics act as early warning signals in predicting IPO survival. Full article

The Northeast region of Brazil (NEB) is characterized by large climate variability that causes extreme and long unseasonal wet and dry periods. Despite significant model developments to improve seasonal forecasting for the NEB, the achievement of a satisfactory accuracy often remains a challenge, and forecasting methods aimed at reducing uncertainties regarding future climate are needed. In this work, we implement and assess the performance of an empirical model (EmpM) based on a decomposition of historical data into dominant modes of precipitation and seasonal forecast applied to the NEB domain. We analyzed the model’s performance for the February-March-April quarter and compared its results with forecasts based on data from the North American Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) project for the same period. We found that the first three leading precipitation modes obtained by empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) explained most of the rainfall variability for the season of interest. Thereby, this study focuses on them for the forecast evaluations. A teleconnection analysis shows that most of the variability in precipitation comes from sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in various areas of the Pacific and the tropical Atlantic. The modes exhibit different spatial patterns across the NEB, with the first being concentrated in the northern half of the region and presenting remarkable associations with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM), both linked to the latitudinal migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). As for the second mode, the correlations with oceanic regions and its loading pattern point to the influence of the incursion of frontal systems in the southern NEB. The time series of the third mode implies the influence of a lower frequency mode of variability, probably related to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The teleconnection patterns found in the analysis allowed for a reliable forecast of the time series of each mode, which, combined, result in the final rainfall prediction outputted by the model. Overall, the EmpM outperformed the post-processed NMME for most of the NEB, except for some areas along the northern region, where the NMME showed superiority. Full article

Concerns about the negative consequences of the excessive underpricing of the current arrangement in the initial public offering (IPO) market for the provision of entrepreneurial finance—book building—have led to research into the viability of auctions for IPO pricing and allocation. IPO firms face a trade-off between the benefit of accurate and reliable IPO price discovery and the cost of underpricing. The main aim of this paper was to gain new scientific knowledge about this trade-off by measuring the impact of two key variables on this trade-off: capacity restraint and discount on the auction clearing price. Using controlled experiment methodology in multi-unit uniform price auctions we found that the most capacity-restricted auctions that also offer investors a discount are likely to produce the most accurate and reliable price discovery and consequently, the most predictable auction outcome. There are indications that a discount of 8% may suffice to incentivize investors to reliably contribute to price discovery. The resulting underpricing (and its variability) of these auctions is likely to be significantly lower than if book building would be used to price and allocate IPOs. Technological innovation in the IPO market through the application of recent advances in data science, experimental economics and artificial intelligence allows for the optimization of IPO mechanisms and crowdfunding platforms which in turn improves the access to equity required for entrepreneurial finance. Full article