Search Results (169)

The geographical response of western North Pacific subtropical high (SH) to environmental conditions such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global warming has been one of the main concerns with respect to extreme events induced by tropical convections. By considering observed outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) as the strength of subtropical high, this study attempts to further understand the geographical response of SH strength to ENSO and global warming. Here, “SH strength” is defined as the inhibition of regional convections under SH environment. A meridional seesaw pattern among SH strength anomalies is found at 130°–175° E. In addition, the La Niña environment with weaker convections at lower latitudes is characterized by farther westward expansion of SH but with a weaker strength. Conversely, the El Niño environment with stronger convections at lower latitudes leads to shrunken SH but with a greater strength. The influence of the seesaw mechanism appears to be modulated by global warming. The western North Pacific subtropical high strengthens overall under warming in both the La Niña and El Niño environments. This suggests that the weakening effect by drier tropics is largely offset by anomalous highs induced by a warming atmosphere. It is most remarkable that the highest SH strengths appear in a warmer El Niño environment. The finding implies that every new El Niño environment may experience the driest atmosphere ever in the subtropics under global warming. The value of this study lies in the fact that OLR effectively illustrates how the ENSO variation and global warming bring the zonally undulating strength of boreal-summer SH. Full article

The barotropic sea level difference (SLD) across the Korea/Tsushima Strait (KTS) is considered an index of the volume transport into the East/Japan Sea. This study investigates the interannual variability of the barotropic SLD (the KTS inflow) from 1985 to 2017 and its relationship to upper-ocean (<300 m) current variability in the western North Pacific. An increase in the KTS inflow is associated with a weakening of the Kuroshio current through the Tokara Strait and upper-ocean cooling in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre, characteristic of a La Niña-like state. Diagnostic analysis reveals that the KTS inflow variability is linked to at least two statistically distinct and concurrent modes of oceanic variability. The first mode is tied to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation through large-scale changes in the Kuroshio system. The second mode, which is linearly uncorrelated with the first, is associated with regional eddy kinetic energy variability in the western North Pacific. The identification of these parallel pathways suggests a complex regulatory system for the KTS inflow. This study provides a new framework for understanding the multi-faceted connection between the KTS and upstream oceanic processes, with implications for the predictability of the ocean environmental conditions in the East/Japan Sea. Full article

Statistical cluster analysis applied to monthly 1–100 m ocean temperatures reveals El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dipole patterns with a leading mode having opposing centers of action across the dateline and tropical east Pacific. We focus on the La Niña cold phase and study its impact on the Caribbean climate over the period of 1980–2024. East dipole time scores are used to identify composite years, and anomaly patterns are calculated for Jan-Jun and Jul-Dec. Convective responses over the Caribbean exhibit seasonal contrasts: dry winter–spring and wet summer–autumn. Trade winds and currents across the southern Caribbean weaken and lead to anomalous warming of upper ocean temperatures. Sustained coastal upwelling off Peru and Ecuador during east La Niña is teleconnected with easterly wind shear and tropical cyclogenesis over the Caribbean during summer, leading to costly impacts. This ocean–atmosphere coupling is quite different from the more common central Pacific ENSO dipole. Full article

This study advances coastal flood risk assessment by incorporating El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase information into the Joint Probability of Maxima Method (ENSO-JPMM) for extreme water level prediction in Annapolis, MD. Using data from GLOSS/Extended Sea 135 Level Analysis Version 3 (GESLA-3) dataset and water level records from 1950–2021, we demonstrate that ENSO phases significantly affects flood risk probabilities through their influence on mean sea level, astronomical tides, and skew surge components. We introduce an enhanced JPMM framework that employs phase-specific scaling factors and vertical offsets derived from historical observations, with El Niño conditions associated with higher mean water levels (0.433 m) compared to La Niña (0.403 m) and Neutral phases (0.409 m). The ENSO-JPMM demonstrates improved predictive accuracy across all phases, with root mean square error reductions of up to 5.96% during Neutral conditions and 3.56% during El Niño phases. By implementing a detailed methodology for mean sea level estimation and skew surge analysis, our approach provides a more detailed framework for separating tidal and non-tidal components while accounting for climate variability. The results indicate that traditional extreme value analyses may underestimate flood risks by failing to account for ENSO-driven variability, which can modulate mean water levels by up to 3.0 cm in Annapolis. This research provides insight for coastal infrastructure planning and flood risk management, particularly as climate change potentially alters ENSO characteristics and their influence on extreme water levels. The methodology presented here, while specific to Annapolis MD, can be adapted for other coastal regions to improve flood risk assessments and enhance community resilience planning. Full article

As important components of the equatorial current system in the Indian Ocean, Wyrtki jets (WJs) play a significant role in distributing heat and matter in the East and West Indian Oceans. By dividing the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events into several phases, we find that the spring branch exhibits positive (negative) anomalies during the El Niño (La Niña) decaying phase, while the fall branch exhibits negative (positive) anomalies during the El Niño (La Niña) developing phase. The spring and fall branches are characterized by negative (positive) anomalies under the influence of positive (negative) dipole events, and these anomalies are particularly pronounced during fall. This study systematically analyzes the characteristics of WJs under the interactions between the Indo-Pacific ocean and the atmosphere, based on the phase-locking characteristics of ENSO, and reveals the regulatory mechanisms underlying their different response patterns. Full article

The Haihe River system, located in the East Asian monsoon climate zone, experiences uneven precipitation and significant variability, leading to frequent droughts and floods that disrupted economic and social development. While many studies have assessed the risks of droughts and floods in the Haihe River Basin, most focus on the basin as a whole, leaving a notable gap in research on the dynamics of the northern region. This study analyzed historical drought and flood data, incorporating instrument precipitation records from 1960 to 2009 to reconstruct conditions in the northern Haihe River Basin from 1470 to 2009. Using methods like the Mann–Kendall test, sliding averages, continuous wavelet technology, and spatial analysis, this study examined the trends, change points, periodicity, and spatial patterns of drought and flood variability. The findings showed that from 1470 to 2009, drought and flood variabilities occurred 73.15% of the time in the northern Haihe system, with peak disaster periods in the 17th, 19th, and 20th centuries. The region has alternated between wet and dry cycles, with a notable dry trend emerging in the 21st century. A prominent 35~50-year cycle in drought and flood occurrences was identified, along with high-frequency oscillations. Flood periods were most frequent in the eastern plains, while drought periods were more prevalent in the western areas, gradually shifting eastward since 1950. The research also revealed correlations between drought and flood variability and solar activity, with peak years coinciding with higher frequencies of these events. El Niño events were associated with drought periods, while La Niña events tended to cause flood periods. Factors such as solar activity, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, monsoon climate patterns, topography, and human influences shaped the dynamics of drought and flood variability in the northern Haihe River Basin. A comparison with other regions showed consistent wet and dry cycles over the past 500 years, particularly between the northern and southern parts of the basin. However, since the 21st century, the southern region has remained humid, while the northern region has become increasingly drier. Despite similar temperature trends, humidity changes have diverged in the modern warming period. Although the underlying factors driving drought and flood variability were not fully understood and required a further exploration of the global climate system’s interactions, these findings emphasized the need for targeted strategies to address the ongoing challenges of drought and flood management in the northern Haihe River Basin. Full article

The coral reefs in the Philippines are facing an unprecedented crisis. This study, based on a comprehensive analysis of marine heatwaves (MHWs), degree heating weeks (DHWs), and ocean acidification (OA) indices derived from satellite observations and reanalysis data, reveals how thermal stress and OA have progressively eroded coral ecosystems from 1985 to 2022. This study analyzed 12 critical coral habitats adjacent to the Philippines. The monthly average sea surface temperature (SST) in the study area ranged from 26.6 °C to 29.3 °C. The coast of Lingayen Gulf was identified as the most vulnerable coral reef site in the Philippines, followed by Davao Oriental and Polillo Island. The coast of Lingayen Gulf recorded the highest total MHW days in 2022, amounting to 293 days. The coast of Lingayen Gulf also reached the highest DHW values in July and August 2022, with 8.94 °C weeks, while Davao Oriental experienced the most extended average duration of MHWs in 2020, lasting 90.5 days per event. Large-scale climate features such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) significantly influenced the study area’s SST anomalies and MHW events. High-risk coral bleaching periods, such as 1988–1989, 1998–1999, 2007–2008, and 2009–2010, were characterized by transitions from El Niño and positive PDO phases, to La Niña and negative PDO phases. However, since 2015, global warming has led to high cumulative heat stress without specific climate background patterns. We propose a Coral Marine Environmental Vulnerability Index (CoralVI) to integrate the spatiotemporal dynamics of warming and acidification and their impacts on coral habitats. The data show a rapid increase in the marine environmental vulnerability of coral habitats in the Philippines in recent years, extending to almost the entire coastline, posing significant threats to coral survival. Full article

The Southern Ocean (SO) plays a fundamental role in the planet’s climate system, due to its ability to absorb and redistribute heat and CO₂ (an important greenhouse gas). In addition, the SO connects three large oceanic basins the Pacific, the Atlantic, and the Indian Oceans, and it has an important role in the nutrient distribution in these oceans. However, the SO is poorly sampled, with most measurements made in austral spring and summer. The variability in the air–sea CO₂ flux is estimated, as well as the role of atmospheric and oceanic variables in this variability. The CO₂ fluxes are calculated using the bulk parameterization method, in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean, from 2003 to 2022, using in situ measurements, satellites, and a reanalysis data set. A neural network model is built to produce maps of the partial pressure of CO₂ in seawater (pCO_2sea). The CO₂ flux varies from −0.05 to 0.05 gC m⁻² month⁻¹. The Atlantic sector of the SO is a sink of CO₂ in summer and spring and becomes a source in austral winter and autumn. The CO₂ absorption intensifies from 2003 to 2022 by 7.6 mmol m⁻² month⁻¹, due to stronger westerly winds, related to the trend in the positive phase of the Antarctic Oscillation and the extreme El Niño Southern Ocean (ENSO) events (e.g., El Niño and La Niña). Full article

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) consistently modulates climate patterns in terrestrial ecosystems, triggering vegetation greening or browning. Although vegetation dynamics in the tropics during ENSO has been widely reported, the response of vegetation greening in the near-tropics to ENSO remains uncertain. Here, we explored vegetation greening near the Tropic of Cancer in China (TCC) during three sustained ENSO events during 2001–2018 based on long-term MODIS satellite Leaf Area Index (LAI) products (i.e., MOD15A2H). The results revealed a pronounced asymmetry in vegetation greening responses to ENSO near the TCC. Specifically, vegetation browning during strong La Niña (i.e., LAI anomalies about −0.15) is twice as high as vegetation greening during strong El Niño (i.e., LAI anomalies about +0.05). In La Niña, vegetation browning was accompanied by negative surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies, while in El Niño, vegetation greening was dominated by a positive anomaly in precipitation. This study emphasizes the distinct impact of ENSO on vegetation greening in the near-tropics, providing important insights into the response of vegetation dynamics to climate extremes under a warming world. Full article

The Antarctic sea ice concentration (SIC) plays a crucial role in global climate dynamics by influencing atmospheric and oceanic circulation. This study examines SIC variability and its relationship with major climate modes, including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific-South American (PSA) pattern, Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and Antarctic Dipole (ADP). Using NSIDC satellite-derived sea ice data and ERA5 reanalysis from 1980 to 2022, we analyzed SIC anomalies in the Weddell, Ross, and Bellingshausen and Amundsen (B&A) Seas, assessing their response to climatic forcings across different timescales. Our findings reveal strong linkages between SIC variability and large-scale atmospheric circulation. ENSO-related teleconnections drive a dipolar SIC response, with warming in the Pacific sector and cooling in the Atlantic during El Niño, and the opposite pattern during La Niña. PSA and ADP further modulate this response by altering Rossby wave propagation and heat fluxes, leading to significant SIC fluctuations. The ADP emerges as a dominant driver of interannual SIC anomalies, showing an out-of-phase relationship between the Atlantic and Pacific sectors of the Southern Ocean. Regional SIC trends exhibit contrasting patterns: the Ross Sea shows a significant positive SIC trend, while the B&A and Weddell Seas experience persistent negative anomalies due to enhanced meridional heat transport and stronger westerly winds. SAM strongly influences SIC, particularly in the Atlantic sector, with delayed responses of up to six months, likely due to ice-albedo feedbacks and ocean memory effects. These results enhance our understanding of Antarctic sea ice variability and its sensitivity to large-scale climate oscillations. Given the observed trends and ongoing climate change, further research is needed to assess how these processes will evolve under future warming scenarios. This study highlights the importance of continuous satellite observations and high-resolution climate modeling for improving projections of Antarctic sea ice behavior and its implications for the global climate system. Full article

In this work, the preindustrial control (piControl) and Historical experiments results from climatic Earth system models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are analyzed for their ability to predict the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Using the principal component method, it is shown that the Global Atmospheric Oscillation (GAO), of which the ENSO is an element, is the main mode of interannual variability of planetary anomalies of surface air temperature (SAT) and atmospheric sea level pressure (SLP) in the ensemble of 50 CMIP6 models. It turns out that the CMIP6 ensemble of models reproduces the planetary structure of the GAO and its west–east dynamics with a period of approximately 3.7 years. The models showed that the GAO combines ENSO teleconnections with the tropics of the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, and with temperate and high latitudes. To predict strong El Niño and La Niña events, we used a predictor index (PGAO) obtained earlier from observation data and reanalyses. The predictive ability of the PGAO is based on the west–east propagation of planetary structures of SAT and SLP anomalies characteristic of the GAO. Those CMIP6 models have been found that reproduce well the west–east spread of the GAO, with El Niño and La Niña being phases of this process. Thanks to this, these events can be predicted with approximately a year’s lead time, thereby overcoming the so-called spring predictability barrier (SPB) of the ENSO. Thus, the influence of global anomalies of SAT and SLP on the ENSO is shown, taking into account that it may increase the reliability of the early forecast of El Niño and La Niña events. Full article

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) alters ocean–atmosphere carbon exchange, but the mechanisms by which it affects the air–sea carbon flux (FCO₂) remain unclear. Here, we used gridded FCO₂ data from 2003 to 2021 to elucidate the control processes and regional differences in the influence of the ENSO on FCO₂ in the mid–low latitude Pacific Ocean. Overall, the mid–low latitude Pacific Ocean region was a net sink for CO₂, with an average uptake rate of −0.39 molC·m⁻²·year⁻¹. Specifically, during the La Niña period in 2010–2012, the absorption rate decreased by 15.38%, while during the El Niño period in 2015–2016, it increased by 30.77%. El Niño (La Niña) suppressed (promoted) biological primary production in the North Pacific, leading to reduced (enhanced) carbon uptake. El Niño (La Niña) also inhibited (promoted) physical vertical mixing in the Equatorial Pacific, leading to reduced (enhanced) carbon emissions. In the South Pacific, however, El Niño increased carbon uptake and La Niña decreased carbon uptake; although, not by these two processes. More frequent El Niño in the future will further reduce carbon absorption in the North Pacific and carbon emission in the Equatorial Pacific but increase carbon absorption in the South Pacific. Full article

Beach erosion and shoreline dynamics are strongly affected by alterations in nearshore wave intensity and energy, especially in the context of global climate change. However, existing works do not thoroughly study the evolution of the sandy coasts of eastern Hainan Island, China, nor their responses to wave climate change driven by climate variability. This study focuses on the open sandy coast and assesses shoreline evolutionary dynamics in response to wave climate variability over a 30-year period from 1994 to 2023, using an open-source software toolkit that semi-automatically identify the shorelines (CoastSat v2.4) and reanalysis wave datasets (ERA5). The shorelines of the study area were extracted from CoastSat, and then tidal correction and outlier correction were performed for clearer shorelines. Combining the shoreline changes and wave conditions derived from ERA5, the dynamics of the shorelines and their response to wave climate change were further studied. The findings reveal that the average long-term shoreline change rate along the eastern coast of Hainan Island is 0.03 m/year, with 44.8% of transects experiencing erosion and 55.2% showing long-term accretion. And distinct evolutionary patterns emerge across different sections. Interannual variability is marked by alternating erosion and siltation cycles, while most sections of the coast experiences clear seasonal fluctuations, with accretion typically occurring during summer and erosion occurring in winter. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles drive changes in parameters including significant wave height, mean wave period, wave energy flux, and mean wave direction, leading to long-term changes in wave climate. The multi-scale behavior of the sandy shoreline responds distinctly to the ongoing changes in wave climate triggered by ENSO viability, with El Niño events typically resulting in accretion and La Niña periods causing erosion. Notably, mean wave direction is the metric most closely linked to changes in the shoreline among all the others. In conclusion, the interplay of escalating anthropogenic activities, natural processes, and climate change contributes to the long-term evolution of sandy shorelines. We believe this study can offer a scientific reference for erosion prevention and management strategies of sandy beaches, based on the analysis presented above. Full article

The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) is significantly modulated by Indo-Pacific climate forcing, especially the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). However, when ENSO and IOD occur concurrently, they tend to play different roles in the ITF volume transport. By employing an improved Constructed Circulation Analogue (CCA) method, the relative contributions of these climate events to the ITF inflow and outflow transport in the upper and lower layers were quantified. The results indicate that during co-occurring El Niño and positive IOD events, ENSO is the dominant influence, with ratio values of 5.5:1 (3.5:1) in the upper layer and 1.7:1 (1.6:1) in the lower layer of the inflow (outflow). Conversely, during co-occurring La Niña and negative IOD events, the IOD predominates, with ratio values of 1:6 (1:6.5) in the upper layer and 1:4 (1:3) in the lower layer of the inflow (outflow). The mechanisms underlying these variations in the upper and lower layers can be explained by the differences in sea level anomaly (SLA) and wave propagation, respectively. This study provides a new insight into distinct roles of climate forcing on the ITF volume transport during the simultaneous occurrence of multiple climate modes. Full article

Taiwan Bank (TB) is located in the southern Taiwan Strait (TS). The uplifted continental slope and bottom currents in this area result in the formation of upwelling areas, which serve as crucial fishing grounds. Climate-induced fluctuations in fish populations occur in the TS. However, how predation and competition affect the interspecies relationships in the TB ecosystem warrants clarification. In this study, we collected high-grid-resolution data on fishery activity (2013–2019) and constructed ecosystem models using Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE). Three mass-balanced models for determining the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on the TB ecosystem were constructed using EwE. A range of groups, including representative pelagic, benthic, and reef species, were collected for analyzing the relationship between migratory and sedentary species in terms of ecosystem structure variation due to climate change. The results demonstrated that the total system throughput (TST) was 10,556–11,122 t km⁻² year⁻¹, with an average transfer efficiency of 12.26%. According to the keystoneness index, calculated through mixed trophic impact analysis, Polydactylus sextarius and Scomber japonicus were the key species with top–down control and relatively high impact on the ecosystem in normal years. The keystone species also shifted to the predator fish Thunnus albacares and Katsuwonus pelamis during El Niño and La Niña events, respectively. Moreover, total biomass, TST, consumption, and respiration were noted to increase during ENSO events. However, during La Niña events, the diversity and connectance indexes were relatively low but pelagic species’ biomass was relatively high, whereas the biomass of most benthic and reef species was relatively high during El Niño events. Full article