Search Results (930)

The relationship between trade openness and economic performance has been widely debated and researched during the last several decades. However, the specific influence of trade openness from the perspective of controlling the inflation rate is rarely researched specifically for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Accordingly, this research paper attempts to test the influence of trade openness on inflation, focusing on KSA. The paper utilizes historical data from 1975 to 2023 and employs the “Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)” and “Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL)” cointegration techniques to assess the responsiveness of the inflation rate to increased trade openness. The results of the ARDL demonstrated the positive influence that trade openness has on inflation, which is a rejection of Romer’s hypothesis. The findings of the NARDL also rejected Romer’s hypothesis by demonstrating a positive relationship between the positive shocks in trade openness and the inflation rate. Similarly, our results illustrated a significant negative impact of domestic industrialization and government expenditure on inflation. Moreover, we found that the inflation rate in KSA is significantly dependent on economic performance. Finally, our findings demonstrated that the natural resource sector is unable to explain the inflationary pressure in KSA significantly. Full article

Understanding the price dynamics of oil futures is crucial for advancing green finance strategies and supporting sustainable energy transitions. This study investigates the macroeconomic and energy market determinants of oil futures prices through Granger causality, cointegration analysis, and the error correction model, using daily data. It focuses on the influence of economic development levels, exchange rate fluctuations, and inter-energy price linkages. The empirical findings indicate that (1) oil futures prices exhibit strong correlations with other energy prices, macroeconomic factors, and exchange rate variables; (2) economic development significantly affects oil futures prices, while exchange rate impacts are statistically insignificant based on the daily data analyzed; (3) there exists a stable long-term equilibrium relationship between oil futures prices and variables representing economic activity, exchange rates, and energy market trends; (4) oil futures prices exhibit significant short-term dynamics while adjusting steadily toward a long-run equilibrium driven by macroeconomic and energy market fundamentals. By enhancing the accuracy of oil futures price forecasting, this study offers practical insights for managing financial risks associated with fossil energy markets and contributes to the formulation of low-carbon investment strategies. The findings provide a valuable reference for integrating energy pricing models into sustainable finance and climate-aligned portfolio decisions. Full article

This study investigates the short- and long-run drivers of natural gas consumption in the European Union using an ARDL bounds testing approach. The analysis incorporates GDP per capita, liquid fuel use, and solid fuel use as explanatory variables. Augmented Dickey–Fuller tests confirm mixed integration orders, allowing valid ARDL estimation. The results reveal a statistically significant long-run relationship (cointegration) between gas consumption and the energy–economic system. In the short run, the use of liquid fuel exerts a strong positive influence on gas demand, while the effects of GDP materialise only after a two-year lag. Solid fuels show a delayed substitutive impact, reflecting the ongoing transition from coal. An error correction model confirms rapid convergence to equilibrium, with 77% of deviations corrected within one period. Recursive residual and CUSUM tests indicate structural stability over time. These findings highlight the responsiveness of EU gas demand to both economic and policy signals, offering valuable insights for energy modelling and strategic planning under the European Green Deal. Full article

Our research explores the dynamic relationship between CO₂ emissions and four major influencing factors: foreign direct investment (FDI), economic growth (GDP), renewable energy consumption (REN) and population (POP) in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and three large Asian countries—China, India and Pakistan, collectively referred to as LACs (larger Asian countries), from 1990 to 2022. The study has three main objectives: (1) to assess the short-run and long-run effects of GDP, FDI, REN and POP on CO₂ emissions; (2) to compare the adjustment speeds and environmental policy responsiveness between ASEAN and LAC regions; and (3) to evaluate the role of renewable energy in mitigating environmental degradation. Against the backdrop of increasing environmental challenges and divergent development paths in Asia, this research contributes to the literature by applying a dynamic heterogeneous panel autoregressive distributed lag (panel ARDL) model. Unlike traditional static panel models, the panel ARDL model captures both long-run equilibrium relationships and short-run adjustments, allowing for country-specific dynamics. The results reveal a significant long-run cointegration among the variables. The error correction term (ECT) indicates a faster adjustment to equilibrium in LACs (−1.18) than ASEAN (−0.37), suggesting LACs respond more swiftly to long-run disequilibria in emissions-related dynamics. This may reflect more responsive policy mechanisms, stronger institutional capacities or more aggressive environmental interventions in LACs. In contrast, the slower adjustment in ASEAN highlights potential structural rigidities or delays in implementing effective policy responses, emphasizing the need for enhanced regulatory frameworks and targeted climate strategies to improve policy intervention efficiency. Results show that GDP and FDI increase emissions in both regions, while REN reduces them. POP is insignificant in ASEAN but increases emissions in LACs. These results provide insights into the relative effectiveness of policy instruments in accelerating the transition to a low-carbon economy, highlighting the need for differentiated strategies that align with each country’s institutional capacity, development stage and energy structure. Full article

Youth unemployment remains a pressing issue in many emerging economies, where educational disparities and demographic pressures interact in complex ways. This study investigates the links between higher-education enrolment, demographic structure and youth unemployment in eight developing countries from 2009 to 2023. Panel cointegration techniques—Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS)—are applied to estimate the long-run effects of gross tertiary-school enrolment on youth unemployment while controlling for GDP growth and youth-cohort size. Robustness is confirmed through complementary estimations with pooled-mean-group ARDL and system-GMM panels, which deliver consistent coefficient signs and significance levels. Results show a significant negative elasticity between enrolment and youth unemployment, indicating that wider access to higher education helps lower joblessness among young people. Youth-population growth exerts an opposite, positive effect, while GDP growth reduces unemployment but less uniformly across regions. The evidence points to an integrated policy mix—expanding tertiary (especially vocational and technical) education, managing demographic pressure and maintaining macro-economic stability—to improve youth-employment outcomes in emerging economies. Full article

This study investigates the dynamic relationship between maritime trade and cultural convergence between China and Saudi Arabia, with a particular focus on the roles of creative goods and information and communication technology (ICT) exports as proxies for sociocultural integration. Utilizing quarterly data from 2012 to 2021, the analysis employs the Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality approach within a Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework. This methodology offers a robust means of testing causality without requiring data stationarity or cointegration, thereby reducing estimation bias and enhancing applicability to real-world economic data. The empirical model examines causal interactions among maritime trade, creative goods exports, ICT exports, and population, the latter serving as a control variable to account for demographic scale effects on trade dynamics. The results indicate statistically significant bidirectional causality between maritime trade and both creative goods and ICT exports, suggesting a reciprocal reinforcement between trade and cultural–technological exchange. In contrast, the relationship between maritime trade and population is found to be unidirectional. These findings underscore the strategic importance of cultural and technological flows in shaping maritime trade patterns. Furthermore, the study contextualizes its results within broader policy initiatives, notably China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, both of which aim to promote mutual economic diversification and regional integration. The study contributes to the literature on international trade and cultural economics by demonstrating how cultural convergence can serve as a catalyst for strengthening bilateral trade relations. Policy implications include the promotion of cultural and technological collaboration, investment in maritime infrastructure, and the incorporation of cultural dimensions into trade policy formulation. Full article

This study investigates the impact of remittances on income inequality in Lebanon using annual time-series data for the years 2000–2023. Applying Johansen’s cointegration test, with financial development (FD), GDP, and household consumption expenditure (HCE) as the control variables, the study examines the long-run and short-run relationship between remittances and inequality. The study also considers the moderating impacts of FD and HCE to account for their indirect role in the remittance–inequality relationship. Dynamic relations are also examined by using impulse response functions (IRFs) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) analyses. The long-run model estimates validate that remittances and income inequality are significantly and negatively related, i.e., increased remittance receipts serve to reduce income inequality in Lebanon. Remittance effects, however, are statistically insignificant in the short run. Interestingly, the results reveal that financial development weakens the remittances’ inequality-reducing effect, dampening their impact. Contrarily, a higher household consumption expenditure slightly strengthens the inequality-reducing effect of remittances. A comparison between the pre- and post-2019 periods reveals that the explanatory strength of remittances weakened during times of economic crisis, since the function of remittances was different during times of economic distress. Based on these findings, this study recommends that Lebanon not only promote financial development but also focus on financial inclusion, improve social safety nets, and provide inclusive economic growth to maximize remittance inflow benefits and efficiently reduce inequality. Full article

Many environmental risks, such as global warming and depletion of natural resources, force governments to achieve economic growth and financial development without causing environmental degradation. The dependency of countries’ dependence on fossil fuels also causes energy supply security problems due to the associated risks at regional and global levels. These reasons lead countries to diversify and increase their renewable energy investments. In this context, this study focuses on the most attractive countries in terms of renewable energy investments and analyzes the relationships between renewable energy consumption (REC), carbon dioxide emissions (CO₂), economic growth (EGRO), financial development (FD), and energy dependence (EDP) using the panel regression method. This research uses data from 38 countries between 1991 and 2021 within the scope of the “Renewable Energy Attractiveness Index” (RECAI) created by Ernst & Young. As a result of the heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependency tests, the data were analyzed using the Westerlund cointegration test, the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimator, and the Emirmahmutoglu and Kose causality test. The findings from this study show that FD and EGRO have a positive and significant effect on REC, whereas they have a negative and significant relationship with CO₂ emissions. Findings from the causality test show that FD has an impact on both CO₂ and EGRO. In addition, within the scope of this study, a causality was determined between EDP and REC, and a mutual relationship between energy demand and CO₂ was revealed. In light of these findings, governments should increase their investments in renewable energy to ensure sustainable economic growth and energy supply security while minimizing environmental degradation. Full article

The rapid proliferation of electric vehicles necessitates accurate forecasting of charging pile capacity for urban power system planning, yet existing methods for medium- to long-term prediction lack effective mechanisms to capture complex multi-factor relationships. To address this gap, a hybrid cointegration–BiLSTM framework is proposed for medium- to long-term load forecasting. Cointegration theory is leveraged to identify long-term equilibrium relationships between EV charging capacity and socioeconomic factors, effectively mitigating spurious regression risks. The extracted cointegration features and error correction terms are integrated into a bidirectional LSTM network to capture complex temporal dependencies. Validation using data from 14 cities in Hunan Province demonstrated that cointegration analysis surpassed linear correlation methods in feature preprocessing effectiveness, while the proposed model achieved enhanced forecasting accuracy relative to conventional temporal convolutional networks, support vector machines, and gated recurrent units. Furthermore, a 49% reduction in MAE and RMSE was observed when ECT-enhanced features were adopted instead of unenhanced groups, confirming the critical role of comprehensive feature engineering. Compared with the GRU baseline, the BiLSTM model yielded a 26% decrease in MAE and a 24% decrease in RMSE. The robustness of the model was confirmed through five-fold cross-validation, with ECT-enhanced features yielding optimal results. This approach provides a scientifically grounded framework for EV charging infrastructure planning, with potential extensions to photovoltaic capacity forecasting. Full article

The rapid expansion of plastic waste trade has intensified environmental pressures, accelerating ecosystem degradation and climate change. We examine the long-term impacts of plastic waste imports and domestic waste production on ecological footprints and greenhouse gas emissions across 20 countries representing 70% of global plastic waste trade and 45% of world GDP. Under the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) framework, we explore nonlinear interactions among economic growth, urbanization, and sustainability goals. Using a panel simultaneous equations approach, we apply Pedroni, Kao, and Westerlund cointegration tests and Fully Modified and Dynamic OLS estimators to address endogeneity and heterogeneity. Robustness checks include alternative environmental indicators and the Dumitrescu–Hurlin panel causality test. Results demonstrate a stable long-run equilibrium: plastic waste imports substantially increase ecological footprints and emissions, while progress on sustainable development goals mitigates some damage. The negative GDP squared coefficient supports the EKC hypothesis, indicating that environmental impacts rise initially with growth but decline once income exceeds a threshold. These findings highlight the need for stronger international regulations, enhanced waste management infrastructures, and circular economy strategies. Focused investment in sustainable technologies and global cooperation is essential to lower environmental costs of plastic waste trade. Full article

The residential sector has the potential to significantly impact overall energy consumption and emissions due to the long lifespan of residential buildings and the difficulty of outsourcing residential emissions to other nations. This research primarily aimed to investigate the impact of government expenditure on environmental protection in reducing household energy consumption, thus contributing to Canada’s environmental quality. We utilized panel data from ten Canadian provinces covering the period from 1995 to 2020. To estimate household energy demand, both conceptual and empirical models were developed. Advanced second-generation econometric techniques were applied, including appropriate unit root and co-integration tests. Long-term relationships were analyzed using the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) methodologies. The long-term estimates indicate that all explanatory variables align with theoretical expectations and are highly significant. The findings reveal that government funding for environmental protection, along with province-specific environmental policies, contributes to reducing per capita residential energy consumption, which is essential for enhancing energy efficiency. Additionally, factors such as weather, income, demographic shifts, and energy prices are found to influence household energy consumption trends. These outcomes highlight the importance of increased government funding for environmental protection and underscore the need for provinces to implement context-specific environmental policies. This approach is essential in the effort to reduce household energy consumption across Canada. Full article

This study explores the relationship between renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, economic growth (EG), and ecological footprint (EF) in Poland’s top 18 energy-importing countries from 2000 to 2022. While the energy-growth-environment nexus is well-studied, limited attention has been paid to how a single major energy-exporting country influences sustainability in its trade partners, a gap this study aims to fill. A panel dataset was constructed using five key variables: real GDP per capita, Poland’s fuel exports, ecological footprint per capita, renewable energy consumption, and primary energy consumption per capita. Methodologically, the study employs panel cointegration techniques, including FMOL and DOLS estimators for long-run analysis, as well as the VECM and Granger causality tests for the short run. The study’s main contribution lies in its novel focus on Poland’s export influence and the application of advanced econometric models to examine long-run and short-run effects. Results indicate a stable long-run cointegration relationship. Specifically, a 1% increase in renewable energy use is associated with a 0.0219% rise in GDP per capita. Additionally, Poland’s fuel exports and ecological footprint positively impact growth, whereas primary energy use is statistically insignificant. These findings offer practical implications for policymakers in Poland and its trading partners aiming to align energy trade with sustainability goals. Full article

In this study, the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions for the period 1968–2022 in Turkey was evaluated within the framework of the EKC (Environmental Kuznets Curve) hypothesis. In addition, the impacts of renewable energy consumption and agricultural value added on carbon emissions were analyzed using the ARDL bounds testing approach. The validity of the results was also tested using the FMOLS and DOLS methods. The findings confirmed the existence of a cointegration relationship between carbon emissions and per capita income, renewable energy consumption, and agricultural value added. Long-term analyses indicate that renewable energy consumption reduces carbon emissions, whereas growth in agricultural value added leads to an increase in emissions. In addition, it has been determined that the EKC hypothesis is valid in both the long and short terms and that increases in per capita income raise emissions up to a certain threshold and have a mitigating effect when this threshold is exceeded. The results of the short-term analysis showed that the effects of renewable energy consumption vary across periods, and that agricultural value added increases emissions in the short term. This study provides empirical evidence for Turkey by incorporating sectoral variables within the EKC framework and offers meaningful insights for policymakers regarding the environmental impacts of agricultural value added and renewable energy use in the context of a developing country. Accordingly, fiscal policy instruments such as green taxation, carbon credit trading mechanisms, and financial and agricultural subsidies should be more effectively utilized in Turkey to support structural transformation in agriculture and promote the use of clean energy, in line with the findings that suggest the need for targeted agricultural and energy policies aligned with Turkey’s SDG commitments. Full article

This study investigated the determinants of the Healthcare Quality Index (HQI) in Saudi Arabia over the period from 1990 to 2024. It specifically analyzed the impact of six key variables: Medical Insurance Penetration Rate (MIPR), Gross Domestic Product per Capita (GDP), Unemployment Rate (UR), Inflation Rate (IR), Government Healthcare Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP (GHE), and Foreign Direct Investment in the Healthcare Sector (FDI). Utilizing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) techniques, this research explored both the short-term dynamics and the long-term equilibrium relationships among these time-series variables, while also accounting for cointegration and potential endogeneity. This study contributes to the existing literature by applying the ARDL and VECM methodologies to comprehensively analyze the combined impact of these factors on HQI within the unique economic and social framework of Saudi Arabia, addressing a notable void in this specific context and exploring both transient fluctuations and sustained equilibrium relationships. The key findings revealed distinct influences across time horizons. In the short term, GDP and GHE significantly and positively affect HQI, whereas UR and IR demonstrate a significant negative impact. Short-term impacts of MIPR and FDI are found to be positive but not statistically significant. The long-term analysis indicates that MIPR, GHE, and FDI have a significant positive influence on HQI, while IR maintains a significant negative impact. GDP and UR effects are not statistically significant in the long term. Further analysis using Granger causality tests and VECM confirmed that MIPR, GDP, GHE, and FDI collectively Granger-cause HQI, with government healthcare expenditure playing a crucial role in correcting short-term deviations toward long-term equilibrium. This study concludes that long-term strategies focusing on expanding insurance coverage, increasing government healthcare investment, and attracting foreign direct investment are vital for significantly enhancing healthcare quality in Saudi Arabia. The sustained positive influence of these factors and the critical role of government spending in maintaining long-term stability underscore their importance for effective healthcare policy. While emphasizing these long-term drivers, policymakers should also remain cognizant of the significant negative short-term fluctuations caused by unemployment and inflation. Full article

This study investigates the impact of digital transactions on sustainable economic growth in Turkey, utilizing a vector autoregressive (VAR) model and quarterly data from 2006 to 2023. The results indicate a positive long-term association between digital payments and GDP. Granger causality tests and impulse response functions suggest a bidirectional relationship, highlighting mutual reinforcement between economic activity and digital financial adoption. The study also investigates three potential transmission channels linking digital payments to economic performance: household consumption, productivity, and financial intermediation. Evidence shows that digital payments are associated with increased consumption and financial sector activity, while the link to productivity is less conclusive. These findings imply that policymakers should prioritize digital financial infrastructure development and enhance regulatory frameworks to promote inclusive and sustainable economic growth. Full article