Search Results (19)

Climate crisis is well evidenced with important consequences at the local scale. Often, climate risk assessment and adaptation measures at the national or regional level do not account for local climate impacts and cross-sectoral challenges. This paper presents the findings of a year-long study involving the local community of the Municipality of Sitia in Crete (Greece) in climate change risk assessment and adaptation policymaking. Three coherent workshops produced a citizen-based risk assessment and revealed stakeholders’ perceptions about existing policies from the Regional Climate Change Adaptation Plan of Crete (RCCAPC), addressing climate change impacts on vulnerable economic sectors (agriculture, water, biodiversity, tourism), their effectiveness or lack thereof. It also looks at their ability to suggest solutions regarding the effects of climate change. The study emphasizes how climate hazards affect Sitia’s social elements and, in order to find any differences, reported perceptions were compared with the RCCAPC. By doing so, the research breaks new ground in the participatory formulation of environmental policies that are well-informed, place-based, and climate-sensitive, reflecting a dynamic synthesis of public engagement, scientific research, and practical policy implementation. Full article

In the framework of planning and designing resilient housing under a changing climate, the present study constitutes a comprehensive literature review exploring climate-proofing solutions for the built environment concerning energy supply and water availability. This study delved into a multitude of sources that included scientific papers and reports and European Union guidelines and tools. The identified solutions covered building, urban, and territorial scales. The hazards of interest included heatwaves, heavy precipitation, droughts, earthquakes, wildfires, and storms. Several types of solutions were found (e.g., nature-based, education/capacity-building, engineering/built environment, etc.) with different times of application and timescales of action (e.g., defensive measures, short-term solutions, long-term adaptive, etc.). The maturity of the identified solutions was assessed based on the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) and Societal Readiness Level (SRL). Moreover, each solution’s contribution to climate mitigation was investigated. The solutions were assessed in terms of self-sustainability and other key criteria, namely, effectiveness, contribution to resilience maturity and climate change mitigation, adaptive nature, financing access, risk reduction, and social cohesion. In total, 85 energy and water solutions were determined from the desk review analysis and 67 (30 for the energy sector and 37 for the water sector) solutions were finally retained and proposed. Full article

As warmer and drier conditions associated with global warming are projected to increase in southern Europe, the Mediterranean countries are currently the most prone to wildfire danger. In the present study, we investigated the statistical relationship between drought and fire weather risks in the context of climate change using drought index and fire weather-related indicators. We focused on the vulnerable and long-suffering area of the Attica region using high-resolution gridded climate datasets. Concerning fire weather components and fire hazard days, the majority of Attica consistently produced values that were moderately to highly anti-correlated (−0.5 to −0.9). This suggests that drier circumstances raise the risk of fires. Additionally, it was shown that the spatial dependence of each variable on the 6-months scale Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI6), varied based on the period and climate scenario. Under both scenarios, an increasing rate of change between the drought index and fire indicators was calculated over future periods versus the historical period. In the case of mean and 95th percentiles of FWI with SPEI6, abrupt changes in linear regression slope values were observed, shifting from lower in the past to higher values in the future periods. Finally, the fire indicators’ future projections demonstrated a tendency towards an increasing fire weather risk for the region’s non-urban (forested and agricultural) areas. This increase was evident from the probability distributions shifting to higher mean and even more extreme values in future periods and scenarios. The study demonstrated the region’s growing vulnerability to future fire incidents in the context of climate change. Full article

Many modern frameworks for community resilience and emergency management in the face of extreme hydrometeorological and climate events rely on scenario building. These scenarios typically cover multiple hazards and assess the likelihood of their occurrence. They are quantified by their main characteristics, including likelihood of occurrence, intensity, duration, and spatial extent. However, most studies in the literature focus only on the first two characteristics, neglecting to incorporate the internal hazard dynamics and their persistence over time. In this study, we propose a multidimensional approach to construct extreme event scenarios for multiple hazards, such as heat waves, cold spells, extreme precipitation and snowfall, and wind speed. We consider the intensity, duration, and return period (IDRP) triptych for a specific location. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach by developing pertinent scenarios for eight locations in Greece with diverse geographical characteristics and dominant extreme hazards. We also address how climate change impacts the scenario characteristics. Full article

Under the framework of the European project “FirEUrisk”, the present work aimed to spatially assess the climate change signal of fire weather danger in the Attica region at a high resolution of 5 km. For this purpose, a methodology was applied to investigate the projected changes in fire weather conditions under two emission scenarios and two future periods. The fire weather assessment was based on the fire weather index system and other related indices. The calculated indices were derived from high-resolution validated simulations. Large increases in FWI90 were observed during all periods and under both emission scenarios, mainly in the eastern parts. It is estimated that the northeastern parts will encounter more than 70 days of extreme fire weather, which corresponds to a future change of an increase of more than 45 days compared to the historical period. A change of more than 50% in the ISI will be observed in almost the entire region in the near future under RCP4.5, while this change is restricted mostly to the eastern Attica region under RCP8.5 in both periods. Full article

According to the recent IPCC report, the Mediterranean, and consequently the region of Sitia, is one of the European “climate hotspots”. Its complex geomorphology and multiple locations with very distinct microclimate characteristics make high-resolution climate projections critical for the appropriate determination of effective local adaptation policies. The paper demonstrates the significance of the dynamical downscaling of climate information from 20 km × 20 km to a 5 km × 5 km scale of temperature, precipitation, drought, and fire risk for the region of Sitia and present, near-, and far-future climate projections using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Full article

Weather conditions affect the microclimate of architectural monuments. The alteration of microclimate conditions may create risks for monuments, accelerating their weathering process. For Greece, hosting numerous monuments, the identification of the risks that climate change possess is essential for planning mitigation actions. The main soluble salts that affect archaeological materials are halite and the system of thenardite/mirabilite. The thermodynamics of the salts’ equilibrium are affected by atmospheric conditions. We study the climatology of these conditions, adopting modeled data produced by high-resolution simulations. Possible climate change impacts are investigated, aiming at mapping monuments’ vulnerability in Greece. Full article

South European and Mediterranean countries traditionally suffer from water scarcity, especially the regions around the Mediterranean. In Cyclades, the effects of drought have historically been observed and tackled with small-scale applications, with the most efficient method being rainwater harvesting (RWH). RWH is an inherent aspect of the local population’s culture and architecture, since most houses have built-in water tanks and flat roofs to harvest as much rainwater as possible. In recent decades, the increase in local population and tourism have added additional stress to the limited water resources of the Cycladic islands. To overcome water shortages, most of the islands are equipped with desalination plants. Despite the use of these plants, RWH is still a vital source of water that is free and has zero carbon footprint. Thus, it is important to compare, assess and quantify the performance of this traditional water conserving method as a key water source for the islands’ water resources management, today and for the coming decades. In this research, we investigate and quantify the future performance of rainwater harvesting applications and their contribution to continuous, sustainable, and climate-resilient water supply. The results show a decrease in rainwater harvesting potential in most of the islands, as well as the negative effect of touristic activity on per capita water availability on the islands. Full article

Future fire weather conditions under climate change were investigated based on the Fire Weather Index (FWI), Initial Spread Index (ISI) and threshold-specific indicators in Greece. The indices were calculated from climate datasets derived from high-resolution validated simulations of 5 km. The dynamical downscaled simulations with the WRF model were driven by EC-Earth output for historical (1980–2004) and future periods, under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP4.5 and 8.5. The analysis showed that the FWI is expected to increase substantially, particularly in the southern parts with extreme values found above 100. In addition, the number of days with an FWI above the 90th percentile is projected to increase considerably (above 30 days), under both scenarios. Over the eastern and northern mainland, the increase is estimated with more than 70 days under RCP4.5, in the near future (2025–2049). Moreover, central and north-eastern parts of the country will be affected with 30 or more extreme consecutive days of prolonged fire weather, under RCP4.5, in the near future and under RCP8.5 in the far future (2075–2099). Finally, the expected rate of fire spread is more spatially extended all over the country and particularly from southern to northern parts compared to the historical state. Full article

This work presents the methodological approach followed for the study of the interaction of natural stone monuments with the local microclimate (exposure to RH, temperature alterations, wind, marine aerosol). This was implemented with the documentation of the associated weathering phenomena and the study of historic climate data of the area. The paper is focused on the main weathering mechanisms of the marly limestone at the Hellenistic theater of Zea in Piraeus, Greece. Based on the weathering phenomena identified, the development of the appropriate mitigation strategy was based on the physical, chemical and mechanical characterization of the natural stones, along with the evaluation of different conservation treatments, considering the characteristics of the coastal environment. Considering the mineralogy of marly limestones, silane-based materials were selected for providing both consolidation and water repellency effects. The evaluation of the conservation treatments was based on the modification of microstructural and water-related properties of natural stone samples, along with their consequent effect on their durability against accelerated aging tests. The results indicated that the design of migration actions proved to be multivariable parameter, depending on the intrinsic stone properties, the environmental parameters and the conservation efficacy of the treatments. Full article

Future changes in drought characteristics in Greece were investigated using dynamically downscaled high-resolution simulations of 5 km. The Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations were driven by EC-EARTH output for historical and future periods, under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5. For the drought analysis, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were calculated. This work contributed to achieve an improved characterization of the expected high-resolution changes of drought in Greece. Overall, the results indicate that Greece will face severe drought conditions in the upcoming years, particularly under RCP8.5, up to 8/5 y of severity change signal. The results of 6-month timescale indices suggest that more severe and prolonged drought events are expected with an increase of 4 months/5 y, particularly in areas of central and eastern part of the country in near future, and areas of the western parts in far future. The indices obtained in a 12-month timescale for the period 2075–2099 and under RCP8.5 have shown an increase in the mean duration of drought events along the entire country. Drought conditions will be more severe in lowland areas of agricultural interest (e.g., Thessaly and Crete). Full article

This paper introduces a climatic multi-hazard risk assessment for Greece, as the first-ever attempt to enhance scientific knowledge for the identification and definition of hazards, a critical element of risk-informed decision making. Building on an extensively validated climate database with a very high spatial resolution (5 × 5 km²), a detailed assessment of key climatic hazards is performed that allows for: (a) the analysis of hazard dynamics and their evolution due to climate change and (b) direct comparisons and spatial prioritization across Greece. The high geographical complexity of Greece requires that a large number of diverse hazards (heatwaves—TX, cold spells—TN, torrential rainfall—RR, snowstorms, and windstorms), need to be considered in order to correctly capture the country’s susceptibility to climate extremes. The current key findings include the dominance of cold-temperature extremes in mountainous regions and warm extremes over the coasts and plains. Extreme rainfall has been observed in the eastern mainland coasts and windstorms over Crete and the Aegean and Ionian Seas. Projections of the near future reveal more warm extremes in northern areas becoming more dominant all over the country by the end of the century. Full article

Safety in touristic destinations is of utmost importance since tourists’ preferences change frequently in response to emerging threats. Natural hazards are a significant risk and, as such, they need to be considered in the effort for safe tourism. Services and systems monitoring and predicting extreme natural phenomena and disasters in sites of special tourist and cultural interest can lead to more effective risk management and incident response. This paper presents Xenios, a system under development in Greece that provides early warning and risk communication services via web-based and mobile phone applications. We present the user requirements analysis contacted, which led to the design of a modular system architecture through a formal Business Process Model procedure. Currently, early warning systems for wildfire, floods, and extreme weather events are offered, based on a fusion of information from satellite imagery, meteorological forecasts, and risk estimation models. Moreover, visitors’ dispersion monitoring via unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and Wi-Fi connection signals is also offered, along with emergency response planning and ticketing system’s interfacing. The system is built around a modular architecture that permits the easy integration of new subsystems or other danger forecasting modules, depending on the site’s actual needs and limitations. Xenios also provides a mobile app for site visitors, which establishes a communication link for sending alarms, but also serves them with useful tourist information, so that they are encouraged to download and use the app. Finally, the opportunities for supporting a viable business model are also discussed. The results of this study could prove useful in designing other natural risk management systems for sites of cultural and natural interest. Full article

The present work introduces a case study on the climate resilience of interconnected critical infrastructures to forest fires, that was performed within the framework on H2020 EU-CIRCLE project (GA 653824). It was conducted in South France, one of the most touristic European regions, and also one of the regions at the highest forest fire risk that is projected to be amplified under future climate conditions. The case study has been implemented through a co-creation framework with local stakeholders, which is critical in moving beyond physical damages to the infrastructures, introducing the elements of infrastructure business continuity and societal resilience. Future forest fires extremes are anticipated to impact the interconnections of electricity and transportation networks that could further cascade to communities throughout South France. The work highlighted the benefits of enhancing co-operation between academia, emergency responders, and infrastructure operators as a critical element in enhancing resilience through increased awareness of climate impacts, new generated knowledge on fire extremes and better cooperation between involved agencies. Full article

This work introduces a methodology for assessing near-future fire weather pattern changes based on the Canadian Fire Weather Index system components (Fire Weather Index (FWI), Initial Spread Index (ISI), Fire Severity Rating (FSR)), applied in touristic areas in Greece. Four series of daily raster-based datasets for the fire seasons (May–October), concerning a historic (2006 to 2015) and a future climatology period (2036–2045), were created for the areas under consideration, based on high-resolution climate modelling with the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP), PCR 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The climate model data were obtained from the European Coordinated Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) climate database and consisted of atmospheric variables as required by the FWI system, at 12.5 km spatial resolution. The final datasets of the abovementioned variables used for the study were processed at 5 km spatial resolution for the domain of interest after applying regridding based on the nearest neighbour interpolating process. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) spatial operations, including spatial statistics and zonal analyses, were applied on the series of the derived daily raster maps in order to provide a number of output thematic layers. Moreover, historic FWI percentile values, which were estimated for Greece in the frame of a past research study of the Environmental Research Laboratory (EREL), were used as reference data for further evaluation of future fire weather changes. The straightforward methodology for the assessment of the evolution of spatial and temporal distribution of Fire weather Danger due to climate change presented herewith is an essential tool for enhancing the knowledge for the decision support process for forest fire prevention, planning and management policies in areas where the fire risk both in terms of fire hazard likelihood and expected impact is quite important due to human presence and cultural prestige, such as archaeological and tourist protected areas. Full article