Search Results (15)

There is an increasing trend to develop innovative information technologies that empower industrial companies and tool suppliers to pioneer new production methods and technologies. This study aims to support innovation in industrial practices by using information technologies to enable companies and tool suppliers to adopt advanced production methods. By focusing on the usability of hand tools, the research seeks to establish essential parameters and focuses on analyzing the perception of risk and its associated benefits when using hand tools. To examine risk perception and risk benefits when using hand tools, the analysis data were collected from workers in two countries and included studies processed by Domain-Specific Risk-Taking (DOSPERT). As a result, it is identified as risk-seeking in the sphere of workers who are very confident in their ability and capacity to perform the determined tasks and carry out risk aversion with other external parameters related to hand tools and environmental characteristics. In addition, the risk perception and worker behavior to deal with it are delineated, giving parameters to help managers avoid workers’ injuries or illnesses, identifying the main risk domains for using hand tools use in specific industrial tasks. Full article

Since private cars and vans accounted for more than 25% of global oil consumption and about 10% of energy-related CO₂ emissions in 2022, increasing the share of electric vehicle (EV) ownership is considered an important solution for reducing CO₂ emissions. At the same time, reducing emissions entails certain economic losses for those countries whose exports are largely covered by the oil trade. The explosive growth of the EV segment over the past 15 years has given rise to overly optimistic forecasts for global EV penetration by 2050. One of the major obstacles to such a development scenario is the limited availability of resources, especially critical materials. This paper proposes a mathematical model to predict the global EV fleet based on the limited availability of critical materials such as lithium, one of the key elements for battery production. The proposed model has three distinctive features. First, it shows that the classical logistic function, due to the specificity of its structure, cannot correctly describe market saturation in the case of using resources with limited serves. Second, even the use of a special multiplier that describes the market saturation process taking into account the depletion (finiteness) of the used resource does not obtain satisfactory economic results because of the “high speed” depletion of this resource. Third, the analytical solution of the final model indicates the point in time at which changes in saturation rate occur. The latter situation allows us to determine the tracking of market saturation, which is more similar to the process that is actually occurring. We believe that this model can also be validated to estimate the production of wind turbines that use rare earth elements such as neodymium and dysprosium (for the production of powerful and permanent magnets for wind turbines). These results also suggest the need for oil-exporting countries to technologically diversify their economies to minimize losses in the transition to a low-carbon economy. Full article

Concerns about climate change are a hot topic in the current debate about a sustainable future, and despite more than 30 years of international conferences, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP), the annual usage amount of fossil fuel-based energy sources has remained largely unchanged, and the green transition to a carbon-free energy system is progressing at a much slower pace than anticipated. This paper presents an original approach that consists in addressing the green transition’s dilemmas by analyzing the complex interplay of strongly interwoven forces hindering the rapid adoption of so-called green energy sources scrutinized from a three-fold perspective: socio-psychological; political–strategic and territorial; and technological. Moreover, these forces are ranked according to the magnitude of their impact on the anticipated transition to green, and it is estimated by logistic fit extrapolation that the total share of the contribution of low-carbon sources might reach a maximum of about 25% among all energy sources in 2050. A final original picture is presented, summarizing how all the involved forces are acting upon the expected transition as well as their consequences. Full article

The global energy transition is an uneven process, fundamentally related to the level of economic development of countries and their access to energy resources (renewable and non-renewable) to a large extent. The global climate is interconnected, and all nations impact it through their products and services. The six countries discussed—China, Brazil, Germany, Japan, Russia, and India—account for 44.8% of global primary energy consumption and 49% of global CO₂ emissions. Each of them has its own strategy for achieving carbon neutrality, based on different decarbonization scenarios, which, according to the authors, depend on geopolitical factors, national economy characteristics, and the established pragmatic goals and objectives. However, the “green agenda” itself may not always be among the top priorities when formulating energy strategies. The study objective is to analyze the feasibility of the stated goals in these countries using a combined logistic curve-based forecasting tool for predicting solar and wind production as well as investment volumes. It aims to justify the relation between solar and wind energy production and investment policies using a calculated technological coefficient. Results show similar, but time-shifted fluctuating investment dynamics in solar and wind energy trends in Japan, Germany and China, with Germany and Japan outperforming investment forecasts when considering the technology efficiency coefficient. Furthermore, the findings highlight the overwhelming appreciation of the unevenness of the green transition process, which will consequently make it impossible to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement until 2050. Taking these factors into consideration, exploratory decarbonization scenarios for these six major world economies alongside two dimensions, namely, the pace of green transition versus green technology and versus resources, are presented. Full article

Vaccination is critical to preventing the spread of diseases. It stimulates the immune system to produce antibodies that fight specific diseases, eradicating and reducing their incidence. However, despite the proven benefits, there is hesitation and skepticism in some areas due to side effects and lack of knowledge. Developing a data collection and processing system to analyze vaccination is critical in today’s world. Vaccines are necessary to minimize morbidity and mortality, but success depends on analyzing data on vaccine use and efficacy. This system can identify potential side effects and adverse reactions, ensuring vaccine safety and building public confidence. This research focuses on IT support for analyzing vaccination side effects. The aim of this work is to develop an architecture model of the system to collect and process data on the health status of vaccinated patients. The research methodology consists of analyzing sources on the consequences and side effects of vaccination. On the basis of this knowledge, the key attributes (stakeholders, sources of information, input data, data analysis processes) of the data collection and analysis system were analyzed using an enterprise architecture approach. As a result, a general model of the architecture of the data collection and analysis system was proposed. Full article

In an unstable economic climate, all market participants want to know is when is the timing to overcome a recession, and what measures and means to use for economic recovery. In this regard, the process through which the Eurozone economy has gained momentum since the summer of 2022 has been a volatile one. This was reflected in a sharp rise in the price level, followed by a sharp rise in the ECB interest rates. The purpose of this paper is to provide short-term forecasts of the main parameters of monetary and fiscal policy by the euro area monetary authorities, based on a model developed by the authors. The distinctive feature of the presented and proposed model lies in the particularly careful selection of the parameter values based on actual statistical data. The statistics used for the proposed model cover the period from 2015 to December 2022. The simulation results show that the European Central Bank (ECB) needs to maintain a policy of high interest rates for a period of 12 to 14 months, which will help to bring inflation down to 2–3 percent in the future and move to a stage and phase of sustainable economic growth. Full article

Globalization activates qualitative changes in multiple economic entities and requires the development of alternative forms of business organization. At present, one of the most promising development tracks is represented by the implementation of network structures, aimed at achieving common goals and obtaining a win-win outcome via joint effort. Business structures that invite dynamic and consistent transformations on a wide scale prove to be able to successfully compete in the market. In this regard, a project management system at a medical hub serves as a vital tool for implementation of open innovation. Participation in the medical hub allows coordinating intentions and establishing aligned communication between all stakeholders, suppliers and private institutions. In modern sectors of the economy, a developing hub becomes a unique structure, because it unites the contributions of the most important healthcare specialists in a single framework. This research examines the structure of healthcare business process models, and scrutinizes the communication between suppliers, partners and consumers of medical services. It also defines the main directions and outlines strategic goals. Assessment of performance of a project management system at a medical hub proves to be the issue of particular relevance, due to the fact that its tasks should be primarily aimed at increasing the share of successful projects and implementing only those ones that comply with the strategy. Based on the latter, a model for the project management system at a medical hub was designed. As a result, the authors developed an assessment mechanism for innovative projects using SNA methods that align with intra-communication interactions (transactions) between the participants in a medical hub. The conducted research allows concluding that in the current era of cutting-edge technologies, the project management system should be considered the most effective management tool for coordinating the actions of a corporate structure at a medical hub. Full article

The active digitalization of the healthcare system has given impetus to the emergence of a new type of enterprise—high-tech medical organizations (HMO). Their main distinguishing feature is the use of innovative high-tech medical equipment. However, the high cost of this equipment has become a factor slowing down the development of such organizations. This paper considers the life-cycle contract (LCC) as a special form of interaction between stakeholders and investments throughout the life cycles of equipment. Moreover, to provide technological support, continuous acquisition and life-cycle support (CALS) technologies, which are based on the same principles of working with the life cycle as LCC, are proposed. This question turned out to be a significant research gap, which was not sufficiently reflected in the available world studies. Thus, the aim of the current study is to describe the features of the use of LCC for HMO using CALS technologies and the impact of the life cycle of high-tech medical equipment on LCC, as well as to present the innovative component of the proposed model. Based on the analysis of the literature and the best world practices, the authors propose a visualization of the interaction of all stakeholders within the LCC for HMO. Such a decision is extremely relevant for developing organizations, public authorities and investors around the world. Full article

Seventeen sustainable development goals were formulated to create a harmonious world order for the benefit of different nations and peoples. At the same time, economic practice provides a lot of examples of conflicts of an economic nature between individual sustainable development goals. One of these conflicts is the need for environmental imperatives and economic growth when a massive assessment of land used for crop production and green energy projects is needed. The present paper considers a non-traditional approach to the mass evaluation of land plots on the condition that geographic information systems provide the main source of information, such as the case of land allocation for green energy facilities and evaluation of agricultural plots. The novelty of the proposed approach firstly means the development of a comparative approach, which receives much less attention in the valuation literature than cost and income approaches, as it can give an adequate picture of the current state of the market. The model includes the study of the entire dataset, the selection of model distributions and the construction of estimates based on model distributions. The methodology of multivariate lognormal distribution of factors and prices of analogues is used. The peculiarity of the market evaluation of land plots in such cases is, as a rule, the absence of rank predictors and sufficient number of continuous predictors, which provides a base for the application of a novel approach. The method of express testing of hypotheses about joint normality of logarithms of values of pricing factors and prices is proposed. The market value is estimated as an estimate of the modal value of conditional lognormal price distribution. Secondly, the problem of market valuation is solved in case of the almost complete absence of information about price-forming factors in the areas being assessed, and thirdly, the factors are determined based on geoinformation databases (distance to the nearest large city, regional center, federal highway, large rivers, lakes, and solid waste landfills), which allow for market assessment in the absence of information on pricing factors for land plots, except for the offer price and the plot area. The research was necessitated by the claim to determine on a specific date the cadastral value of agricultural land for the purposes of taxation, corresponding to the market value, in the almost complete absence of information on pricing factors in the assessed areas. The value of land reflects a complex combination of factors, so the use of the proposed mathematical toolkit allows for building a consistent model for the evaluation of land where improvements are absent or have no value in terms of land acquisition purposes. Full article

The consideration of infectious diseases from a mathematical point of view can reveal possible options for epidemic control and fighting the spread of infection. However, predicting and modeling the spread of a new, previously unexplored virus is still difficult. The present paper examines the possibility of using a new approach to predicting the statistical indicators of the epidemic of a new type of virus based on the example of COVID-19. The important result of the study is the description of the principle of dynamic balance of epidemiological processes, which has not been previously used by other researchers for epidemic modeling. The new approach is also based on solving the problem of predicting the future dynamics of precisely random values of model parameters, which is used for defining the future values of the total number of: cases (C); recovered and dead (R); and active cases (I). Intelligent heuristic algorithms are proposed for calculating the future trajectories of stochastic parameters, which are called the percentage increase in the total number of confirmed cases of the disease and the dynamic characteristics of epidemiological processes. Examples are given of the application of the proposed approach for making forecasts of the considered indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic, in Russia and European countries, during the first wave of the epidemic. Full article

The outburst of the COVID-19 pandemic and its rapid spread throughout the world in 2020 shed a new light on mathematic models describing the nature of epidemics. However, as the pandemic shocked economies to a much greater extent than earlier epidemics, the recovery potential of economies was emphasized and its inclusion in epidemic models is becoming more important. The present paper deals with the issues of modeling the recovery of economic systems that have undergone severe medical shocks, such as COVID-19. The proposed mathematical model considers the close relationship between the dynamics of pandemics and economic development. This distinguishes it from purely “medical” models, which are used exclusively to study the dynamics of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike standard SIR models, the present approach involves the introduction of the “vaccine” equation to the SIR model and introduces correction components that include the possibility of re-infection and other nuances such as the number of people at risk of infection (not sick with COVID but not vaccinated); sick with COVID; recovered; fully vaccinated (two doses) citizens; the rate of COVID infection; the rate of recovery of infected individuals; the vaccination coefficients, respectively, for those who have not been ill and recovered from COVID; the coefficient of revaccination; the COVID re-infection rate; and the population fluctuation coefficient, which takes into account the effect of population change as a result of births and deaths and due to the departure and return of citizens. The present model contains governance so that it not only generates scenario projections but also models specific governance measures as well to include the pandemic and restore economic growth. The model also adds management issues, so that it not only generates scenario forecasts but simultaneously models specific management measures as well, aiming to suppress the pandemic and restoring economic growth. The model was implemented on specific data on the dynamics of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in selected developing economies. Full article

The COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent emergency measures had a fundamental and disruptive impact on societies and, in particular, on the educational sector. The transition of the modality of educational delivery from face-to-face to online occurred within days; this research study considered the concepts of digital trust and digital access, using structuration, postmodernism, and critical social theory as lenses to understand Higher Education (HE) student experiences during the first wave of the lockdown. The study compared these aspects in Hungary, South Africa, and Wales (UK) with different digital and network readiness indices. The digital development of the countries is presented using both the Digital Intelligence and Network Readiness indices. The research approach was cross-country, international, comparative, inductive, and quantitative. The research study found that there was a significant relationship between the countries’ GDP and their network readiness, impacting students’ online learning experiences. Significant differences were found between the participating universities in terms of digital access and digital trust; this research provides valuable insights for informing future pedagogical approaches and teaching best practice, specifically for residential universities. Understanding challenges and barriers to student learning experiences, and the impact of inequitable access to digital technologies and communication, is key for future pedagogical policy and practice. Several recommendations are made to inform practice. Full article

In 2020, a global pandemic led to lockdowns, and subsequent social and business restrictions. These required overnight implementation of emergency measures to permit continued functioning of vital industries. Digital technologies and platforms made this switch feasible, but it also introduced several cyber related vulnerabilities, which students might not have known how to mitigate. For this study, the Global Cyber Security Index and the Cyber Risk literacy and education index were used to provide a cyber security context for each country. This research project—an international, cross-university, comparative, quantitative project—aimed to explore the risk attitudes and concerns, as well as protective behaviours adopted by, students at a South African, a Welsh and a Hungarian University, during the pandemic. This study’s findings align with the relative rankings of the Oliver Wyman Risk Literacy and Education Index for the countries in which the universities reside. This study revealed significant differences between the student behaviours of students within these universities. The most important differences were identified between students’ risk attitudes and concerns. It was also discovered that South African students reported having changed their protective online behaviours to the greatest extent, since the pandemic commenced. Recommendations are made suggesting that cyber security training and education, as well as improving the digital trust and confidence in digital platforms, are critical. Full article

The pandemic and subsequent ‘lockdowns’ dramatically changed the educational landscape of higher education institutions. Before-COVID-19, traditional universities had choices in pedagogical practice, which included a variety of teaching delivery modes. Overnight, a single mode of delivery became the only option for traditional higher education institutions. All services migrated to digital platforms, leading to a period of “emergency eLearning”. The full impact of this sudden shift to digital platforms on all cohorts of students is still unclear. A measure of disruption to the normal student learning experience, especially for those attending traditional universities, was inevitable. Moreover, this disruption was varied depending on the University’s country and the country’s lockdown logistics. This international, comparative, quantitative research project investigated and explored higher education students’ perceptions of emergency eLearning during the COVID-19 pandemic. Experiences of students at universities in three countries were evaluated in terms of four dimensions: (1) home learning environment, (2) engagement, (3) participation preference, and (4) impact on learning skills. The research revealed significant differences between the participating universities students’ experiences. The most important differences were in the ‘home learning environment’, followed by ‘engagement’ and the perception of ‘impact on learning skills’. The differences in the ‘home learning environment’ can be attributed to the differing economic and digital development of the surveyed countries: South Africa, Wales, and Hungary. Finally, different cultural backgrounds suggest a noticeable difference in student engagement, participation, and learning skills. Full article

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) virus is a major cause of central nervous system infections in endemic countries. Here, we present clinical and laboratory characteristics of a large international cohort of patients with confirmed TBE using a uniform clinical protocol. Patients were recruited in eight centers from six European countries between 2010 and 2017. A detailed description of clinical signs and symptoms was recorded. The obtained information enabled a reliable classification in 553 of 555 patients: 207 (37.3%) had meningitis, 273 (49.2%) meningoencephalitis, 15 (2.7%) meningomyelitis, and 58 (10.5%) meningoencephalomyelitis; 41 (7.4%) patients had a peripheral paresis of extremities, 13 (2.3%) a central paresis of extremities, and 25 (4.5%) had single or multiple cranial nerve palsies. Five (0.9%) patients died during acute illness. Outcome at discharge was recorded in 298 patients. Of 176 (59.1%) patients with incomplete recovery, 80 (27%) displayed persisting symptoms or signs without recovery expectation. This study provides further evidence that TBE is a severe disease with a large proportion of patients with incomplete recovery. We suggest monitoring TBE in endemic European countries using a uniform protocol to record the full clinical spectrum of the disease. Full article