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Climate Model Projections: Sea-Level Rise and Impacts on Coastal Defense Decision-Making

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A special issue of Water (ISSN 2073-4441). This special issue belongs to the section "Water and Climate Change".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 January 2022) | Viewed by 22343

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Special Issue Editors

Prof. Tony Wong

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Guest Editor

Rochester Institute of Technology, Rochester, New York, United States
Interests: model calibration, uncertainty characterization, Bayesian statistics, geophysical and climate modeling, sea-level rise, coastal impacts and risk

Dr. Vivek Srikrishnan

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor

Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States
Interests: coastal impacts, decision-making under uncertainty, climate risk, risk modeling, uncertainty characterization

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The continued rise of sea levels poses risks for millions of people in diverse groups around the world. A sound understanding of the processes contributing to future sea levels is critical for protecting population, infrastructure and other interests along the world’s coasts. Estimates of coastal impacts from climate changes hinge critically on projections of future hazards, including potential changes in coastal sea levels and storm surges, as well as drivers of compound flooding such as streamflow and precipitation extremes. However, these projections are deeply uncertain. Consequently, uncertainties in the geophysical processes involved, the mathematical models used to approximate those processes and the observational data used to calibrate those models all lead to uncertainty in coastal impacts and the efficacy of strategies to manage coastal risks. Thus, careful modeling of these processes and characterization of uncertainties is critical for managing risks in coastal zones.

This special issue aims to collect a broad cross-section of current research related to the modeling of sea-level change, estimation of its impacts on coastal zones and decision analytical approaches to managing the risks posed by sea-level change. Specifically, contributions to this special issue are encouraged in topics including, but not limited to:

uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis for processes related to sea-level hazards
probabilistic projections of sea-level change
compound flooding
coastal risk assessment and management
coastal adaptation and decision analysis

Prof. Tony Wong
Dr. Vivek Srikrishnan
Guest Editors

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Keywords

uncertainty characterization
sea-level rise
nuisance flooding
coastal flooding
compound flooding
storm surge and waves
tides
coastal hydrodynamics
coastal risk management
decision-making

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Published Papers (5 papers)

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Research

13 pages, 3170 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Effects of Sea Level Rise on Land Use and Ecosystem Services in the Liaohe Delta

by Liehui Zhi, Muxinzhou Gou, Xiaowen Li, Junhong Bai, Baoshan Cui, Qingyue Zhang, Gaojing Wang, Hazrat Bilal and Usman Abdullahi

Water 2022, 14(6), 841; https://doi.org/10.3390/w14060841 - 8 Mar 2022

Cited by 9 | Viewed by 3425

Abstract

Sea level rise (SLR) has a significant impact on the ecosystem services in coastal wetlands. Taking the Liaohe Delta as an example, the SLAMM (Sea Level Rise Affecting Marsh Model) was used to simulate the medium-term (2010–2050) and the long-term (2010–2100) of the spatiotemporal changes of land use in the four scenarios (0.5, 1, 1.5, and 2 m) of sea level rise by 2100 and then based on the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs Model) to assess and compare the impact of SLR on ecosystem services. The results are as follows. (1) The difference in SLR height greatly influences the transformation of the coastal wetland pattern. In 2100, the core construction land would be affected on a large scale for landward salt marsh migration for 1.5 and 2 m SLR scenarios. (2) Due to inundation, erosion, and vegetation succession, the mean total carbon storage for the four scenarios will decrease by about 0.58 × 10⁶ t. The habitat quality is relatively stable, and its value is about 0.7. The nitrogen and phosphorus loads will be reduced by 26.27% and 28.22%, respectively. The region spatial distribution of freshwater marshes will shrink, while the transformation of salt marshes is inconsistent. The large-scale formation of regularly flooded marshes can also provide high levels of ecosystem services as salt marshes. In conclusion, the coastal wetlands show two evolution patterns under the four sea level rise scenarios, the two low ones show a slow change, and the two high ones are large. Quantitative assessment of the effects, scope and intensity of the impact of SLR on the function of ecosystem services in the coastal wetlands can provide reference and indicative significance for wetland development, construction, ecological conservation, and restoration in similar coastal areas under the impact of climate change. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Model Projections: Sea-Level Rise and Impacts on Coastal Defense Decision-Making)

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18 pages, 4262 KiB

Open AccessArticle

A Tale of Shaheen’s Cyclone Consequences in Al Khaboura City, Oman

by Amna M. AlRuheili

Water 2022, 14(3), 340; https://doi.org/10.3390/w14030340 - 24 Jan 2022

Cited by 15 | Viewed by 4712

Abstract

Natural hazards due to climate change have become the new norm in our cities. These events show the vulnerabilities of our cities to extreme conditions, mainly displayed as flash wadi flooding as a result of a short duration of intensive and eroded its shoreline along the coast, resulting in huge impacts, including human losses and urban and infrastructural damages. This study used the urban flood risk mitigation model through an open-source tool—Integrated Evaluation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-off (InVEST)—to estimate the amount of runoff due to two extreme rainfall events for each watershed considered. We used a digital shoreline analysis system (DSAS) to quantify the Al Khaboura shoreline erosion as a result of Shaheen’s storm surge. With the DSAS, the model showed that, during the short period of the event, the Al Khaboura coastal line was eroded by 16.33 m/y, representing 7.82% of its coastal line, up to a maximum erosion distance of 1428.5 m. The weighted linear regression showed the average mean rate of shoreline change of 6.79 m/y. These models could provide a clear picture of the city vulnerability to allow us to propose a corrective measure for interventions at local and regional scales. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Model Projections: Sea-Level Rise and Impacts on Coastal Defense Decision-Making)

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14 pages, 5957 KiB

Open AccessArticle

An Analytical Solution for Investigating the Characteristics of Tidal Wave and Surge Propagation Associated with Non-Tropical and Tropical Cyclones in the Humen Estuary, Pearl River

by Zhuo Zhang, Fei Guo, Di Hu and Dong Zhang

Water 2021, 13(17), 2375; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13172375 - 29 Aug 2021

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2731

Abstract

The Humen Estuary, one of the largest outlets of the Pearl River, is a long and wide tidal channel with a considerable tidal flow every year. Storm surges, always superposing spring tide, travel from the estuary and endanger the safety of people living around the river. However, little research has quantified the relationship between the hydraulic characteristics and the geometry features in this estuary. In this regard, an analytical model, combined with a numerical model, is applied to investigate the characteristics of tidal waves and surge propagations in the estuary. Given the geometric, topographic, and tidal parameters at the mouth of the estuary, the tidal damping and wave celerity can be computed. The numerical results were used to calibrate and verify the analytical model. The results indicate that the analytical model can describe the astronomical tidal dynamics very well in correspondence with the numerical results. However, the analytical model cannot predict the tide well when a tropical cyclone-induced surge is superimposed on the astronomical tide. The reason is that this model does not take the wind stress and the pressure depression into account. After reducing Manning’s coefficient, we found that the analytical results could be close to the numerical results. Finally, we analyzed the characteristics of the tidal wave in the Humen Estuary using the analytical solution and its parameters. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Model Projections: Sea-Level Rise and Impacts on Coastal Defense Decision-Making)

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21 pages, 35473 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Risk Assessment of Coastal Flooding under Different Inundation Situations in Southwest of Taiwan (Tainan City)

by Moslem Imani, Chung-Yen Kuo, Pin-Chieh Chen, Kuo-Hsin Tseng, Huan-Chin Kao, Chi-Ming Lee and Wen-Hau Lan

Water 2021, 13(6), 880; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13060880 - 23 Mar 2021

Cited by 7 | Viewed by 5505

Abstract

The Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable to the effects of global warming including more frequent and intense natural disasters. Seawater inundation, one of the most serious disasters, could damage human property and life. Regional sea level rise, highest astronomic tide, vertical land motions, and extreme sea level could result in episodic, recurrent, or permanent coastal inundation. Therefore, assessing potential flooding areas is a critical task for coastal management plans. In this study, a simulation of the static flooding situation in the southwest coast of Taiwan (Tainan city) at the end of this century was conducted by using a combination of the Taiwan Digital Elevation Model (DEM), regional sea level changes reconstructed by tide gauge and altimetry data, vertical land deformation derived from leveling and GPS data, and ocean tide models. In addition, the extreme sea level situation, which typically results from high water on a spring tide and a storm surge, was also evaluated by the joint probability method using tide gauge records. To analyze the possible static flood risk and avoid overestimation of inundation areas, a region-based image segmentation method was employed in the estimated future topographic data to generate the flood risk map. In addition, an extreme sea level situation, which typically results from high water on a spring tide and a storm surge, was also evaluated by the joint probability method using tide gauge records. Results showed that the range of inundation depth around the Tainan area is 0–8 m with a mean value of 4 m. In addition, most of the inundation areas are agricultural land use (60% of total inundation area of Tainan), and two important international wetlands, 88.5% of Zengwun Estuary Wetlands and 99.5% of Sihcao Wetlands (the important Black-faced Spoonbills Refuge) will disappear under the combined situation. The risk assessment of flooding areas is potentially useful for coastal ocean and land management to develop appropriate adaptation policies for preventing disasters resulting from global climate change. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Model Projections: Sea-Level Rise and Impacts on Coastal Defense Decision-Making)

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18 pages, 9864 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Unravelling the Importance of Uncertainties in Global-Scale Coastal Flood Risk Assessments under Sea Level Rise

by Jeremy Rohmer, Daniel Lincke, Jochen Hinkel, Gonéri Le Cozannet, Erwin Lambert and Athanasios T. Vafeidis

Water 2021, 13(6), 774; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13060774 - 12 Mar 2021

Cited by 14 | Viewed by 4805

Abstract

Global scale assessments of coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise are associated with a wide range of uncertainties, including those in future projections of socioeconomic development (shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios), of greenhouse gas concentrations (RCP scenarios), and of sea-level rise at regional scale (RSLR), as well as structural uncertainties related to the modelling of extreme sea levels, data on exposed population and assets, and the costs of flood damages, etc. This raises the following questions: which sources of uncertainty need to be considered in such assessments and what is the relative importance of each source of uncertainty in the final results? Using the coastal flood module of the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment modelling framework, we extensively explore the impact of scenario, data and model uncertainties in a global manner, i.e., by considering a large number (>2000) of simulation results. The influence of the uncertainties on the two risk metrics of expected annual damage (EAD), and adaptation costs (AC) related to coastal protection is assessed at global scale by combining variance-based sensitivity indices with a regression-based machine learning technique. On this basis, we show that the research priorities in terms of future data/knowledge acquisition to reduce uncertainty on EAD and AC differ depending on the considered time horizon. In the short term (before 2040), EAD uncertainty could be significantly decreased by 25 and 75% if the uncertainty of the translation of physical damage into costs and of the modelling of extreme sea levels could respectively be reduced. For AC, it is RSLR that primarily drives short-term uncertainty (with a contribution ~50%). In the longer term (>2050), uncertainty in EAD could be largely reduced by 75% if the SSP scenario could be unambiguously identified. For AC, it is the RCP selection that helps reducing uncertainty (up to 90% by the end of the century). Altogether, the uncertainty in future human activities (SSP and RCP) are the dominant source of the uncertainty in future coastal flood risk. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Model Projections: Sea-Level Rise and Impacts on Coastal Defense Decision-Making)

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