Special Issue "Climate Model Projections: Sea-Level Rise and Impacts on Coastal Defense Decision-Making"

A special issue of Water (ISSN 2073-4441). This special issue belongs to the section "Water and Climate Change".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 31 January 2022.

Special Issue Editors

Prof. Tony Wong
E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Rochester Institute of Technology, Rochester, New York, United States
Interests: model calibration, uncertainty characterization, Bayesian statistics, geophysical and climate modeling, sea-level rise, coastal impacts and risk
Dr. Vivek Srikrishnan
E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States
Interests: coastal impacts, decision-making under uncertainty, climate risk, risk modeling, uncertainty characterization

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The continued rise of sea levels poses risks for millions of people in diverse groups around the world. A sound understanding of the processes contributing to future sea levels is critical for protecting population, infrastructure and other interests along the world’s coasts. Estimates of coastal impacts from climate changes hinge critically on projections of future hazards, including potential changes in coastal sea levels and storm surges, as well as drivers of compound flooding such as streamflow and precipitation extremes. However, these projections are deeply uncertain. Consequently, uncertainties in the geophysical processes involved, the mathematical models used to approximate those processes and the observational data used to calibrate those models all lead to uncertainty in coastal impacts and the efficacy of strategies to manage coastal risks. Thus, careful modeling of these processes and characterization of uncertainties is critical for managing risks in coastal zones.

This special issue aims to collect a broad cross-section of current research related to the modeling of sea-level change, estimation of its impacts on coastal zones and decision analytical approaches to managing the risks posed by sea-level change. Specifically, contributions to this special issue are encouraged in topics including, but not limited to:

  • uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis for processes related to sea-level hazards
  • probabilistic projections of sea-level change
  • compound flooding
  • coastal risk assessment and management
  • coastal adaptation and decision analysis

Prof. Tony Wong
Dr. Vivek Srikrishnan
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All papers will be peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Water is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2000 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • uncertainty characterization
  • sea-level rise
  • nuisance flooding
  • coastal flooding
  • compound flooding
  • storm surge and waves
  • tides
  • coastal hydrodynamics
  • coastal risk management
  • decision-making

Published Papers (3 papers)

Order results
Result details
Select all
Export citation of selected articles as:

Research

Article
An Analytical Solution for Investigating the Characteristics of Tidal Wave and Surge Propagation Associated with Non-Tropical and Tropical Cyclones in the Humen Estuary, Pearl River
Water 2021, 13(17), 2375; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13172375 - 29 Aug 2021
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 570
Abstract
The Humen Estuary, one of the largest outlets of the Pearl River, is a long and wide tidal channel with a considerable tidal flow every year. Storm surges, always superposing spring tide, travel from the estuary and endanger the safety of people living [...] Read more.
The Humen Estuary, one of the largest outlets of the Pearl River, is a long and wide tidal channel with a considerable tidal flow every year. Storm surges, always superposing spring tide, travel from the estuary and endanger the safety of people living around the river. However, little research has quantified the relationship between the hydraulic characteristics and the geometry features in this estuary. In this regard, an analytical model, combined with a numerical model, is applied to investigate the characteristics of tidal waves and surge propagations in the estuary. Given the geometric, topographic, and tidal parameters at the mouth of the estuary, the tidal damping and wave celerity can be computed. The numerical results were used to calibrate and verify the analytical model. The results indicate that the analytical model can describe the astronomical tidal dynamics very well in correspondence with the numerical results. However, the analytical model cannot predict the tide well when a tropical cyclone-induced surge is superimposed on the astronomical tide. The reason is that this model does not take the wind stress and the pressure depression into account. After reducing Manning’s coefficient, we found that the analytical results could be close to the numerical results. Finally, we analyzed the characteristics of the tidal wave in the Humen Estuary using the analytical solution and its parameters. Full article
Show Figures

Figure 1

Article
Risk Assessment of Coastal Flooding under Different Inundation Situations in Southwest of Taiwan (Tainan City)
Water 2021, 13(6), 880; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13060880 - 23 Mar 2021
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1064
Abstract
The Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable to the effects of global warming including more frequent and intense natural disasters. Seawater inundation, one of the most serious disasters, could damage human property and life. Regional sea level rise, highest astronomic tide, vertical land [...] Read more.
The Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable to the effects of global warming including more frequent and intense natural disasters. Seawater inundation, one of the most serious disasters, could damage human property and life. Regional sea level rise, highest astronomic tide, vertical land motions, and extreme sea level could result in episodic, recurrent, or permanent coastal inundation. Therefore, assessing potential flooding areas is a critical task for coastal management plans. In this study, a simulation of the static flooding situation in the southwest coast of Taiwan (Tainan city) at the end of this century was conducted by using a combination of the Taiwan Digital Elevation Model (DEM), regional sea level changes reconstructed by tide gauge and altimetry data, vertical land deformation derived from leveling and GPS data, and ocean tide models. In addition, the extreme sea level situation, which typically results from high water on a spring tide and a storm surge, was also evaluated by the joint probability method using tide gauge records. To analyze the possible static flood risk and avoid overestimation of inundation areas, a region-based image segmentation method was employed in the estimated future topographic data to generate the flood risk map. In addition, an extreme sea level situation, which typically results from high water on a spring tide and a storm surge, was also evaluated by the joint probability method using tide gauge records. Results showed that the range of inundation depth around the Tainan area is 0–8 m with a mean value of 4 m. In addition, most of the inundation areas are agricultural land use (60% of total inundation area of Tainan), and two important international wetlands, 88.5% of Zengwun Estuary Wetlands and 99.5% of Sihcao Wetlands (the important Black-faced Spoonbills Refuge) will disappear under the combined situation. The risk assessment of flooding areas is potentially useful for coastal ocean and land management to develop appropriate adaptation policies for preventing disasters resulting from global climate change. Full article
Show Figures

Figure 1

Article
Unravelling the Importance of Uncertainties in Global-Scale Coastal Flood Risk Assessments under Sea Level Rise
Water 2021, 13(6), 774; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13060774 - 12 Mar 2021
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1138
Abstract
Global scale assessments of coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise are associated with a wide range of uncertainties, including those in future projections of socioeconomic development (shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios), of greenhouse gas concentrations (RCP [...] Read more.
Global scale assessments of coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise are associated with a wide range of uncertainties, including those in future projections of socioeconomic development (shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios), of greenhouse gas concentrations (RCP scenarios), and of sea-level rise at regional scale (RSLR), as well as structural uncertainties related to the modelling of extreme sea levels, data on exposed population and assets, and the costs of flood damages, etc. This raises the following questions: which sources of uncertainty need to be considered in such assessments and what is the relative importance of each source of uncertainty in the final results? Using the coastal flood module of the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment modelling framework, we extensively explore the impact of scenario, data and model uncertainties in a global manner, i.e., by considering a large number (>2000) of simulation results. The influence of the uncertainties on the two risk metrics of expected annual damage (EAD), and adaptation costs (AC) related to coastal protection is assessed at global scale by combining variance-based sensitivity indices with a regression-based machine learning technique. On this basis, we show that the research priorities in terms of future data/knowledge acquisition to reduce uncertainty on EAD and AC differ depending on the considered time horizon. In the short term (before 2040), EAD uncertainty could be significantly decreased by 25 and 75% if the uncertainty of the translation of physical damage into costs and of the modelling of extreme sea levels could respectively be reduced. For AC, it is RSLR that primarily drives short-term uncertainty (with a contribution ~50%). In the longer term (>2050), uncertainty in EAD could be largely reduced by 75% if the SSP scenario could be unambiguously identified. For AC, it is the RCP selection that helps reducing uncertainty (up to 90% by the end of the century). Altogether, the uncertainty in future human activities (SSP and RCP) are the dominant source of the uncertainty in future coastal flood risk. Full article
Show Figures

Figure 1

Back to TopTop