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Rainfall Variability, Drought, and Land Degradation
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Rainfall Variability, Drought, and Land Degradation

A special issue of Water (ISSN 2073-4441). This special issue belongs to the section "Soil and Water".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 15 July 2026 | Viewed by 1111

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Moncef Bouaziz

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Department of Mine Surveying and Geodesy, TU Bergakademie Freiberg, 09599 Freiberg, Germany
Interests: rainfall; drought; soil; land degradation; statistical analysis; trends
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Dr. Harris Vangelis

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
School of Rural, Surveying and Geoinformatics Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, EL15780 Athens, Greece
Interests: drought identification; drought severity assessment; water resources management
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Water scarcity is a growing concern in many regions of the world, driven by increasing climate variability and shifts in rainfall patterns. Irregular rainfall and prolonged droughts are placing immense pressure on water resources, impacting agriculture, ecosystems, and human livelihoods. In arid and semi-arid regions, where water availability is already limited, these changes accelerate land degradation, leading to soil erosion, declining agricultural productivity, and desertification.

This Special Issue of Water focuses on the critical links between rainfall variability, drought, and land degradation. We invite studies that explore:

  • Rainfall trends and hydrological changes: How shifting precipitation patterns influence water availability, runoff, and groundwater recharge.
  • Drought severity and impacts: Assessing the frequency, duration, and intensity of droughts and their effects on soil moisture, vegetation, and river flows.
  • Land degradation under changing climate conditions: Examining how water scarcity contributes to desertification, loss of arable land, and ecosystem decline.
  • Remote sensing and modelling approaches: Utilizing Earth observation data and predictive models to monitor rainfall variability and its effects on landscapes.
  • Sustainable water and land management strategies: Addressing challenges in mitigating drought impacts and promoting resilience in vulnerable regions.

This Special Issue aims to advance our understanding of the intricate relationship between water availability and land sustainability. By fostering interdisciplinary research, we hope to highlight solutions that enhance water resource management and reduce the risks associated with drought and land degradation. We encourage contributions from hydrology, climate science, soil science, remote sensing, and environmental policy to provide a comprehensive perspective on this urgent issue.

Dr. Moncef Bouaziz
Dr. Harris Vangelis
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 250 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for assessment.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Water is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2600 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • rainfall
  • soil
  • land degradation
  • variabiltity
  • drought
  • modeling

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Published Papers (2 papers)

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Research

24 pages, 4712 KB  
Article
A Century of Data: Machine Learning Approaches to Drought Prediction and Trend Analysis in Arid Regions
by Moncef Bouaziz, Mohamed Amine Abid, Emna Medhioub and André John
Water 2025, 17(24), 3567; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17243567 - 16 Dec 2025
Abstract
Droughts are among the most critical natural hazards affecting agricultural productivity, water resources, and food security worldwide, with climate change intensifying their frequency and severity. Accurate monitoring and forecasting of drought events are therefore essential for effective risk management and sustainable resource planning. [...] Read more.
Droughts are among the most critical natural hazards affecting agricultural productivity, water resources, and food security worldwide, with climate change intensifying their frequency and severity. Accurate monitoring and forecasting of drought events are therefore essential for effective risk management and sustainable resource planning. In this study, we systematically evaluated the performance of four machine learning approaches—Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest (RF), K-Nearest Neighbor (kNN), and Linear Regression (LR)—for tracking and predicting the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at multiple temporal scales (1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, and 24 months). We utilized a century-long precipitation dataset from a meteorological station in south-eastern Tunisia to compute SPI values and forecast drought occurrences. The Mann–Kendall trend test was applied to assess the presence of significant trends in the monthly SPI series. The results revealed upward trends in SPI 12, SPI 18, and SPI 24, indicating decreasing drought severity over longer time scales, while SPI 1, SPI 3, SPI 6, and SPI 9 did not exhibit statistically significant trends. Model efficacy was assessed using a suite of statistical metrics: mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and the correlation coefficient (R). While all models exhibited robust predictive performance, Support Vector Regression (SVR) proved superior, achieving the highest accuracy across both short- and long-term time horizons. These findings highlight the effectiveness of machine learning approaches in drought forecasting and provide critical insights for regional water resource management, agricultural planning, and ecological sustainability. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Rainfall Variability, Drought, and Land Degradation)
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26 pages, 17979 KB  
Article
Various Indices of Meteorological and Hydrological Drought in the Warta Basin in Poland
by Joanna Wicher-Dysarz, Tomasz Dysarz, Mariusz Sojka, Joanna Jaskuła, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz and Supanon Kaiwong
Water 2025, 17(21), 3035; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17213035 - 22 Oct 2025
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 684
Abstract
The Warta River basin, Poland’s third-largest basin, is highly vulnerable to drought, which occurs in both cold and warm seasons. This study examined meteorological and hydrological droughts using daily temperature and precipitation data from 211 meteorological stations and discharge data from 15 hydrological [...] Read more.
The Warta River basin, Poland’s third-largest basin, is highly vulnerable to drought, which occurs in both cold and warm seasons. This study examined meteorological and hydrological droughts using daily temperature and precipitation data from 211 meteorological stations and discharge data from 15 hydrological gauges for 2000–2020. Four indicators were applied: SPI and SPEI for meteorological drought, and SRI and ThLM for hydrological drought. The analysis revealed prolonged droughts and a systematic decline in SRI values, especially from March to September. The longest event, a shallow drought, lasted 555 days between 2019 and 2020 at the Sławsk gauge. The period from 2018 to 2020 was particularly severe, with drought intensity increasing and affecting 70–80% of river flows, while events persisted longer than usual. Water withdrawals, especially for municipal use, further reduced river levels. The section between Uniejów and Oborniki, located downstream of one of Poland’s largest reservoirs, proved most vulnerable to hydrological drought. Overall, results indicate a deteriorating water situation in the Warta basin, with the most significant deficits in spring and summer. These trends pose serious challenges for water management and water supply security. An improved understanding of meteorological and hydrological droughts and their impact is essential for managing the water–food–environment–energy nexus, including restrictions on water use for domestic, economic, and agricultural purposes, as well as the functioning of aquatic ecosystems. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Rainfall Variability, Drought, and Land Degradation)
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