Applied Public Finance and Fiscal Analysis

A special issue of Journal of Risk and Financial Management (ISSN 1911-8074). This special issue belongs to the section "Economics and Finance".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (28 February 2026) | Viewed by 10704

Special Issue Editors


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Guest Editor
Department of Finance and Insurance, University of Insurance and Finance, 1000 Sofia, Bulgaria
Interests: public finance; fiscal decentralization; debt management; financial analysis; human capital; international finance

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Guest Editor
Institute of Economics and Politics, University of National and World Economy, 1000 Sofia, Bulgaria
Interests: public finance; public administration; sustainable development; local government budgeting; strategic planning

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Empirical public finance is a rapidly developing field of scientific knowledge that bridges the gap between theoretical public economics and the implementation of public policies in the real world. Following years of multiple pulsating crises, unprecedented fiscal challenges are observed owing to recovery from the pandemic, peak energy prices, local military conflicts, climate change, and demographic challenges. All of these factors require rigorous empirical analysis of the mechanisms of public finance. Traditional public finance theory, although precise in its theoretical foundations, often suffers from empirical failure. The clash of theoretical axioms with the realities of practice is rich in evidence.

This Special Issue of JRFM seeks to push the boundaries of empirical public finance by bringing together cutting-edge research that combines sophisticated econometric methods with new data sources to address fundamental questions in public finance. We are particularly interested in research that employs quantitative and qualitative methodologies, explores new data sets, and provides causal evidence on the effectiveness of fiscal policies, tax reforms, public spending programs, and institutional sustainability and efficiency.

We encourage submissions that address the fundamental questions of public sector economics regarding allocation, distribution, and stabilization through the lens of modern empirical methods. We particularly welcome papers that employ novel identification strategies, exploit unique institutional features, or use innovative data sources to shed light on classic and contemporary public finance issues. We encourage findings about the effectiveness of fiscal policy, supported by solid empirical evidence and sound theoretical reasoning.

This Special Issue seeks the “philosopher’s stone” of empirical public finance—research that successfully combines methodological rigor with policy relevance, providing both theoretical insights and practical guidance for designing fiscal policy in the 21st century based on a balance between governments, businesses, and households leading to a sustainable economic growth.

Prof. Dr. Andrey Zahariev
Prof. Dr. Borislav Dimitrov Borisov
Guest Editors

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Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 1600 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • empirical public finance
  • fiscal policy analysis
  • tax policy evaluation
  • public expenditure effectiveness
  • causal inference in public economics
  • institutional economics
  • behavioral public finance
  • fiscal federalism
  • fiscal decentralization

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Published Papers (9 papers)

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Research

13 pages, 337 KB  
Article
Fiscal Decentralization as a Strategic Risk-Management Tool: Institutional Threshold Effects on EU Output Volatility
by Ahmet Münir Gökmen
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2026, 19(5), 322; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19050322 - 28 Apr 2026
Viewed by 208
Abstract
This study examines whether fiscal decentralization operates as a strategic macroeconomic risk-management instrument and whether its effectiveness depends on institutional quality. Using a balanced panel of 27 European Union member states over 2008–2023, a composite fiscal decentralization index combining expenditure and revenue autonomy [...] Read more.
This study examines whether fiscal decentralization operates as a strategic macroeconomic risk-management instrument and whether its effectiveness depends on institutional quality. Using a balanced panel of 27 European Union member states over 2008–2023, a composite fiscal decentralization index combining expenditure and revenue autonomy is constructed, and a dynamic specification is estimated using a two-step System-GMM estimator. Output volatility is measured as a five-year rolling standard deviation of real GDP growth. The results indicate that fiscal decentralization exhibits a statistically significant effect on volatility whose direction depends on governance quality. Institutional quality directly reduces volatility, and the interaction between decentralization and institutional quality is negative and highly significant. A critical institutional threshold of 1.865 (WGI estimate scale), above which decentralization reduces output volatility, is identified. These findings indicate that decentralization functions as a conditional risk-management mechanism embedded within institutional capacity. The results provide policy-relevant insights into EU fiscal architecture design in an era of recurrent macroeconomic shocks. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Applied Public Finance and Fiscal Analysis)
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34 pages, 3026 KB  
Article
House Price Determinants: Evidence from Bulgaria as a New Eurozone Member State
by Andrey Zahariev, Galina Zaharieva, Larysa Shaulska and Mykhaylo Oryekhov
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2026, 19(4), 261; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19040261 - 3 Apr 2026
Viewed by 709
Abstract
This study examines the relationship between house prices and the factors driving their growth during the transition from a long-standing currency board regime to Eurozone membership. The main objective is to identify and quantify the key factors explaining the variation in house price [...] Read more.
This study examines the relationship between house prices and the factors driving their growth during the transition from a long-standing currency board regime to Eurozone membership. The main objective is to identify and quantify the key factors explaining the variation in house price growth in Bulgaria under conditions of prolonged currency convergence. The study applies a set of econometric techniques, including stationarity tests (ADF and KPSS), diagnostic checks for normality, serial correlation and heteroscedasticity, and robustness checks. The study is based on 40 quarterly observations covering the period 2015Q4–2025Q3 and 48 selected predictors of the General house price index. The final ARIMAX(0,2,1) model is estimated using second-differenced data. The model includes a first-order moving average component and three exogenous regressors: the owner-occupiers’ housing expenditures, the actual rentals for housing in Bulgaria and the homeowners’ utility expenses. The model explains 87% of the variation in house price acceleration, with a comparatively low mean squared error. The diagnostic analysis confirms model adequacy. The three exogenous regressors are statistically significant at the 1% level with strong and stable effects on house price dynamics. No statistically significant relationship is found for the set of traditional macroeconomic, demographic, financial, and sectoral factors. The results show that during Bulgaria’s transition from a currency board to the Eurozone, the sustained house price growth was driven by country-specific factors. The three statistically significant determinants of the house price acceleration in Bulgaria reflect, respectively, the active investment behaviour of homeowners in improving existing properties, the rational assessment by housing market participants of the balance between mortgage and rental payments, and the burden of utility and maintenance costs borne by owners and tenants, depending on property size and energy efficiency. The first factor is most influential for homeowners, the second for tenants, and the third has a similarly significant impact on both groups. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Applied Public Finance and Fiscal Analysis)
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40 pages, 907 KB  
Article
The Silver Economy and Fiscal Outcomes in Aging Europe: A Governance-Conditioned Panel Analysis
by Ralitsa Veleva
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2026, 19(3), 212; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19030212 - 12 Mar 2026
Viewed by 770
Abstract
Population aging is widely regarded as a major fiscal risk for European welfare states and a central challenge to long-term fiscal sustainability. The article critically reexamines the deterministic assumption by assessing whether the fiscal implications of demographic aging in the European Union (EU) [...] Read more.
Population aging is widely regarded as a major fiscal risk for European welfare states and a central challenge to long-term fiscal sustainability. The article critically reexamines the deterministic assumption by assessing whether the fiscal implications of demographic aging in the European Union (EU) are mechanically driven or conditioned by policy context and institutional capacity. Using panel data for the EU-27 over the period 2014–2024, the study employs a two-way fixed-effects framework and interaction models to examine the relationship between demographic aging and key fiscal outcomes, including public pension expenditures, total social protection spending, and the general government balance. Furthermore, the analysis examines whether indicators associated with the silver economy, such as employment at older ages and digital inclusion, condition the fiscal effects of aging within countries over time. The results suggest that demographic aging does not exhibit a statistically significant association with pension or social protection expenditures once institutional heterogeneity and common shocks are controlled. In contrast to deterministic expectations, aging is positively associated with general government balance, suggesting the presence of policy-mediated fiscal adjustment dynamics rather than automatic fiscal deterioration. Interaction estimates further indicate that digital inclusion among older cohorts conditions the relationship between demographic aging and fiscal balance, while silver economy indicators do not display robust standalone fiscal effects. These findings should be interpreted as evidence of policy-mediated adjustment dynamics rather than as causal estimates of demographic effects. Building on these findings, the article advances a conceptual interpretation of the aging–fiscal nexus in which demographic pressures interact with institutional adaptation and policy capacity. Fiscal sustainability under demographic aging emerges as a policy-mediated outcome that may reflect broader institutional and governance contexts, rather than demographic structure alone. While governance quality is not directly estimated as an observable variable, the analysis interprets fiscal outcomes within a governance-conditioned institutional framework that emphasizes policy mediation rather than deterministic demographic effects. The findings contribute to ongoing debates on fiscal sustainability in aging societies by demonstrating that fiscal outcomes in the European Union are best understood as institutionally conditioned and policy-mediated rather than mechanically driven by demographic structure alone. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Applied Public Finance and Fiscal Analysis)
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13 pages, 961 KB  
Article
Comparative Analysis of Risks Identified in Scientific Research, Strategic Documents, and Media Publications in Bulgaria
by Borislav Borissov and Yanko Hristozov
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2026, 19(3), 179; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19030179 - 3 Mar 2026
Viewed by 478
Abstract
The acceleration of economic, technological, geopolitical and environmental processes has significantly increased the exposure of national economies to interconnected financial and non-financial risks. While global financial risks and corporate risks have been extensively analyzed, significant national risks—such as fiscal sustainability, debt vulnerability, systemic [...] Read more.
The acceleration of economic, technological, geopolitical and environmental processes has significantly increased the exposure of national economies to interconnected financial and non-financial risks. While global financial risks and corporate risks have been extensively analyzed, significant national risks—such as fiscal sustainability, debt vulnerability, systemic inefficiency and investment uncertainty—are often treated fragmentarily or descriptively within conventional sovereign risk frameworks. This article offers a comparative analytical approach to identifying national financial and non-financial risks by examining the degree of convergence and divergence between risks identified in four different sources: national expert scientific studies, World Economic Forum global risk assessments, strategic development documents of Bulgaria and national media coverage. Using expert data, structured content analysis, a modified media visibility index, and nonparametric statistical tests for linked binary data, the study identifies risks that are consistently recognized across sources and therefore pose an increased threat to financial stability, as well as risks that remain systematically underestimated despite their potential fiscal and macroeconomic consequences. The results show that cross-source comparison significantly improves the detection of national risks and reveals blind spots in fiscal planning, investment, and social policy. This article contributes to the literature on the management of risks with a direct negative financial effect or with an indirect financial impact on the national economy by positioning national risk identification within a governance-oriented, multi-source analytical framework. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Applied Public Finance and Fiscal Analysis)
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30 pages, 563 KB  
Article
A Panel Study on the Determinants of Profitability of Bulgarian Commercial Banks
by Petar Ilkov Peshev
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2026, 19(2), 156; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19020156 - 19 Feb 2026
Viewed by 791
Abstract
This study examines the determinants of profitability for 21 Bulgarian commercial banks over the period from the first quarter of 2007 to the first quarter of 2025, using financial statement data. Bank profitability is measured by return on assets (ROA) and return on [...] Read more.
This study examines the determinants of profitability for 21 Bulgarian commercial banks over the period from the first quarter of 2007 to the first quarter of 2025, using financial statement data. Bank profitability is measured by return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) and modeled within a panel autoregressive distributed lag (PMG-ARDL) framework. The empirical specification combines bank-specific and macroeconomic variables, allowing for the identification of both long-run equilibrium relationships and short-run bank-level dynamics. The long-term results indicate that the net interest margin (NIM), net fee and commission margin (NFM), government bond yields, the growth of the gross domestic product (GDP), and the loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) positively affect profitability. On the other hand, higher unemployment, rising housing prices, increased loan loss impairments, and the ratio of cash holdings to total assets reduce profitability. The findings provide policy-relevant insights for bank management, regulators, and macroprudential authorities regarding efficiency, income diversification, and credit risk management. The findings facilitate a more comprehensive assessment of banking sector resilience and provide a foundation for the development and refinement of macroprudential and supervisory policy measures. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Applied Public Finance and Fiscal Analysis)
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23 pages, 360 KB  
Article
Analysis of the Financial Markets in the Bulgarian Agricultural Sector
by Lyubomir Lyubenov and Byulent Idirizov
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2026, 19(2), 100; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19020100 - 2 Feb 2026
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 645
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to examine the interrelationships between public and corporate finance, gross value added (GVA), and the output of the agricultural sector in Bulgaria. The value of crop production shows a strong correlation with all financial indicators of the [...] Read more.
The purpose of this study is to examine the interrelationships between public and corporate finance, gross value added (GVA), and the output of the agricultural sector in Bulgaria. The value of crop production shows a strong correlation with all financial indicators of the agricultural sector in Bulgaria—public, corporate, and total—as well as with corporate finance in the national economy. The value of the final output of the agricultural sector in Bulgaria also exhibits a strong correlation with national corporate finance, the corporate finance of the agricultural sector, and this sector’s total financial resources, both public and private. The regression analysis demonstrates that public funding plays a leading role in mobilising private capital in the agricultural sector. A strong dependency is observed between state support, corporate lending, and total financial resources, confirming that public funds promote trust and stimulate investment activity. Crop production is identified as the structural driver of productivity and gross value added (GVA) of the agricultural sector in Bulgaria. However, excessive public subsidies may reduce its efficiency. Private loans—particularly agricultural credits—are emerging as a key mechanism for transforming the potential of the agricultural sector into actual growth. The regression models indicate the possibility that 1 billion BGN in loans lead to the creation of more than 2 billion BGN worth of crop production output, and more than 6 billion BGN in terms of final products. These findings justify that the sustainable development of the agricultural sector in Bulgaria is based on a balanced interaction between public financing and active private investment. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Applied Public Finance and Fiscal Analysis)
16 pages, 472 KB  
Article
The Chinese Government Auditing and Green Finance: The Mediating Role of Fiscal Execution Efficiency
by Jifang Chen, Aidi Ahmi and Zakiyah Sharif
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2026, 19(1), 17; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19010017 - 26 Dec 2025
Viewed by 821
Abstract
Amidst the dual constraints of insufficient resource supply and an imperfect institutional environment hindering the development of green finance in China, the Chinese government has actively advanced reforms to its government audit system to enhance fiscal execution efficiency. This study utilizes panel data [...] Read more.
Amidst the dual constraints of insufficient resource supply and an imperfect institutional environment hindering the development of green finance in China, the Chinese government has actively advanced reforms to its government audit system to enhance fiscal execution efficiency. This study utilizes panel data covering 30 provinces in China from 2010 to 2021 and employs Hausman regression to assess the impact of Chinese government auditing on green finance. Furthermore, it empirically examines the mediating effects of fiscal revenue and expenditure execution efficiency on the relationship between the two. The empirical results indicate that Chinese government auditing has a significant impact on enhancing the development level of green finance. However, fiscal expenditure execution efficiency exhibits a significant full mediating effect. Correspondingly, the role of fiscal revenue execution efficiency is limited, exhibiting only a partial mediating effect. These findings highlight the institutional advantages of Chinese government auditing in promoting the development of green finance by improving fiscal execution efficiency. This study integrates government auditing, green finance, and fiscal execution efficiency into a unified analytical framework, enriching the theoretical system of green finance driving mechanisms. The research results also provide policy support for local governments in China to enhance their auditing models and strengthen fiscal execution capabilities, thereby improving the overall effectiveness of green finance development. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Applied Public Finance and Fiscal Analysis)
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21 pages, 693 KB  
Article
Specific Features of the Application of IFRS 17—Valuation of Insurance Contracts and Profit and Loss Management
by Radostin Vazov and Zhelyo Hristozov
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2025, 18(12), 706; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm18120706 - 11 Dec 2025
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2775
Abstract
The scope of this topic stems from the change in insurance companies and the subsequent transition to IFRS 17. The new code came into force on 1 January 2023. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to compare the two standards in terms [...] Read more.
The scope of this topic stems from the change in insurance companies and the subsequent transition to IFRS 17. The new code came into force on 1 January 2023. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to compare the two standards in terms of methodology and process logic. To highlight the new aspects of the new standard and to present the author’s view that IFRS 17 provides more opportunities for timely action and intervention by company management in the processes and improvement of results compared to IFRS 4. To examine how the application of the standard has affected the strategy for recognising, measuring, and reporting liabilities under insurance contracts, as well as financial results in the insurance sector in China. The study uses a mixed approach, combining a comparison of IFRS 4 and IFRS 17 with examples illustrating actual practice in the sector to examine differences in accounting treatment. It cites examples from European and Asian traders to assess how things will develop in practice. Contribution: This study adds new evidence on the impact of IFRS 17 on value and profit management. Our study found that the new standard introduces a single model for measuring insurance contracts, which significantly increases transparency and comparability in financial statements. Furthermore, one of its most important findings is that, with the equalisation of the margin on contractual services and the recognition of profits over the entire term of insurance contracts, the balance sheets for all years will show more consistent reports of profits and losses. It also calls for attention to the challenges insurers met in developing cash flow discounting methods or putting the general measurement model into effect. Overall, the report found that search engine IFRS 17 has made comparability and transparency better while making suggestions to industry stakeholders about what problems came out when they were discovered afterwards. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Applied Public Finance and Fiscal Analysis)
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25 pages, 796 KB  
Article
Causality Between the Tax Burden of Direct Taxes and Economic Growth in European Union Countries with Proportional Taxation
by Angel Angelov and Velichka Nikolova
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2025, 18(11), 626; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm18110626 - 9 Nov 2025
Viewed by 1992
Abstract
The present study examines the relationship between economic growth and the tax burden that is formed as a result of income taxes. The main goal is to verify whether there is a link between these research variables in the long run and if [...] Read more.
The present study examines the relationship between economic growth and the tax burden that is formed as a result of income taxes. The main goal is to verify whether there is a link between these research variables in the long run and if this is confirmed, to analyze the manner in which these processes interact. The research applies a range of econometric techniques, including stationary tests, pairwise Granger causality test, Johansen cointegration test, impulse functions, and variance decompositions in order to investigate causality in the short- and long-term. The study is based on 49 observations and covers four European Union (EU) member states (Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Estonia), which continue to impose a proportional (flat) tax on personal and corporate income. The analysis relies on quarterly data for the period 2013Q1–2025Q1. The results obtained are quite heterogeneous, which can be explained by the significant differences in the tax policy pursued, as well as by a number of other features determining the growth of national economies. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Applied Public Finance and Fiscal Analysis)
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