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An Investigation into the Future Changes in Onset and Cessation of Rain and Their Variability over the Aswa Catchment, Uganda
Open AccessArticle

Impact of Climate and Land Use/Land Cover Change on the Water Resources of a Tropical Inland Valley Catchment in Uganda, East Africa

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Department of Geography, University of Bonn, Meckenheimer Allee 166, 53115 Bonn, Germany
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Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Climate Sciences, Makerere University, Kampala P.O. Box 7062, Uganda
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Department of Environment and Sustainability, DLR Project Management Agency, Heinrich-Konen-Straße 1, 53227 Bonn, Germany
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Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 76128 Karlsruhe, Germany
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Department of Geography, Kenyatta University, Nairobi P.O. Box 43844-00100, Kenya
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Climate 2020, 8(7), 83; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8070083
Received: 20 April 2020 / Revised: 22 June 2020 / Accepted: 24 June 2020 / Published: 29 June 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change and Water-Related Agricultural Risks)
The impact of climate and land use/land cover (LULC) change continues to threaten water resources availability for the agriculturally used inland valley wetlands and their catchments in East Africa. This study assessed climate and LULC change impacts on the hydrological processes of a tropical headwater inland valley catchment in Uganda. The hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to analyze climate and LULC change impacts on the hydrological processes. An ensemble of six regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were used for climate change assessment for historical (1976–2005) and future climate (2021–2050). Four LULC scenarios defined as exploitation, total conservation, slope conservation, and protection of headwater catchment were considered. The results indicate an increase in precipitation by 7.4% and 21.8% of the annual averages in the future under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Future wet conditions are more pronounced in the short rainy season than in the long rainy season. Flooding intensity is likely to increase during the rainy season with low flows more pronounced in the dry season. Increases in future annual averages of water yield (29.0% and 42.7% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) and surface runoff (37.6% and 51.8% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) relative to the historical simulations are projected. LULC and climate change individually will cause changes in the inland valley hydrological processes, but more pronounced changes are expected if the drivers are combined, although LULC changes will have a dominant influence. Adoption of total conservation, slope conservation and protection of headwater catchment LULC scenarios will significantly reduce climate change impacts on water resources in the inland valley. Thus, if sustainable climate-smart management practices are adopted, the availability of water resources for human consumption and agricultural production will increase. View Full-Text
Keywords: water resources; wetland-catchment nexus; SWAT model; climate change impacts; land use/land cover management water resources; wetland-catchment nexus; SWAT model; climate change impacts; land use/land cover management
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MDPI and ACS Style

Gabiri, G.; Diekkrüger, B.; Näschen, K.; Leemhuis, C.; van der Linden, R.; Majaliwa, J.-G.M.; Obando, J.A. Impact of Climate and Land Use/Land Cover Change on the Water Resources of a Tropical Inland Valley Catchment in Uganda, East Africa. Climate 2020, 8, 83. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8070083

AMA Style

Gabiri G, Diekkrüger B, Näschen K, Leemhuis C, van der Linden R, Majaliwa J-GM, Obando JA. Impact of Climate and Land Use/Land Cover Change on the Water Resources of a Tropical Inland Valley Catchment in Uganda, East Africa. Climate. 2020; 8(7):83. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8070083

Chicago/Turabian Style

Gabiri, Geofrey; Diekkrüger, Bernd; Näschen, Kristian; Leemhuis, Constanze; van der Linden, Roderick; Majaliwa, Jackson-Gilbert M.; Obando, Joy A. 2020. "Impact of Climate and Land Use/Land Cover Change on the Water Resources of a Tropical Inland Valley Catchment in Uganda, East Africa" Climate 8, no. 7: 83. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8070083

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