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Open AccessArticle

Surface Temperature Trend Estimation over 12 Sites in Guinea Using 57 Years of Ground-Based Data

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Laboratoire de l’Atmosphère et des Cyclones, UMR 8105, CNRS, Université de La Réunion, Météo-France, 97490 Réunion, France
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Centre de Recherche Scientifique de Conakry Rogbane, Conakry 1615, Guinea
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Direction Nationale de la Météorologie de Guinée, Conakry 566, Guinea
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School of Chemistry and Physics, University of KwaZulu Natal, Durban 4000, South Africa
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Department of Geography, University of Zululand, KwaDlangezwa 3886, South Africa
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Laboratoire Atmosphère, Milieux, Observations Spatiales/Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace, UVSQ Université Paris-Saclay, Sorbonne Université, CNRS, 78280 Guyancourt, France
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Climate 2020, 8(6), 68; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8060068
Received: 18 March 2020 / Revised: 25 May 2020 / Accepted: 27 May 2020 / Published: 31 May 2020
Trend-Run model was performed to estimate the trend in surface temperatures recorded at 12 sites in Guinea from 1960 to 2016 and to examine the contribution of each climate forcing. The coefficient of determination (R2) calculated varies between 0.60 and 0.90, it provides total information about the simulation capability of the model. The decadal trend values also calculated show an upward trend (between 0.04 °C ± 0.06 °C decade−1 and 0.21 °C ± 0.06 °C decade−1). In addition, forcings’ contributions were quantified, and the annual oscillation (AO) contribution is higher for most of the stations, followed by semiannual oscillation (SAO). Among the forcings, the tropical Northern Atlantic (TNA) contribution is greater than that of the sunspot number (SSN), Niño3.4 and Atlantic Niño (AN). Moreover, the Mann-Kendall test revealed a positive significant trend for all stations except at the Macenta site. Additionally, with sequential Mann-Kendall test, trend turning points were found only for the stations of Mamou, Koundara and Macenta at different dates. The temperature anomalies depict warming episodes (1970s, 1980s, 1984 and 1990s). Since then, the temperature is consistently increasing over the country. A significant warming has been shown, which might be further investigated using these models with additional contributing factors. View Full-Text
Keywords: temperature; climate forcings; trends; climate warming; Guinea temperature; climate forcings; trends; climate warming; Guinea
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Loua, R.T.; Bencherif, H.; Bègue, N.; Mbatha, N.; Portafaix, T.; Hauchecorne, A.; Sivakumar, V.; Bamba, Z. Surface Temperature Trend Estimation over 12 Sites in Guinea Using 57 Years of Ground-Based Data. Climate 2020, 8, 68.

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