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Climate 2019, 7(1), 11; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7010011

Analysis of Climate Change in the Caucasus Region: End of the 20th–Beginning of the 21st Century

1
Federal State Budgetary Institution «High-Mountain Geophysical Institute», Lenin av., 2, 360030 Nalchik, Russia
2
Institute of Computer Science and Problems of Regional Management, Kabardino-Balkarian Research Center, Russian Academy of Sciences, I. Armand str., 37а, 360000 Nalchik, Russia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 15 December 2018 / Revised: 29 December 2018 / Accepted: 4 January 2019 / Published: 10 January 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Variability and Change in the 21th Century)
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Abstract

The study of climate, in such a diverse climatic region as the Caucasus, is necessary in order to evaluate the influence of local factors on the formation of temperature and precipitation regimes in its various climatic zones. This study is based on the instrumental data (temperatures and precipitation) from 20 weather stations, located on the territory of the Caucasian region during 1961–2011. Mathematical statistics, trend analysis, and rescaled range Methods were used. It was found that the warming trend prevailed in all climatic zones, it intensified since the beginning of global warming (since 1976), while the changes in precipitation were not so unidirectional. The maximum warming was observed in the summer (on average by 0.3 °C/10 years) in all climatic zones. Persistence trends were investigated using the Hurst exponent H (range of variation 0–1), which showed a higher trend persistence of annual mean temperature changes (H = 0.8) compared to annual sum precipitations (H = 0.64). Spatial-correlation analysis performed for precipitations and temperatures showed a rapid decrease in the correlation between precipitations at various weather stations from R = 1 to R = 0.5, on a distance scale from 0 to 200 km. In contrast to precipitation, a high correlation (R = 1.0–0.7) was observed between regional weather stations temperatures at a distance scale from 0 to 1000 km, which indicates synchronous temperature changes in all climatic zones (unlike precipitation). View Full-Text
Keywords: temperature; precipitations; warming; Hurst exponent; persistence; spatial correlation; Caucasian region temperature; precipitations; warming; Hurst exponent; persistence; spatial correlation; Caucasian region
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).
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Tashilova, A.A.; Ashabokov, B.A.; Kesheva, L.A.; Teunova, N.V. Analysis of Climate Change in the Caucasus Region: End of the 20th–Beginning of the 21st Century. Climate 2019, 7, 11.

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