Forecasting Value-at-Risk under Different Distributional Assumptions
AbstractFinancial asset returns are known to be conditionally heteroskedastic and generally non-normally distributed, fat-tailed and often skewed. These features must be taken into account to produce accurate forecasts of Value-at-Risk (VaR). We provide a comprehensive look at the problem by considering the impact that different distributional assumptions have on the accuracy of both univariate and multivariate GARCH models in out-of-sample VaR prediction. The set of analyzed distributions comprises the normal, Student, Multivariate Exponential Power and their corresponding skewed counterparts. The accuracy of the VaR forecasts is assessed by implementing standard statistical backtesting procedures used to rank the different specifications. The results show the importance of allowing for heavy-tails and skewness in the distributional assumption with the skew-Student outperforming the others across all tests and confidence levels. View Full-Text
Share & Cite This Article
Braione, M.; Scholtes, N.K. Forecasting Value-at-Risk under Different Distributional Assumptions. Econometrics 2016, 4, 3.
Braione M, Scholtes NK. Forecasting Value-at-Risk under Different Distributional Assumptions. Econometrics. 2016; 4(1):3.Chicago/Turabian Style
Braione, Manuela; Scholtes, Nicolas K. 2016. "Forecasting Value-at-Risk under Different Distributional Assumptions." Econometrics 4, no. 1: 3.
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.