Fuzzy-Based MCDA Technique Applied in Multi-Risk Problems Involving Heatwave Risks in and Pandemic Scenarios

Assessing the increased impacts/risks of urban heatwaves generated by stressors such as a pandemic period, such as the one experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic, is complicated by the lack of comprehensive information that allows for an analytical determination of the alteration produced on climate risks/impacts. The assessment of the increased impacts/risks of urban heatwaves generated by stressors such as those due to the presence of a pandemic is complicated by the lack of comprehensive information that allows for the functional determination of the increased impacts/risks due to such stressors. On the other hand, it is essential for decision makers to understand the complex interactions between climate risks and the environmental and socioeconomic conditions generated by pandemics in an urban context, where specific restrictions on citizens’ livability are in place to protect their health. This study aims to address this need by proposing a fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making framework in a GIS environment that intuitively allows experts to assess the increase in heatwave risk factors for the population generated by pandemics. This assessment is accomplished by varying the values in the pairwise comparison matrices of the criteria that contribute to the construction of physical and socioeconomic vulnerability, exposure, and the hazard scenario. The framework was tested to assess heatwave impacts/risks on the population in the study area, which includes the municipalities of the metropolitan city of Naples, Italy, an urban area with high residential density where numerous summer heatwaves have been recorded over the last decade. The findings indicate a rise in impact/risks during pandemic times, particularly in municipalities with the greatest resident population density, situated close to Naples.