Exploring the Pirate Attack Process Risk along the Maritime Silk Road via Dynamic Bayesian Network Analysis
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Problem Description
2.1. Pirate Attack Process Risk along the Maritime Silk Road
2.2. Risk Mechanism of a Ship Being Attacked by Pirates
3. Model and Method
3.1. The Network Structure of Risk Analysis
3.2. Dynamic Bayesian Network Model
3.2.1. Bayesian Network
3.2.2. Model Parameter
3.3. Risk Value
4. Simulation and Results
4.1. Scenario Descriptions
4.2. Information Acquisition and Parameter Determination
4.3. Process Risk Analysis of Pirate Attacks
4.4. Sensitivity Analysis
5. Discussion
5.1. Process Risk of a Ship Being Attacked by Pirates along the Maritime Silk Road
5.2. The Realistic Situation of Pirate Attacks Risk along the Maritime Silk Road
5.3. Space-Time Characteristics of Pirate Attacks along the MSR
6. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Indicator Name | Explanations | Indicator State | References | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Level 1 indicator | Hazard | The higher the system hazard, the greater the risk of pirate attacks. | high; medium; low; | [27] |
Vulnerability and exposure | The higher the system vulnerability and exposure, the greater the risk of pirate attacks | high; medium; low; | [12,27] | |
Mitigation capacity | The higher the level of mitigation capacity, the lower the risk of pirate attacks | good; medium; poor; | [27] | |
Level 2 indicator | Natural conditions | Under adverse natural conditions, the initiative of pirate attacks tends to decrease. | favourable; normal; bad; | [1,4,13,30,31] |
Human-induced hazards | The situation of local pirates affects the level of risk. | high; medium; low; | [12,30] | |
Ship condition | When a ship malfunctions, it is more likely to become a target of pirate attacks. | good; moderate; poor; | [2,32] | |
Ship’s own risk | When the ship itself has sufficient attractiveness to pirates, the risk of being attacked by pirates increases compared to other ships. | high; medium; low; | [1,2,4,12,33] | |
The anti-piracy capability of the ship | When a ship has strong anti-piracy capabilities, the risk of being attacked by pirates will be reduced. | good; moderate; poor; | [12,33] | |
Naval support | This variable stands for the military response time (i.e., the time necessary to render assistance to the ship under threat). | t15; t30; morethant30; | [11,12,27,34] | |
Level 3 indicator | Wave | When the waves are larger, they will restrict the operation of boats used by pirates. The risk of a ship being attacked by pirates will be significantly reduced at this time. | normal; moderate; rough; | [2,26,30,31,33] |
Visibility | When the visibility is poor, ship lookouts may not detect pirate boats promptly, which makes it easier for pirates to approach and attack the ship. | good; moderate; poor; | [2,4,30] | |
Pirate Capability | The stronger the pirate’s capabilities, the greater the risk of being attacked and hijacked. | Strong; General; weak; | [12] | |
The situation of surrounding countries | Generally speaking, in a turbulent zone, many criminal factors will breed, and the occurrence likelihood of attacks from pirates will also increase greatly. | high; medium; low; | [10,11,12,35] | |
Ship maintenance degree | Ship maintenance is closely related to the safety and stability of vessels during their navigation on water. If effective management and maintenance are not carried out, it can lead to significant consequences. Therefore, ship maintenance is closely tied to the condition of the vessel. Once a vessel experiences malfunctions due to maintenance issues within pirate-infested areas, the risk of pirate attacks significantly increases compared to other vessels [36] | good; moderate; poor; | Experts | |
Ship Age | The older the ship is, the more passive and risky it is when facing pirate attacks. | less than 6; between 6 and 15; fifteen years and over; | [2,32] | |
Ship Type | Pirates prefer to attack high-value ships because they can bring higher profits, such as bulk carriers, oil tankers, and so on. | high; medium; low; | [2,10,11,12,32] | |
Freeboard | The lower the freeboard is, the lower the safety is, and the easier it is for pirates to board the ship, which increases the risk. | high; medium; low; | [1,4,12] | |
Speed | The probability of successful pirate attacks decreases significantly and the risk is lower when the ship can sail at a speed of 15 knots or higher. | fifteen knots and over; less than fifteen; at anchor; | [2,12,33] | |
Emergency management | The higher the emergency management capability of a ship is, the better its ability to handle pirate attacks in an orderly manner. Sometimes, the timely summoning of the crew or sounding alarms can reduce the risk of pirate attacks. | good; moderate; poor; | Experts | |
Anti-piracy measures | The timely implementation of anti-piracy measures, when a pirate attack occurs, plays a significant role in preventing pirate intrusion. | good; moderate; poor; | [1,4,33] | |
Armed security | When armed guards are present on board, pirates are more likely to abort their attacks, resulting in a lower risk of pirate attacks. | armed; unarmed; noGuards; | [8,11,33] | |
Level 4 indicator | Number of pirates | The greater the number of individuals involved in a pirate attack, the higher the risk posed to the targeted ship. | less than 5; between 5 and 10; 10 persons and over; | [10,12,33] |
Pirates’ weapons | The degree of advancement of pirate weapons determines their capabilities. Generally, the more advanced the weapons, the stronger the pirate’s abilities, and the greater the threat to ships. | guns and rocket-propelled grenades; knives; other; | [10,12,33] | |
Annual average times of pirate attacks in surrounding areas | The annual average times of pirate attacks in the surrounding area reflects the degree of piracy prevalence. The more frequent pirate attacks, the higher the risk of pirate attacks. | less than 5; between 5 and 30; 30 times and over; | [30,35] | |
Political situation in neighboring countries | In politically unstable countries, law enforcement may have loopholes, leading to an increase in criminal activities, which may increase the probability of pirate incidents to some extent. | extremely unstable; unstable; stable; | [10,11,12,30,35] | |
Economic situation of surrounding countries | Coastal countries are prone to developing forms of robbery similar to piracy in economically underdeveloped situations. | GDP less than 2500; GDP between 2500 and 6000; GDP 6000 and over; | [10,11,12,35] | |
Anti-piracy drill | Regularly organizing anti-piracy exercises for the crew can enhance their ability to respond to pirate incidents, thereby enabling them to promptly take effective measures to resist piracy. | good; moderate; poor; | [12,33] | |
Crew’s awareness of anti-piracy | Having a strong awareness of anti-piracy measures can effectively reduce the risk of pirate attacks. | good; moderate; poor; | Experts | |
Self-defense equipment and communication facilities | Ships generally equip themselves with certain self-defense devices such as water cannons, foam guns, alarm systems, etc., which can to some extent slow down or prevent pirate attacks and boarding. | good; moderate; poor; | [12,33] | |
Monitoring intensity | Frequent observation can facilitate the early detection of potential pirate threats, enabling ships to take preemptive measures. | frequent; moderate; infrequent; | [11] |
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Hu, X.; Xia, H.; Xuan, S.; Hu, S. Exploring the Pirate Attack Process Risk along the Maritime Silk Road via Dynamic Bayesian Network Analysis. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2023, 11, 1430. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11071430
Hu X, Xia H, Xuan S, Hu S. Exploring the Pirate Attack Process Risk along the Maritime Silk Road via Dynamic Bayesian Network Analysis. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering. 2023; 11(7):1430. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11071430
Chicago/Turabian StyleHu, Xiaoyue, Haibo Xia, Shaoyong Xuan, and Shenping Hu. 2023. "Exploring the Pirate Attack Process Risk along the Maritime Silk Road via Dynamic Bayesian Network Analysis" Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 11, no. 7: 1430. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11071430
APA StyleHu, X., Xia, H., Xuan, S., & Hu, S. (2023). Exploring the Pirate Attack Process Risk along the Maritime Silk Road via Dynamic Bayesian Network Analysis. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 11(7), 1430. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11071430