Next Article in Journal
Diagnostic Validity of Digital Imaging Fiber-Optic Transillumination (DIFOTI) and Near-Infrared Light Transillumination (NILT) for Caries in Dentine
Next Article in Special Issue
Estimation of the Transmission Risk of the 2019-nCoV and Its Implication for Public Health Interventions
Previous Article in Journal
Thromboembolic Events Are Independently Associated with Liver Stiffness in Patients with Fontan Circulation
Previous Article in Special Issue
Estimating the Unreported Number of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Cases in China in the First Half of January 2020: A Data-Driven Modelling Analysis of the Early Outbreak
 
Search for Articles:
Title / Keyword
Author / Affiliation
Journal
Article Type
 
 
Advanced Search
 
Section
Special Issue
Volume
Issue
Number
Page
Journals
JCM
Volume 9
Issue 2
10.3390/jcm9020419
jcm-logo
Submit to this Journal Review for this Journal Edit a Special Issue
► Article Menu

Article Menu

share announcement question_answer thumb_up
...
textsms
...
Editorial

The Rate of Underascertainment of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infection: Estimation Using Japanese Passengers Data on Evacuation Flights

by
Hiroshi Nishiura
1,2,*,
Tetsuro Kobayashi
1,
Yichi Yang
1,
Katsuma Hayashi
1,
Takeshi Miyama
3,
Ryo Kinoshita
1,
Natalie M. Linton
1,
Sung-mok Jung
1,
Baoyin Yuan
1,
Ayako Suzuki
1 and
Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov
1
1
Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan
2
Core Research for Evolutionary Science and Technology, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012, Japan
3
Osaka Institute of Public Health, Nakamichi 1-3-69, Higashinari, Osaka 537-0025, Japan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
J. Clin. Med. 2020, 9(2), 419; https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9020419
Received: 2 February 2020 / Accepted: 3 February 2020 / Published: 4 February 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Real Time Clinical and Epidemiological Investigations on Novel Coronavirus - Part I)
View Full-Text Download PDF

Abstract

From 29 to 31 January 2020, a total of 565 Japanese citizens were evacuated from Wuhan, China on three chartered flights. All passengers were screened upon arrival in Japan for symptoms consistent with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection and tested for presence of the virus. Assuming that the mean detection window of the virus can be informed by the mean serial interval (estimated at 7.5 days), the ascertainment rate of infection was estimated at 9.2% (95% confidence interval: 5.0, 20.0). This indicates that the incidence of infection in Wuhan can be estimated at 20,767 infected individuals, including those with asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic infections. The infection fatality risk (IFR)—the actual risk of death among all infected individuals—is therefore 0.3% to 0.6%, which may be comparable to Asian influenza pandemic of 1957–1958. View Full-Text
Keywords: epidemiology; ascertainment; diagnosis; travel; importation; statistical inference epidemiology; ascertainment; diagnosis; travel; importation; statistical inference
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited
SciFeed

Share and Cite

MDPI and ACS Style

Nishiura, H.; Kobayashi, T.; Yang, Y.; Hayashi, K.; Miyama, T.; Kinoshita, R.; Linton, N.M.; Jung, S.-m.; Yuan, B.; Suzuki, A.; Akhmetzhanov, A.R. The Rate of Underascertainment of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infection: Estimation Using Japanese Passengers Data on Evacuation Flights. J. Clin. Med. 2020, 9, 419. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9020419

AMA Style

Nishiura H, Kobayashi T, Yang Y, Hayashi K, Miyama T, Kinoshita R, Linton NM, Jung S-m, Yuan B, Suzuki A, Akhmetzhanov AR. The Rate of Underascertainment of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infection: Estimation Using Japanese Passengers Data on Evacuation Flights. Journal of Clinical Medicine. 2020; 9(2):419. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9020419

Chicago/Turabian Style

Nishiura, Hiroshi, Tetsuro Kobayashi, Yichi Yang, Katsuma Hayashi, Takeshi Miyama, Ryo Kinoshita, Natalie M. Linton, Sung-mok Jung, Baoyin Yuan, Ayako Suzuki, and Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov. 2020. "The Rate of Underascertainment of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infection: Estimation Using Japanese Passengers Data on Evacuation Flights" Journal of Clinical Medicine 9, no. 2: 419. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9020419

Find Other Styles
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Metrics

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Back to TopTop