Technical Suitability, Conflict, Governance, and Socio-Environmental Sensitivity in Onshore Wind Siting: A GIS-MCDA Framework Applied to Colombia

This study develops a GIS-based multicriteria decision analysis framework to assess the territorial suitability of onshore wind energy in Colombia. The proposed approach combines technical and socio-environmental suitability modelling with territorial interpretation based on conflict and governance, moving beyond conventional siting models focused mainly on wind resource availability and infrastructure proximity. The technical assessment included wind speed, wind power density, terrain slope, land cover, land use, and proximity to electrical grids, main roads, settlements, and water bodies. In addition, a National Conflict Index and a National Governance Index were constructed to represent broader territorial conditions that may affect project implementation. Quantitative variables, including wind speed, wind power density, terrain slope, and distance-based criteria, were transformed onto a common suitability scale using linear fuzzy membership functions, whereas qualitative variables, including land cover and land use, were incorporated through categorical reclassification. The National Conflict Index and National Governance Index were first constructed using CRITIC to obtain objective weights for their internal variables. Subsequently, the final onshore wind suitability criteria were weighted through the linear Best–Worst Method based on expert judgment. The standardized suitability layers and corresponding BWM-derived weights were integrated through weighted spatial overlay to generate a national suitability map, while the conflict and governance indices were used to interpret the territorial conditions associated with the resulting suitable areas. The results show a highly selective territorial pattern, with the most favorable areas concentrated mainly in La Guajira (1286.09 km²) and Cesar (574.45 km²), and more fragmented secondary opportunities in Nariño, Boyacá, Norte de Santander, Cundinamarca, Atlántico, and Magdalena. Three territorial intervention scenarios were identified: priority intervention, complementary or selective development, and low relative priority. The main contribution of the study is the articulation of a BWM-weighted technical and socio-environmental suitability model with CRITIC-based conflict and governance indices, offering a replicable framework to support strategic planning and public policy decisions for onshore wind deployment in Colombia.